Agents of Virtue

There was a place called Europe...

2012-02-17T09:00:00.000+02:00

The Eurozone problems are getting uglier by the day. While German politicians have consistently missed – to use Sarkozy’s phrase – multiple opportunities to shut up, Greece is actively engaged in reminding everyone of German bullying tendencies by bringing up events that took place some 80 years ago. The latest comment from German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble might not have been taken quite so badly in Greece if it originated from a country with a less unfortunate (for the rest of Europe) aggressive history. Even Italy, which has implemented the same system Mr. Schäuble has suggested, would have been a better source. At least the Greeks could ignore an idea from Rome.

The suggestion to postpone elections and install a technocrat government is a distinction without a difference from the previous floating balloon out of Berlin that Greece give up its rights to manage its economy to someone in Brussels. The fact that Brussels was complicit in allowing Greece to play fast and loose with its economy so long as times were good doesn't bode well for the idea - but that's another story.

However, the venomous recent exchanges show that there is no “Europe” in Europe. Citizens in Germany, France, Italy and the other 24 EU members simply do not think of themselves as European first. Which is why Greece will eventually default and leave the Eurozone – paving the way for the slow motion economic and political unraveling of the EU unless a new approach is taken very, very soon. In addition, the concept of installing unelected technocrats to run, at a minimum, the economic policies of a nation has been tried before and didn’t go too well by the time it ended in 1991.

Russia's Fleet Returns

2012-02-10T07:47:00.000+02:00

The Kuznetsov is the flagship of the Russian navy. Although looks should never determine substance, I have to say that she looks pretty pathetic. Plus, she's making too much smoke - a sign the engines are not very efficient. The photo shows a Royal Navy frigate (a type about to be retired, I am told) shadowing the carrier as it passes through the English Channel on the way home from Syria.

Time to Cut the Egyptian Cord

2012-02-09T09:02:00.000+02:00

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I have refrained from commenting on the US-Egyptian relationship breakdown which accelerated with the crackdown by Egypt on NGOs (only two were direct US NGOs) since, frankly, I thought it would blow-over. Too much money involved, you see. Plus, I have never been comfortable with either NDI or their Republican counterpart, IRI. Although they both provide open-door training for any existing or nascent political organization, many governments resent what they consider interference with internal politics. This is particularly true for governments that are not particularly interested in teaching people how to organize – like Russia and Ukraine. Also, I happen to know that in some countries both NDI and IRI tend to provide more support to the more liberal organizations over the ones in power. This is a result of the nature of the situation and not necessarily a deliberate policy, but it is rarely viewed like that by the ones in power. Nevertheless, they were not the only ones to be closed down and had their staffs arrested by the Egyptian police. Anyone seen as voicing an opinion against SCAF or receiving grants from foreign countries was targeted.

It is time to end the charade. First, we know that the Minister of International Cooperation, Fayza Aboul Naga, has been and remains aggressively opposed to foreign aid – particularly American foreign aid. She is against any type of NGO that does not support her opinions and party line. The positions taken by these sorts have always been to characterize groups seen as challenging the government as promoting the overthrow of the state. To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, a country doesn’t need to stay where it is not wanted. If a beneficiary decides that the relationship is not important enough to maintain, it is not in the interests of the US (or anyone else, for that matter) to insist otherwise.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces which controls Egypt has no intention of fulfilling the hopes of those in Tahrir Square. They are genetically wired to prevent the type of freedom and democracy that thousands rallied for last year. As I have said in previous posts, the Egyptian chapter of the Arab Spring did not produce regime change. It removed one man from power and only when the military felt it was necessary.

In payment for the peace treaty with Israel, the US gives Egypt $1.3 billion in military assistance alone. Take it away and use it elsewhere. The choices are pretty extensive – including Tunisia, Morocco and a good deal of sub-Sahara. More than 70% of the Egyptian people don’t want any American aid largely because of the strings attached, like keeping Camp David peace treaty intact. But they are not going to war with Israel again – largely because 1) the military can’t afford it and 2) the military knows it would lose. The US should not even try to change the direction of a cratered relationship which is getting worse by the day. The US needs to get its people out and speak against the policies of the government against their indigenous NGOs; but it need not spend billions in assistance to buy friendship, especially when that friendship is not reciprocated.

Egypt no longer holds a leadership position for Arabs and Muslims in the region. That has fallen to Qatar and Turkey – both of which have strong economies, don’t need foreign aid and have shown the type of leadership that can only be dreamt of in Cairo.

Merkel to Campaign for Sarkozy?

2012-02-06T08:25:00.001+02:00

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Does anybody else think that this is going to end badly? I am sure that the French will be celebrating in the streets that the Germans are giving them voting advice.

The odds are that Sarkozy is going to lose despite the additional 500,000 Armenian diaspora votes he's secured by limiting freedom of speech (not to mention, thought). Has Germany considered the consequential reaction of the winners?

Grabbing Gibraltar - whether the residents like it or not....

2012-02-03T10:06:00.000+02:00

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This is sort of funny. Why do nations want territory (which they handed over by treaty 300 years ago) where none of the people living there want them?

Oh, and incidentally, Spain should not stop there.

If the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) is such an unfair agreement, then Belgium would need to be returned to Spain as well. Spain should also be reminded that it has its own colony in Morocco.

EU - The Great Unravelling

2012-02-01T09:27:00.013+02:00

Not that it has escaped notice, but the EU and the Eurozone are unraveling at an alarming pace. With the multiple “last opportunity” summits, electoral pronouncements by soon-to-be-unemployed Nicholas Sarkozy, and utter intransigence in Berlin, the EU is headed into another recession while simultaneously showing effectively to the world how incapable it is of taking any new direction in economic policy. Most of the frozen dialogue is designed to save Germany – which would crash and burn should it adopt any sort of fiscal austerity it so easily demands of others in order to maintain its export driven economy which accounts for about 40% of its GDP.

Adding to the economic insanity promoted by Berlin, is an ECB which is focused like a laser on inflation. News flash to Frankfurt – inflation is not even a looming threat on the horizon. Unemployment (now having risen to 10.3% - 20% among youth) is and represents the TGV (in the US otherwise known as the 5 o’clock express) heading straight at everyone. Frankfurt, under the ever watchful eye of Berlin, is following policies established by Herbert Hoover and is the opposite of the actions taken by every other central bank in the world. It’s not too fine a point, I guess, to note that France, tied as it is to whatever the current economic policy whim is at the ECB and the Euro, lost its credit rating of AAA while the UK – not in the best economic condition and not in the Eurozone – did not. And no, S&P is not part of some Anglo-American conspiracy to attack the Euro as some German and EC representatives have claimed.

And just in case the technocrats in Brussels or the great deciders in Berlin and Paris think the EU or the Eurozone is a popular place to be these days, 70% of Czechs oppose joining the Euro; 49% in Lithuania (43% are pro-euro); and in Poland only 16% support joining the Euro. Oh, and to cap the pyramid of euro-skeptics, almost 80% of Norwegians don’t want to join the EU. Paris can stop worrying about 8% annual growth rate Turkey.

Now last week, with the unfortunate idea to abolish nations who don’t comply with their austerity requirements, Germany and the ECB may have alarmed Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to the point of permanent alienation. The fact that this idea arose in Germany was not ideal PR for some rather obvious 20^th century reasons.

Germany is not going to let the ECB do what it must and abandon its expansionary-austerity program – one of the more stupid ideas of the hard line technocrats in Brussels. But it has now been hoisted on its own petard. Historically, Berlin actually did not want other nations to indulge in fiscal prudence because they have an interest in promoting consumption and demand for their exports. The currency union allowed other countries to get credit at much lower rates so they would have more to spend. Germany encouraged this spending to absorb exports and cannot now have it both ways.

The fanciful idea that somehow Greece deceived everyone is absurd. If any deception existed, Germany deliberately ignored reality for its own benefit. Whether the Eurozone begins to break up is an open question. Certainly, Greece would be better off outside the Eurozone. Germany cannot overplay its hand and the pre-Cambrian thinking of the Brussels-Frankfurt-Berlin axis needs to be radically changed or it will be changed for them.

Senegal Contracts the African Disease

2012-01-29T11:35:00.000+02:00

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The president of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, was elected in 1999 in what was a free and fair vote. He was reelected in 2007 shortly after which Parliament amended the constitution to limit terms to two. He has now convinced the highest court to allow him to stand for a third term while simultaneously preventing the head of the opposition from being a candidate. This is variation on a theme in Africa. Those in power hate to give it up and will do anything to remain in their positions. He happens also to be grooming his son to succeed him.

Senegal has now erupted in violence. Another stable democracy (which happens to be Muslim) has become problematic in Africa. Pity.

Germany Pushes the Edge - and Loses

2012-01-29T11:10:00.000+02:00

Yesterday's revelations that Germany had demanded that Greece surrender its sovereignty to a EU imperial governor again shows that Germany considers itself the ruler of the Eurozone, if not all the EU. The arrogance - aside from the sheer stupidity which is another matter - should be a wake up call to Italy, Spain and Ireland that as long as they remain "not German" the EU will not fully accept their roles or input. The Greek reaction was understandably harsh to this suspension of democracy to save the Euro.

The fact of the matter is that Greece is bankrupt. It does not have a liquidity problem. It is bankrupt and should leave the Eurozone. This would create a good deal a disruption, but for Greece it is a necessary step if it (and countries like it) are not continually subjected to German visions of economic genius which is geared solely to protecting the German export driven economy. Greece needs to have its own currency again.

Additionally, the German position which seems to rest solely on austerity and no growth, is in danger of sinking the entire EU. The Hooverism of Merkel and her party is going to destroy the economies of Europe - except for Germany.

Germany - and France at times - have aggressively pushed the concept of austerity-for-all. At the same time, the ECB has been obsessed with inflation. The combination is a recipe for a disaster and will not solve the debt crises.

I'm glad I'm not paid in Euro.

Ricky the Perry - Deeper into the Stupid

2012-01-18T10:24:00.002+02:00

Image by DonkeyHotey via Flickr

Further to the post below, Rick Perry is now wallowing in his own stupid. On CNNs "The Situation Room" hosted by Wolf Blitzer, he goes beyond his initial stupid of saying that Turkey was run by Islamic extremists to now advocating that it be kicked out of NATO and that the US should not only, not have any relationship with Turkey, but that Turkey owes the US an explanation. This mouth breathing knuckle dragger is symbolic of the conservative Christian movement in the US. No country owes the US any sort of "explanation" - least of all a strong US ally like Turkey.

He then talks about honor killings (a practice in some groups in Turkey, but also in Afghanistan, Egypt and that great ally of the US, Pakistan) as if it is official Turkish policy. These honor killings are illegal in Turkey and the state prosecutes its practitioners.

He thinks the US provides foreign aid to Turkey? Well, if you consider mult-million dollar arms sales as aid, I guess to the galactically stupid he is correct. Turkish troops fight together with US troops in Afghanistan. More to the point, can anyone identify the single instance that Israeli troops ever fought alongside the US military. And yet they get to dictate US foreign policy in the Middle East.

He wants to "deal" with Turkey, Syria and Iran? Wise up moron - Article 5 of the NATO treaty says that all members will treat an attack on one as an attack on all.

Rick Perry is a monumental dope and dumber than a bag of hammers who should go home to his country – otherwise known as Texas – and crawl back under his rock. I, for one, am all for secessionist sympathies in Texas. That way all of them would need visas, the US military could close all its bases and, best of all, the Cowboys could no longer be called "Americas Team".

Rick Perry - Darling of the Right

2012-01-17T09:20:00.000+02:00

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Is Rick Perry dumber than a bag of hammers?

YES

Rick Perry said in Monday’s South Carolina debate that Turkey may have been taken over by “Islamic terrorists” based on their ruling Islamic party. The answer came in response to a question over whether Turkey should remain a NATO ally, which Perry said was a conversation worth having.

“Obviously when you have a country that is being ruled by what many would perceive to be Islamic terrorists, when you start seeing that type of activity against their own citizens, then, yes,” he said. “Not only is it time for us to have a conversation about whether or not they belong…but it’s time for the United states, we look at their foreign aid, to go to zero with it.”

This level of ignorance – reflected in his and other right wing tea party activists – is simply too astoundingly stupid to measure.

Ten Events in Iran's Nuclear Program

2012-01-08T08:54:00.000+02:00

This is a guest post by Shelly Mirriam, a science student and creator of www.mastersinenvironmentalscience.org, an objective source for students looking to find information on Environmental Science.

The issue of a nuclear Iran is a complex and touchy subject that will no doubt be a huge topic of debate during the upcoming US election cycle. But with both sides arguing frightening scenarios, it can all be a little confusing. To help get a better understanding of it, we have included ten key events from 2002 on during which Iran has been pursuing its nuclear program which began in the 1950s. Keep in mind that Iran has 16 known nuclear facilities and insists that they are for peaceful purposes. Iran is also a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

2002 – The Russians resume construction of Iran’s first nuclear facility in Bushehr which began under the Shah under contract with German companies and help from the Ford administration in the US.

2003 – The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspects Bushehr, as well as the newly revealed enrichment and heavy water facilities at Natanz and Arak, for any sign of nuclear weapon development and finds no evidence.

2004 – The IAEA rebukes Iran for failing to fully cooperate with their investigations, and Iran agrees to voluntarily and temporarily suspend uranium enrichment (enrichment is not a violation of the NPT).

2005 - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wins presidential election in Iran and Iran resumes uranium enrichment but is found in non-compliance with the Safeguards Agreement by the IAEA.

2006 – Iran announces it has successfully developed enriched uranium to 3.5% (over 20% is considered weapons grade while 90% is used to produce nuclear weapons) despite IAEA protests and in violation of UN resolution 1696. UN Security Council votes for sanctions (UNSC Resolution 1737), pushing Iran to speed up uranium enrichment.

2007 – President Ahmadinejad claims he can produce nuclear fuel on an “industrial scale”. After more UN violations by Iran, U.S. announces toughest sanctions on Iran in 30 years.

2008 – Iran tests several missiles and claims to be able to launch one into space. Russia refuses to impose further sanctions on Iran.

2009 – Germany and several UN Council Members offer Iran the opportunity to enrich their uranium abroad. Iran rejects the proposal as political and announces plans for further facilities.

2010 – Turkey and Brazil offer a plan for enrichment abroad but the US and certain EU countries do not agree with a plan which they say is too limited. A November IAEA report says Iran has 28 centrifuge cascades that are now enriching uranium up to 19.8%.

2011 – Recent IAEA reports suggest that Iran is working on nuclear weaponry. The IAEA found explosive containment facilities and concluded that Iran was attempting to develop nuclear weapon capability.

The complexity of the issue is much more than can be summarized by these ten milestones. However, given the recent escalation in rhetoric regarding the Straits of Hormuz, Iranian naval exercises in the region and the Western response, it is hoped that readers will look more in depth into how we arrived at the state we find ourselves.

.org/>Shelly Mirriam is a science student and also writes for Masters in Environmental Science which helps students find the right environmental science degree.

In the Land of the Galactically Stupid

2011-12-29T08:15:00.000+02:00

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This is a foreign policy blog – so I just could not resist:

“Every barrel of oil that comes out of those sands in Canada is a barrel of oil that we don’t have to buy from a foreign source”

Rick Perry, POTUS Wanabe in Clarinda, Iowa

Note well: This got a huge round of applause from the audience.

Germany = EU - EU = Germany

2011-12-27T11:49:00.000+02:00

Lest anyone feel uncomfortable with the notion that Germany is the EU and the EU is Germany, they need simply to look at their Hooveristic economic policy it is imposing on the EU and their attitude toward Ukraine at the recently conclude EU-Ukraine summit.

In the first case, the German government is simply saying that others – and they are looking at Spain, Italy and Greece in particular – must be like them, or else; hence the proposal to force the 27 members of the EU to amend their national constitutions to require balanced budgets. To propose this in a recessionary environment sounds rather foolish especially when Germany has not proposed any growth policies, just crippling austerity which, ultimately won’t work to solve the multiple problems. Coupled with the trade imbalances that exist in the EU – which Germany seems disinclined to address – it is hard to imagine any solution that would satisfy Germany which did not require that its policy choices are mirrored in Brussels. If that’s the case, then the Eurozone is going to disintegrate and maybe even the EU.

The second German imposed decision arose at the EU-Ukraine summit. Blithely ignoring the Polish position that inducements work better than sticks, Germany engineered the summit so that the EU did not even initial the Association Agreement with Ukraine killing, for the time being, closer economic cooperation and letting Yanukovich off the hook. The reason for this rejection of even a small step forward was the German view that the Tymoshenko trial and imprisonment should bring the entire integration process to a grinding halt. Astoundingly, Germany ignored Tymoshenko’s call to sign the Agreement preferring to appear as a defender of human rights while obscuring the inconvenient fact that 1) it is joined at the hip with Russia for energy and investment; 2) it gets to work on pipeline projects originating with Russia; and 3) it gets preferential pricing by Gazprom.

The result is that the EU, run by Germany, has managed to push an important country like Ukraine closer to the demonstrably undemocratic Russia and has also failed to come to grips with the Eurozone/EU crises. Not a bad month’s work.

Merry Christmas to All

2011-12-24T11:56:00.000+02:00

France and Freedom of Speach

2011-12-24T11:45:00.000+02:00

I’ve been gone for almost a month since my day job is in an end-year crunch to complete a raft of legislation here in Tajikistan. As the holiday period approaches though, the rush by the government has abated.

The French lower house of parliament recently voted to make it a crime to deny that the Armenians suffered genocide during 1915 at the hands of the Ottomans. The French should – but won’t – discuss the 1.7 million Algerians that were killed during their colonial war. That’s ok as we all know that governments are hypocritical when it comes to their own history but are easily lured by the political advantage of condemning other nations or peoples.

However, France and some other continental countries go further that simply expressing an opinion. They legislate against any other opinion that challenges their view. Note to France (and Germany) – this is curbing the freedom of speech which you hold is one of the foundations of liberal democracy. It is unique to France and such actions would never occur in the US or the UK.

There is no question that Turkey needs to move forward on its own to recognize the tragedy of 1915 – perpetrated by a different government in both form and substance. It was clearly an attempt at ethnic cleansing – not genocide (as the word did not exist until recently). The actions of the Ottomans need to be addressed between Armenia and Turkey and I humbly suggest that the comfortable Armenians in the United States and France keep their collective noses out of the issue. I spent enough time in Armenia to know that many there would be able to resolve their differences in the region if they were permitted by the diaspora to do so.

And perhaps France and Germany should keep in mind that their great EU experiment is heading for catastrophe while Turkey is a rising power that should be courted, not rejected not least because its economy puts every EU member, except for Poland, to shame.

Russia Makes its Moves

2011-11-30T14:36:00.001+02:00

A decision by the Kremlin to pay a naval visit to Syria as reported in Izvestia spells trouble. Russia is clearly ramping up its position regarding what it sees as encirclement redux by the West. Sending its flagship aircraft carrier the "Admiral Kuznetsov" along with a patrol ship, an anti-submarine craft and other vessels is a signal to NATO that Russia is willing to irritate the West - such as threatening to shut down the supply line to Afghanistan as well - to assert its resurgent foreign policy.

Aside from the natural position of any country to protect its interests, the move to send a naval contingent to Syria is curious because the blow-back to Russian economic interests in Syria could be serious in long run. Assad is going down and it is unlikely that the new government will recall the support given to him by the visiting ships with any fondness. It may have been pre-planned, but it was not cancelled, and under the circumstances is a supremely stupid move by Moscow. Defending one's interests is one thing - supporting a bloody murderer is another. Not that the Russians don't have a history of supporting people like Assad - just look to Serbia.

The other somewhat provocative move is the recent threat to cut off the supply route to NATO troops in Afghanistan. Coupled with this weeks border closure by Pakistan, this could spell real trouble. NATO is withdrawing anyway and the logic of the threat speaks more to the perceived and somewhat real containment of Russia by the US in Eastern Europe. But, again, such a threat, if implemented, would affect real NATO interests and lives. This would be a profoundly dumb move by the Kremlin unless it actually desires a return to the cold war - one it did not win.

The timing of the threats from another standpoint is also curious. The US is Russia's greatest competitor. It is withdrawing from Afghanistan and has largely completed its withdrawal from Iraq. Russian ability to reign-in its near-abroad depended on the window of opportunity provided by the distraction caused by those two wars. The window is almost shut and the US will have more opportunity to shift its foreign policy focus away from these wars, much to the detriment of Russian foreign policy should it continue on this course.

It is difficult to understand the choices that are made by those in power in Russia regarding how they protect their interests. They certainly have other leverage points but appear to be deliberately choosing those that maximize the chance of long-term damage in relations with the West - a partner they desperately need. The imminent re-assumption of power by Vladimir Putin coupled with militaristic muscle flexing does not auger well for future.

Future US Republican Foreign Policy

2011-11-26T10:10:00.001+02:00

OK. Resistance is futile. I must comment on thecurrent foreign policy pornography espoused by the presidential candidates inthe Republican Party.

Let’s get to it:

Huntsman: He said “Iranians have already decided to gonuclear”. There is no proof andrepeating it over and over does not make it true. Sort of like the definition of insanity –doing the same thing over and over while believing there will be a differentresult. In fairness, he’s not alone in this.

Perry: Monroe Doctrine redux – to stop Hezbollah andHamas from interfering in South America and joining in on the drug trade inMexico. The legality of the originaldoctrine is questionable. This is juststupid. Not a lot of Hezbollah and Hamasmembers in South America to stir up, plus it is unlikely that either groupwould survive a street fight with Mexican drug cartels.

Santorum: “Africa is a country on the brink”. No comment.

Bachmann: Iran wants to attack Israel – and the US –with nuclear weapons. The first policy hasnever been announced although may be true and the second involving the USwasnever stated by anyone. Anywhere. Anytime.

Bachmann: “We know that they [Iran] already have a nuclearcapability.” We is the unidentified birdwhispering in her ear.

Cain: Iran is very mountainousand therefore a security threat to the US. Watch out Switzerland.

Cain: China is a threat to US security and istrying to develop nuclear weapons. Beijing is astonished and starts countingits stockpile of warheads.

Santorum: “Obviously, Muslimsshould be people we look out…” Yup allthose darker skinned people look alike and must be Muslim terrorists. Unless,of course, they happen to be Mexican.

Romney: Hesaid: “there is "noprice that is too expensive to stop an Iranian nuclear weapon." Really?

Romney AND Perry: Zero out foreign aid and startnegotiating. The government of Israelstarted to pay attention with that line. Aside from the thundering economic and political stupidity of theproposal, that’s not how foreign aid works.

Cain: We should assist the opposition in Iran tooverthrow the regime. That is otherwisemore commonly known as a declaration of war. Go home and sell more crappy pizza.

Gingrich: It’s absolutelyunacceptable for Iran to fully develop a nuclear weapon.. And if Chinacontinues to resist joining the world in tough sanctions against Iran’s nuclearprogram, then a U.S. trade boycott of China would quickly persuade Beijing, He is now the newest “anyone but Mitt Romney”candidate so I guess advocating a trade boycott with the second largest economyin the world and one on which the USalso is dependent economically makes perfect sense. I bet it would be a resounding success. Likeinvading Iraq and seeing into Putin’s soul.

The International Fickle Finger of Fate Award

2011-11-05T08:50:00.004+02:00

To celebrate the end of 9 days of rain, I want to end the week with the people that deserve the old “Fickle Finger of Fate” award (Rowan and Martin’s “Laugh-In” for those old enough to remember). The list is limited to the top seven, one for every day of the week.

George Papandreou, PM Greece: For no obvious reason, creates world-wide consternation when, following months of negotiations in the EU (otherwise known as Germany) to deal with debt crises in general and with problem Greece in particular, by first agreeing to terms of a financial rescue package (which would not have solved the problem and makes the lives of ordinary Greeks worse than they are already, but whatever…) and then turning 180ᵒ to everyone’s surprise, including his own Finance Minister, announcing that he would hold a public referendum to let the Greek people decide. His job is now on the line. Aside from dumbfounded surprise, Sarkozy and Merkel were enraged. Key Greek cabinet members ask him to resign and the Greek government is about to form a coalition government. Good job for the week and for letting the cat out of the bag – national sovereignty trumps everything and threatens the EU (otherwise known as Germany).

Bashar al-Assad, Fearless Leader and (hopefully temporary) President, Syria: After allowing his brother to unleash the army and security forces for months so they could arrest, torture and/or kill demonstrators while being condemned by most of the planet (except Iran, which needs him), Fearless Leader and former optometrist from northern London Assad resisted Arab League demands to stop the violence. This week he changed his mind and said he agreed to the plan, which called for calling off his tanks and security forces, allow foreign and domestic journalists free access, release political prisoners and enter into negotiations with the opposition. Except he really didn’t and within a day his tanks had killed additional dozens of people. Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, the prime minister of Qatar who developed the deal, is not happy. Assad should remember that Qatar was in the lead calling for a no-fly zone in Libya, sent fighter aircraft to take part in the campaign and put hundreds of boots on the ground to help pull down Gadhafi. He also should keep in mind those Syrian military units that have promised a civil war if he does not keep to the deal.

Ilena Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee: During the week, this Republican member of Congress (there’s a pattern to this) marked up a bill and pushed through an amendment that criminalizes diplomacy with Iran. This is unconstitutional, but that little legalistic problem doesn't concern most Republicans when it comes to securing power. She represents the jingoistic and power hungry elected official (aka Republican) who will “do whatever possible to hurt Obama regardless of the interests of the country”. If they are continued to be elected, it will make the US a threat to world peace. Oh – and remember those hikers that were imprisoned in Iran as spies? They’d still be there if Ilena of the galactically stupid had her way.

Condi Rice, former worst US Secretary of State Ever: To be fair, she was an expert on the Soviet Union and was thrown into a world without the Soviet Union. Bit of bad luck, that – but perhaps she should have adjusted. Unfortunately she then went on to work on issues in which she had no grounding. That’s ok too – unless one ignores the learning curve. Like supporting the Iraq war which she recently defended as "worth it" (courtesy of ABC news where she promoted her recent book). Why was the war worth it? Because - “We also now know that it (the Middle East) was the cradle of al Qaeda and extremism”. Apparently, "we" didn't know it then and assumed al Qaeda and religious extremism were from a different universe - the same one where US white supremacists and Timothy McVeigh were born.

The fact that there was no connection between al Qaeda and Iraq seems to have escaped her. The fact that Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda were enemies also appears to be beyond her capability to admit. The fact that the core of al-Qaeda was Afghanistan (despite Osama’s birth in Saudi Arabia) where the US was (at the time) more or less successfully engaged until she and her boss took the eye off the target to indulge in a personal war , also seems to have vanished from her mind.

Her logic dictates that because the head of al Qaeda was born and raised to a wealthy family in Saudi Arabia, the US was justified in invading Iraq – which had nothing to do with 9/11 or al Qaeda. She does assert that Iraq was a security threat. How? No one (other than the moth brained neo-cons and their followers) is sure. She regretted the lives lost but that “nothing of any value is ever gained without sacrifice”. What was the value gained? Iran was gifted the region, so I guess that’s one to them but to no one else. Value for sacrifice? Explain that to over 100,000 Iraqi civilian dead and almost 4,500 US soldiers killed (not to mention those maimed for life) when it was clear that al Qaeda in Iraq was as much of a fabrication as were the claims of weapons of mass destruction.

Herman Cain, Pizza King and Wannabe POTUS: Well – what can I say? His foreign policy thoughts include killer electric fences on the Mexico border and maybe a moat with alligators. Pandering to the Israeli lobby and the Christian right, he now refers to the “so-called” Palestinian people. Beijing will be shocked to learn that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and is therefore a military threat. The Pizza King thinks he qualified to hold public office. Sarah set the bar really, really low. Bachmann and her followers dropped it through the floor. Who would have thought anyone could lower it further? Oh – and there are those sex harassment issues…

David Williams, Kentucky Gubernatorial Wannabe: This loser (he’s behind by 30 points) decided to attack the Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, for participating in a Hindu prayer at a groundbreaking ceremony in Elizabethtown, Kentucky, for a new factory run by FlexFilm, a company based in India that makes materials for packaging, printing, insulation and other purposes. The plant represents a $180 million investment, and is expected to create 250 jobs in Kentucky. He said it was a ceremony of idolatry and prayers to false gods. “He’s there participating with Hindu priests, participating in a religious ceremony…they can say what they want to. He’s sitting down there with his legs crossed, participating in Hindu prayers with a dot on his forehead with incense burning around him. I don’t know what the man was thinking.”

To be fair, Williams is a Republican (the pattern continues) and therefore, like his followers, entitled to some slack. There’s no pill for stupidity and bigotry. Thankfully, he’s also not in charge, and won’t be. Otherwise insulting the religion of the second most populous democracy on the planet and a growing power balance to a rising China (a helpful aspect for US foreign policy) might be taken the wrong way.

And to finish this off –

Michael Bloomberg, Mayor (Independent, Rich Person), New York City: “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.” Got that? This is not a joke. The Very Important People were forced to give bad loans (which they then sold forward and made money). Sounds like German and French complaints about Greece: The Greeks cheated to get in the Eurozone. They cooked the books. Shocking. Terrible. And we, the best and brightest in Brussels, surrounded by thousands of deep thinking analysts and auditors were completely fooled. Wow. Just like all those banks in the US who were forced to loan money to people who they knew couldn’t pay it back. Yeah. That's it.

Russian Roulette - The Greek Way

2011-11-01T13:37:00.000+02:00

After weeks of strained negotiations, pleading, insults and hammering of EU members, a deal was struck on Eurozone finance and Greece in particular. Then this morning, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou spun the chamber and pointed the gun at the EU and Greece by announcing that the Greek people will decide on whether to accept the bailout wrung out by the big players in Brussels.

First, I am not so sure that the agreements reached in Brussels were so great in the first place - but they were something. Second, politicians fall back on referendums when they can't or won't lead (witness the mess of California, a referendum happy state where the politicos run from the responsibilities they are given in elections). Third, this move was manifestly political to avoid early elections.

The referendum announcement sent the markets down. Way down. The Greek public will likely vote against the deal. This is not going to end well.

Libya Rule of Law Prospects...Short Response to Stupid Assertions

2011-10-31T14:10:00.000+02:00

Sarah Leah Whitson of Human Rights Watch stated about the violent end of Gadhafi and those like him: “Finding out how they died matters. It will set the tone for whether the new Libya will be ruled by law or by summary violence.”

Actually, no - it sets the tone for nothing. Think Saddam Hussein and Iraq.

Russia - In the National Interest

2011-10-30T14:00:00.001+02:00

Image via WikipediaRussia has problems and it knows it. But, the end of the US centric world has given Russia the opportunity to reassert itself as a major player in the Eurasia theater, but just barely and perhaps only for a limited time. The policies of Peter the Great are back.

Russia looks to Europe and the West, but not as it did in the decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Yeltsin came Putin whose vision was to reassemble the broken state, create a highly centralized governance system and stamp out overt displays of democratic aspirations through the supremacy of the FSB (formerly KGB) in the political food chain. None of this is surprising in hindsight because Russia proper was historically indefensible and needed either buffer territory or client states to surround its core and strong central government.

Imperial Russia carved out an empire in Central Asia, the Caucuses and East Asia which was simply transferred over to the Soviet Union, albeit with considerable bloody fighting in these regions between 1918 and 1922 when it was re-conquered for a second time. The buffer proved invaluable for defeating Nazi Germany in a variety of ways, not the least of which was room to retreat, a place for industry out of reach of enemies and an unlimited source of cannon fodder.

Putin served the Soviet Union as part of the KGB and his inheritance was an imperial Russia with major losses in Central Asia, the Baltic States, the Caucuses and East Asia (Mongolia), a pathetically weak military, collapsed industrial capacity (most of it was located in the now independent Ukraine), unrest in the Northern Caucuses (Chechnya in particular), unconstrained oligarchs who had divided state assets under privatization and a depressed public. It was a mess.

Any sober Russian leader knows that Russia is surrounded by some pretty hefty neighbors with no natural barriers while the country outside the western Russian core consists of multiple ethnic groups with a dislike of Moscow. The collapse of the Soviet Union ended the internal economy that sustained it (badly). It’s major asset is energy, but it has a poor infrastructure network in general and needs foreign assistance, particularly in technology. This is a daunting task for any Russian leader.

Russia, historically and for good reason, does not trust its neighbors. But since Europe is so much more advanced in almost every sector Russians – or at least their leaders – realize that aggressiveness must be tempered with accommodation. In the A.Y. period (After Yeltsin), Vladimir Putin aggressively went about securing absolute power and restoring Russian prestige in the world as he saw it. Russians were ecstatic and felt that, at least as far as the “near abroad” (all the former Soviet colonies) was concerned, Russian pre-eminence was achieved. He was seen as pro-Western abroad and a strong leader at home. As Russia internally became authoritarian and the nascent democracy was crushed with the help of an energy dependent Europe and a distracted US (Bush saw into Putin’s soul, felt comradeship and invaded Iraq – another story), Putin led Russia in a great charm campaign with Europe and the US.

Frankly, this is not much different from any other country in the prosecution of foreign/domestic policies. It’s ok to be nice abroad when the perceived strength of the country is high. Weak countries tend to be more unpredictable and prone to accidents. Although Putin’s internal and international reputation suffered as he became more dictatorial, it didn’t matter internally because the majority felt that he had restored Russian greatness and stature. He also leveled Grozny.

Dmitri Medvedev, the current and soon to be ex-president, was welcomed as a friend of the West. Again, appearances were deceptive. Medvedev is charming, most of the time, and probably understands Europe and the US better than KGB trained Putin. But when push came to shove, Russia’s national interests logically came first and securing the borders for buffer zones against any outside threat was still a priority. Georgia, ignoring every signal not to poke the bear (who had already said – repeatedly - how much it disliked Georgia’s president) felt the consequences of that policy. Small surrounding countries made a note.

Leaders are rarely of a single personality and both Medvedev and Putin put the national interests of Russia first which results in accommodation or aggressiveness as the case may be. The distraction of the US, first in Afghanistan and then in the illegal war in Iraq gave Moscow a ten year scope of maneuver which it used to destroy democratic tendencies, kill off journalists opposed to the regime and consolidate power within the country followed quickly by changing the dynamics in the near abroad without a murmur of objection from the US or the West. The result was a profound disillusionment in the West with Putin, but no action because the only country that could counter Russia’s moves was tied up in the personal wars of Bush and the abandonment of countries like Ukraine by Europe.

When Medvedev became President and Putin reverted to Prime Minister, nothing changed. Indeed, without blinking and largely due to the thundering stupidity of the Saakashvili, president of Georgia, he quickly launched the war against Georgia the result of which was a foregone conclusion despite the poor and sometimes astoundingly incompetent performance of the army and air-force. It was the perfect war to help secure an important part of the Russian southern flank and blunt Turkish influence. The refusal of Azerbaijan to bend to Russian pressure, however, makes this victory somewhat less than it could be in the Caucuses as does the continuing unrest and unremitting anger in Georgia.

The overthrow of the Bakaiv government in Kyrgyzstan, which had gained control in a color revolution but which quickly degenerated into a kleptocracy, was supported by Moscow – and by the West for different reasons, but the geo-political results were favourable to Russia. As far as Russian historical security policy toward its neighbors is concerned, the outcomes were pretty good.

Finally, there is Ukraine. Russia can do without the Baltics, although it has threatened them frequently, especially when Medvedev said that Russia has the right to protect Russians wherever they happen to be. Ukraine, however, is a different matter. Russia was caught off guarded with the Orange Revolution and the visit by Putin just before the fraudulent election angered both Yanukovich and Yuschenko supporters as an unwarranted interference in Ukrainian politics. However, Russia without Ukraine is indefensible. NATO touches its borders in the Baltics and now has NATO members Romania and Bulgaria on the Black Sea. The expansion of NATO was beginning to look like an encirclement coupled with the Manas air base in Bishkek. A NATO aligned Ukraine would be a disaster.

In short, Russia cannot do without the food, infrastructure (pipelines to Europe), or the port of Sevastopol for the Black Sea fleet. Geographically without Ukraine Russia is looking into a black hole of poverty and marginalization. The defeat of the Orange Revolution with the election of Yanukovich ended the threat of Western penetration into the Russian heartland. This victory in Ukraine changed the attitude of every Russian neighbor. Conciliation and cooperation with Moscow is now the flavour of the day. The West must now learn to deal with a dictatorial puppet regime in Ukraine, which will only be removed by revolution, similar to the absurd notion in the Soviet period of allowing Ukraine a seperate seat in the UN.

Moscow knows it has a small window of opportunity to achieve its goal of internal control and secure borders. With the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, negotiated by Bush and being implemented by Obama, and the wind-down of Afghanistan, the room to maneuver for the Kremlin has narrowed. However, now that it is feeling strong and secure - and knowing that demographically it is losing ground it allows the government to move closer to the West to obtain the technology it desperately needs. Historically, Russia has always followed this pattern. This time, however, may be different because investors’ memories are longer.

Nevertheless, so far the Russian balancing act of building strength internally through the Potemkin village of managed democracy and threatening aggressiveness in the near abroad is working. Moscow has extended its control through strategic relationships in Europe, particularly with Berlin whose need for Russian energy is Moscow’s trump card. This secures the Western front, at least for the near future both politically and economically.

Finally, the customs and trade union conceived in Moscow, is not – as it alleges – to re-create the EU trade system, but to tie Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus close to the Kremlin. The economic union is only a step in the search by Russia for security through control.

Nevertheless, as the window closes, Russia still has resistance from Azerbaijan and Georgia and faces continuing unrest in the north Caucuses. The Baltics are not exactly friendly. Poland, despite its moves to normalize political relations with Moscow, mistrusts Russia and Germany and has helped to form the Visegrad Group with the Baltic states whose primary goal is to forge a military alternative to NATO. As previously mentioned, Russia's demographics is not enviable. Russia's balance between cooperation and confrontation will continue for some time and will always reflect national interests.

One last observation. On September 24 Putin announced he would be running for President to replace Medvedev. These are not, of course, elections. Nevertheless, two days afterwards, Medvedev’s public and nasty firing of the deputy prime minister and Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin revealed more of the internal politics of the Kremlin than would normally be the case.

Medvedev was not happy at being treated like a seat warmer for Putin. During the meeting he referred to decisions he had made and the fact that he was in charge. Unfortunately, with the musical chair now back to Putin, it is clear that his decisions and positions were irrelevant. Not only that. Russia does not seem to be going anywhere economically (aside from energy and without Western help) and certainly not democratically. The idea that Putin will be running the show until 2024 is not appetizing; but from the view of the Kremlin, it is the only choice.

In this corner - al Shaabab

2011-10-30T13:19:00.000+02:00

The Kenyan incursion across its border into the region known as Somalia (the national government in Mogadishu has no control over the majority of the territory – sort of a prerequisite to country status), has bogged down because of heavy rains. Nairobi clearly intends to continue the operation up to and including seizure of the coastal city of Kismaayo – the financial and logistics hub of the al-Shaabab terrorist group. The loss of Kismaayo will be a blow to the financial and logistical prospects of al-Shaabab which reaps the benefits of piracy, and now kidnapping of tourists, using the funds to purchase arms and materials for its activities.

The issue is what happens when the Kenyan’s leave? Some deal will need to be made with the tribal groups allied, more or less, with the government in Mogadishu. Foreign troops cannot stay – that much should be obvious. However, it is very clear that the problem of piracy and the predations of al-Shaabab, including the famine it’s control of areas is exacerbating, are not going to be solved off-shore.

Al-Shaabab must be made to suffer heavy losses and that can only be done ultimately with boots on the ground. Cutting them off from their source of income and headquarters in Kismaayo is a good first step, but must be quickly followed by a Mogadishu presence through one of its allies since it is incapable by itself to do so.

The fact that the Mogadishu government has voiced official protests at the breach of its “sovereignty” is legal window dressing. There are 8,000 foreign troops in Mogadishu (the reason al-Shaabab departed so quickly). The US is sending in drones from neighboring Ethiopia. Failed states have no sovereign rights. The famine in the region is made worse by al-Shaabab. The attacks on civilians, kidnappings in Kenya and the mutual aid society between al-Shaabab and pirates, is a perfect scenario of R2P actions. Support to the Kenyan government’s efforts need to be ramped up now.

Saleh - a way out for Yemen

2011-10-22T12:57:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

The Gulf Arab states, who took the lead in pushing for the overthrow of Qaddafi, have pushed through a UN Security Council resolution calling for an end to violence in Yemen and immediate transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh to his deputy. The resolution was unanimous - not an insignificant point. This is a good development.
What this will do is set the stage for immunity from prosecution for Saleh. This, too is not insignificant. Regardless of the sometimes naive views of human rights' activists, offering a way out for the ultimate loser would likely prevent further bloodshed. Would it had worked for Qaddafi - doubtful since one must expect a degree of rational thought on the part of the target. Qaddafi lived in his own world and his views were, if not insane, certainly completely warped. Immunity probably would not have made a difference and, in any event given his proclivity toward strange and dangerous behavior, would likely have resulted in a prolonged and debilitating insurgency led from Niger or Algeria.
Saleh is not quite Qaddafi (but comes close) and although even the Saudis gave up on him in frustration, they have been instrumental in finding a way to end the slaughter in Yemen. Ending the killing is more important than the future of Saleh - which is limited in any case.
Boxing a dictator into a corner is not a wise way to go and the rose coloured glasses through which some human rights activists view "just" solutions and doing what is "right" can, and has, led to the loss of many more innocent civilian lives than necessary. It develops a growing sense of revenge on the part of those at the wrong end of the broken bottle. The likely execution of Qaddafi at the hands of the rebels should not have come as a surprise and, frankly, draws a line under the bloody civil war in a way the ICC could never have accomplished. That, and the fact that Libyans don't give a rats ass how he was killed, should inform the UN to keep its nose out of the inquest and simply help Libya recover. Just think - Benito Mussolini and his wife were captured, killed and hanged upside down by furious Italians. The UN would have ordered an investigation. What a joke that would have been. The same is true of the execution of Ceausescu and his wife.
Revolutions and war are not clean, pleasant or sanitary. The media should stop being shocked at civilian deaths and revenge killings. It is sad and unfortunate and inevitable.
The ICC is useful to some extent - but it is not useful for ending civil wars by forcing dictators to dig in more. Some activists for "justice" may find that unpalatable - but next time they corner a dictator, let them ask widows or the parents of slaughtered children what their choice would be.

MIttens Romney - Dope or Just a Liar

2011-10-22T11:44:00.000+03:00

Mittens (remember, the one who had tied his dog to the roof of his car), is either a complete dope a liar or , like every Republican, say anything to gain power - or all three. In response to Obama's announcement of the final troop wthdrawal from Iraq by the end of the year, he said this:

“President Obama’s astonishing failure to secure an orderly transition in Iraq has unnecessarily put at risk the victories that were won through the blood and sacrifice of thousands of American men and women. The unavoidable question is whether this decision is the result of a naked political calculation or simply sheer ineptitude in negotiations with the Iraqi government. The American people deserve to hear the recommendations that were made by our military commanders in Iraq.”

Let's parse this remarkably and deliberately misleading statement.

First - this is the Bush plan that is being implemented under an agreement with the sovereign government of Iraq. It is orderly and certainly does not leave Iraq helpless by any stretch of the imagination. Bush gave a large junk of Iraq to Iran to control anyway.

Second - the government of Iraq wants the US to get out. Period. It is their country - what Mitt the Stupid is advocating is an occupation and more US deaths in what amounted to an illegal war in the first place.

Third, US standing in the Middle East can't get much lower because of its self-inflicted slavery to Israeli foreign polich. Egypt and Turkey already can't stand the US and are going their own way. Staying in Iraq, however, would accomplish the goal of dropping the US in popularity into a black hole.

Finally, the American people understand - at least those not part of the lunatic right - that the President of the US is the commander in chief of the military of the US. Period. It is not the role of military commanders to dictate foreign policy. What Republicans want is a military-industrial control of the US and its foreign policy.

Mittens is a cynical idiot at best.

Kenya Says "Enough"

2011-10-18T12:43:00.001+03:00

Kenya has sent its troops and airforce into the area commonly known as Somalia in order to secure its borders from further incursions by the terrorist group al-Shabaab. Amusingly, the “Government of Somalia” which controls a few square kilometers of Mogadishu, has complained of a violation of its sovereignty. This is a charade, of course, since militias in the southern Somalia and which support the government have coordinated with the Kenyans.

Kenya clearly has had enough of the terrorist incursions and is hardly a stranger to Somalia as it has been training their army anyway. Although it has briefly entered Somalia in the past, this time the attack is serious. They now join the Ugandan and Burundian troops already supporting the government. The Somali protest keeps up appearances.

Al-Shabab has vowed to repel the Kenyans. The last time they tried to repel a foreign regular army they didn’t do too well as the Ethiopian military quickly ripped through them.

Now may be time time to rethink the Somali problem – both regarding the pirates (whose funds sometimes end up with al-Shabab) and the terrorist group itself. Ground operations have clearly become necessary as the Russians suggested a year ago. They should now go forward with a plan to stop the pirates before they leave the shore.

Tymoshenko Redux

2011-10-17T16:56:00.000+03:00

Image via WikipediaThe political trial of Yulia Tymoshenko is over but an appeal could change everything. By bringing her to trial for negotiating a generous (from Moscow’s point of view) gas deal while Eastern Europe was freezing in and of itself revealed the motive behind the persecution. Seven other members of her party are already in jail. It stincks of a political murder. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck – well….

The question, like everything in Ukraine, is the underlying reason for this mock trial run by a neophyte, 31 year old judge whose sentence was written for him by the Presidential Administration. It has resurrected Tymoshenko politically, rather than the opposite. It has put Yanukovich in the worst possible light as his government is condemned by the EU and the US. Russia, which appeared equally surprised, may be play-acting as putting political opponents in jail is the norm for the Kremlin (journalists are merely murdered). And this may be key – Russia’s interest in the case as crocodile tears’ come to mind.

Does Yanukovich really care about deeper integration with Europe? Personally, I doubt it. Will he agree to join the economic union Russia has slapped together with Belarus and Kazakhstan? Perhaps – but that is no substitute for the loss of a trade agreement with the EU, despite the Kremlin’s glee should it come to pass.

I prefer not to think that Yanukovich is both stupid and a thug. The latter maybe, but not the former – at least until now. On the other hand, collapse of trade negotiations with the EU gives him the excuse to run to Russia without being the instigator of the break with the EU. But with Putin set to return to power, criticism from the big brother to the north is not a welcome sign for Yanukovich.

As always, nothing is clear in Ukraine and conspiracy theories are a daily menu item. But this prosecution and conviction appear to be a gross misjudgment if the purpose was to remove Yulia from the political arena. It has made her a martyr and, since she has been through this before, even more dangerous for Yanukovich and his Party of the Regions.

The stage is set for what could be a remarkable comeback. First there is a sentence pronounced by a non-entity child judge under pressure by her political opponent Yanukovich for the “crime” of negotiating a bad deal with the Russians. Putin remarked that the sentence is odd at best and the agreements were, in any event legal. Then she is jailed during the appeal process because of, essentially, being rude to the court (not hard considering the court). This is followed by the loss of a major trade agreement with the EU and condemnation from every European leader and principal EU legal experts. Yanukovich has given her what she needs. She lost to him by less than 3% of the vote in 2010. He clearly did not want her, or her party, another grab at the ring. But, tired old apparatchik bully from the East that he is, he could not let her just fade away.

Call it a gut feeling, but I believe the appeal is likely to go her way. If that happens (and even Yanukovich appears to think it may) she will come out of this unscathed and emboldened. She is a ferocious, dangerous competitor and Yanukovich may soon regret his actions.

Push Comes to Shove - Tehrir on Wall Street

2011-10-17T16:46:00.000+03:00

Yes…I know I have not posted in a long while. Two things have blocked my way – the first of which is arriving at a new post in Central Asia (otherwise known as the 12^th Century) and the second – there is simply too much going on. And, yes – I intend to continue with the view and post that we are now part of a multi-polar, pre-1945 world.

Then there is the Occupy Wall Street movement which took a cue from Europe and has gone viral world-wide. It is a good sign, but I would suggest that the inspiration is drawn from the frustration and anger that resulted in the Arab Spring which began in Tunis and quickly spread to Cairo’s Tahrir Square, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and Libya. In other words, almost every country in the Arab world with a long history of the elite taking and everyone else giving.

The results have been dramatic, if not the least from a foreign policy point of view. The street demonstrations have altered the political dynamics in the Middle East with a ripple effect stretching from Moscow to Washington. Ankara is aggressively pursuing what it rightly sees as a huge opening to extend its influence and project its soft (and perhaps hard) power. Washington is learning that the regional governments are not so quick to follow its lead and Moscow and Beijing simply don’t want this sort of thing spreading – hence their veto of sanctions against Syria. But now, many of the same dynamics that sparked the revolts against the establishment in the Middle East have ended up on Wall Street. Good.

Unlike the tea party clique which is funded and supported by industrialists, banksters and the right wing noise machine in the US, the OWS movement is founded on middle class frustration and anger at those who game the system, refuse to pay their fair share of taxes, expect taxpayer funding to save them from their own gross mistakes and in general suck the country dry creating an ever widening gap between the wealthy and everyone else. The movement reflects the frustration of ordinary citizens in Europe who despise the IMF and its policy of beggaring the general population with the only solution to the Eurozone crisis it has in its bag of tricks – cuts in spending (a sublimely idiotic way of addressing a low growth problem). The bureaucracy in Brussels has not come up with a single plan that does not hurt the ordinary person on the street.

The status quo of government run by the banks, Wall Street traders, and industrialists like the Koch brothers is no longer functioning. It is debilitating Europe and America, leaving the playing field to others, China in particular, to do as they please both economically and politically.

Back in my law school days, the son of my professor in real estate law wrote (perhaps self-published) a book titled “When Push comes to Shove”. It was largely devoted to the then disaster known as Vietnam but targeted those elites who got the US mired into that particular civil war and concluded that those elites weren’t listening. Some severe shoving was in order. That has and is happening in the Middle East. In the US it may only be beginning, but one can only hope that the movement becomes strong enough to topple the old order – one way or another. Push comes to Shove.

Wheels Coming Off The Europe Train

2011-09-28T07:52:00.000+03:00

Almost every day on the BBC – well, no – every day, there is another report on the slow motion train wreck of the Eurozone courtesy of Brussels, Berlin and Paris. OK, Greece has something to do with it, but frankly all the handwringing largely seems to attempt to take attention away from the appalling lack of leadership in the European community. I actually was told the other night at a café on Rudaki Prospect here in Dushanbe that the entire mess is entirely the fault of Greeks and immigrants (since the speaker was German, I assumed the reference to immigrants meant Turks). Just close the borders and let every country decide whether the rules for the EU need to be followed if they happen to be inconvenient or disagreeable for a particular country. The speaker was a Phd professor of agricultural economics. A Very Serious Person.

What crap. Let’s leave the Greek default (which I said would happen) aside and look at the culprits during the past year or so. We can start with the OECD report last year.

Distilled to its core, it says that some people (presumably five or six economics academics from Pluto) believed that inflation was coming in less than a year. Maybe. The solution was to raise interest rates soon to head off the possible rise in inflation, which was supported by vague premonitions of something or other. What about the progressively weakening recovery? Well – on the slim chance that inflation may rise then kill the recovery with high interest rates. Oh – and throw in the usual ‘fiscal austerity’ as an added anvil.

And who bought into this – with gusto I might add? The European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates and became a proponent of fiscal austerity also because, as we all learned from Economics 101, economic growth is the direct result of fiscal austerity in a depressed economy as long as trade surpluses are the norm. For everyone. What is wrong with these people?

These are bad – but when the IMF steps in, better put away the good silver and call out the riot police. They not only promote and force fiscal austerity in a time of depressed economies, but clearly don’t care about the pain index. It’s like they are playing a board game. Somehow, the pain felt by the Greeks is just desserts for cheating to get into the euro zone and trying to compete in the European trade game that was fixed by Berlin to forever favor Germany. Let’s let the Greeks twist in the wind and conveniently forget that the brilliant economic minds in Brussels were completely fooled by those crafty Greeks way back when the Euro zone really, really wanted to expand. Sooner or later, given the very stark realities, several countries, including Greece, are going to drop out.

And the Turks, of course, with an average 8% growth rate, are increasingly looking at the EU as an institution that is flailing and faltering and which is not a club they are desperate to join. If Germany has its way, they will never be able to join despite commitments by the EU. My suggestion to Ankara – keep pretending that you really want to join. Just don’t do it.

In the meantime, Greece will have a default (a write-down I think is the politically correct term). Then comes Ireland, Italy and Portugal. The European experiment is coming off the rails.

...and now a word from the racists in America

2011-09-13T10:44:00.001+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

From the Repig debates - the audience reaction - and yes, the flag is entirely appropriate for these people.

OK. Courtesy of Lawyers, Guns and Money:

Applause lines:

The uninsured should be left to die.
Uninsured parents should have daughters who die unnecessarily of cervical cancer.
A Fed Chairman who tries to fulfill his mandate by reducing unemployment is guilty of treason.

Boo lines:

Muslims are not collectively responsible for 9/11.
The children of illegal immigrants should not be denied the chance to go to college.
We should not pass an extraordinarily regressive tax cut.

Now, this blog seriously tries to avoid even mentioning the toxic and galactically stupid atmosphere of contemporary American politics. However, not only does the American media provide the microphone for stupid and dangerous people, they do so without any critique and without any sense of relevance.

The tea party positions are simply neo-Nazi, mouthed by racist, hateful, ignorant red-neck stupid and uneducated animals. They portray the worst elements of US society but are treated as if they are the same as anyone else. They are not. And if they continue on to power, the rest of the planet may need to do something about them.
In the meantime, for presidential candidates to pander to this mass of ignorance, attempting to be even more racist and dumber than their base, makes them little more than dangerous jokes. And let's get this straight. People as hateful and stupid as Michele Bachman, big hair (and murderer of an innocent man) Perry or the astonishingly stupid Santorum, should never be considered remotely capable of being president. These people even make Sarah look good - and that's really lowering the bar.

Palestinian Fail

2011-09-13T08:23:00.000+03:00

A quick hit.

The Palestinian bid for UN status is stumbling badly together with its economic situation. Arabs are not stepping up with funds; Germany has just said the UN bid is not welcome by it or other EU members; the US has said it will veto any measure reaching the Security Council.

Arabs dislike, to say the least, Iran. Hamas is an ally of Iran. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel. The Palestinian government (both of the them) are highly corrupt. The Arabs may be entering a 'Palestinian fatigue' state.

The Palestinians have picked the wrong friends. Back in the past I said that Hamas needs to take the high ground. Recognize Israel and stop the useless attacks. Get some sympathy - because once you lose the Arabs and their money, your hopes and dreams of statehood will vanish, Turkish support notwithstanding.

Wheels Down in Tajikistan

2011-09-13T08:09:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

Out of Qatar, the Middle East and into Central Asia - Tajikistan to be precise. A Persian people going back to the Samanids and their empire - a monument (see picture) to the Samanids adorns a central square.

Dushanbe has changed since my last visit here back in 2008, at least physically. Less dust, new buildings. The Tien Shen range of mountains is still on the horizon. There are still police every 20 meters or so on the main street, Rudaki, arbitrarily stopping cars and extorting bribes from drivers on fabricated violations. For Independence Day (September 9) the government raised the largest flag pole in the world for a mere $35 million while sidewalks are still pitted and broken in many places. Some things never change.

More soon from Dushanbe and beyond...

Turkey Ups the Stakes

2011-09-10T00:09:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

What seemed to be half rhetoric and half serious has morphed into a threat that will have grave consequences arising from an inevitable "unfortunate incident" in the Eastern Med. Turkey raised the stakes considerably today when PM Erdoğan told al Jazeera that the Turkish navy will escort aid ships to Gaza.

On the same day President Gül - in Russia to attend the funeral ceremony for the Yaroslavl ice hockey team - stated that Israel was a burden to its allies and should negotiate an honourable peace.

These statements were quickly followed by the remarks of Turkish Transportation Minister Binali Yıldırım that Israel’s raid last year on the aid flotilla was “no different” under international law than what Somali pirates are doing in the Gulf of Aden.

Prepare for the pundits to indulge in pleasant debates over the relative positions of Israel and Turkey, the type of intellectual massaging that produces no results. I happen to think that Turkey is pushing the matter dangerously far although I have no sympathy for the current Israeli government or its apartheid policies. A naval engagement would be tragic for the region and a lose - lose scenario for the participants.

The Turkish navy is a significant entity - it can insert 8 highly capable and modernized missile and helicopter equipped Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates as well as almost triple the number of submarines than the Israelis can field. If they toss in fast attack and missile boats they can overwhelm any Israeli attempt to block the aid convey unless Israel can establish air-superiority in which case would they actually attack Turkish surface ships.

Will Israel risk war with Turkey?

Turkey and Israel - Failed Alliance; Dangerous Talk

2011-09-04T16:38:00.001+03:00

Not to be an alarmist and, as everyone knows I don't like predictions because they are based on the selective past, but the sort of warning issued by Turkey to Israel regarding the freedom of passage in the Eastern Med is not helpful.

The anger in Ankara with Israel is palpable and not without reason; but its explosive PM is sometimes over-the-top in his frequently pointed remarks, and as I've previously pointed out, Turkey needs to learn a little more diplomacy in its pronouncements regardless of the obvious temptation to tell others to piss-off or imply military action. The most recent example is the following: “Turkey would take every precaution it deems necessary for the safety of maritime navigation in the eastern Mediterranean.” (a reasonable statement by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu) but which was followed by a clarification from an un-named Turkish official who said "A more aggressive strategy will be pursued. Israel will no longer be able to exercise its bullying practices freely...” What the hell does that mean in terms of rules of engagement?

The region is in turmoil. Syria is in melt-down mode. A vote on Palestinian statehood is coming up at the UN. Egypt is still unstable. Hamas and Hezbollah are facing problems - the first with a still military controlled Egypt and the latter with the loss of Syria. A vote for Palestinian statehood may provoke a new intifada. Israel has already called up reserves. The US is pulling out and has no stomach for a fight with anyone.

A highly visible confrontation between the two naval forces would simply add to the regions problems and Turkish naval officers may run into equally nervous Israeli captains. It's this sort of rhetoric that leads to "regrettable incidents resulting in loss of life". Everyone needs to dial it down before the middle east goes up in flames.

Turkish warships will be more frequently seen in the area but their rules of engagement must be circumscribed and publicly announced.

Turkey Downgrades Israel

2011-09-02T13:24:00.000+03:00

As a result of the findings in the UN report on the Gaza flotilla, Turkey has lowered the diplomatic level to the lowest it could without completely breaking relations. The isolation of Israel is accelerating and will reach a high point when the vote for recognition of a Palestinian state is taken this month in the UN.

The complete inability of the Israeli government to reach a compromise for an apology has lost it a key ally for the forseable future. You can't get any dumber than this (well, you can - just take a look at the state of US politics courtesy of the Republicans and its Tea Party facist supporters).

Libya - No more headlines

2011-09-02T13:17:00.001+03:00

Muhammar Qaddafi is encircled and under siege in Sirte and is now calling for one of the always possible scenarios to be implemented – guerilla war. Effecting this scenario may well be problematic as it is unlikely he will escape the coming assault on Sirte. The regime is dead – an internal revolution succeeded but only with the help of foreign intervention. That’s important to remember, because otherwise this would have been a long and likely losing struggle. Qadaffi has been in control for over 40 years and didn’t keep his power by being stupid or reluctance to do whatever was necessary to retain power.

Now that the fighting has narrowed to small pockets of resistance by Qaddafi loyalists, questions can be raised that have previously been dismissed.

Consider this.

Libya has nearly 45 billion barrels of oil reserves, 3.4 percent of the world’s known supply. Natural gas reserves are estimated at near 55 trillion cubic feet.

Most of Libya’s oil exports went to Italy – 32 percent of foreign sales as of 2009. The majority of the rest went to Germany, France, Spain and China (no veto of the no-fly zone imposition).

All existing contract will remain active, begging the question of the extent of modifications. Who will get the new exploration and extraction licenses? ENI (Italy) or Total (France).

Will the existing contracts be modified from their current 90/10 revenue split between Libya and the companies? Tipping the balance is expensive.

How is it that a listed terrorist organization gets to be a freedom fighter group and whose head commands the Tripoli Military Council? Change of name – change of status.

The Arab Spring, of which Libya was made a part, has been astonishingly lucrative. For weapons sales.

In the five months ending in June, the UK sold arms to Arab governments amounting to 30.5 million sterling, according the The Times – a 30% increase. Germany, that bastion of peace which refused to take part in the naval blockade of Libya, nevertheless inked a contract with the Saudi’s (whose military crushed the Bahrain demonstrations by Shiites) for a division’s worth of high end tanks tagged at 1.5 billion euro only to be heavily trumped by the US - $60 billion of aircraft to Saudi Arabia over a 20 year period. This is only in the Arab Spring period – care to guess about the past ten years?

There is nothing wrong with disposing of people like Qadaffi and I support it. But the media, as usual, has played the useful idiot and parrots the talking points of the protagonists while studiously avoiding the hypocrisy. This is not a judgment. It is important to make sure that events are not seen in isolation from other, important factors nor should decisions to act or not be viewed in black and white even if the short attention span or relative ignorance of populations demand simplistic analysis.

Last Word on Turkey

2011-08-31T15:02:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

In the not so distant past, Turkey was impoverished, inward-looking nation, mistrustful – if not actively hostile – to its neighbors who were seen as either enemies of the state at worst or backstabbing traitors at best. Not.Any.Longer.

Turkey’s foreign policy has changed as rapidly as its internal politics – transforming from a closed, totalitarian system to a reasonably open and relatively liberal political environment while viewing its neighbors and Europe as opportunities and allies. It is closer to European norms of democracy than the Kemalist military and bureaucratic omnipresence.

Turkey does not view the EU as indispensable and the status quo in the relationship will not spell the end of civilization as far as Ankara is concerned. Turkey intends to continue policies of economic and diplomatic outreach with its neighbors as part of its expanding influence and commercial interests. Although not particularly concerned about the stalled EU accession process because the EU is still the largest trading partner, the atmospherics could be poisoned by the continuing deadlock resulting in an antagonistic attitude.

With the recent elections resulting in extending the 9 year rule of the AKP, concerns have been amplified regarding the direction of Turkey to the extent that France has even become more opposed to any accession talk. These are misplaced concerns although the Putinization of the political structure remains a fear as the AKP and the PM in particular react adversely to any sort of criticism. However, of the several scenarios for Turkish development, I think that the fear of a shift toward authoritarian rule – Islamist, or militant secularist/ Kemalist – is unlikely. I believe that Turkey will continue its path toward pluralism and liberal democracy.

We have seen that modern Turkey was founded through a top-down approach. It was secular and authoritarian. Between 1945 and the early 1980s a form of managed democracy took the place of the authoritarian regimes. But, this managed democracy was run by the military. It may have been multi-party but it was tightly controlled by the army and hand selected bureaucrats with an occasional coup thrown in. Then the evil empire vanished and with it the Cold War. The most recent transition had begun to form a liberal, pluralistic society from the bottom-up which is still evolving, sometimes painfully. The business class that grew from this transition came from the center of Turkey - conservative and Muslim; but, it believed in liberal economics and true democratic rule, not the elitism of the Istanbul business interests.

The economic change and the demographics of its source led to the founding of the AKP led by Erdoğan and his friends in 2001. The new party supported EU accession, and a European market styled democracy. It has been in power for a decade, many a huge number of mistakes and certainly has its flaws. Critics have been unwelcome – and critics abound. But, it’s hard to argue with success - economic stability, an average of 6-7 percent annual growth rate, and a tripling of per capita income from little above $3,000 in 2002 to about $10,000 in 2010. Broad freedoms, economic success and a vibrant democracy are popular. Try and change it and the AKP will fall.

In foreign policy, Turkey has reversed its previous attitudes toward its neighbors. Rather than viewing them with mistrust, they have been drawn closer. Unlike the short sighted Europeans, no visas are required for travel between Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Russia and Syria. The cost of visas for others is minimal and visas are, unlike those for a closed EU, easy to obtain. This is called soft-power.

Much of the reforms and democratic trends over the past decade have been helped by the EU’s support. Then political and economic changes in Europe modified the dynamics. Despite the confirmation of Turkish EU eligibility by Brussels five times, the latest coming in 2002, the French simply decided to ignore EU rules and promises and actively opposed Turkey. No one in Europe pointed out to France that its opposition was improper. The ossified EU system is making a mistake of huge proportions.

Turkey is discovering new methods of using its soft power, both cultural and economic, to expand its influence despite the snubs of the EU. They no longer perceive Russia or even Greece and Armenia as enemies. Its view of its neighbors reinforces Turkish self-confidence as a growing regional hegemon that does not need the approval of Europe or the US. Turkish foreign policy continues to develop dynamically and proactively. It looks ahead, not to the past but still remembers its history and civilization. Its neighbors should take notice because Turks do and it governs how they perceive the region and their role in it. Geo-politically it occupies a unique position and has the economic, cultural and military depth to make itself a force.

This is why the EU’s antagonistic attitude is so astoundingly stupid. Turkish foreign policy mantra of peace in the neighborhood is exactly that of the EU stated policy. It is already an extension of the policy established by Brussels and supports that policy. Rather than show any sort of appreciation, Europe seems to think that this is some sort of competition. Another mistake and typical of European arrogance. What is it that Europe doesn’t get? Turkey is not Serbia or, frankly, Slovakia or Romania – just other applicant states. It is a strategic player and key to stability in the Middle East.

Europe, and to some extent the US, appear to think that Turkish involvement economically and socially with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, not to mention its strong desire to prevent a conflagration in the Middle East, are somehow signals of a change in direction away from the West. This is not a zero sum game and this line of reasoning in Europe and the US borders on the absurd, playing only to the uninformed and for the benefit of the talking heads.

Turkey has made some foreign policy mistakes but appears to be a quick learner. If Ankara is guilty of anything, it is one of tone. The PM in this regard does not do himself any favours. Ridiculous tirades against Israel, statements that genocide is prohibited by the Koran and therefore the government of Sudan could not have committed the crime, and walking out of meetings may play well in the Turkish media, but are intemperate and need to be avoided.

Turkey is a well on its way to becoming a regional, indispensible power – one that the EU and the US need to engage more effectively. Turkey is charting a foreign policy path that protects and extends its interests. The Cold War and the old blocs are gone.

Busy, busy, busy

2011-08-31T11:33:00.000+03:00

Some have noted to me by email that my last, short post was almost a month ago. That's the fault of my day job. With a few days free during Eid I hope to post a little more. I am also leaving the sandbox as it is called in the US and will be going back to my old area of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia. By September 12 I will be landing in Dushanbe, having said farewell to Qatar. I last worked in Tajikistan in 2008 - what seems like a century ago.

Standard & Poors - Lobby Group

2011-08-09T10:26:00.001+03:00

Standard & Poors needs to be investigated and it's offices sealed and documents seized to see who is paying them to arrive at their conclusions which are aimed at influencing political decisions. Just like they are doing in Italy.
A history of their political interference to protect banks and financial institutions is well documented. Consumers were harmed in 2000 in the US State of Georgia to benefit predatory mortgage lenders. Lehman Brothers was given a clean AAA rating shortly before it vaporized.

Everyone should remember that they, like the other rating agencies, are private sector and decidedly biased. They were key in making the situation worse in Greece and apparently are doing the same in Italy.
Who is paying them for this? Follow the money.

Leadership Vacuum

2011-08-08T17:40:00.003+03:00

The piecemeal approach to address the continuing and worsening financial and growth crises has exposed the biggest missing element – leadership. There is none and it is an international problem. The Swiss are in panic mode and need to prevent any further strengthening of their currency; the ECB is floundering trying one solution after another – the most recent is the purchase of Italian and Spanish bonds; the US is doing little to nothing when it needs revenues and its tax rates are the lowest in history because its political structure is in a state of collapse – and S&P placed the blame at the feet of the Republicans and their moronic tea party core; European tax payers – and more to the point German taxpayers – are being asked to absorb Euro debt of the peripheral Eurozone members when the problem is structural economic imbalance. The political will to do anything, apparently anywhere, is zero. As I write this, the Dow dropped 200 points in 2 minutes.

If Europe keeps using band aids rather than addressing its structural problems, then the Euro is in deep trouble and, with nationalism on the rise, so is the EU. If the tea party and Republicans are not removed from the table, then the US moves closer still to banana republic status.

Trouble is no longer on the horizon – it’s in full view.

Economic problems are structural and long-term coordinated plans are required. There is no magic bullet and everything short-term has been tried. In the US, raising taxes and spending on infrastructure and science are required – in other words, spending. In Europe, a little introspection and planning regarding the economic imbalances between the core and the rest must be undertaken. What is missing is leadership. Leadership would inspire confidence, also in short supply. But, in Europe and particularly in the US, waiting for leadership is like waiting for Godot.

By the way, for those involved in donor oriented development programs, watch the money dry up.

Don't Park Illegally in Vilnius

2011-08-03T19:33:00.000+03:00

OK. This is priceless. The photo shows the mayor of Vilnius, Arturas Zuokas, crushing an illegally parked car (in a bike lane). Apparently he lost his patience and a ticket and tow was simply not going to cut it.

Crescent Rising - Part 2

2011-08-03T19:18:00.001+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

From its very beginning with the capture of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Empire became European or at least, non-Asian – only more far more enlightened compared to its contemporary competition further west in Spain, England and France. This was not a matter of choice, but practicality. Everyone it conquered to the west of Constantinople was not Turkish and non-Muslim. To make the empire functional, these people were needed (with enthusiasm), so the practical Ottomans simply made them part of a rich, open society and, aside from requiring these regional governments to pay taxes to Istanbul and defer on all issues of foreign and military policy, they were pretty much left on their own. It worked remarkably well for 300 years. And it was not until the mid-18^th century, when the long, 200 year retreat from Europe began, that the cosmopolitan and European attitudes began to erode, ending completely in 1918.

Almost a century later, the Turks are again learning how to be internationalists, Europeans and powerful. They’ve gotten a little rusty at it. The major difference is that now, Islam, a political religion pushed aside since 1922 with the founding of the modern Turkish state, must be taken into consideration by any government in Ankara. This is something Europe has conveniently forgotten and, in the great Casablanca tradition are “shocked, shocked” that there are Muslims in Turkey. To be fair, many Turks are also surprised and shocked and despite Western fears, the secularists in Turkey are not an inconsiderable force so all the talk about the AKP turning Turkey into a fundamentalist Islamic state (like the Wests great ally, Saudi Arabia), is absurd. There are no Wahhabists in Ankara – the AKP want to rule, not get run out of town.

The view from Ankara, as promulgated by the current party in power, is – to use its own term – 360 degrees. Turkey’s strategy is its “zero conflict with neighbors” policy - to be friends with everyone and enemies of none. Turkey is playing a game now that it has not played in over 100 years. It wants to normalize relations with Armenia, except the government in Baku (Muslim and a Turkic culture) wants its support over Nagorno-Karabakh. Syria wants its support in Lebanon. Iran wants its support against the US. Even the Saudi’s want Turkish support against Iran and the US wants Turkey back in a subservient mode. The neighbourhood is, to put it mildly, a rough one and because all these countries have different, if not competing interests, the zero conflict with neighbours’ policy is not sustainable. Sooner or later, Turkey will have to choose sides on some issues and make someone very, very unhappy. Ankara seems to understand this ultimate fact and has been exercising its rediscovered power carefully. For example, if the AKP government had rejected the NATO anti-missile bases directed at Iran the damage in the EU, US and NATO would have been terminal; realpolitik kicked in and they accepted the missiles rather than break with the West over Iran – a regional competitor in any event. Tehran was, as expected, less than pleased. I suspect the attitude in Ankara toward Iran on this matter was “get over it”.

Turkish views of their sudden international problems are kept close and rarely discussed openly – despite the Prime Minister’s unfortunate predilection for less than diplomatic comments. Turkey has deep economic interests in the Muslim world – which delayed its denunciation of Qaddafi, for example – as well as very significant interests in Syria and Iran. It is not going to jettison these for the benefit of Washington or Israel or Berlin for that matter. Turkey wants a stable Syria and no air attacks on Iran. It also understands the need not to confront Russia for the same reason Germany has become Moscow’s foot pad – energy. Despite the increasingly tepid support by Ankara for EU membership, even this is likely a charade as Germany and France increasingly pursue a policy of exclusion. On the other hand, given the problems in the EU which are not simply monetary, perhaps Ankara is following the old Groucho Marx dictum of never joining a club that would have him as a member.

Turkey knows it has the most robust and capable military force in the region. The economy has continued to grow at a startling rate of over 8% - something not seen in Europe in a very long time. Although this growth will moderate, and is now showing signs of strain, the fact is that the Turks are beginning to punch their weight, economically and culturally in the region and have recently taken the lead in representing Islam and democracy – something many in the West feel is impossible. They tread carefully, however, because there is increasing talk of the Ottomanization of the state and the memory of empire for both Turkey and in the capitals of its former holdings in the region has not vanished. Whatever government sits in Ankara, this memory will influence future actions.

Finally, Turkey’s relationship with the US and Israel has suffered recently. But, from Ankara s point of view, the relationships are now on a more equal footing regionally. The US needs Turkey as it leaves Iraq and for the influence it holds in the Caucuses and Central Asia. Israel, despite the Gaza flotilla incident and a general souring of relations with Turkey under the Netanyahu regime, remains on economic and military speaking terms. Israel cannot afford to make Turkey an enemy. Ankara also knows – and the US knows it knows (we all know) - that Israel has no capability to achieve any sort of political movement in Syria, Lebanon or Iran of the type that Turkey can achieve. Turkey, in other words, has options.

As a rising regional power, Turkey can no longer play with neat little academic concepts. Culturally, they may not want to deal with regional problems by choosing sides or playing realpolitik – but these are consequences of their re-emergence. Turkey is a player in the new old order and they will grow into the role, as they must.

Crescent Rising - Part 1

2011-07-25T00:58:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

First, a thimbleful of background, as this is not meant to detail the complexities of the rise of the Turkish state but establish their parallax view.
Back in the not so distant past, Turkey towed the line. As a subservient, reliable partner of the West during the Cold War, Turkey could be counted on to do and say whatever NATO and the US wanted. Of course, the new nation, founded only in 1922 after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent revolution led by Kamal Ataturk, was less than 25 years old when the Cold War started. Ataturk, of course, pulled Turkey abruptly into the West and moved its capital from imperial Constantinople to the somewhat desolate Ankara in the center of the Anatolian plateau. In the process, he stripped away the old imperial trappings and mindset which had brought the Ottomans in on the wrong side of the war, albeit with the significant encouragement of Allied incompetence and, not to put too fine a point on it, British arrogance, adeptly exploited by Berlin.

After the end of the Second World War, during which the new nation of Turkey intelligently remained a neutral, the government – out of historical habit and national interests – moved even closer to the West and became the southern bulwark against the equally new Russian empire now called the Soviet Union. Turkish foreign policy, dictated by its generals, became whatever NATO and hence US foreign policy, needed it to be. That was the view from Ankara then.

I suspect one can look to the events of the early 1970s when this easy relationship began to go off the rails in Cyprus as far as Ankara was concerned. Between 1960 and 1974, Cyprus was a unified republic composed of a Greek majority and Turkish minority, mostly located in the north. When Greek nationalists began to agitate for annexation by Greece, and complemented their desires with attacks on the Turkish minority (who retaliated at times, but were significantly outnumbered), Ankara became understandably concerned. Then came the military coup in Greece led by ultra-nationalists which, although a NATO member like Turkey, took a far more aggressive stance toward Cyprus that alarmed Ankara enough to occupy the northern part of Cyprus in 1974. This was intended as a temporary occupation pending a solution to the crises. In 1983 the now military rulers in Ankara created the Republic of Northern Cyprus. The crisis is still pending almost 40 years’ later and temporary has hardened to permanent.

Turkish leadership through this period was anchored on the military which, regardless of the country, is genetically wired not to give up ground. Ankara’s generals clearly viewed the Greeks with suspicion (a mutual perception), were entirely disinclined to cooperate with anyone over Cyprus (including the UN which wanted re-unification) and anyway, liked their new base in the Eastern Med.

Turkish attitudes and interests changed dramatically with the election of the AKP in 2003 and the move toward integration with the EU which considered the division of Cyprus with some distaste. As far as the AKP was concerned, they went above and beyond to please the EU. Unfortunately, the EU was, to say the least, unresponsive and Turkish attitudes have been formed by that lack of EU approval to Ankara’s efforts - in full – to support to the U.N. unification plan proposed by the then secretary general Kofi Annan. Unsurprisingly, nationalists in both Ankara and Nicosia were infuriated with the idea that there might be some solution. There was no reward for the efforts by the AKP and Turkey to accept the UN plan and when a referendum was held in Cyprus, which would have resulted in re-unification, the Turkish population voted overwhelmingly to support it while the Greeks rejected the plan. Shortly thereafter, the EU welcomed the Greeks who voted “no” into the EU club proving to Ankara that, as far as they and Europe were concerned, no good deed goes unpunished.

Ankara’s growing, but still reversible assessment by 2005 was that if it followed the rules of the club it was trying to join, its reward would be rejection. Even by 2003 It was feeling far more confident politically and economically – a trend which began before the AKP took power and originated around the time of the abrupt collapse of the Soviet Union. Turkey viewed that particular event as an opportunity for itself – not NATO or the EU. It rapidly increased its presence in the former Soviet colonies in Turkic Central Asia and Azerbaijan. It ramped up trade and investment with both the Russian Federation and Ukraine and extended its diplomatic clout regionally. Turkey was looking out for its interests first. The Cyprus problem, largely a result in its view of broken promises by the EU, began the ascent to regional power.

This brings us to the recent past and the next post on the view from Ankara.

Putin's Enlightenment Award Vaporizes

2011-07-20T20:27:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

The prize I referred to below that was bestowed on Vladimir Putin was withdrawn. The Quadriga Prize, bestowed on the anniversary of German reunification on October 3, is a private award that recognizes "role models for enlightenment, dedication and the public good."

Awarding it to Putin was a travesty - now corrected. Medvedev's mild rebuke for the revocation is telling.

Thoughts for the Day

2011-07-19T21:02:00.000+03:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Before moving on to discussing the new, old world order two thoughts for the day:

1. Is anyone - except right wing troglodytes - upset about what is happening to the troglodyte in chief Rupert and his mini-trog son? Bring it on and bring him down.
2. Germany's attitude toward Greece and the future of the Eurozone, not to mention the EU, is a direct example of my new, old world order. But then, what do you expect from a country which just awarded Vladimir Putin a coveted prize by ignoring his destruction of the fledgeling Russian democracy?

New, Old World Order

2011-07-18T21:40:00.000+03:00

I am, finally, returning to a thesis not widely supported but which I believe is rapidly taking shape: the world has returned to a pre-1939 political structure where regional powers are making more foreign policy decisions based on national interests rather than within alliances. Blocs like NATO, ASEAN and even Shanghai Cooperation Organization are have become largely clubs without transnational impact, except at times militarily like NATO, and even then are severely constrained by the conflicting international interests of their members. This is also true of the European Union where the political (and perhaps fiscal) unraveling of the Eurozone is proceeding apace.

Some caveats. First, this is not about the perceived decline of the United States because it is not a decline except in relative terms. It is about the reality of multi-polarity and local dominance and not absolute decline and fall – something a vast number of Europeans and Americans simply are too reluctant or obtuse to understand. The United States is still the leading military power on a planet-wide basis in general. Its navy with accompanying air power can go anywhere, anytime and push anyone out of the way. No one can project military power like the US and no one is going to be able to do so for a very long time. In the wrong hands, as we have seen, that has been a problem. But, there is simply no competition.

Nevertheless, on land and in foreign affairs, it is a different matter. The ill-conceived war in Iraq and the seemingly endless war in Afghanistan have drained the power of the United States militarily, economically and politically. The policies of the neo-cons and the far right in the US have destroyed the “city on the hill” image that Ronald Reagan tried to push both domestically and internationally. The eight year Bush administration buried the credibility, economy and good will felt toward the US with its astonishingly arrogant, incompetent (but unsurprising) foreign policy otherwise known as the ‘go-it-alone’, ‘with us or against us’ and ‘international agreements be damned’ posturing.

Second, the European Union remains a creation with enormous potential; but the failure to push for more political integration is now fraying the edges of its economic foundation. If it is able to resolve the fiscal issues of its member states fairly, then the opportunity to conduct a unified foreign policy will have a chance. It is not, in my opinion, likely. Which is why the EU is not included in my list as an entity – just a few member states.

Third, a seismic event could reverse the trend toward the nation-centric foreign policy of pre-1939. I believe in the improbable and dismiss facile bell curves, models and forecasts based on hindsight. It’s what you have dismissed as improbable that will hurt you – usually badly. The fiscal crises which began in 2008 could have been such an event and should not have been unforeseen, but that moment has dissipated with the uneven recovery – some countries doing much better than others such as in the case of Germany which unfortunately, also proceeded to vocally relegate some member states –the southern tier and Greece in particular - to second citizen status with some distasteful, nationalistic remarks bordering on bigotry.

So, on a region by region basis I believe we are looking at an old, new world order. It may last a decade or fifty years. My bet is that it will last longer than anyone expects. Its structure is that of the realpolitik world of pre-1939 which largely came crashing to a bloody end in 1945 with the rise of the blocs. Some blocs are still around but in reality began a rapid disintegration with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Viewing the political map from this geo-political perspective, there are several clear, locally powerful players – China and India; Russia; Turkey; Germany and France; the Visegrad group; and, of course, the US. Oh – and BRIC is not a bloc – it is a label of convenience mostly for economists who, like Linus and his blanket, need to pigeon-hole un-related countries into nice chewable morsels.

I have not included Iran because, compared to the others and despite the hysterics of the galactically stupid right wing in the US, it simply doesn’t count. Its economy is in shambles and it is politically unstable and cannot risk going to war or cutting off the Strait of Hormuz because that would invite retaliation of the most unpleasant sort by almost everyone. It’s not near to building a single nuclear bomb and couldn’t afford to toss it in any direction even it did manage that amazingly difficult task because then it would be wiped out.

I did not include any African country because, well, if you can name one that is a regional power with enough influence both economically and militarily to do anything with significant impact except very locally, you win a cookie. South Africa is the sub-Sahara elephant in the room– but its absurd attempts to play on the world stage as it has in Libya make it more of an annoying busybody than effective player. The African Union in general is an old boys’ club intent on maintaining the status quo. Just look at the lack of effective condemnation of Mugabe’s reign by the AU.

I also do not include any South American country despite my strong temptation to present Brazil as a player. Maybe soon, but not now.

That’s my pre-amble. Next time, and as a first choice, let’s look at Turkey or, more to the point, how Turkey looks at everyone else and their reaction.

Posting about the Obvious

2011-06-22T21:20:00.001+03:00

I’ve had a long break from posting while I thought of what topic was worth a comment. None, really, was the conclusion.

First, the anticipated speech by Obama on the troop drawdown in Afghanistan is not news any longer. It stopped being news when the leaks began. My judgment is that it is about time the US declared that the death of OBL and destruction of the al Qaeda operation in Afghanistan mooted the need for US and NATO troops. Nation building was not why Bush went in – the mission morphed into that particularly perverse idea. Plus, Karzai is a bigger ass than previously thought and his increasingly strident remarks about NATO and the West – who are there protecting his ass – justify, in and of themselves, a complete withdrawal. In any event, the wind-up of the 10 year war should be considered a success because, simply – the goals originally put forward for the invasion have been reached. The unplanned for break in the relationship between the US and Pakistan is another matter. End of story.

Second, what more can be said about the IMF, Brussels and Greece other than the path taken at the insistence of Germany in particular won’t work in the long-term for the cohesion of the EU and may very well bring about the collapse of the euro zone. The economies of the EU are badly out of balance and the major players are unwilling to change the dynamics. This is no longer breaking news.

Third, is anyone surprised at the time it is taking to get rid of Gadhafi? Nothing new here except, again, everyone must re-learn the basic rules of warfare – airpower is never enough and boots on the ground win battles. Unfortunately, the anti-Gadhafi forces do not have the firepower or the money to successfully bring an end to the conflict. A NATO missile (if the Europeans have any left) will end up doing it. Daily reports of casualties, mistakes and the continuing shock by Very Important Pundits that civilians are killed in wars make not a damn bit of difference. The absurd debate in the US of the legalities of involvement in Libya is a side-show for intellectual ego massage and decisions over superficialities (something at which the US Congress excels) while the intellectually challenged Republican candidates for president indulge in posturing on who can be more Christian, white and right-wing than the other.

Syria. Being in the neighborhood and the headquarters of al Jazeera, I get a full dose of the atrocities every day. No one will do anything because no one can do anything. The demonstrators are, well, on their own. End of story.

South China Sea. The entire universe seems to claim overlapping parts of it. Few are paying attention, but this zone is a legitimate flash point for a very dangerous military encounter.

South Sudan and no one mentions the oil. Why is that?

So – being somewhat bored with all the above and not the hand-wringing type, I thought that it would be more interesting, at least for me, to write about the New Old World Order – abbreviated edition. That will be the subject of the next few posts.

Eurozone Slow-motion Train Wreck

2011-06-04T13:09:00.000+03:00

If anyone thinks that the Eurozone is under control, they need to take off the blinders. Greece is, to use a technical term, a mess. It does not have the political ability to effect the changes needed. It is not only insolvent, but illiquid. This is a fundamental, terminal problem. After Greece came Ireland, then Portugal. The elephant in the room is Spain and it may be next. The entire Eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck and that fact is beginning to sink in. If all the other reports of disintegration were not enough, this latest from Martin Wolf in the FT slams the door.

I just want to add a point from a political angle. If there was a component adding to the crises, it is the positions taken by Germany which, with the help of its elected officials, have demonized those countries unfortunate enough not to be German. The desperate political campaigns of Merkel and her party to channel and support arrogant and Germany-first attitudes have severely damaged the idea of Europe. The public statements of German government officials at the highest levels regarding Greece, for example, have damaged the integrity of the EU.

The crisis is getting worse, not better.

Sepp the Magnificent

2011-06-01T22:21:00.000+03:00

Yes. I know. Football (soccer) is not international development or foreign policy. But it reflects the dreams of many countries. That's why the FIFA scandal is a foreign policy problem. Sepp Blatter was re-elected to a another four year presidency of FIFA - arguably one of the most corrupt organizations in the world and run just like the Mafia, but without the efficiency. Blatter organized an accurate replication of Soviet style elections - he was the only one running.

He promises reforms while silencing critics. He has stood over the shambles of an organization that indulges is bribary on an international scale, involving individuals and countries. He should have been expelled, not re-elected. FIFA needs to be turned inside-out and flushed.

Libya, War Powers Act and International Law

2011-06-01T22:10:00.001+03:00

My final post on Libya and the legality of the US actions under international law and the US Constitution – because I have read too much drivel lately from diletantes…

First, although the War Powers Act has forced US Presidents to consult with, and report to, Congress when U. S. armed forces are used in combat situations it has never significantly limited the President's practical power to commit the United States to use military force. Furthermore, Congress likes the loose language in the Act because it allows them to punt. They do not need to declare war – thereby putting their necks on the line.

Second, I have read numerous posts – usually in the comment sections, which interpret the legality of the US actions solely by quoting a specific provision of the War Powers Act without taking into consideration either the US Constitution, treaty law or reality. Rather, those opposed to any military action by the US unless Congress approves tend to grab and hold the following this provision from said Act:

“(c) Presidential executive power as Commander-in-Chief; limitation

The constitutional powers of the President as Commander-in-Chief to introduce United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, are exercised only pursuant to (1) a declaration of war, (2) specific statutory authorization, or (3) a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.”

Let’s just analyse the provision and see how the facile interpretation of a paragraph, in what might be argued as an unconstitutional law in any event, is wrong.

First, and perhaps the weakest argument, is the question of national emergency. But, it very credible to argue that this was a national emergency, given the numerous US bases in the Middle East, and the fact that the US embassy in Libya was evacuated under threat of attack. Perhaps not a strong position under (3), but credible nonetheless. But that is the least important point.

The more important concern is whether there existed unambiguous statutory authorization under (2). Frankly, the statutory authorization for taking action in Libya and involving US forces is clear - the UN Security Council resolution.

US law authorizes the President to negotiate a special agreement or agreements with the Security Council which is subject to the approval of Congress (22 U.S.C. § 287d). The agreement or agreements may provide for the numbers and types of armed forces, their degree of readiness and general location, and the nature of facilities and assistance, including rights of passage, to be made available to the Security Council on its call for the purpose of maintaining international peace and security in accordance with Article 43 of the Charter. Under 22 U.S.C, the President is not required to seek or obtain Congressional authorization pursuant to such special agreement or agreements to make available to the Security Council the armed forces, facilities, or assistance provided on its call in order to take action under Article 42 of the Charter.

Furthermore, Congress has specifically found that using forces under orders from the Security Council is a peacekeeping and enforcement activity rather than act of war; therefore, using US forces within the parameters and missions of those actions neither violate Congress' constitutional prerogative to declare war, nor require specific congressional authorization under the War Powers Act or otherwise.

Finally, under the supremacy clause of the US Constitution, international treaties are in and of themselves legally binding, and along with the body of the Constitution itself, become the supreme law of the land.

The UN Charter is an international treaty to which the US is bound pursuant to the Constitution. The Security Council resolution was not an act of war – regardless of how opponents would like to characterize it for political purposes.

Then, of course let’s not forget the other applicable treaty: NATO. For the sake of argument, even if we accept the legally incorrect interpretation that the War Powers Act applied to Libya at the time US forces first began enforcing the Security Council resolution, the fact remains that 8 or 9 days later, on 4 April, the whole operation was placed under the command of NATO. U.S. involvement was restricted to background noise: support to the NATO-led operation with intelligence, logistical support, and search and rescue assistance and aircraft assisting with the suppression and destruction of air defences in support of the no-fly zone as well as (from 23 April), precision strikes by UMVs in support of the NATO efforts. The notion that the War Powers Act supersedes yet another international treaty approved by Congress is so absurd as to reveal the true nature of anti-interventionists endless complaints – political points and a dislike of any type of military intervention – nothing more.

Furthermore, by pointing to the 60 day deadline under the War Powers Act, which is nevertheless overridden by the UN resolution and NATO treaty obligations, many critics conveniently ignore that the first notification to Congress establishing the date for running the clock on the 60 days is irrelevant or, at worst debatable in connection with the effectiveness of the War Powers Act provision since President Obama’s notification applied to a different action. That mission ended before the 60 days expired and exactly at the point when it was turned over to NATO. The US can choose or not, in these circumstances, to take part in the NATO operation (as Germany declined to do from a military standpoint). But, that is a completely different and is a political, not legal, discussion. In any event, from a legal standpoint the War Powers Act - even assuming it would apply - would have been automatically extended with Obama’ second notification to Congress.

It is also legally questionable whether the War Powers Act can constitutionally restrict any and all orders the President issues to the military, no matter how limited. Whether you like it or not, legally the President of the US has constitutional authority as Commander-in-Chief and he has the only authority to conduct foreign policy – particularly under approved international treaties.

Interpretation of international and domestic treaties and laws respectively in a vacuum is a dangerous proclivity best left to the media whose purpose is to simplify concepts so that they can be easily absorbed by a credulous public.

Financial Times Blows One - Or Benn Steil and Manuel Hinds Miss a Little Fact

2011-06-01T21:52:00.000+03:00

I’m not an economist. Fortunately. But, since I am involved in business I like reading the Financial Times because a) it gives a non-US centric view of the world; b) does not have the knuckle-dragging editorial policy of the WSJ; and, c) is printed on pink paper.

However.

This is a truly an astonishing mistake (behind free subscription wall). Benn Steil and Manuel Hinds claim that if the US Dollar were to lose its reserve currency status, then “the Federal Reserve would…be forced to operate under external constraints...[T]he US would no longer be able to cover its current account deficits just by conjuring dollars, it would also have to issue debt in euros...”

I expect this sort of idiocy from the moth-brained Republicans in the US and particularly from the insane right wing, but not from the FT. Does the UK have this “constraint”? How about any country in the Eurozone? Since when does reserve currency status dictate whether or not debt could be covered with the national currency?

What colour is the sky on their planet? And what was the FT thinking in letting this 1000% piece of inaccuracy go to press?

Bibi Go Home - and Stay There

2011-05-27T17:01:00.000+03:00

I'm into predictions lately - usually a big mistake for anyone, regardless (or perhaps because) of historical data backing up a prediction thereby invoking both a confirmation bias and selectively picking facts to fit ones own misconceptions. Nevertheless, reading and listening to the clips of both Obama's speach on the Middle East and a solution to the Palestinian homeland issue, I can only conclude that Bibi will do anything to maintain the status quo. He again has the arrogance to put himself on the same level as an American president, feels comfortable in lecturing and embarrasing the president of a one of the only countries to support Israel. Bibi and his party must go - and should never be invited to the US again except, perhaps as a tourist.

In September Palestine will unilateraly declare itself a nation. There will be a flood of recognition - particulalry where it counts the most, Europe. Bibi and his "greater Israel" party had better learn how to negotiate, give up stolen lands and make peace or get out of the way unless they want Israel to become a pariah.

The installation of the Netanyahu regime has been the worst possible outcome for Israel. They have provided neither peace nor security. They have never let go of the dream of a greater Israel which is resulting in a borderless Israel doomed by demographics. If this government continues to remain in power, then it's last friend will be in Washington - and that ever so tenuous because US interests are NOT Israels.

Rtako Mladic - Another Murderer Found (finally)

2011-05-27T15:46:00.000+03:00

Here's an idea. Give former Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic to the widows and mothers in Srebrenica. Invite the people of Sarejevo to participate in whatever they all deem appropriate for this unrepentant, facsistic, bigoted murderer.

Belarus Does the Cheshire Cat

2011-05-24T20:27:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

President Lukashenko of Belarus has always wanted to be part of Russia. To run it, actually. Well, 50% of that dream may come true. Well, he won't be running it.

Since, as one foreign diplomat put it last week, Belarus is heading into Zimbabwe territory, Belarus won't need to merge with Russia. Russia will simply buy it at the bargain price of a $3 billion bailout. Belarus and the Cheshire Cat (without the wit).

Good night, Mr. Lukashenko. You'll love the CIS presidency.

Saleh the Indespensable

2011-05-24T19:53:00.000+03:00

Dictator in Chief Saleh after 32 years in power in Yemen certainly knows how to shoot himself in the foot. There can be no doubt that his second about-face, refusing to sign the deal brokered by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, United States and the EU in which he would step down, did not improve anyone’s mood in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Washington, London or Brussels – not to mention the opposition on the streets. But, then, arranging for his armed supporters to surround the foreign delegation resulting in the UAE ambassador to fly home in a rage was monumentally stupid.

What is it about these petty little rulers who believe that their position is an entitlement? This is like Africa – Uganda, Zimbabwe and Cote d”Ivoire come immediately to mind. In the case of Yemen, Saleh is now saying that if he steps down then al Qaeda will fill his shoes. Does he think his powerful friends are blind? Yemen has several tribal conflicts going on some of which al Qaeda finds advantageous to promote. However, estimates are that there are about 300 al Qaeda operatives in the country out of a population of 23 million. That’s hardly a takeover threshold and the number of supporters he ordered out into the streets yesterday could easily handle the miserable gang of terrorists hiding out in the mountains.

Just as the GCC under Saudi command entered Bahrain to crush the (quite legitimate) rebellion in that kingdom, perhaps they can balance the scales and just remove Saleh now that he has shown that he is incapable of rational behavior and is a destabilizing influence in the region.

France, Conspiracy, DSK and Heads in the Sand

2011-05-22T22:04:00.000+03:00

I find the fact that 57% of France believes that DSK was a victim of a conspiracy really odd. But, I am astonished that 70% of the self-styled Socialists believe it to be true.

This must, somehow, be good for the Eurozone.

Rapturus Interuptus

2011-05-22T21:59:00.000+03:00

I looked at my watch on the 21^st. It was past 6PM (PST) and I thought: “Hey. How come I didn’t get any good stuff from Rapturite Central? Damn.”

Armageddon by time zone. Maybe next year or, better, whatever century the Mariners come close to winning a World Series. Forever is a long time ,though.

I bet the "Saved" all vote Republican anyway. Fits with their science and general IQ.

Khartoum and South Sudan - War?

2011-05-22T21:53:00.000+03:00

I have to admit I was surprised by the relative peaceful separation between North and South Sudan. South Sudan officially begins its history as a new country in July and my earlier fears that this would be the “surprise war” of the year seemed unjustified (I am happy to say). That may be changing.

The BBC reported yesterday that the Northern Sudanese army had seized the valuable Abyei region claimed by South Sudan, allegedly in response to an attack. Let’s be clear what this is about. Oil. The Abyei area is where the oil is located for what was once Sudan. Taking the disputed territory prior to the official date of independence is an attempt to impose a fait accomplis. The river forming the southern border of Abyei is the northern demarcation line – but Khartoum is likely looking for an excuse to cross over and take the entire oil producing region. The conflict could escalate rapidly, particularly if the South Kordofan state decides it has had enough of Sharia law and the imposition of Arab culture on what is an African area.

And this is the crux of the matter next to the oil. The war between the south and the north has been going on since the late 1970s or earlier. It is one of an Arab, Islamic system trying to destroy the African culture. In the south they are black, in the north they are not. This is an ancient clash beginning with the Muslim conquests of North Africa in the 8^th century and although its manifestations have modulated historically, that too may change as the 10,000 or so troops making up part of the South Sudan army come from South Kordofan. President Bashir needs to moderate his views.

The only real solution – at least with the current attitudes and government resident in Khartoum – is another split. Otherwise, the cost in blood in Darfur will look like a minor disturbance compared to what is to come. The West is clearly involved in both Sudan and South Sudan as is China, whose involvement in the oil regions is their primary concern. President Bashir has been indicted by the ICC and an arrest warrant remains outstanding. Like Gadhafi, if he sees his grip on another region of Sudan loosen, his reaction and actions will be very unpleasant.

A remote possibility exists that the Arab population in Sudan will have had enough of Bashir – but unlike the Egyptian army, any “Arab Spring” in Khartoum will be bloody. And despite the handwringing sure to follow, removal of the current regime and its system of law may be the necessary future of Sudan.

Israel Says No - Again

2011-05-20T14:17:00.000+03:00

The negative reaction to President Obama's speach by Benjamin Netenyahu - specifically the suggestion that the borders revert to pre-1967 with some adjustments, indicates that Israel under the current adminstration has no intention ever of recognizing the Palestinian right to a homeland. The excuse this time is that those borders were "indefensible". The justification for rejection is new and is based on the optics. It makes the Israeli position of holding on to illegal communities in the West Bank a non-issue. Or it attempts to do so. It is, on the surface, an eminently reasonable position.

It is not. Israel has no problem defending the pre-1967 border. It had successfully defended the border and then went on the offensive. This justification is meant to muddy the waters. The IDF is the most powerful military in the region and, furthemore, does not need to contend with either the Jordian or Egyptian military. Syria is contrained for two reasons. The first is that its angle of attack is extraordinarily poor. The second is that its military is a joke.

No. This Israeli government is unwilling to discuss a Palestinian state. And one will be coming by September.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn defended by Bernard Henri-Levy

2011-05-20T13:46:00.000+03:00

OK. This post is not about international affairs per se, but about Dominique Strauss-Kahn the former head of the IMF, or DSK since the world seems to have degenerated to abbreviations of everything (OBL comes immediately to mind – whatever). I suspect that the widely reported French reaction to his arrest did not dig very far into the French population, but picked what passes today as an intellectual to get their superficial views. Affairs are one thing. But, my feeling is that many in France find attempted rape and sexual assault by anyone to be repulsive. They just weren’t asked.

Let’s get something straight. All too often the powerful and wealthy don’t get the same treatment that is inflicted on those less strategically placed. That applies in the US as well as France. It not have been news if the alleged assault and attempted rape of the maid in New York were perpetrated by a non-white. He would still be arrested, handcuffed and dumped in NYC jail system – if not Riker’s. The networks would not have given the incident 30 seconds. So, the pure, unadulterated crap that the fake French philosopher Bernard Henri-Levy let drip from his lips is – or should be – an embarrassment to the French. But he has been embarrassing for some time now and a substantial sector in France thinks he is a philosophical genius.

BHL is a thundering bore, at times a moron and certainly a liar. His writings are that of a simpleton’s thoughts wrapped in flowery and obscure language to make him sound more intellectual than a Parisian taxi driver but with less grounding in truth . His reporting from Georgia during the Russian invasion, for example – flying in just in time for lunch – was an exercise in mendacity and fabrication. In a trip meant to visit Gori he reported he saw hundreds of Russian armoured and other military vehicles near the city when, in fact, there were 30; he saw Gori burning, when it was not. He was never in Gori. When his vehicle was stopped on the second attempt to reach the city he described the roadblock as manned by Russians when, in fact, they were Georgian. His trip and writings were a publicity stunt and did nothing to help the Georgians by, well, indulging in multiple lies. But I guess that’s what pseudo philosophers do and it is only one example.

Now BHL is defending his friend, DSK who is charged with a serious crime. But his defence is close to saying that “she had it coming” and that DSK is simply too important to be treated like a common criminal. OK. So his argument is essentially that the rich and powerful can do whatever they like and if they are caught and accused then we must treat them differently because they are…above everyone else. This is common, by the way, in France. He says that "nothing in the world can justify" Strauss-Kahn's treatment. Really? Seriously? Nothing? Well, how about murder? Would that justify the treatment? I guess the allegation of sexual assault is not bad enough – even though this is not the first time that DSK forced his attentions on a woman. Perhaps if one of his previous victims in France had not been bullied by her mother not to go to the authorities, subsequent incidents with DSK would not have happened.

So, BHL – take your self-aggrandizing attempts at philosophy and stuff it. You are a monumental fraud.

The Black Swan is Greece

2011-05-18T22:13:00.000+03:00

Here's a prediction - Greece is going to default on its Euro debt because no one believes it will. Greece will depart the Eurozone and start printing money because no one thinks it is possible. This will be followed - accompanied by denials from all the right places - by the collapse of the Euro experiment. Germans will celebrate.

Sell short.

Unwinding Europe

2011-05-18T21:47:00.001+03:00

Largely unnoticed and unremarked, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, otherwise known as the Visegrad Group, have decided to develop an independent military force, or battle group, under the command of Poland. The fact that this event passed unnoticed last week is perhaps the result of the Libyan intervention by NATO and upheavals in Syria and the riots in and around Israel by Palestinians with the usual over the top reaction of the IDF. Oh, yes, there was this little OBL thing as well.

The timing for the creation of the battle group could not be better for flying under the radar (although probably not lost on certain people to the north and east). This small event may be more significant than the lack of news coverage it has generated.

I’ve previously noted that the Russian invasion of Georgia and its aggressive remarks regarding the Baltics shortly thereafter would ring the alarm bells in Warsaw, as well as in Bucharest, Prague, Riga and Tallin among others. Those alarms have become real now that it is abundantly clear that the Germans have adopted the somewhat incoherent foreign policy of abandoning Europe and the United States for mother Russia and openly challenging the stability of the Eurozone with intemperate remarks by, among others, its naïve and inexperienced Foreign Minister. The French, for reasons still murky, sold a close support vessel - useful for invading countries by sea – to the Russians and the US has been so pre-occupied with winding down its ill-conceived Iraq adventure and continuing involvement in unappreciative Afghanistan that Eastern Europe has all but vanished from the foreign policy agenda. Further, given the financial woes in Europe, rumblings about when to join the Eurozone by the Visegrad Group have turned to questions of whether.

HIstorically, when Germany and Russia get close, bad things happen to those sandwiched between. Clearly, a repetition of 1914 and 1939 is remote, to say the least. However, Poland and the other Visegrad members have long memories of Russian dictatorship and the Kremlin’s proclivity for bullying it’s near abroad – not to mention what happened to Georgia. The abandonment of the idea of “Europe” by the Germans while embracing Russian offers of investment possibilities and, lately, taking Russia’s side regarding the no-fly zone vote in the UN imposed on Libya, has now resulted in the first steps of a defensive coalition mirroring the similar organization to Poland’s north.

There is no European defense force and NATO is increasingly irrelevant as it searches for a reason to be. Furthermore, NATO depends on unanimity – something the Poles are well aware of as a member. They are unsure as to what Europe’s response would be if Poland called for aid in the event the Russian empire seeks to become ever more aggressive.

So, slight as it appears, the creation of this new military force may be the tipping point for European political unity, much less integration.

How to Win a Donor Contract

2011-05-14T13:25:00.003+03:00

Here's a development test question (hypothetical):
Step 1 - An RFP is issued by a major donor organization for roll-out of an existing project.
Step 2 - Bidder A has been on the ground for over one year, working with a large local field team to implement a pilot designed to bring more people in a very poor country into the economy.
Step 3 - Bidder B has never been in the country before and has no experienced local staff.
Step 4 - Bidder B sends a senior executive to the bidder's conference.
Step 5 - Bidder B's senior executive has a private lunch with the director of the beneficiary entity of the project results just prior to the bidder's conference. It so happens that the director of the beneficiary had worked for Bidder B in the past and that said director's contract expires at the end of the roll-out period.
Step 6 - The beneficiary has shown active hostility toward Bidder A.
Step 7 - Bidder A is made aware of the private meeting.
Step 8 - The supervising project implementation unit is made aware of the private luncheon.
Step 9 - Bidder A submits its proposal according to the parameters of the RFP.
Step 10 - Bidder B submits its proposal outside of the parameters of the RFP resulting in a considerable cost reduction.
Step 11 - Bidder B is awarded the contract.

Question: What position would you take in determining if the award was tainted.

Supplementary Question: Find the word derived from Middle English (1250 - 1300) that best describes the result. (Hint - it is the past participle of corrumpare - latin)

Prize: A cookie

Qatar Walks Away from Yemen

2011-05-14T12:51:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US have been trying to find a way for President Saleh to gracefully step down in Yemen. Apparently no longer as Qatar abandoned the effort while pointing the finger at Saleh.

There are two possible scenarios now - Saleh becomes more isolated and is forced to leave or Saleh becomes more isolated and reacts with more violance.

In the end, the military units (now divided) will decide this.

Medvedev's Shot Across the Bow of the SS Putin

2011-05-14T12:39:00.000+03:00

Al Jazeera is reporting as I sit here that President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia could face civil war or stagnation if too much power was concentrated in the hands of one man, an apparent jibe at the prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

Keep in mind that there is a presidential vote in March 2012. Neither has announced, but it is beginning to look like a showdown.

Here's the money quote in response to a question about parliamentary democracy:

"An excessive concentration of power is indeed a dangerous thing: it has happened in this country many times and as a rule it has either led to stagnation or civil war.

We must not allow that. Attempts to build up power to fit a certain individual are dangerous. If they do not cause trouble today, you must not doubt that they will cause great problems for the country and for the individual in the not-too-distant future. We must think about this and remember the lessons of history."

This is the second veiled attack. The first came earlier this year, when Mr Medvedev slapped down Mr Putin for criticising western military intervention in Libya and then ordered Putin allies to leave the boards of state companies such as Rosneft.

Is Russia becoming interesting again?

Maverick McCain Slams the Republicans

2011-05-13T22:51:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

Congratulations to Senator John McCain (R - Ariz). It is about time, because Republican foreign policy includes torture as a tool and it is time the media called them on it. And yes, Cheney & Daughter, waterboarding is torture and someone should do it to you both.

OBL and the Handwringers

2011-05-13T22:15:00.000+03:00

The fatuous complaints by Osama bin Laden’s son, Omar, in the Paper of Record regarding the well-deserved killing of his father who not only admitted, but took pride in the murder of thousands in New York and thousands elsewhere deserve only derision and contempt. As a New Yorker, Omar, I can only applaud what happened. He was not executed and this was not an assassination and further, none of the action violated international law. It’s bullet point time (pun intended) for Omar and all the hand-wringers and New Germans out there as well as the amateur international law pundits and legal eagles at various human rights’ groups:

· Assassination is defined as murder for political purposes. OBL was not a political figure. He was head of an organization that had been systematically killing thousands of people.

· OBL was head of a command and control apparatus of a paramilitary organization which was at war with a sovereign state. The killing of enemy military personnel in time of armed conflict is not assassination.

· Over and above the fact that he got exactly what he deserved and the vast majority is happy he is dead (even in Pakistan), he was a lawful target under international law. The United Nations Charter firmly recognizes the right of a state to defend itself from attack. Bin Laden had demonstrated that he could and would attack the United States. He was also directing attacks against US troops in Afghanistan, who are there with UN sanction. He was doing this every day. Furthermore, Pakistani troops routinely invaded Afghanistan for purposes less urgent than self-defense in the 1990s.

· The ICC has no jurisdiction. Period

· The ICJ has no jurisdiction. Period

· The UN would need a Security Council resolution to bring this to the attention of the ICC, which otherwise has no jurisdiction. That’s about as likely as the Republican Party in the US doing something about oil companies and banksters.

So, Omar, crawl back under your luxury rock with your wealthy family in Riyadh or wherever in Saudi Arabia you live part time and allow us to forget you and your family name.

And while I’m on a roll – to everyone out there second and third guessing how the operation into Pakistan was planned and implemented and are now indulging in safely ludicrous discussions on international law, human rights’ issues and whether Pakistan’s sovereignty should have been breached, know this: You – all of you – know nothing about what went on in the back rooms or between the ISI, US military, GoP and CIA. New reports in The Guardian firmly indicate that not only did the GoP know about what was happening, but had been approving incursions for the past decade. And that’s only the scratching the surface.

You also know nothing about the operation itself except what is being released because it is none of your damn business and if you think there will ever be transparency in this type of operation then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you. Idiots.

System Down

2011-05-13T22:09:00.002+03:00

No system, no posts. Not my fault. Blogger hit a wall and crashed.

In Other News...

2011-05-09T22:13:00.000+03:00

In what undoubtedly is a massive understatement, at Victory Day celebrations President Lukashenko of Belarus announced that “the West” was the prime enemy of Belarus. Well, he’s probably right. But perhaps he should look over his shoulder back to the east where his government is in negotiations with Moscow for an economic bailout. Yet again. It is probably too much for the last dictator in Europe to swallow that the Russian Federation is only a reluctant friend of his government and probably wishes he would just go away.

Luki has been in a snit ever since the EU basically slammed the doors closed around him, his family and supporters with very effective economic sanctions. On April 25, he refused to travel to Ukraine for the 10^th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, which heavily impacted large chunks of Belarusian territory in and around the Pripyat and Gomel regions. Why refuse? Well, as part of the EU boycott, the current EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso had asked President Yanukovich not to invite him to a conference in Kiev on the consequences of the disaster. Ukraine complied with the EU demand, hoping he would still show up to the Chernobyl anniversary, but Luki had taken umbrage. It seems he is angry with Ukraine as well.

Considering he has vowed never to give up power, has jailed or exiled all opposition leaders and appears to be grooming his son for succession (remind you of Egypt?), perhaps he is losing sight of the fact that Moscow is not an ardent supporter, but treats him more as a useful clown; and, that Ukraine still has a saying that the reason Belarus was invented was to make Ukraine look good; and, that the EU simply wants him gone. When you’re a leader of a country with a bankrupt economy, surrounded by people who either don’t like you, actively seek your removal or, in the case of Russia, find you barely tolerable, perhaps an attitude improvement would be in order.

Will it happen? No. The former collective farm manager has dug in his heels and gone into hedghog mode. Everyone is stuck with him until the youth in the country explodes or Medvedev’s tolerance for fools thins sufficiently to arrange a long vacation – or both.

Making Up Facts

2011-05-07T13:36:00.000+03:00

Why is it that Republicans in the US find it necessary to make up facts? OK. That was rhetorical. We all know why.

But, from Condi Rice the statement (on MSNBC) that Canada took part in or even supported the invasion of Iraq is just another example, this time from the worst Secretary of State ever, of the type of flexible truth and memories of Republicans.

I suppose that for a person thrown into a world without the Soviet Union - when one's entire life of study was devoted to a defunct empire - this type of remark is acceptable and would not be subject to an embarrassing challenge by the media.

Academics and Practical Foreign Policy

2011-05-07T13:24:00.000+03:00

When I was in law school about a century ago, litigation tactics were a required area of study. Although I never liked litigation, I thought some of the anecdotes on opening and closing statements to a jury were instructive for daily use in almost any setting. One such story involved a pair of joint defendants accused of theft, each with his own counsel. One goal for the attorney representing one defendant is to create a reasonable doubt that his client had nothing to do with the actions of the other. To shorten, considerably, the story, it turns out that the co-defendant who committed the theft had lied while testifying about once stealing his father’s wallet (the details of which I’ve left out - sorry). In the closing statement the other attorney addressed the jury and told a story which, again shortened, goes like this. He and his entire family always went to the same restaurant on Sunday with his grandfather who always, without exception, ordered beef stew. This time he hesitated, but ended up ordering it again. He took a piece and immediately made a face as a piece of meat seemed to be off. Now, asked the attorney to the jury, what should he have done? Should he have rummaged through the stew, eating only the good parts or should he send the whole plate back? The answer was obvious. His client was acquitted.

So, what to about this. Paul Herrichs has his facts wrong, and I suspect deliberately. Washington, was not the driver behind the intervention in Libya. It was Europe or more precisely the French government. Washington was dragged into this “mess”. Furthermore, and again likely due to his particular academic shading, Germany was not smart in its position against intervention. It was stupid as it clearly shows its inability to work with other European members, not to mention NATO; this is the same sort of German cowardice/arrogance exhibited during the monetary crises in Europe. Germany is no longer a reliable ally to anyone – except to Russia.

His assertion that no one has a vital interest in Libya except its immediate neighbors is simply stupid. The Arab uprisings have an immediate impact on European security, economy and immigration policy. Libya is a European problem and is, indeed, of vital interest.

He dismisses the R2D issue by drawing a false comparison between Libya and Sudan. Libya and Rwanda. Libya and….Wake up or grow up Paul and come out of your academic shelter. This operation – started by France and the UK – was always about regime change once the chance was given through the entirely credible threats against the civilians of Benghazi and has been true in Misrata and other rebel held cities.

You don’t like Western intervention without a threat of a vital interest being threatened? Your definition of vital for France and Italy is obviously not theirs. And while we are at it – what about Australian intervention in East Timor?

He finally claims that the Libyan intervention fails on all counts. Really? When the author sets up the criteria, does the term “straw man” come to mind? The fact is, like the closing argument to the jury, when one piece of the puzzle is tainted, why should we accept the conclusion?

Paul should stay in his ivory tower and read a little history of the region and get his facts straight. If anyone is the rookie, it is he.

Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Death of bin Laden

2011-05-05T18:00:00.000+03:00

If you’ve noticed a dearth of postings it’s because I’m busy with my day job. I’ll be posting more often once the frenetic pace abates a bit.

Now that OBL & Son are defunct, several items of a more important practical nature need to be reviewed. At the top of the list are Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The elimination of OBL is an opportunity for the US to declare victory in Afghanistan, saddle-up and move out. As I have always maintained, the surge advocated by General Petraeus and largely implemented by the US, was the wrong way to go. It has not been a success and since the original objective of the mission was to destroy al Qaida and take Afghanistan off the table as a safe base for jihadist training, the US and NATO have succeeded, it is time to leave. The mission was never to nation-build.

Furthermore, the mission to kill OBL deep inside Pakistan was undertaken by a small, elite team – not 35,000 or so boots on the ground. The justification for the surge appears to be based on the experience learned in Iraq. That was never a good idea considering the results in that ill-advised war. However, rather than indulging in the surge method of warfare (which always struck me as something you do when you’re on the ropes) or even COIN in Afghanistan the US should have focused on tracking and killing terrorists in Afghanistan with discrete and rapid missions, including from the air. That was V.P. Biden’s advice but because Petraeus was equivalent to Zeus by the Very Serious People in the Beltway, his advice absolutely had to be followed otherwise the world would end. So, the opportunity to agree with Karzai is sitting there like low hanging fruit. Pull out – and do it before the current target of 2014.

A rapid draw down in Afghanistan has a bag full of advantages, not the least of which is that it would save lives. And then there is the money. The budget deficit in the US would get some relief, particularly in combination with the withdrawal from Iraq. It would free-up the US military to actually pay attention to other areas of the world – or better yet – take a rest from patrolling the borders of the empire. It would swiftly cut short the messianic tinged nation-building endeavor into which the conflict has morphed. Not least, none of us would need to listen to the ungrateful whining of the corrupt Mayor of Kabul, Karzai.

Pakistan is a different issue. It is inconceivable that someone very high on the food chain in the Pakistan military or the ISI did not know that OBL was sipping Coke and Pepsi in a huge, multi-million dollar compound with 6 meter walls, close to the West Point of the country and the most fashionable golf course in the north - all 150 kilometers from the capital. How Pakistan is approached, however, will depend on the draw down in Afghanistan and what the US wants to accomplish in the region.

Pakistan is paranoid about India and Indian activities in Afghanistan. The generals see it as an encirclement campaign and will look to China and Iran for help. Pakistan is also beset by its local Taliban while opposing the Taliban in Afghanistan – for now. That may change as the US withdraws and Pakistan’s secret service decides the Afghan Taliban are useful. However, Iran loathes the Afghan Taliban for a variety of reasons – not the least of which is their particular brand of Islam. However, Pakistan’s military is still very reliant on US largess. Even as it becomes an economic and political basket case and becomes overall weaker compared to its heavy hitting neighbor India, the military will want their toys.

However, US foreign policy may be able to disenthrall itself regarding the perceived need to be nice to Pakistan and Afghanistan based on their fear mongering about al Qaeda. Given the swift insertion, action and withdrawal of a tightly organized team to kill OBL the US should wake up to the notion that it does not need Pakistan and Afghanistan as much as they led the US to believe – with significant help from the Republicans. The leverage this produces is huge. Back in the good old days (that’s a joke) when Kissinger and Nixon were around making trouble, Turkey’s generals were snubbing their collective noses at the US regarding missile deployment in Turkey. Kissinger, with considerable risk, basically said that the US clearly saw no reason to indulge the Turkish government if they did not want the help of the US. The same should be said of Pakistan and Afghanistan. What is more important in the region – India or Pakistan? In all of eastern and central Asia, does US foreign policy need to pander to the whims and blackmail of Islamabad, Kabul or, for that matter, Dushanbe and Bishkek?

The death of OBL, and the means of its accomplishment should provide US foreign policy with far more flexibility and allow it to focus on more important issues than the threats from some 3rd rate terrorists who have managed – again with the help of the Republicans – to get American citizens give up basic Constitutional liberties with every little radio and tape broadcast of meaningless threats. If anything, the al Qaeda central command (long gone and now decapitated) and all the little franchises have managed to show that many Americans are, quite simply, cowards and willing to give up all their democratic rights for security regardless of how remote the threat. As Benjamin Franklin said: They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

So the killing of OBL opens up a range of opportunities for US foreign policy and withdrawal from Afghanistan will put Pakistan and Afghanistan on notice so they may adjust to a new world of interaction with their neighbors.

Osama Bin Laden and Son are Dead

2011-05-02T18:42:00.000+03:00

As a New Yorker, all I can say is very well done Seal Team Six.

It Can't Happen Here...

2011-04-30T10:32:00.000+03:00

Famous last :words. The foreign policy of the US will take a Nazi like turn if any Republican supported by their core is elected President. The latest from The Donald regarding China: "Listen you mother f***ers we're going to tax you 25 percent,"...

For the record, The Donald has a clothing line that is made in China. He is a buffoon. A hypocrite. A dangerous loose cannon who thinks the US can act alone in the world. Just like the white, Christian Taliban of Santorum, Palin and Huckabee. Watch out world, here they come, guns and bigotry blazing.

Six White Rabbits for Titus Pullo

2011-04-30T09:54:00.000+03:00

Image via Wikipedia

In Bishkek, parliamentarians sacrificed six sheep to drive out the demons promoting dissention in the parliament. OK. Whatever works. After all, the governor of Texas asked people to pray for rain. He probably should have asked native Americans to perform a ceremony to produce rain (except American religious bigots don't like other belief systems). Sacrifices, even promises of future ones, worked for Titus Pullo who swore to sacrifice white rabbits to escape execution for striking a senior officer. At least in Bishkek they ate the sheep and distributed some to the poor - something that would never happen in Texas.

Syria Unravels

2011-04-30T09:35:00.000+03:00

About three weeks ago I asked a friend in Damascus whether anything serious was beginning in Syria. Only minor demonstrations in the south were then taking place, but given the upheavals elsewhere, I thought it would be interesting to get a local perspective. The answer was short – and I expect deliberately so – “not much happening…all is quiet, really”. No longer and he is heading to Canada on other business hoping that everything will settle down when he returns in a month. The problem is that Syrian demonstrations are likely to get worse this weekend and particularly on May 1^st and May 6^th, both of which are national holidays, with the latter being the “day of martyrs”.

From what I can gather, this did not start as a political movement aimed at removing Bashar al-Asad. Rather, it was almost purely the result of economic issues and calls for lifting the emergency laws in force for about 40 years. Now, however, so many people have been killed by the regime that every relative of every person killed is out for blood. Tribal traditions are rising to the top and although Asad himself was never the original target, that is rapidly changing. People are angry.

Given the severity of the crackdown by the government it is unlikely, but not impossible, for the government to fall. Should that happen, the politics of the region would be shaken, not stirred. Syria is an important player whose instability or change in government would have a profound affect. Syria is a key transit point for Iranian support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Loss of the transit would seriously and adversely impact Iranian plans for the Levant. Israel also needs to be concerned since, although a front-line state and hardly in a talking mood with Israel, it was at least stable. The Turkish policy of a peaceful neighborhood, not to mention an vibrant economic zone with Turkey reestablishing its presence in the Levant at the expense of Iran would rapidly disintegrate. Iran may feel it necessary to become more overt in its take-over of Iraq, leading to trouble in the Kurdish north. In other words, an unstable Syria would create a mess.

Syria has also pushed Bahrain to below-the-fold status as the GCC continues to crush the rebellion there. Many have characterized this as a sectarian revolt of Shiite against Sunni. That’s convenient, but not entirely accurate, until now. It may have morphed into sectarianism, but the Shiite majority suffers from severe economic and political discrimination. A less discriminatory environment and more economic opportunities for Shiites might have avoided the entire revolt. However, the loud sectarian voices emanating from Iran have solidified the Shiite-Sunni divide. Active interference – hinted at the other day by the commander of the Revolutionary Guard in Iran – would result in a war with Saudi Arabia and, since the US 5^th Fleet is based in Bahrain, with US forces taking part. It is no secret that Iran really, really wants the US Fleet out of the Arabian Gulf. One can only hope that the civilian government in Tehran can keep the Republican Guard on a short leash because the consequences of an Iranian attack in Bahrain would have huge economic, political and military repercussions. It would also be a gift to the neo-cons and Netanyahu as the US would be forced into action against Iran’s formidable conventional army.

Syria is important to watch as the government moves in with tanks to snuff out the revolt. But political change is coming in Damascus whether Asad prevails or not and the Iranians are understandably concerned that their policies in the region could rapidly unravel – and not to their benefit.

One if by land...two if by sea - The British are Coming

2011-04-20T11:22:00.000+03:00

The British are putting advisors into Benghazi and the CIA has long been in the field. There is no turning back now and no one can argue that NATO and the GCC have not taken the side of the rebels against Colonel Qadaffi, sons and supporters. This is regime change time and the only reason NATO and others are in it up to their air intakes is that the revolution against the regime was failing. Revolutions fail all the time but since no one really liked Qadaffi and the rebels were getting their collective asses kicked by tribes not favourably disposed toward them, Europe’s military stepped into the breach.

I have repeatedly asked “what now?” from the beginning of the implementation of UNR 1973. I reject the arguments that the resolution did not authorize attacks on ground targets. Those arguments are either politically motivated (Russia, China) or ignorant (some anti-war-no-matter-what innocents, and the African Union as a whole). The resolution clearly said that all necessary measures could be taken and anyone who thinks a “no-fly” zone does not involve ground attacks is, frankly, a moron.

Nevertheless, here’s the question again. What now? What we are seeing is a British decision to send British advisors to help the rebels win. Downing Street may have advised NATO and sought what amounts to a ‘no objection’, but the insertion of military officers was a national decision, taken outside of NATO. It is, despite denials, boots on the ground and it is just the beginning if they want to truly defeat Qadaffi.

Clearly, the rebels cannot beat Qadaffi’s military on the ground at this point or in the near future. NATO airstrikes can only accomplish what airpower historically has always accomplished with absolute control of the sky – establish the conditions for the boots on the ground to crush any defense. But, NATO is not going in with troops – or at least not those from Germany, a supremely unreliable Western ally. The British, however, may have opened the door for the French because something has to be done about the reduction of Misrata sooner rather than later. Qadaffi’s army will likely abandon the use of tanks, which have become nothing if not moving coffins, and hit the ground. Qadaffi is fighting for survival now that he knows most everyone is out to get him. What now? NATO is stuck to the fly-paper. Expect the intervention to escalate rapidly because the revolution, gentlemen, has failed, and negotiations which premise Qadaffi remaining in power are a non-starter.

Donald Trump's Foreign Policy and Standard & Poor's Conspiracy

2011-04-19T16:38:00.000+03:00

Since I’ve been somewhat occupied, my postings have been few lately. Fortunately, as far as the foreign policy mustings of the Donald Trumpster type, Dan Drezner writes so I don’t have to. The thundering idiocy of The Donald is so bad as to be comic. I hope he gets the Republican nomination if only to make Rove’s head explode.

Speaking of idiocy – will someone investigate if Standard & Poor's is being pressured/paid by the banks and Republicans to issue stupid comments like reducing the US rating because of the deficit in the US? S&P blew it completely in the lead-up to the 2008 crash by continuing to issue gold plated ratings to all the banks and hedge funds until the roof caved-in. They should be jailed for that.

Oh – one minor thing – the US cannot default on debt denominated in its own currency. Econ 101. Your welcome.

Out of Africa...Again

2011-04-19T16:31:00.000+03:00

The Nile Rising from Lake Victoria - Uganda

I am almost out of Uganda after four previous attempts in the last two weeks. Actually, I found Kampala can be very pleasant once out of the downtown area – lots of green and flowers and not far from a resort on Lake Victoria – built and operated by an Indian – that screams money. The photo is of the source of the White Nile, which merges with the Blue in Sudan and heads to the Med.

The economic dichotomy here between the “haves” and “have-nots” is, to say the least, wide – but equally interesting is the level of economic activity by everyone. If there is a vacant piece of dirt along a busy road someone has established a shop. Furniture, chickens, tiny grocery shops, iron mongers, car washes – anything that anyone needs. Local roads are unpaved and look like the surface of the moon – but passable. Hawkers walk among the truly dreadful traffic jams (usually caused when the traffic police take control) selling electric mosquito swatters the size of small tennis rackets, food, maps – everything. Everyone is almost too polite.

This then is a country ruled by one person essentially for more than 25 years. Rising fuel and food prices have last week resulted in demonstrations which have not ended well for the demonstrators. The leading opposition politician was shot in the arm while leading a “walk to work” protest and then whisked away. I don’t know and certainly have not been here long enough to make any judgment on how this may end.

With the unpaved roads, poor housing in many areas and high food prices, it is obscene that the government is paying Russia over $1.5 billion for top-of-the-line fighter jets to combat terrorists from Somalia. Terrorists are not fought with an air-force – more could be spent on police and border patrols not to mention paving every road in the country. And one bombing last year does not make a terrorist campaign.

Anyway, I’m leaving for Qatar on Thursday and will miss the place a little.

Domestic Politics Does Affect Foreign Policy

2011-04-13T11:52:00.000+03:00

Over at Dan Drezner’s site there was an interesting discussion concerning what, if any, impact domestic politics, in the context of a US government shutdown over the budget, has on foreign policy. It is not as narrow as the post suggests. The budget issue in the US is only one political piece of the puzzle – a big one, but in general it forms only one component over the struggle for political dominance in the US. The question posed is thus what effect do domestic political decisions have on foreign policy in any country. In the context of the budget issues in the US, the professor takes the position that it has no effect.

I can’t agree. In the US, this battle is only one skirmish in the larger war being waged by Republicans on behalf of their contributors and right wing core supporters. It has implications for the wider war and domestic politics almost always impacts foreign policy because it affects the players even if the policy does not extend beyond the borders.

Take a look at France. France has often intervened in its former African colonies – in Chad against Qadaffi’s invasion, in Gabon (twice) and the Central African Republic (an incredible 5 times, the last in 2006). They have been in Cote d”Ivoire since 2003 – so the current cooperation with the UN peacekeeping forces to remove Gbagbo from power after his defeat in the election is simply a continuation of their involvement. However, the aggressive stance recently taken by Nicolas Sarkozy in Africa in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire may also be seen as a result of his low standing in the polls. It can’t hurt since the rise of the French right poses a serious threat to his incumbency. Sarkozy, despite being correct about Libya, is clearly attempting to boost France’s (aka, his image) to increase his standings for the elections next year.

Chancellor Merkel’s policies toward Russia are clearly influenced by domestic affairs. Like keeping the lights on and supporting domestic manufacturing. The German economy is heavily dependent on Russia and Russian energy. A faltering economy costs her politically.

Does anyone need a reminder about China’s internal monetary policies and their international impact?

In the US, domestic politics has a clear impact on foreign policy – and sometimes results in positions that are against US interests. One need look no further than Israel where any sign of slipping support draws the instant wrath of the evangelicals. The power of evangelicals over Republicans is clearly effective and has helped isolate the US while, in the case of the Middle East, actually act against its interests Fortunately they do not have overwhelming power, but should they ever succeed in taking over the domestic political reins completely, then US foreign policy will become a threat to peace.

One need only look at the positions that someone like Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), arguably the dumbest person in the Senate courtesy of the people of Oklahoma. He was on the floor of the Senate backing Laurent Gbagbo, who refused to step down after losing an internationally certified election in November in Cote d’Ivoire. Inhofe condemned the intervention of French and UN forces to install the internationally recognized elected president Alassane Ouattara. Want to know why? Domestic politics.

Can you say “C Street” the halfway house for fallen politico Christians, especially evangelical types who have been caught attending brothels, gaming houses etc? Right wing Christians support Gbagbo because he is Christian. Ouattara is Moslem. For evangelicals Muslim = bad, Christian = Good. That is, except if the Muslim is a dictator who supports and/or supplies oil to the US. The “C Street” gang and their nationwide followers support Gbagbo who has been on the US Christian right gravy train for a long time. Both he and his wife are evangelical Christians. They have attended the annual National Prayer Breakfast run by the Christian group called the Family. Pat Robertson’s Christian Broadcasting supports him. Domestic politics can drive foreign policy.

Dig deeper and you find that the Christian right supported Charles Taylor and Michelle Bachmann was against the ouster of Mubarak. Christian evangelicals applauded the death penalty for gays in Uganda. The Christian right has never met a brutal Christian they didn’t like.

So I disagree. Domestic politics can have, and has had, a serious and sometimes adverse effect on foreign policy in the US at least. The budget debates in the US are only a small part of the struggle for control which, depending on the winner, will ultimately impact foreign policy. So, for all you progressives out there in the US who sat on your collective assess and pouted like 6 year olds in the last election, this is what will come to pass if you do it again. Inhofe, Michelle “I promise only one term, maybe” Bachmann, Huckabee and all their compatriots will be in control of domestic and foreign policy. Domestically, science will disappear and affect US international competiveness as children are taught the planet is around 5,000 years old and dinosaurs lived with humans; social programs for the poor and elderly will vanish; foreign policy will revert to military intervention first, middle and last and the income gap will only become worse.

African Union Damaging Interference

2011-04-11T10:23:00.000+03:00

As mentioned in the sidebar, we normally don't take sides unless provoked. Consider me provoked.

I have little time to spare from my day job, but watching al Jazeera here in Kampala, where there is a Qaddafi Mosque and the president has said he would accept him in exile, I can’t help but be appalled, again, by the antics of the vaunted African Union in its attempt to promote negotiations between Qaddafi and the rebel movements.

The delegation led by President Jacob Zuma of South Africa is a joke. They have presented a clearly absurd plan, benefiting only Qaddafi (naturally immediately accepted by him) and are now bouncing along the road to Benghazi with Qadhafi’s approval to tell the rebel leadership that the murderer and dictator should be reasoned with. How convenient. Qaddafi funds about 15% of the AU’s budget and their hands are in his pockets so they don't care that his soldiers are firing deliberately at civilians and into their neighborhood. They don't care the UN voted to protect rebelious civilians and that neither Russia nor China chose to oppose the resolution. They know what's best for Africa. How's that working out?

They did nothing when he invaded Chad, brutally occupying the north and initiating the beginning of the Darfur crises back in the late 1980s following up with full support to Khartoum – Muslims against black Christians and animists. They said nothing when he indulged in the vilification of black Africans in Libya, making them targets of his followers. They said nothing as he supported Charles Taylor, among others of similar ilk. Both the South African government and the African Union are, quite simply, a useless bunch of prevaricators intent on preserving the status quo. They have done so with a dictator and murderer in Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, simply because prior to his slippage into senility, depravity, racism and lust for power, he was a heroic front liner. They have done damn little in Somalia, nothing in Mozambique and taken little action in the DRC. Now sub-Sahara Africa wants to end a revolution in Muslim, Arab North Africa which could care less about below-the-equator states except as a market. What buffoons.

The rebels in Benghazi should treat Zuma and his camp followers as the ludicrous coterie of paid-for sycophants they are and send them packing. Zuma can deal with the pressing issues of South Africa in Pretoria.

Criminal Stupidity on the American Right

2011-04-02T13:08:00.000+03:00

I listened to Obama’s speech last week on CNN here in Doha. While not agreeing with all of it, it was a well-reasoned statement of intent and limitations of actions for US foreign policy. Something that was located in some black hole when Bush was in power. It spoke to working with allies and rule of law – not the go-it-alone crap spewed by the neo-cons and religious right allies for eight horrendous years, stupendous human cost and which broke the financial stability of the US.

The Republican and Donald Trump response was predictable as well as displaying, yet again, their leadership’s gross, criminal ignorance. Some examples:

Michelle Bachmann. What more can be said of her deep level of dumb? Does she even know where Libya is without some ten-year old telling her? This is what she said:

“I have been very reluctant to see the United States to go into Libya. For one thing, we haven’t identified yet who the opposition even is to Qaddafi. We don’t know if this is led by Hamas, Hezbollah, or possibly al Qaeda of North Africa. Are we really better off, are United States, our interests better off, if let’s say Al-Qaeda of North Africa now runs Libya?”

As Juan Cole has pointed out, Hamas is a Palestinian organization with no affiliates or subsidiary groups. Al Qaeda of North Africa is a joke. Hezbollah is Shiite – there are none in North Africa. None, Michelle, are involved in Libya. They either have no interest or would not be welcome. Please, Michelle, STFU, go crawl under a rock and let adults run things.

Donald Trump. Donald. Stick to real estate and co-authoring self-improvement business books. Because you know nothing about international affairs and it shows. His claim that Iran might be involved is so incredible that it ignores Iranian political reality. Aside from being Shiite they condemned the no-fly zone and foreign interference. They are likely more concerned about Bahrain (Shiite majority) and Yemen (in the backyard of their enemy Saudi Arabia) but they have no dog in the Libyan fight. They are not on the side of the rebels.

The less said about the other Republican leaders, including that tired old white man, John McCain, and their concept of how US foreign policy should be conducted in general and in Libya in particular, the better. Last year, because of lies and bigotry as well as the petulant 2 year olds' on the American left, many Americans voted these morons into power and are now paying the price - and there is a price. One can only hope that the protests against the new Republican leadership in Wisconsin spread throughout the country, getting them out of positions of power sooner rather than later. It is frightening and a threat to the world that these pandering idiots will likely take power and continue the US decent into banana republic status.

The Trees of Kabul

2011-04-02T13:01:00.000+03:00

This is a guest post by a long-time friend, Philip Clark who is based in Kabul - I will be in Uganda for a week - so no posting.

Kabul, 27 March – On 7 March I watched Gen. Petraeus – whom I had just met and to whom I’d immediately made a joke – and Ambassador Eikenberry plant trees in a Kabul park during a snow storm. The show was heavy and very welcomed but it apparently was the last of the Kabul season, and, almost at once, the weather changed.

Day by day, we could see the snow diminish from nearby Television Hill, a former Taliban holdout where the local stations now have their towers. The grass – that which hadn’t been crushed to straw underfoot – turned immediately green. The scattered rose bushes sprouted leaves. Within two weeks, I spotted two dandelions and a daffodil in full bloom. From our car, we could see a cluster of cherry trees, safely sheltered behind a wall, in riotous pink flower. During the tree planting, municipal workers had shivered in their tunics – green for park workers, orange for sanitation crews -- but now we were in shirtsleeves as we dashed between the AID and State compounds.

The farther, higher peaks still are resplendent in their white coatings, glowing in the sun, and that’s good. Late-melting snow will provide water for irrigation over a longer stretch of the growing season than rain, not all at once, when much would be wasted or, even worse, cause flooding. Now the concern is the sudden switch from winter to spring will foment early thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can bring hail, which could destroy just-sprouted crops, when they are most vulnerable. Like farmers everywhere, Afghans have plenty to worry about, even without deliberate Taliban bombings and accidental NATO strikes.
The tree planting was a joint effort of USAID and the International Security Assistance Force the military coalition here. USAID is doing the bigger part but both the general and the ambassador made speeches, as did the mayor of Kabul and several Afghan government ministers.

My joke came when Gen. Petraeus arrived at his seat in the front row. We were in the second. He introduced himself first to the deputy director of the Office of Democracy and Governance – my bailiwick – Maria Barron, then to the chief and deputy of our implementing partner behind the tree project. (Implementing partners are the firms that actually do our work. We publish “request for proposals” for projects, then let contracts to implement them.) All three had identified themselves with the project, and Maria specifically said she was from AID but when Petraeus came to me, and I did the same, besides greeting me, as he had the others, he thanked me for buying the trees. Maybe he realized the implementers were hired guns, but why not thank Maria? Unconscious sexism, perhaps? I didn’t know, of course, but when he spoke to me, I replied, “General, I did it only because Maria told me to.” Petraeus was unfazed.

From the hill-top park, we had a nearly magnificent view of Kabul and the surrounding mountains. The panorama was diminished by cloud cover and mist but was still impressive. Unlike so much of our work, the tree-planting project provided instant gratification. We could see thousands of saplings ready to plant. The result of our investment was obvious. What will become of Afghan democracy, of women’s education and civil rights, of the Taliban and war lords remains to be seen but right now we could see a park full of trees because of us.

The dignitaries had been expected to plant a tree or two each but they threw themselves into the task with gusto. Perhaps they, too, enjoyed seeing an unambiguous, concrete result. As traditional musicians wandered from sapling to sapling, serenading each one, the ambassador, the general, the mayor and Afghan ministers planted tree after tree, while photographers – amateur and professional paparazzi -- swarmed around them, stampeding from each tree to get shots of the big shots wielding shovels. We had an official embassy photographer and television crews. The assistant mayor for technology recorded the event on his iPad, and dozens of embassy and city employees snapped pictures with their cell phones. It was fun, and that’s probably something neither the ambassador nor the general gets to say here very often.

Germany - Stupidity has Consequences

2011-03-26T14:49:00.000+02:00

Just how useless and irrelevant to NATO and the European idea can Germany become? Apparently quite useless.

Deutsche-Presse reported last week that because NATO is taking over the UN mandated no-fly zone over Libya, and that NATO naval forces will patrol the coast as part of the arms embargo, Germany has withdrawn its ships from NATO command because it may be forced to fire a gun. If they are not going to use their military when requested, why don’t they just get rid of it? That would be the logical conclusion and would certainly save the German public significantly in the budget.

I know that Merkel is facing some tough elections – but this is just profoundly stupid on the part of Germany and reveals how rapidly useless they are to NATO or to their place in the West. Even the Green Party has criticized the move. What is more astounding is that Foreign Minister Westerwelle had wanted to vote against UN Security Council Resolution 1973 before Chancellor Merkel managed to convince him that an abstention was a better idea.
German politicians have been remarkably arrogant and not a little obtuse during the past year or two – from their muscle flexing over Greece to the extent suggesting that some Greek islands could be sold to pay for the economic mess and being as unhelpful as conceivably possible regarding the financial crises in the EU to slobbering over Russia and simultaneously irritating Poland and the Baltics. They want to run the EU in their (or Merkel's) image. This latest bit of arrogance should remind Poland, France, Spain and Italy just how contemptuous their neighbor can be of anything proposed by someone else.

To the extent that Sarkozy needs an election lift, comparing French initiatives in foreign affairs to those of the eternally cringing Germans can’t hurt his chances. It also indicates that perhaps other EU members take a hard look at German export centric policy and its foreign policy to the extent it affects its neighbors.

European Coalition Cracking?

2011-03-22T13:26:00.001+02:00

Europe is showing the cracks over the UNSC no-fly zone implementation as the US withdraws from its “leadership” position. Despite the hysterical, and in the case of Dennis Kucinich in the US, downright stupid, comments from US critics of the UNSC mission, the US has performed its stated policy perfectly and will vanish from the news as it has fired its last cruise missile. Now comes the interesting part in Europe.

France wants to continue to lead the charge in Libya and really is aiming to remove Qaddafi, one way or another. It does not want NATO involved as the operational structure of NATO would restrict French military activities – which are bent on regime change. Although a NATO lead would provide significant organizational assets, it would be a political mistake as that would make this purely a Western intervention despite the Security Council resolution. Italy wants NATO because it knows this will slow the regime change meme and result in a stalemate so it could continue to deal with Qaddafi. No one has asked how Qatari or other Arab forces would operate under NATO, whether wise or not, or if they would even agree to that arrangement.

So the maneuvering begins. Germany, as ever, is showing its inability to take part in anything with a combat role – making it more useless to NATO than ever except for base facilities. The German government will be suitably shocked at Qaddafi’s staged atrocities (something al Jazeera has already revealed as fake but credulity - deliberate or not - in some quarters rules). Like Italy, but for different reasons, it would support the lead role for NATO - if for nothing else than putting the brakes on France. As yet, it is unclear what positions Norway, Canada and the Arab League have on who should control the campaign, although in the case of the latter, getting rid of Qaddafi is high on the “to do” list.

Although I think that delivering the command and control to NATO is a bad idea on any number of levels, the decision of who will run the continuing campaign will be decided in a week or so – hopefully giving the French additional time to complete their agenda. If they are unable to take out the regime, and with the Libyan armor and artillery pretty much decimated, the regime will likely revert to an insurgency campaign involving urban terror campaigns and exhibits, when possible, of Western atrocities suitably staged with moveable military bodies dressed as civilians. This would mean a long haul campaign for which many (but not all) Europeans have never had any stomach and which will require a different approach.

Fortunately, very, very soon, the US will be out of the picture. Then little, if anything will be covered in the US because limited activities of logistical support to its allies is not exciting or controversial – unless critics on the left and right feel that support to US allies is not in its foreign policy interests. President Obama’s policy will have worked and other events will receive more play. Faux News can then go back to covering those nasty union people and any other pet anti-democratic project Murdoch and the Koch brothers have on their minds while CNN (in the US, not Europe or Asia) will simply get bored and go back to its normal useless news coverage of the latest flower shows. I suggest that people start viewing al Jazeera for continuing coverage if they so desire.