I find it amusing, but hardly surprising, that the new neocon meme is that the American foreign policy objective of promoting democracy in the Middle East espoused during the Bush administration and epitomized by the invasion of Iraq is now resulting in the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Aside from adjusting past events to conveniently constructed facts, this is patently absurd. No one expected the change in Tunisia. No one expected the events in Egypt. Neither is tied to anything the US did or did not do.
It is not only the height of vanity to believe this, but profoundly stupid. However, that will not prevent the meme from spreading in the US and result in acceptance by a substanital component of a credulous public which thrives on Faux News, perpetual war and belief in fantasy.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Southern Sudan
The hard work now begins in Southern Sudan. Almost 99% have voted for independence from Khartoum. In July, the world will inaugurate a new country but in the meantime the oil resources and transit agreements will need to be negotiated and that will not be easy.
An interesting note to all this is that demonstrations have been reported in Khartoum using Tunisia and Egypt as their inspiration, but have been controlled by the government. So far.
An interesting note to all this is that demonstrations have been reported in Khartoum using Tunisia and Egypt as their inspiration, but have been controlled by the government. So far.
Re-calibration
I hate predictions because they are invariably based on past events – and invariably wrong. Even stock traders hedge statements about the potential value of investments for investors by saying that past performance does not predict future performance. Having said that, I believe Mubarak will be out of office in a matter of days. Whether that produces a better or worse situation, both nationally or internationally, is anyone's guess.
The senior military officers of Egypt were in Washington last week. The army has taken over security and the police are off the streets. The army is very highly regarded in Egypt since the revolution in 1952 and for now hold all the cards. Will they be the broker for change or support Mubarak – who rose through the military establishment? The Muslim Brotherhood is the only organized political organization of the opposition, some factions of which are Islamisists of the Iranian kind. Will they end up running the country? Remember that the youth revolution against the Shah in Iran was secular and ended up being taken over by the religious extremists that have been running the country since then. Another Iran would be unacceptable to the West and particularly to the US and Israel. What happens then could be very, very bad for everyone.
US foreign policy in the region – in Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen – will be the most affected. The US is blinkered in its policy of unlimited support of Israel regardless of what the Israeli's do or don't. But these revolutions have nothing to do with Israel or the Palestinians and the risk is that US policy will be dictated, not by the underlying reasons behind the upheavals, but by Israeli views.
The problem with the changes that are coming in the Arab world is that it either will force a re-calibration of US policy in the Middle East or it will cement the relationship with Israel further. The first will be very hard and if Islamic regimes such as Iran's begin to spread, then Israel will say that peace is not justified. The peace treaty with Egypt and Jordan could be a victim of regime change and, if so, things could become extremely dangerous very fast.
An Islamic government in Egypt similar to Iran's would further impact the foreign policies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey as well. As I have said before, as the US withdraws from Iraq, these countries will need to adjust to the new reality. The Saudis will need to deal with Iran differently. Turkey will also need to adjust even though it is the only one of the three which does not need to worry about a popular revolution. Turkey has been attempting to assume a leadership role in the Middle East but has been stumbling since the whole game is new to them. It is likely that the turmoil and new government in Egypt will present Turkey with a huge opportunity to assert a leadership role if it can handle its initiatives with more subtlety.
The West – not just the US – has propped up oppressive Arab regimes for decades. Climbing down from that support will not be easy nor appreciated locally by either side of the revolutions. Egypt is a dictatorship with 40 million people in poverty, no jobs and now is witnessing its youth in the streets. Egypt has been controlled by one person for than 30 years. The revolution is driven by these issues, so far. But, that could change. I have talked with one young Egyptian stuck here in Maseru (of all places) who is trying to get back to Cairo and join in the revolt. He is a professional, young and not poor. He wants Mubarak and the government out but also worries about who will take over in their place. The Egyptian elite has never understood or listened to the youth of the country and it is paying the price. But, anyone who pretends to predict the future in Egypt or the rest of the Arab world is a fool. The only thing that can be predicted is that it is changing. It is also where I am going next in less than a month so I’ll be closer to the action.
The senior military officers of Egypt were in Washington last week. The army has taken over security and the police are off the streets. The army is very highly regarded in Egypt since the revolution in 1952 and for now hold all the cards. Will they be the broker for change or support Mubarak – who rose through the military establishment? The Muslim Brotherhood is the only organized political organization of the opposition, some factions of which are Islamisists of the Iranian kind. Will they end up running the country? Remember that the youth revolution against the Shah in Iran was secular and ended up being taken over by the religious extremists that have been running the country since then. Another Iran would be unacceptable to the West and particularly to the US and Israel. What happens then could be very, very bad for everyone.
US foreign policy in the region – in Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen – will be the most affected. The US is blinkered in its policy of unlimited support of Israel regardless of what the Israeli's do or don't. But these revolutions have nothing to do with Israel or the Palestinians and the risk is that US policy will be dictated, not by the underlying reasons behind the upheavals, but by Israeli views.
The problem with the changes that are coming in the Arab world is that it either will force a re-calibration of US policy in the Middle East or it will cement the relationship with Israel further. The first will be very hard and if Islamic regimes such as Iran's begin to spread, then Israel will say that peace is not justified. The peace treaty with Egypt and Jordan could be a victim of regime change and, if so, things could become extremely dangerous very fast.
An Islamic government in Egypt similar to Iran's would further impact the foreign policies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey as well. As I have said before, as the US withdraws from Iraq, these countries will need to adjust to the new reality. The Saudis will need to deal with Iran differently. Turkey will also need to adjust even though it is the only one of the three which does not need to worry about a popular revolution. Turkey has been attempting to assume a leadership role in the Middle East but has been stumbling since the whole game is new to them. It is likely that the turmoil and new government in Egypt will present Turkey with a huge opportunity to assert a leadership role if it can handle its initiatives with more subtlety.
The West – not just the US – has propped up oppressive Arab regimes for decades. Climbing down from that support will not be easy nor appreciated locally by either side of the revolutions. Egypt is a dictatorship with 40 million people in poverty, no jobs and now is witnessing its youth in the streets. Egypt has been controlled by one person for than 30 years. The revolution is driven by these issues, so far. But, that could change. I have talked with one young Egyptian stuck here in Maseru (of all places) who is trying to get back to Cairo and join in the revolt. He is a professional, young and not poor. He wants Mubarak and the government out but also worries about who will take over in their place. The Egyptian elite has never understood or listened to the youth of the country and it is paying the price. But, anyone who pretends to predict the future in Egypt or the rest of the Arab world is a fool. The only thing that can be predicted is that it is changing. It is also where I am going next in less than a month so I’ll be closer to the action.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Maneuvering in Lebanon
Image via WikipediaMore on the geo-politics later, but suffice it to say that the Saudi and Western plan for Lebanon is in shambles. That does not mean, however, that Iran and Syria have won and that particular marriage is not as strong as it seems.
PLO Debacle
The revelation in more than 1600 documents that the PLO was conceding, well, everything to the Israeli’s in order to gain control of a “state” is the end of the PLO as it has been known – or perhaps it will vanish like the Cheshire cat without the smile.
It should have been clear to everyone by now that Israeli had no intention of granting concessions to the two state processes, but would continue illegally seizing land for housing and crushing the rights of Palestinians. It had even privately obtained the PLO acquiescence to the new “state” without an army, navy or other military. In other words – no sovereignty. A sham. A continuation in perpetuity of Israeli apartheid.
Here’s a thought for the religiously fanatical in Hamas and Iran – recognize Israeli. Hoist them on their own petard. Recognition would remove the excuse that the US relies on to support Israel - to its own detriment -and would focus attention exclusively over Israeli policy of preventing statehood for Palestinians – the largest group of stateless people in the world. Use your brains and change the parameters of the game. Take the high ground.
It should have been clear to everyone by now that Israeli had no intention of granting concessions to the two state processes, but would continue illegally seizing land for housing and crushing the rights of Palestinians. It had even privately obtained the PLO acquiescence to the new “state” without an army, navy or other military. In other words – no sovereignty. A sham. A continuation in perpetuity of Israeli apartheid.
Here’s a thought for the religiously fanatical in Hamas and Iran – recognize Israeli. Hoist them on their own petard. Recognition would remove the excuse that the US relies on to support Israel - to its own detriment -and would focus attention exclusively over Israeli policy of preventing statehood for Palestinians – the largest group of stateless people in the world. Use your brains and change the parameters of the game. Take the high ground.
Busy Busy
Apologies for the light posting but I've been rearranging my working life and will be leaving Africa soon.
Posting resumes today.
Posting resumes today.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Russia's Roosting Chickens
Image via WikipediaMuch to my surprise, Brussels (but more likely Berlin) has been working tirelessly and quietly to remove the burden of Russian control over Europe’s (but actually Germany’s) severe dependence on gas from Siberia.
The European Union and Azerbaijan signed a deal Thursday in which Baku commits to supply Europe with "substantial volumes of gas," an agreement the EU said was an important step to reduce the bloc's dependence on deliveries from Russia.
Russia has used its energy resources as a weapon – not necessarily directly against Europe, but targeting Ukraine and Belarus. The strategy is aimed, and has largely succeeded, in assisting Moscow’s initial key foreign policy goals of regaining control of Ukraine and maintaining a thumb on Minsk. In doing so, however, Moscow alarmed Europe which needed to reduce gas imports from Russia before Russia began to use that same leverage to pressure the EU into ever more pro-Russian positions. The Kremlin’s energy gambit would allow it to loosen the support given by the EU to the Baltics, Poland and reduce other EU initiatives in the Caucuses and Central Asia. France, but not Germany, is immune to Russian pressure because of its huge nuclear energy facilities (a technology in which it is now the world leader).
The Russian move to bring Ukraine and the Caucuses back under its control was a key foreign policy goal of the Kremlin. The Russian Federation is a shell without Ukraine and the Caucuses is a buffer zone, like Belarus. The methods, however, were Putin’s. Without compunction, Putin’s Russia blatantly interfered in Ukrainian elections, invaded Georgia, signed virtually permanent military agreements with Armenia (outflanking Georgia and the West) and used disputes over gas pricing and transit fees with Ukraine to cut off gas supplies which happened to flow west. Europe, much to my surprise I admit, got the point and has started taking some action.
The faux democracy, single media environment of Russia built by Putin is now seeing some of its egg layers home to roost and one of them is named Nabucco.
The European Union and Azerbaijan signed a deal Thursday in which Baku commits to supply Europe with "substantial volumes of gas," an agreement the EU said was an important step to reduce the bloc's dependence on deliveries from Russia.
Russia has used its energy resources as a weapon – not necessarily directly against Europe, but targeting Ukraine and Belarus. The strategy is aimed, and has largely succeeded, in assisting Moscow’s initial key foreign policy goals of regaining control of Ukraine and maintaining a thumb on Minsk. In doing so, however, Moscow alarmed Europe which needed to reduce gas imports from Russia before Russia began to use that same leverage to pressure the EU into ever more pro-Russian positions. The Kremlin’s energy gambit would allow it to loosen the support given by the EU to the Baltics, Poland and reduce other EU initiatives in the Caucuses and Central Asia. France, but not Germany, is immune to Russian pressure because of its huge nuclear energy facilities (a technology in which it is now the world leader).
The Russian move to bring Ukraine and the Caucuses back under its control was a key foreign policy goal of the Kremlin. The Russian Federation is a shell without Ukraine and the Caucuses is a buffer zone, like Belarus. The methods, however, were Putin’s. Without compunction, Putin’s Russia blatantly interfered in Ukrainian elections, invaded Georgia, signed virtually permanent military agreements with Armenia (outflanking Georgia and the West) and used disputes over gas pricing and transit fees with Ukraine to cut off gas supplies which happened to flow west. Europe, much to my surprise I admit, got the point and has started taking some action.
The faux democracy, single media environment of Russia built by Putin is now seeing some of its egg layers home to roost and one of them is named Nabucco.
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