Russia's Fleet Returns

The Kuznetsov is the flagship of the Russian navy.  Although looks should never determine substance, I have to say that she looks pretty pathetic. Plus, she's making too much smoke - a sign the engines are not very efficient. The photo shows a Royal Navy frigate (a type about to be retired, I am told) shadowing the carrier as it passes through the English Channel on the way home from Syria.

Time to Cut the Egyptian Cord

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I have refrained from commenting on the US-Egyptian relationship breakdown which accelerated with the crackdown by Egypt on NGOs (only two were direct US NGOs) since, frankly, I thought it would blow-over. Too much money involved, you see. Plus, I have never been comfortable with either NDI or their Republican counterpart, IRI.  Although they  both provide open-door training for any existing or nascent  political organization, many governments resent what they consider interference with internal politics.  This is particularly true for governments that are not particularly interested in teaching people how to organize – like Russia and Ukraine.  Also, I happen to know that in some countries both NDI and IRI tend to provide more support to the more liberal organizations over the ones in power.  This is a result of the nature of the situation and not necessarily a deliberate policy, but it is rarely viewed like that by the ones in power. Nevertheless, they were not the only ones to be closed down and had their staffs arrested by the Egyptian police.  Anyone seen as voicing an opinion against SCAF or receiving grants from foreign countries was targeted.

It is time to end the charade.  First, we know that the Minister of International Cooperation, Fayza Aboul Naga, has been and remains aggressively opposed to foreign aid – particularly American foreign aid.  She is against any type of NGO that does not support her opinions and party line.  The positions taken by these sorts have always been to characterize groups seen as challenging the government as promoting the overthrow of the state. To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, a country doesn’t need to stay where it is not wanted.  If a beneficiary decides that the relationship is not important enough to maintain, it is not in the interests of the US (or anyone else, for that matter) to insist otherwise. 

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces which controls Egypt has no intention of fulfilling the hopes of those in Tahrir Square.  They are genetically wired to prevent the type of freedom and democracy that thousands rallied for last year.  As I have said in previous posts, the Egyptian chapter of the Arab Spring did not produce regime change. It removed one man from power and only when the military felt it was necessary.

In payment for the peace treaty with Israel, the US gives Egypt $1.3 billion in military assistance alone.  Take it away and use it elsewhere.  The choices are pretty extensive – including Tunisia, Morocco and a good deal of sub-Sahara.  More than 70% of the Egyptian people don’t want any American aid largely because of the strings attached, like keeping Camp David peace treaty intact. But they are not going to war with Israel again – largely because 1) the military can’t afford it and 2) the military knows it would lose.  The US should not even try to change the direction of a cratered relationship which is getting worse by the day.  The US needs to get its people out and speak against the policies of the government against their indigenous NGOs; but it need not spend billions in assistance to buy friendship, especially when that friendship is not reciprocated.

Egypt no longer holds a leadership position for Arabs and Muslims in the region. That has fallen to Qatar and Turkey – both of which have strong economies, don’t need foreign aid and have shown the type of leadership that can only be dreamt of in Cairo.

Merkel to Campaign for Sarkozy?

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Does anybody else think that this is going to end badly?  I am sure that the French will be celebrating in the streets that the Germans are giving them voting advice. 

The odds are that Sarkozy is going to lose despite the additional 500,000 Armenian diaspora votes he's secured by limiting freedom of speech (not to mention, thought).  Has Germany considered the consequential reaction of the winners?

Grabbing Gibraltar - whether the residents like it or not....

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This is sort of funny.  Why do nations want territory (which they handed over by treaty 300 years ago) where none of the people living there want them?

Oh, and incidentally, Spain should not stop there.  

If the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) is such an unfair agreement, then Belgium would need to be returned to Spain as well. Spain should also be reminded that it has its own colony in Morocco.

EU - The Great Unravelling

Not that it has escaped notice, but the EU and the Eurozone are unraveling at an alarming pace.  With the multiple “last opportunity” summits, electoral pronouncements by soon-to-be-unemployed Nicholas Sarkozy, and utter intransigence in Berlin, the EU is headed into another recession while simultaneously showing effectively to the world how incapable it is of taking any new direction in economic policy.  Most of the frozen dialogue is designed to save Germany – which would crash and burn should it adopt any sort of fiscal austerity it so easily demands of others in order to maintain its export driven economy which accounts for about 40% of its GDP.

Adding to the economic insanity promoted by Berlin, is an ECB which is focused like a laser on inflation.  News flash to Frankfurt – inflation is not even a looming threat on the horizon.  Unemployment (now having risen to 10.3% - 20% among youth) is and represents the TGV (in the US otherwise known as the 5 o’clock express) heading straight at everyone. Frankfurt, under the ever watchful eye of Berlin, is following policies established by Herbert Hoover and is the opposite of the actions taken by every other central bank in the world.  It’s not too fine a point, I guess, to note that France, tied as it is to whatever the current economic policy whim is at the ECB and the Euro, lost its credit rating of AAA while the UK – not in the best economic condition and not in the Eurozone – did not.  And no, S&P is not part of some Anglo-American conspiracy to attack the Euro as some German and EC representatives have claimed.

And just in case the technocrats in Brussels or the great deciders in Berlin and Paris think the EU or the Eurozone is a popular place to be these days, 70% of Czechs oppose joining the Euro; 49% in Lithuania (43% are pro-euro); and in Poland only 16%  support joining the Euro. Oh, and to cap the pyramid of euro-skeptics, almost 80% of Norwegians don’t want to join the EU.  Paris can stop worrying about 8% annual growth rate Turkey.

Now last week, with the unfortunate idea to abolish nations who don’t comply with their austerity requirements, Germany and the ECB may have alarmed Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to the point of permanent alienation.  The fact that this idea arose in Germany was not ideal PR for some rather obvious 20^th century reasons.

Germany is not going to let the ECB do what it must and abandon its expansionary-austerity program – one of the more stupid ideas of the hard line technocrats in Brussels. But it has now been hoisted on its own petard.  Historically, Berlin actually did not want other nations to indulge in fiscal prudence because they have an interest in promoting consumption and demand for their exports. The currency union allowed other countries to get credit at much lower rates so they would have more to spend. Germany encouraged this spending to absorb exports and cannot now have it both ways. 

The fanciful idea that somehow Greece deceived everyone is absurd.  If any deception existed, Germany deliberately ignored reality for its own benefit.  Whether the Eurozone begins to break up is an open question.  Certainly, Greece would be better off outside the Eurozone.  Germany cannot overplay its hand and the pre-Cambrian thinking of the Brussels-Frankfurt-Berlin axis needs to be radically changed or it will be changed for them.

Senegal Contracts the African Disease

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The president of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, was elected in 1999 in what was a free and fair vote.  He was reelected in 2007 shortly after which Parliament amended the constitution to limit terms to two.  He has now convinced the highest court to allow him to stand for a third term while simultaneously preventing the head of the opposition from being a candidate.  This is variation on a theme in Africa.  Those in power hate to give it up and will do anything to remain in their positions.  He happens also to be grooming his son to succeed him.

Senegal has now erupted in violence.  Another stable democracy (which happens to be Muslim) has become problematic in Africa.  Pity.

Germany Pushes the Edge - and Loses

Yesterday's revelations that Germany had demanded that Greece surrender its sovereignty to a EU imperial governor again shows that Germany considers itself the ruler of the Eurozone, if not all the EU.  The arrogance - aside from the sheer stupidity which is another matter - should be a wake up call to Italy, Spain and Ireland that as long as they remain "not German" the EU will not fully accept their roles or input.  The Greek reaction was understandably harsh to this suspension of democracy to save the Euro.

The fact of the matter is that Greece is bankrupt.  It does not have a liquidity problem. It is bankrupt and should leave the Eurozone. This would create a good deal a disruption, but for Greece it is a necessary step if it (and countries like it) are not continually subjected to German visions of economic genius which is geared solely to protecting the German export driven economy.  Greece needs to have its own currency again.

Additionally, the German position which seems to rest solely on austerity and no growth, is in danger of sinking the entire EU.  The Hooverism of Merkel and her party is going to destroy the economies of Europe - except for Germany.

Germany - and France at times - have aggressively pushed the concept of austerity-for-all.  At the same time, the ECB has been obsessed with inflation.  The combination is a recipe for a disaster and will not solve the debt crises.

I'm glad I'm not paid in Euro.