Libya in Flux

Libya is in total chaos with both sides behaving without coherence.  Qaddafi's speeches are even more rambling and devoid of reality than a week ago - if that's possible.  Just this afternoon three jets of his personal Falcon 900 jets took off in 3 different directions - apparently to Vienna, Cairo and Athens.  No one knows the purpose.  Now claiming that underage youth from Afganistan, Egypt and Palestine are behind the "minor" revolts and then blaming the UK, France and the US for the unrest, he is clearly nuts.

Then, there is the question of a no-fly zone.  Both Senators Lieberman (remember him?)and McCain are promoting the idea in an effort to seem relevant. Except for those who learned nothing from the US adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, this is a high risk proposal. Aside from the political consequences of Western powers taking sides or even moving militarily in Libya, there is the very likely chance that a stray missile or bullet will kill civilians.  One hit on the oil refinery at Ras Januf could cause an explosion that would wipe out everything for 15 kilometers. When that happens, the anger will be turned on the saviours. It is not as easy as it seems.

No one knows how the revolts in Libya will turn out.  Qaddafi's forces are striking back hard. This could go on for some time yet and rushing to do something could be worse - far worse - than doing nothing.

Trouble in Saudi Arabia

Protests in the Shia populated area of eastern Saudi Arabia - where most of the oil is - aimed at reforming the governing system to a constitutional monarchy may spread this Friday despite the handouts of money and jobs to the tune of $37 billion plus 15% increase in wages by the House of Saud and King Abdullah. Shia's make up about 10 - 15% of the population.

The government has and probably will increase the use of force.  After all, they recently told Bahrain that if the Shia revolt is not crushed by the current government, the Saudi's would do it for them.  What will happen on March 11 is anyone's guess.  However,  the House of Saudi's reactions to demands for reform in the past have been poor. Which is why the situation is now becoming serious and big financial gesures will not work.  They are not listening - it is not a matter of money. The whole system needs to change - availablility of jobs, quality healthcare, economic marginalization, and political reform.

Speaking of Stupid

Image via Wikipedia

Ok. I finally, eventually, get around to reading something about the US. Unfortunately, the first thing that hit me from the “internets” was this piece of undiluted ignorance posturing as intellectualism from someone, in my far off youth, I considered smart.

So why is America’s “win the future” administration so fixated on railroads, a technology that was the future two centuries ago? Because progressivism’s aim is the modification of (other people’s) behavior.

Forever seeking Archimedean levers for prying the world in directions they prefer, progressives say they embrace high-speed rail for many reasons—to improve the climate, increase competitiveness, enhance national security, reduce congestion, and rationalize land use. The length of the list of reasons, and the flimsiness of each, points to this conclusion: the real reason for progressives’ passion for trains is their goal of diminishing Americans’ individualism in order to make them more amenable to collectivism.

To progressives, the best thing about railroads is that people riding them are not in automobiles, which are subversive of the deference on which progressivism depends. Automobiles go hither and yon, wherever and whenever the driver desires, without timetables. Automobiles encourage people to think they—unsupervised, untutored, and unscripted—are masters of their fates. The automobile encourages people in delusions of adequacy, which make them resistant to government by experts who know what choices people should make.

When did George Will become so stupid? Trains are much more efficient than planes or cars over certain distances and destinations. Go to Japan, or China, or Europe. Or maybe he hates the idea because VERY IMPORTANT PEOPLE like him really don’t want to sit with the rest of us. And to try and stretch his dislike of those he considers beneath him, he assigns the desire to make transport better and more efficient for the user to some sort of plot by Progressives to control other peoples’ lives.

George, go back to writing about baseball.

Thought for the Day

The European Central Bank’s not-so-subtle hint that it will increase interest rates to combat inflation due almost solely to the price rise in oil and commodities is plain stupid on any number of levels.

China Missteps

Image via Wikipedia

China’s foreign policy has been increasingly annoying to its neighbors over the past year or so and this year seems no different. In a report by AP, Chinese vessels made threatening maneuvers indicating an intention to ram a Philippine oil research ship near the Spratly Islands. Aside from the fact that ramming – as it has done against Japanese ships, seems to be an approved form of attack by China this area is Philippine territory, although also partially or wholly claimed by Vietnam, Brunei and China. It is also a vital shipping lane which the US considers in its national interests to maintain open – something China dislikes intensely since it claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.


The continuation of this sort of aggressive, bullying behavior is not a good sign and juxtaposed with the recent announcement by Beijing to increase its military budget by more than 12% tends to alarm its neighbors. Although tiny in comparison to the US military budget, the Chinese government attitude that, in the region, what’s theirs is theirs and what is anyone else’s is negotiable is not only counterproductive and against the ultimate interests of China, but could lead to an unfortunate and unnecessary confrontation.

It is difficult at the best of times to discern Chinese foreign policy intentions. The continuation of this type of bullying behavior would lead its neighbors – not to mention the US – to take the worst case view and do what is necessary to counter the actions. Of course, the behavior benefits the US as Japan and the South East Asian countries will want a strong US naval presence to remain, if not beefed up.

Embarrassed in Libya

Image via Wikipedia

Reports on al Jazeera say that 8 S.A.S. were captured by rebel forces near Bengazi. Amid a ‘no-comment’ by the UK foreign ministry was an admission that there was a diplomatic group in the area trying to make contact with the rebels.


OK. Well. Aside from the perception that this constitutes foreign interference – after all the S.A.S. are elite special forces – this would be a terrible embarrassment for the S.A.S. On the one hand, it is good that the UK is trying reach out; on the other, sending in S.A.S. without some sort of advance ground work might not have been the best idea. It’ll all probably work out for the best as it unfolds.

In other news out of Libya, the rebel troops have taken Ras Lanuf and its oil refinery. That refinery accounts for 60% of oil exports. That’s a blow to the Qaddafi. Sirte – Qaddafi’s birthplace – is the next target. If Qaddafi loses Sirte, that may be the tipping point on the military front and, if the rebels form a government, the West will need to make a hard decision – recognize or not. Not that anyone listens to me, but I would recommend a race to the microphone to announce recognition of the new government.

A word about the flag - it's the first flag of independence in 1951 and is the one you see the rebels waving on TV.

On Prediction

Just to follow up on my apparently less than clear point regarding models and predictions I made last week, I want to point out that this should not prevent trying to plan for future events. It just means that past events should not be analyzed for cause and effect so as to be predictive. It’s nice to pretend through hindsight and applying effects to certain causes that we actually knew that what would happen did but were nevertheless caught flat footed. Doesn’t say much for expert analysis, does it? But, in the case of the Arab uprisings, it is critical to have some plan that takes into account not only scenarios that we can think of, but of the effects of the improbable.


In other words, if we stick to the old way of analysis, then I guarantee that the results will be completely different and the experts will be asked by the pundits – but why did this happen and shouldn’t we have known? The answer to that question from the again proven wrong and highly paid experts will be that it was unanticipated because they had never encountered it before. When, of course, they had.