Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Russian War on Georgia

According to the AP Russia armour is now only 25 miles from Tbilisi. Last week 22 ships of the Black Sea Fleet steamed out of Sevastopol with a vanguard of troop landing ships. The stationing of troops outside of their zone as agreed upon with the EU is a dangerous situation and Russia clearly intends to eliminate the indepence of Georgia through military threats, if not an outright invasion.

The EU will protest and do nothing - just as it always has done. The US does not have the flexibility to intervene in any military way, nor should it. However, Russia desperately wants a new relationship with Washington and it should be made clear to Moscow that the "reset" button will indeed be reset if they invade.

Saakashvili must begin to negotiate a way out with the opposition which will likely mean his resignation. This might preclude a Russian invasion. He is ineffective as President of Georgia and provides Russia an excuse for invading. If he refuses to negotiate and expects help from either the EU or the US once Russian tanks start heading for Tbilisi, his sand castle will collapse and not only will Georgia cease to exist except as a province of Moscow, Russia will have full control of the oil pipeline in Georgia so as to maintain and increase its energy stranglehold on Europe.

Once Georgia is removed as an irritant, Russia will turn its attention to Ukraine which has elections coming in October. They have already illegally provided Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and have used that as a pretext before for military action.

It's reality check time. Russia is not an ally but an enemy of democracy and is reverting to its imperial ways.

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