Thursday, September 17, 2009

Iran, Israel, Russia, US

I am still curious as to what was discussed - if that's the right word - during the less than secret meeting in Moscow between Medvedev and Netenyahu. Iranian negotiating tactics (delay, hesitate and produce long but meaningless reports) are normally very successful. Indeed, the latest round of proposed talks regarding its nuclear program has been delayed beyond the meeting of the UN General Assembly. They were supposed to start prior to the session.

Now that Iran says they will talk about anything except their nuclear program, it seems to me that the meeting will need to take place just for the sake of appearances. What happens next?

Russia probably believes Washington will do nothing. Washington will work with Europe to impose sanctions (gasoline is the most likely target). Russia and China will not go along. Israel, under Netenyahu is not even proximately involved in negotiations regarding sanctions. This diplomatic gamesmanship among the parties could blow up in all our faces if Netenyahu decides that Israel needs to attack Iran. If that happens, oil prices will shoot up to Pluto - and that would be the least of the ramifications.

This could turn out to be a mess mostly because all the parties may be misreading the motives and possible actions of each other.

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