The International Fickle Finger of Fate Award

To celebrate the end of 9 days of rain, I want to end the week with the people that deserve the old “Fickle Finger of Fate” award (Rowan and Martin’s “Laugh-In” for those old enough to remember).  The list is limited to the top seven, one for every day of the week.

George Papandreou, PM Greece:  For no obvious reason, creates world-wide consternation when, following months of negotiations in the EU (otherwise known as Germany) to deal with debt crises in general and with problem Greece in particular, by first agreeing to terms of a financial rescue package (which would not have solved the problem and makes the lives of ordinary Greeks worse than they are already, but whatever…) and then turning 180ᵒ to everyone’s surprise, including his own Finance Minister, announcing that he would hold a public referendum to let the Greek people decide.  His job is now on the line. Aside from dumbfounded surprise, Sarkozy and Merkel were enraged. Key Greek cabinet members ask him to resign and the Greek government is about to form a coalition government.  Good job for the week and for letting the cat out of the bag – national sovereignty trumps everything and threatens the EU (otherwise known as Germany).

Bashar al-Assad, Fearless Leader and (hopefully temporary) President, Syria:  After allowing his brother to unleash the army and security forces for months so they could arrest, torture and/or kill demonstrators while being condemned by most of the planet (except Iran, which needs him), Fearless Leader and former optometrist from northern London Assad resisted Arab League demands to stop the violence. This week he changed his mind and said he agreed to the plan, which called for calling off his tanks and security forces, allow foreign and domestic journalists free access, release political prisoners and enter into negotiations with the opposition. Except he really didn’t and within a day his tanks had killed additional dozens of people.  Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, the prime minister of Qatar who developed the deal, is not happy.  Assad should remember that Qatar was in the lead calling for a no-fly zone in Libya, sent fighter aircraft to take part in the campaign and put hundreds of boots on the ground to help pull down Gadhafi. He also should keep in mind those Syrian military units that have promised a civil war if he does not keep to the deal.

Ilena Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee:  During the week, this Republican member of Congress (there’s a pattern to this) marked up a bill and pushed through an amendment that criminalizes diplomacy with Iran. This is unconstitutional, but that little legalistic problem doesn't concern most Republicans when it comes to securing power.  She represents the jingoistic and power hungry elected official (aka Republican) who will “do whatever  possible to hurt Obama regardless of the interests of the country”. If they are continued to be elected, it will make the US a threat to world peace.  Oh – and remember those hikers that were imprisoned in Iran as spies? They’d still be there if Ilena of the galactically stupid had her way.

Condi Rice, former worst US Secretary of State Ever:  To be fair, she was an expert on the Soviet Union and was thrown into a world without the Soviet Union. Bit of bad luck, that – but perhaps she should have adjusted.  Unfortunately she then went on to work on issues in which she had no grounding. That’s ok too – unless one ignores the learning curve. Like supporting the Iraq war which she recently defended as "worth it" (courtesy of ABC news where she promoted her recent book).  Why was the war worth it? Because -  “We also now know that it (the Middle East) was the cradle of al Qaeda and extremism”.  Apparently, "we" didn't know it then and assumed al Qaeda and religious extremism were from a different universe - the same one where US white supremacists and Timothy McVeigh were born.

The fact that there was no connection between al Qaeda and Iraq seems to have escaped her. The fact that Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda were enemies also appears to be beyond her capability to admit.  The fact that the core of al-Qaeda was Afghanistan (despite Osama’s birth in Saudi Arabia) where the US was (at the time) more or less successfully engaged until she and her boss took the eye off the target to indulge in a personal war , also seems to have vanished from her mind.

Her logic dictates that because the head of al Qaeda was born and raised to a wealthy family in Saudi Arabia, the US was justified in invading Iraq – which had nothing to do with 9/11 or al Qaeda.  She does assert that Iraq was a security threat. How? No one (other than the moth brained neo-cons and their followers) is sure.  She regretted the lives lost but that “nothing of any value is ever gained without sacrifice”.  What was the value gained?  Iran was gifted the region, so I guess that’s one to them but to no one else.  Value for sacrifice? Explain that to over 100,000 Iraqi civilian dead and almost 4,500 US soldiers killed (not to mention those maimed for life) when it was clear that al Qaeda in Iraq was as much of a  fabrication as were the claims of weapons of mass destruction.

Herman Cain, Pizza King and Wannabe POTUS:  Well – what can I say?  His foreign policy thoughts include killer electric fences on the Mexico border and maybe a moat with alligators. Pandering to the Israeli lobby and the Christian right, he now refers to the “so-called” Palestinian people. Beijing will be shocked to learn that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and is therefore a military threat. The Pizza King thinks he qualified to hold public office. Sarah set the bar really, really low. Bachmann and her followers dropped it through the floor. Who would have thought anyone could lower it further? Oh – and there are those sex harassment issues…

David Williams, Kentucky Gubernatorial Wannabe:  This loser (he’s behind by 30 points) decided to attack the Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, for participating in a Hindu prayer at a groundbreaking ceremony in Elizabethtown, Kentucky, for a new factory run by FlexFilm, a company based in India that makes materials for packaging, printing, insulation and other purposes. The plant represents a $180 million investment, and is expected to create 250 jobs in Kentucky. He said it was a ceremony of idolatry and prayers to false gods.  “He’s there participating with Hindu priests, participating in a religious ceremony…they can say what they want to. He’s sitting down there with his legs crossed, participating in Hindu prayers with a dot on his forehead with incense burning around him. I don’t know what the man was thinking.”

To be fair, Williams is a Republican (the pattern continues) and therefore, like his followers, entitled to some slack.  There’s no pill for stupidity and bigotry. Thankfully, he’s also not in charge, and won’t be. Otherwise insulting the religion of the second most populous democracy on the planet and a growing  power balance to a rising China (a helpful aspect for US foreign policy) might be taken the wrong way. 

And to finish this off –

Michael Bloomberg, Mayor (Independent, Rich Person), New York City:  “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.”  Got that? This is not a joke. The Very Important People were forced to give bad loans (which they then sold forward and made money).  Sounds like German and French complaints about Greece:  The Greeks cheated to get in the Eurozone. They cooked the books. Shocking. Terrible. And we, the best and brightest in Brussels, surrounded by thousands of deep thinking analysts and auditors were completely fooled. Wow.  Just like all those banks in the US who were forced to loan money to people who they knew couldn’t pay it back.  Yeah. That's it.

Syria Unravels

About three weeks ago I asked a friend in Damascus whether anything serious was beginning in Syria.  Only minor demonstrations in the south were then taking place, but given the upheavals elsewhere, I thought it would be interesting to get a local perspective.  The answer was short – and I expect deliberately so – “not much happening…all is quiet, really”.   No longer and he is heading to Canada on other business hoping that everything will settle down when he returns in a month.  The problem is that Syrian demonstrations are likely to get worse this weekend and particularly on May 1^st and May 6^th, both of which are national holidays, with the latter being the “day of martyrs”. 

From what I can gather, this did not start as a political movement aimed at removing Bashar al-Asad.  Rather, it was almost purely the result of economic issues and calls for lifting the emergency laws in force for about 40 years.  Now, however, so many people have been killed by the regime that every relative of every person killed is out for blood.  Tribal traditions are rising to the top and although Asad himself was never the original target, that is rapidly changing.  People are angry.

Given the severity of the crackdown by the government it is unlikely, but not impossible,  for the government to fall.  Should that happen, the politics of the region would be shaken, not stirred.  Syria is an important player whose instability or change in government would have a profound affect.  Syria is a key transit point for Iranian support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.  Loss of the transit would seriously and adversely impact Iranian plans for the Levant.  Israel also needs to be concerned since, although a front-line state and hardly in a talking mood with Israel, it was at least stable. The Turkish policy of a peaceful neighborhood, not to mention an vibrant economic zone with Turkey reestablishing its presence in the Levant at the expense of Iran would rapidly disintegrate.  Iran may feel it necessary to become more overt in its take-over of Iraq, leading to trouble in the Kurdish north.  In other words, an unstable Syria would create a mess.

Syria has also pushed Bahrain to below-the-fold status as the GCC continues to crush the rebellion there.  Many have characterized this as a sectarian revolt of Shiite against Sunni.  That’s convenient, but not entirely accurate, until now.  It may have morphed into sectarianism, but the Shiite majority suffers from severe economic and political discrimination.  A less discriminatory environment and more economic opportunities for Shiites might have avoided the entire revolt.  However, the loud sectarian voices emanating from Iran have solidified the Shiite-Sunni divide.  Active interference – hinted at the other day by the commander of the Revolutionary Guard in Iran – would result in a war with Saudi Arabia and, since the US 5^th Fleet is based in Bahrain, with US forces taking part.  It is no secret that Iran really, really wants the US Fleet out of the Arabian Gulf.  One can only hope that the civilian government in Tehran can keep the Republican Guard on a short leash because the consequences of an Iranian attack in Bahrain would have huge economic, political and military repercussions.  It would also be a gift to the neo-cons and Netanyahu as the US would be forced into action against Iran’s formidable conventional army.

Syria is important to watch as the government moves in with tanks to snuff out the revolt.  But political change is coming in Damascus whether Asad prevails or not and the Iranians are understandably concerned that their policies in the region could rapidly unravel – and not to their benefit.