Mursi - Mistakes and the Road to Istability

The Egyptian constitution passed its first hurdle of two with 56%.  This is not good.  The constitution was written by a Muslim Brotherhood drafting committee devoid of women and from which most liberals, moderates and secularists resigned.  Salafists, a dangerously extreme group of Islamists, have attacked opposition offices.  Dr. Mursi’s rush to judgment to hold a referendum with virtually no time for intelligent study of the document by Egyptian voters and the manner of its alarmingly sudden creation by the drafting committee with no legal scholars should worry him. 

This is a critical document.  The constitution will form the foundation of every other future piece of legislation. A very large section of Egyptian society is against it and against the anti-liberal sentiments of the Muslim Brotherhood and certainly those of the extremist Salafists to whom they are allied.  Rather than provide the stability that Egypt desperately needs, the process that Mursi – and it seems the Muslim Brotherhood to whom he is clearly kneeling and which has never kept its word on any matter – is pursuing could very well have the unintended consequence of mimicking Nouri al-Maliki’s problems in Iraq, together with the attendant violence.

Where religious extremists seek to impose their will on all others there is an ultimate backlash.

What is Mursi Up To?

What is Muhammad Mursi's plan?  It is difficult not to take him at his word - that the powers he seized under a set of decrees last Thursday which greatly enhanced his power and prevented the judiciary from challenging any action he might take - would be dropped when a constituion is finalized (now extended from the end of December to the end of February).  However, the make-up of the Constituant Assembly is heavily weighted toward the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Keep in mind that many secularist and Christian representatives have resigned from the Assembly which is drafting the new constitution. Despite Mursi's attitude of inclusiveness, which even if true is not what his party believes, the risk that a liberal, pluralist and inclusive society will not arise seems to be more likely than before. Consequently, the constitution may eventually be so non-inclusive and religiously oriented that almost 50% of the country will be subject to a loss of rights that it expects. 

In the meantime, the key decree, at least for me, is the one that says the president may take any steps he feels necessary to preserve the revolution, or national unity, or the country’s security. Coupled with the other decrees preventing the judiciary from questioning or dissolving the Islamist dominated Constituent Assembly or upper house of Parliament, these decrees are a recipe for a potential disaster between now and the end of February.

Mursi's margin of victory was slim, to say the least.  If half the country believes that the revolution is under threat and that the constitution is one-sided, under the circumstances of the Egyptian environment, the much wished for stability could rapidly circle the drain.

Egypt...Egypt...Egypt...the weather

I refuse to post any more on Egypt until something happens. It is already pretty damn dull watching the same cameras focus on the same square with the same people, give or take a few thousand, while listening to the reporters say the same thing until they are forced to make predictions laced with caveats rather than saying, simply, “I don’t have the faintest idea what is going to happen next because the variables are legion”.


Furthermore, the constant moaning about the Brothers taking instant control over a state and turning it into an Iranian fundamentalist outpost with the support of the Egyptian people in general, is just so much, well, crap. If they were to take control they would been in the less than enviable position of dealing with the same economic, social and political problems that the Mubarak government ignored or repressed. Somehow, I don’t think they are not aware of this unpleasant fact – that if they get control and have no plan and do not succeed in making lives better in a very short time – which is impossible -the probability of facing a similar revolution is hardly out of the question. This, by the way, has not been lost on the clerics in Tehran.

Finally, the US neo-cons are beating the caliphate drum. They won’t stop because 1) it suits their political agenda and 2) that agenda depends on the stupidity of the general population in the US. Let’s try and keep something in mind – there is no monolithic Muslim movement. There are geo-political agendas which trump religion. Syria wants Lebanon for itself, not for an Iranian allied Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia would love to see Iran disintegrate – or at least their brand of clerical rule vanish. Turkey plays the peacemaker and “no problem foreign policy” (badly, so far) while not particularly interested in seeing Iran take over Iraq. The Palestinians don’t give a damn about what is happening in Egypt because they are not in any position to do anything similar – yet. Egypt is not a pawn of anyone. The Brothers are Egyptian first.

So, until there is a change in Cairo, I think I talk about the weather.

Controlling the Message - US and Egypt

I hate concentrating on one subject, but Egypt is really, really important. Over at Information Dissemination, they noted that the Enterprise battle group has reportedly sailed from Portugal into the Med. It does not take too much imagination where the group is heading. But ID asks some very key questions about communications and developing perceptions about the possible role the US may play in the overthrow of Mubarak.

As ID has pointed out, Suez is a key strategic asset whose closure would adversely affect international trade and economies. Reports (unconfirmed via Stratfor) that the Gaza border is open to Egypt provides a legitimate cause for concern should Hamas decide to escalate the war (and that is what it is) with Israel by disrupting Suez traffic. So sending the Enterprise – with its US Marine contingent – to Suez is a necessary tactical move. However, I completely agree with ID that instead of or in addition to any CNN reporter on the flight deck put a reporter from Al Jazeera. Control the message, because if the Egyptian air force – using US fighters - decides Mubarak is worth a fight, then things will get very ugly, very fast. Al Jazeera will report the movement of the battle group anyway and the reaction of the Egyptian people will be that it is sailing to support Mubarak. Very. Big. Mistake.


The political situation post Mubarak is difficult to gauge. The neo-cons are worried about the Muslim Brotherhood becoming the dominant political force in Egypt and turning it into an Islamic state. They forget three important points – MB does not espouse the same ideology as the regime in Iran and has no leading clerics or leaders; it is not the only opposition political party; and, it will remain a powerful political force no matter what. They are a player who must be considered in any future government. It would make sense for the MB to form a coalition with several parties, secular and non-secular, in order to bring some stability but they are unlikely to be reading my advice.

From a foreign policy perspective, the probability that Egypt would lurch into the Iran mode is very remote – but not impossible. Particularly if the US and the West is viewed as having propped him up. Politicians and pundits routinely dismiss the improbable based on past experience (such as the un-forcasted revolution in Tunisia and the current upheaval in Egypt) – much to their subsequent embarrassment (which unfortunately is soon forgotten). However, it is not clear that the MB has the political strength to pull off what would amount to a coup as this would require army and air force support, which they won't get.

Mubarak has been an ally of the West in the region and he has continued the foreign policies of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, for 30 years, which has been a good thing. Those policies are likely to change in the near future – and the US and Western Europe need to control their messages to Egypt right now so that the extent of the foreign policy changes is minimal. Sending a carrier battle group to Suez may be militarily prudent – but sending it with the wrong message could make matters worse.