Saleh - a way out for Yemen

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The Gulf Arab states, who took the lead in pushing for the overthrow of Qaddafi, have pushed through a UN Security Council resolution calling for an end to violence in Yemen and immediate transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh to his deputy.  The resolution was unanimous - not an insignificant point.    This is a good development.
What this will do is set the stage for immunity from prosecution for Saleh.  This, too is not insignificant. Regardless of the sometimes naive views of human rights' activists, offering a way out for the ultimate loser would likely prevent further bloodshed.  Would it had worked for Qaddafi - doubtful since one must expect a degree of rational thought on the part of the target. Qaddafi lived in his own world and his views were, if not insane, certainly completely warped.  Immunity probably would not have made a difference and, in any event given his proclivity toward strange and dangerous behavior, would likely have resulted in a prolonged and debilitating insurgency led from Niger or Algeria.
Saleh is not quite Qaddafi (but comes close) and although even the Saudis gave up on him in frustration, they have been instrumental in finding a way to end the slaughter  in Yemen.  Ending the killing is more important than the future of Saleh - which is limited in any case.
Boxing a dictator into a corner is not a wise way to go and the rose coloured glasses through which some human rights activists view "just" solutions and doing what is "right" can, and has, led to the loss of many more innocent civilian lives than necessary.  It develops a growing sense of revenge on the part of those at the wrong end of the broken bottle.  The likely execution of Qaddafi at the hands of the rebels should not have come as a surprise and, frankly, draws a line under the bloody civil war in a way the ICC could never have accomplished. That, and the fact that Libyans don't give a rats ass how he was killed, should inform the UN to keep its nose out of the inquest and simply help Libya recover.  Just think - Benito Mussolini and his wife were captured, killed and hanged upside down by furious Italians.  The UN would have ordered an investigation.  What a joke that would have been. The same is true of the execution of Ceausescu and his wife.
Revolutions and war are not clean, pleasant or sanitary. The media should stop being shocked at civilian deaths and revenge killings.  It is sad and unfortunate and inevitable.
The ICC is useful to some extent - but it is not useful for ending civil wars by forcing dictators to dig in more.  Some activists for "justice" may find that unpalatable - but next time they corner a dictator, let them ask widows or the parents of slaughtered children what their choice would be. 

Saleh the Indespensable

Dictator in Chief Saleh after 32 years in power in Yemen certainly knows how to shoot himself in the foot.  There can be no doubt that his second about-face, refusing to sign the deal brokered by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, United States and the EU in which he would step down, did not improve anyone’s mood in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Washington, London or Brussels – not to mention the opposition on the streets.  But, then, arranging for his armed supporters to surround the foreign delegation resulting in the UAE ambassador to fly home in a rage was monumentally stupid.

What is it about these petty little rulers who believe that their position is an entitlement?  This is like Africa – Uganda, Zimbabwe and Cote d”Ivoire come immediately to mind.  In the case of Yemen, Saleh is now saying that if he steps down then al Qaeda will fill his shoes.  Does he think his powerful friends are blind?  Yemen has several tribal conflicts going on some of which al Qaeda finds advantageous to promote.  However, estimates are that there are about 300 al Qaeda operatives in the country out of a population of 23 million.  That’s hardly a takeover threshold and the number of supporters he ordered out into the streets yesterday could easily handle the miserable gang of terrorists hiding out in the mountains.

Just as the GCC under Saudi command entered Bahrain to crush the (quite legitimate) rebellion in that kingdom, perhaps they can balance the scales and just remove Saleh now that he has shown that he is incapable of rational behavior and is a destabilizing influence in the region.

Qatar Walks Away from Yemen

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Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US have been trying to find a way for President Saleh to gracefully step down in Yemen.  Apparently no longer as Qatar abandoned the effort while pointing the finger at Saleh.

There are two possible scenarios now - Saleh becomes more isolated and is forced to leave or Saleh becomes more isolated and reacts with more violance.

In the end, the military units (now divided) will decide this.

Yemen on the Brink

Yemen’s political crisis is rapidly escalating. President Ali Abdullah Saleh continues to resist stepping down at a defiant press conference today. But the tone has changed and he is probably severely weakened by defections


The question of what happens in Yemen now that Brig. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Saleh’s half-brother, has defected to the opposition lies in the hands of the Saudi’s. Mohsen is commander the northwestern military zone, has significant influence in Yemen’s old guard and has deployed an armored formation to protect the protester. His armor is surrounding the presidential palace, where Republican Guard units under the command of Saleh’s son, Ahmed, have taken up defensive positions. This could get very messy, quickly and much depends on whether the Saudi’s support Saleh (who has requested their help) is firm or if they decide to throw him under the bus. I’m betting that the Saudi’s will find a way for Saleh to depart the political stage.

The Saudi’s will have enormous leverage to form a new government. From a political standpoint, general Mohsen might not be the Saudi’s first choice, despite his conservative credentials. He was instrumental in defeating the far more secular south during the civil war, something that pleased the Saudi’s, but as a conservative Islamist might not follow Riyadh’s lead. However, he and his tribe have strong ties to some members of the Saudi royal family. So does Saleh.

This is not Bahrain – with an easy land bridge to cross – so sending troops to Saana, if that is the decision in Riyadh, is likely not an option. Furthermore, the army is split, has tribal loyalties and should not be compared to the Egyptian military. The Saudi’s need to tread carefully since a bad outcome would destabilize the southern border – and stability is what Riyadh is all about.

End Game in Yemen

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Yemen is about to change.

The commanders of the north-western and eastern military zones as well as the air force commanders have moved to the side of the protesters and pledge to protect them. Tanks and other armoured  vehicles have moved in to Sanaa for that purpose. Sound familiar?  Yemen's ambassadors to Jordan, Syria and Kuwait have resigned and the governor of Aden quit in support.  The protests in Sanaa are now in full bloom. President Ali Abdullah Saleh is on his way out.