In this corner - al Shaabab

The Kenyan incursion across its border into the  region known as Somalia (the national government in Mogadishu has no control over the majority of the territory – sort of a prerequisite to country status), has bogged down because of heavy rains.  Nairobi clearly intends to continue the operation up to and including seizure of the coastal city of Kismaayo – the financial and logistics hub of the al-Shaabab terrorist group.  The loss of Kismaayo will be a blow to the financial and logistical prospects of al-Shaabab which reaps the benefits of piracy, and now kidnapping of tourists, using the funds to purchase arms and materials for its activities. 

The issue is what happens when the Kenyan’s leave?  Some deal will need to be made with the tribal groups allied, more or less, with the government in Mogadishu.  Foreign troops cannot stay – that much should be obvious.  However, it is very clear that the problem of piracy and the predations of al-Shaabab, including the famine it’s control of areas is exacerbating, are not going to be solved off-shore. 

Al-Shaabab must be made to suffer heavy losses and that can only be done ultimately with boots on the ground.  Cutting them off from their source of income and headquarters in Kismaayo is a good first step, but must be quickly followed by a Mogadishu presence through one of its allies since it is incapable by itself to do so. 

The fact that the Mogadishu government has voiced official protests at the breach of its “sovereignty” is legal window dressing.  There are 8,000 foreign troops in Mogadishu (the reason al-Shaabab departed so quickly).  The US is sending in drones from neighboring Ethiopia. Failed states have no sovereign rights. The famine in the region is made worse by al-Shaabab. The attacks on civilians, kidnappings in Kenya and the mutual aid society between al-Shaabab and pirates, is a perfect scenario of R2P actions.  Support to the Kenyan government’s efforts need to be ramped up now.

Kenya Says "Enough"

Kenya has sent its troops and airforce into the area commonly known as Somalia in order to secure its borders from further incursions by the terrorist group al-Shabaab.  Amusingly, the “Government of Somalia” which controls a few square kilometers of Mogadishu, has complained of a violation of its sovereignty.  This is a charade, of course, since militias in the southern Somalia and which support the government have coordinated with the Kenyans.  

Kenya clearly has had enough of the terrorist incursions and is hardly a stranger to Somalia as it has been training their army anyway.  Although it has briefly entered Somalia in the past, this time the attack is serious.  They now join the Ugandan and Burundian troops already supporting the government. The Somali protest keeps up appearances.  

Al-Shabab has vowed to repel the Kenyans.  The last time they tried to repel a foreign regular army they didn’t do too well as the Ethiopian military quickly ripped through them.

Now may be time time to rethink the Somali problem – both regarding the pirates (whose funds sometimes end up with al-Shabab) and the terrorist group itself.  Ground operations have clearly become necessary as the Russians suggested a year ago.  They should now go forward with a plan to stop the pirates before they leave the shore.

Somalia Pirates

Somalia – or the Puntland part at least – seems to be tiring of pirate glamour, according to the BBC. Two things struck me about the article. The first is that UNICEF actually appears to make a difference by building schools and providing alternative lifestyles to the fading romanticism of piracy. But they are leaving.

The second is the statement by the President of Puntland. He named a price for which his government, and not the one that controls a few square blocks of Mogadishu, could eliminate piracy. It’s a lot less than what the military deployments cost or the ransom payments. So now we know what it will cost to control the pirates – even if paying him is sort of a ransom payment of its own.

Failed State No. 1

The rescue of Captain Phillips of the Maersk Alabama was both wonderful and an amazing display of marksmanship. Now, however, very good questions are being raised here. They deserve to be addressed, since as is correctly pointed out, the level of violence is likely to escalate.

Beyond these questions, lie even more difficult ones that include policy decisions on how to handle, if at all, the failed state of Somalia. Clearly, foreign assistance to arrest the decline of Somalia is impossible. It is not safe for anyone to be based there for any period of time. But sooner or later, something will need to be done.

Piracy, although a headline grabber, is not the key problem. Although I am sure there are pirates who simply don't care and enjoy their life, how many have been driven to it by the collapse of Somalia as a state. This raises the larger question of true terrorists making Somalia a base of operations because of so many, particularly among the youth, who will be attracted by fundamentalist activities and promises.

So. What must be done?