Lesotho Landing - Ukraine and the Death of Democracy

Finally I've arrived in Maseru and getting my briefings. Photo's of beautifull countryside follow soon.

As for Ukraine, the Kremlin poodle has changed the rules in the Rada and implemented an unconstitutional change permitting individual members to change their vote rather than, as constitutionally required, remain with their bloc. Yanukovych, the criminal fraud of 2004 and new president, has his own PM. The election process worked allowing someone to come to power who will change enough rules to model himself on Russia, China, Iran and Venezualy. Europe - on their knees to the Kremlin - applauds, stability over democracy has won again. Putin has his empire back.

Hopefully, the opposition and the Constitutional Court will come to the rescue. But I doubt it.

Election Notes

Ukraine - Yulia Tymoschenko has withdrawn her law suit challenging the election of the incoming Victor; Yulia is not resigning as PM; Yulia is really, really angry and will boycott the inauguration. The next question is what will Victor do with an angry and powerful PM. I suspect that Tymoschenko withdrew the court action for two reasons: she'd lose (but the ensuing instability would be unacceptable to the new president) and (therefore) a deal has been cut. What was the deal? As an aside - Russia has not decided yet if they will send someone to attend the inauguration ceremony. Considering their man won, the reticence is odd.

Egypt - I readily admit to a lack of knowledge about Egyptian politics following the Ptolemy era and my recent experience with modern Egypt was decidedly unpleasant. However, the beginnings of a campaign to get Mohammed ElBaradei to run for president of Egypt are strange. Egypt is not noted for its democratic system but regardless of the seemingly insurmountable barrier of a Mubarak dynasty, what is behind the decision to run? Does he have a base of support? Does his experience as head of the IAEA give him some experience for running Egypt? I simply don't know and if anyone does, let me know.

CPAC - OK. I know - no US politics. Get over it. Congratulations to Ron Paul for his enormous and meaningless victory over Sarah and Mitt. Run with it Paul. According to the Very Serious Pundits in Washington (that's you Mr. Broder) this is good news for McCain.

and, last but not least...

Niger - Anyone remember yellow cake? No? There is a lot of it in Niger. In a Niger version of elections, the army took over the reins of power on Thursday from the 71 year old president Mamadou Tandja who is now supposedly in Chad. Tandja was allegedly planning to extend, again, his rule without resort to a messy vote. In what may be one of the best understatements of the year so far, a French diplomat said "All I can say is that it would appear that Tandja is not in a good position". Salou Djibo, a squadron chief, has assumed the leadership role.

Ukraine Election 2010

Image via Wikipedia

The loss of Ukraine to Russia following the election of Yanukovich on Sunday will significantly change the geo-political map in Eastern Europe and the Caucuses.

Assuming that the recent election process change by the Party of Regions in the Rada repealing the requirement that representatives of both candidates be present to supervise vote counting at polling stations is exactly what it seems - an effort to forestall any challenges to the vote due to fraud and the final destruction of the Orange Revolution forces - then the game is over.

In Eastern Europe, Poland and the Baltic States have good reason to become alarmed as Russia regains its historical base in Ukraine. A new line will be drawn and without support from their EU counterparts in Western Europe - particularly Germany -these NATO countries will be looking toward a virtually bankrupt Britain and the overstretched United States for bilateral support. Other than words, the US has committed to major military games in the Baltics during 2010 - a not so subtle hint to Moscow that the annexation of territory from Georgia is significantly different from similar attempts in the Baltics - all of which are NATO members.

The role of non-EU members will need to be ramped up in Eastern Europe to fill the compromised economic positions of Germany - dependent on Russia for energy - and France - whose President is more than easily persuaded to follow purely economic interests (e.g. potential sale of a Mistral class ship to Russia). After Sunday, Europe will be looking at a resurgent Russian Empire in the east - and not a democratic one.

In the Caucuses Georgia now stands alone following the loss of Ukraine to Russia. Previously an important ally, the two countries worked in tandem in opposing Russian expansionism. The relationship now could turn confrontational. Yanukovich was fiercely pro-Russian regarding the invasion of Georgia. When Yanukovich is elected it is likely that he will follow through on a promise to recognize Georgia's rebel regions as independent states. Moscow recognized South Ossetia and another rebel region, Abkhazia, as independent after the war, a move that has so far been followed by only Nicaragua, Venezuela and the Pacific island state of Nauru. This would be an easy foreign policy decision for Ukraine and would be an immediate sign that Ukraine will cooperate with Russia's foreign policies. Even Belarus has refused to take this step, to the annoyance of Moscow.

Turkey will also need take a deep breath as it is Russia's only strong regional competitor. Russia has been calling the shots in the Armenia/Azerbaijan talks. Armenia is already a client state of Russia and Azerbaijan is furious with its cultural brother, Turkey, for attempting to normalize relations with Armenia without resolution of the Ngorno Kharabach dispute. Turkey will need to balance its economic interests with its now much more powerful neighbor in the north against US hopes that Turkey would be a powerful buffer. Also, the Armenia normalization issue will be put on the back burner simply because of Russian control of the negotiations will push Turkey to expand its considerable influence in the Middle East. The continuing opposition to EU membership by France and Germany will add to a Turkish foreign policy emphasis away from Europe and a geo-political settlement in the Caucuses with Russia.

Distant from the borders of Russia and Ukraine, expect the acceleration of NATO membership of Montenegro which will leave Russia's sole ally in the region, Serbia, completely surrounded by NATO members. Additionally, as a move to protect the Baltic States, Sweden will likely move closer to NATO and increase its influence in the Baltic region while the US Defence Department has announced a realignment of forces in Europe to account for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s changing role and security issues such as events of the last couple of years in Georgia.

Following Sunday the map changes, which will mean a realignment of foreign policy objectives by Europe and the United States.

Aside from that it is a very sad day for Ukraine as under Yanukovich, a man with a criminal record who was unfortunately allowed to remain free after 2004 by the now disgraced Yushchenko, expect the media to be suppressed to please Moscow and for future elections to model themselves after the political structure of Russia.