Wikileaks Again

Yet again, the media (and for the benefit of a friend in Afghanistan likes to parse this sort of thing, I mean both broadcast and print) is touting as news the cables being dumped by the gossip channel Wikileaks.


Yes. I find the cables entertaining. I also think that the field staff for the US Department of State come off extremely well, exhibiting incite and knowledge in their recommendations and comments. Too bad no one in Washington listens to them. As for the releases in general, they are not, contrary to some hyper-ventilating politicians, particularly secret. The cables themselves were officially available to about 3 million people. None of the cables is labeled as top secret. Furthermore, all the cables are vetted and redacted not only by Wikileaks – but by its partners in the press. Rinse, repeat. All the cables are vetted and redacted by both Wikileaks and its partners in the press.

After a little digging, I find it hard to justify any legal recourse against Julian Assange and his people under any US law, which is why they are going after his bank accounts and convinced Amazon to drop dissemination. As for the purpose of Wikileaks, unfortunately it may actually produce exactly the opposite result that it contends to promote – transparency.

You can be sure that from the day of the first publication, fewer people in governments will have access to or be able to provide candid information about their local political and economic environment. This will actually hamper diplomacy and might lead to some unforeseen consequence. The Chinese government may be a little less ready to work with South Korea now that its cover has been blown with the non-revelation that it is not happy with North Korea. It’s sort of like telling someone who spent $10 million on a Picasso that it is a fake. It is not in their interest to prove you correct.

Nevertheless, it is nice to have confirmed that western nations are worried about Pakistan losing control of her nukes. But that is all it is – confirmation. Today’s release also confirmed that NATO and the US developed a plan to protect the Baltic states from Russia following the latter’s invasion of Georgia. Wow.Given the complaints by Russia regarding the treatment of ethnic Russians in those countries, and particularly in Estonia, around the time Russian tanks rolled across the Georgian border this could hardly have been surprising. I’m sure the Russian military was so shocked it needed to take a collective rest in a sanitorium in Crimea.

From a historian’s perspective, these documents are a gold-mine. They provide the type of background that helps to explain the context within which actions are taken. Expect a flood of books that re-write history as we know it based on the information contained in the cables.

In the meantime, the cables are like potato chips – addictive but without any substance.

Late addition:  Assange has said that he developed a poison-pill if he is arrested (likely) or killed (melodramatic self-importance) which will dump a massive amount of the really good stuff. Wait for it.

Wikileaks, Nothing New - except the DNA stuff

I'm still not astounded at anything in the diplomatic chatter released by Wikileaks.  It is not surprising that elements of China's leadership think that North Korea 1) behaves like a child; 2) needs to be brought under control and (least surprising of all) 3) believes that the Korean peninsula would be better off unified by the South.  It is also not surprising that most Arabs would prefer to see Persians vanish.  All this is a BGO - blinding grasp of the obvious.

What is surprising is why US State Department officials would want their diplomats to acquire DNA and other biometric data on foreigners. Not to mention how they were to go about it.

My Libyan Mystery Solved - Courtesy of Wikileaks

In November of 2009 I was assured of a Team Leader position with a project in Libya. At a meeting in London a month earlier I had been told that not only did the Libyan government want an American to head the project, but were insisting. So, I packed up from Central Asia and, at the request of the Egyptian firm which had hired me, flew to Cairo at the end of November despite the fact that I did not yet have a Libyan visa but which the Egyptians told me would be taken care of after I arrived. And I waited. And waited. For a month in Cairo (a city I never want to visit again for a variety of reasons).


The entire matter crashed and burned. I left Cairo and ended up two months later in Ghana. But, I never was given any adequate explanation why the visa was not issued. I suspect I now know why, courtesy of the recent Wikileaks dump.

This is from The Atlantic in the context of Libya’s agreement to abandon its nuclear ambitions:

Libya agreed to remove its weapons-grade materials and equipment shortly after a 2003 incident in which the U.S. government intercepted a ship bound for that country with Pakistani-made black-market centrifuges. For six years, Libyan officials complied with U.S.-led international efforts to dismantle the program. In November of last year, when officials without notice halted the dismantling process, the Libyans were down to their last 5.2 kilograms--not enough to make a conventional weapon, but sufficient for a dirty bomb.* A few days later, the U.S. embassy was contacted by Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi. The son of Muammar al-Qaddafi, Saif is widely seen as Libya's great hope for reform should he win out against his more conservative brother, Mutassim, and succeed their father. But on that day, Saif told the U.S. ambassador to Libya that he was "fed up" with the U.S.  (emphasis mine)

Now, I can’t be sure that my visa was denied because of the US passport – but the timing of incident is a little more than coincidental. And anyway, it satisfies my curiosity as to what happened.

Wikileaks Strikes - World Ends - Film at 11

This blog, more or less successfully, keeps to foreign policy and development matters (though not much on the latter as I’d like to keep my job until I find something in the private sector that is not funded by some government).  To the extent that Wikileaks touches on foreign policy, I am happy to address issues and revelations that are exposed in their publication of official documents.

However, let me first say this (caveat - I loathe US Republican congressman Peter King, the ranking member of the House of Representatives' Homeland Security Committee, and virtually everything he and his fanatic, screw- the- country-we-want- to- be- in- power party stand for):

Legally, it might be in the future for Wikileaks to be labeled as an international terrorist.  Although I do not see Wikileaks being designated as a foreign terrorist organization - difficult at best to prove since the criteria to be applied are narrow; nevertheless, the criteria for applying penalties for international terrorism are not so tight (I happen to think they are far too broad – but the law is the law).  The definition of "international terrorism" states that the activities must be "dangerous to human life" and "influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion".    If brought to court, any reasonably competent lawyer should be able to mount a vigorous and probably successful case against the application.  But maybe not. That’s not the point. 

 

The point is that classified documents that could harm the government and affect foreign policy in the short-term have been published.  I would expect the necessary actions against those who did it and they should be willing to accept the consequences of those actions.  If you’re going to be a revolutionary or are so upset with the current order that it is necessary to undertake actions that, though possibly illegal may change the order, that’s great.  Don’t whine, however, if the forces of order come after you.

Ok. Having gotten that bit of moralizing out of the way, I have to say that from what I’ve read so far, the revelations are not so astounding. Saudi Arabia wants the US to “cut off the head of the snake” by taking out Iran?  Wow. Saudi Arabia’s government is a prime target of Iran from a geopolitical and religious standpoint so their position is not so surprising.  Interesting to note, though, how many Arab governments are all for an attack on Iran – by someone else, of course.  

Is it surprising that US foreign policy advisers are unsure of the direction and intentions of the government in Ankara?  So is everyone else, including its neighbors who are none too eager to fall under the sway of a new Ottoman Empire. 

 

I personally liked the reference to the Russian leadership team as Batman and Robin.  Wikileaks strikes again.

Frankly, so far, the fact that diplomats say things in private that are not reported in public should not be the cause for earth shattering tremors.

Weekend Quick Hits - Korea, Wikileaks, START

China is stepping up to control the dangerous situation on the Korean peninsula - and if you don't think it is dangerous keep in mind that the political atmosphere in Seoul is toxic and another attack by the North Koreans may not be met with great restraint. However, this remark by its Foreign Ministry is an interesting example of how China views a US carrier battle group steaming around its front yard:

We oppose any military act by any party conducted in China's exclusive economic zone without approval.

From an international law standpoint, China is not on shaky ground here. There is no ground. If China somehow claiming that the Yellow Sea is off limits to any naval units then the Foreign Ministry in Beijing needs to go back to school.  I prefer to think this is for domestic consumption which is fine, but inherently dangerous as it sets up the reply: "Or else, what?" resulting in the loss of face from the ultimate climb down.

On another front, Wikileaks is about to publish another release which even the US is warning will contain some embarrassing documents including, it seems, US support for the PKK, Turkish support for al Qaeda supporters in Iraq and some unflattering characterizations of Russian leadership.  Of course, this is as yet speculation and it could very well be that the US was talking to the PKK - which is a terrorist organization but secular and opponents to the Kurdish Hezbollah which works with al Qaeda. This is called realpolitik. The idea that Turkey officially supports al Qaeda is absurd merely because it would involve the military which is not known for supporting non-secular movements.  Nevertheless, this could be fun. Really.

And entering the world of he terminally stupid (the US Republican party), Senator Richard Lugar (R - Indiana) one of the last of the breed with brains, had to warn members of the lizard party that the failure to ratify the treaty could have drastic consequences for other facets of U.S.-Russia nuclear cooperation -- especially the Nunn-Lugar effort to secure loose nuclear materials throughout the former Soviet Union. If START fails, the cooperation between the United States and Russia on securing loose nukes could be imperiled, representing an even bigger risk for national security, Lugar said.

The money quote:

There are still thousands of missiles out there. You better get that through your heads.