Iran Follow-Up Saudi Build-up

Speaking of Iran and the concerns of Saudi Arabia - the US withdrawal from Iraq has shaken the Saudi's.  As I mentioned, it is not the nuclear threat that Iran may pose - it is the conventional.  In the previous post, I neglected to mention this.

Iran Again

The chattering classes in Washington and Europe have been quiet of late regarding Iran, particularly in light of the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq - save for the 50,000 or so that remain.  But in light of the new sanctions imposed, what is being planned in response to the continued intransigence of the Iranian government? Frankly, anyone outside the White House, Pentagon and CIA who says they know, doesn't. 

The US foreign policy of force first, talking later, has produced a profound imbalance in the Middle East. Bush dismantled Iraq - the only power capable of presenting a problem to Tehran. The hand wringing over potential Iranian nuclear capability and the threat to Israel remains in full view and is dutifully reported by a compliant media, particularly in the US.  That is not the problem.

The media conveniently forgets that Iran has a significant, well trained military force capable of stirring the pot in the region. The country that is most concerned is not Israel. It is Saudi Arabia. And it is about oil.  Iran's trump card is not nuclear, it is messing about in the Persian Gulf.  So, aside from the fact that even a nuclear armed Iran would not pose a threat to the US, disrupting oil supplies would. 

Let's assume that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon next Saturday.  If an attack were launched to destroy all its nuclear facilities, and succeeded (far from a certainty) - so what?  The loss would be annoying for Iran, but still would leave it capable of disrupting oil flows, destabilizing Iraq completely and interfering with activities of NATO in Afghanistan.  This is not a nice scenario and which is why I dismiss all the talk about bombing Iran and taking out its nuclear facilities. 

Sanctions are ineffective and bombing would collapse the economies of the world as oil vanished  from the Persian Gulf.  Time to find a different way to get the attention of Tehran in a way that makes it reconsider its policies.

Turkey Rising - Redux

Image via Wikipedia

I admit that I am somewhat of a Turkophile, but the recent referendum on constitutional reforms has again demonstrated that Turkey is a key player – if not the key player – for Europe and the West in the Middle East.

For all the puffery of the prior US administration regarding building democracy in the Middle East by invading Iraq and threatening Iran, the foreign policy of Bush studiously ignored the growing democratic movement in Turkey. It is now taking the lead and, given European attitudes of exclusion toward countries and, more recently, ethnic groups, is likely to move forward without Europe or the US.
The first attempts at a renewed democratic movement ended with a whimper in the early 1990’s.

The conclusion was that liberalization and policies of inclusion - of the Kurds, non-Muslims and other ethnic groups – had failed. The trouble with this conclusion is that it is based on the childish assumption that people will support initiatives that improve society rather than voting against their own interests. People are generally inclined to only think of themselves. Just take a look at the return to the disaster of Republican policies in the US which brought that country an acceptance of torture, use of military force as the first resort. an economy geared to reward the wealthy and election of truly dangerously ignorant people who knew how to use fear of change and outright lies to retain power. Turkey has turned the corner on that particular obstacle with the 58% vote in favour of more democracy.

Turkey achieved this European Union sanctioned step-forward by a hitherto impossible alliance between conservative Moslems and liberals, both of whom suffered under what had become a limited democracy imposed by the military and the Kemalists who were stuck in the wrong century. Continuing this progress will not be easy, however, as the PKK terrorists have made very clear with continuing political violence to extent that they, like their Taliban counterparts, opposed participation in the national referendum.

From a foreign policy standpoint, the results for the government will strengthen their resolve to pursue their “peaceful neighbourhood” policy - much to the annoyance of those wishing for an attack on Iran and a continuance of the apartheid policies in Israel. This policy includes economic cooperation with its ancient competitor, Iran. Khodro, an Iranian carmaker, plans to manufacture automobiles in Turkey in a “free zone” to be established on the border between the two countries. This involves some risk as it is clear that Iran continues to pursue policies which, sooner or later, may have adverse consequences of a military nature. But, it expands Turkish influence.

The US/Turkey relationship is more complicated than that of Europe’s with Ankara. Both the US and Turkey foreign policy concerns interact regarding Israel and Iran. Unfortunately, the US Congress, about to be taken over by the most regressive minds of the country, will soon become more hostile and less pragmatic toward Turkey which is the straw-that-stirs the drink in the region. US foreign policy in the region is not reflective of its national interests. However, it would be a gross mistake to think that US policy will be able to influence events without Turkey’s assistance. Israel is no longer enough and, in any event, has managed to hold hostage US foreign policy for too long.

Turkey, on the other hand, cannot overplay its influence as, regardless of the growing economic ties with Iran, the latter remains a significant competitor which can upset any move toward peace in the region. Iran has a significant conventional military capability as well which, though no match for Turkey’s, could make matters worse in the Gulf region and Iraq. Turkey cannot afford to become too estranged from the US in that case.

The European Union, though not any closer to accepting Turkey into its club, will likely forge ahead with developing other forms of cooperation with Turkey. Turkey’s recent referendum which produced extended praise in Brussels will help to develop a closer relationship. This is no doubt on the minds of the AKP in Ankara as it ponders what to do with its soon to be far worse relationship with the US as a result of the Greek and Armenian lobbies as well as the religious far right take-over in the US. This is an opportunity for Brussels for political and economic diplomacy after a summer of disastrous economic problems triggered by the financial melt-down of an irresponsible Greece.

Finally, should it be necessary to point out that the US is far away and its only super-power status is its military reach? Moscow certainly has taken notice of this weakness and has vastly increased its influence in Turkey. Moscow holds the key to the Ngorno-Kharabakh and its recent military treaty with Armenia should, but won’t, wake up the Armenian diaspora in the US which continues to wield political influence far beyond what it should to prevent any sort of agreement among Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Ankara wants a solution in the NK. The deal it strikes with the Kremlin and Baku in the future will stun the diaspora. Any deal will increase Russian influence in the South Caucuses but will fall into the Turkish foreign policy framework established by the AKP – whether the US likes it or not.

Barring a major outbreak of violence or an attack on Iran by the US (Israel has no hope of doing that alone) Ankara will become the overwhelming “go-to” country in the region.

Florida Pastor and the Koran

Nice to know that an insignificant, red-neck Christian taliban preacher from no-where Florida can adversely impact US foreign policy interests and threaten to burn the religous text of a billion or so people.  As the US electorate is poised to re-enter the Bush era where US foreign policy offended everyone, they should recall that their troops are still in Iraq (and not leaving anytime soon despite their withdrawal from cities) and are in active combat in Afghanistan protecting a corrupt Molselm government from a fanatical Moslem group.  Their oil comes from Moslem countries which happen to be considered important US alllies and they are paying large amounts of their tax dollars to Inida's Moslem neighbor.

Oh. One other thing. As a born and raised New Yorker, I'd like to suggest to red-neck Republican America to keep their bigoted noses out of New York City.

Winter Break

For about a month I have been too busy with actual work to post.  I've chosen to call it my double super secret winter break ("Animal House" version).  It is now over and spring is here.  For those who don't know, I am currently in Lesotho.

I'm hoping to add my two cents to the prognostications (all bad to grim) regarding the renewed Israeli - Palestinian talks as well as the dangerously fluid Iraq political situation and the off-the-front page Central Asia region and the foreign policy shifts in Russia.  I hope to avoid any comments, as usual, on the increasingly dangerous movement in the US toward an intolerant, ignorant, right wing society - but will comment on the risk that shift poses to the rest of the world.  Finally, I hope to add more posts on thrusts within the development community and the impacts of aid interventions.

Posts begin today.

The Ware Crimes of Charles Taylor

Last week and this, International Criminal Court received the attention it deserves because of Hollywood and glamour.  Pity it took the testimony of Naomi Campbell and that of Mia Farrow, who contradicted her, to turn the spotlight on the trial of a leader who allegedly used blood diamonds to pay for a civil war in neighboring Sierra Leone. 

It should be noted, however, that the prosecution's case is pretty weak if this testimony is the strongest evidence they've got.  But at least the media, particularly the myopic one in the US, paid attention.  That's something, I guess.

Putin at 10

Image by World Economic Forum via Flickr

First, yes. I know. Long, long dry spell between posts.  As usual, my day job has tripped me up.  Live with it.

Probably few have noticed but Vladimir Putin has now been in power for over 10 years.  Plucked from nowhere by a failing Boris Yeltsin, he succeeded in restructuring Russia - sometimes not in a good way - with the massive support and approval of the Russian people.  He crushed the nascent free media. He crushed the oligarchs - at lease those who refused to tow the line.

The devastating heat wave and fires during the past month have dented his popularity - but there are few countries in the world who don't blame their leaders  for events beyond their control. Like the weather.  But, then, people are not particularly smart in general and like easy answers.  Most of the time it is the response to disasters that usually kill the politician.  This phenomenon has taken aim at the Russian Prime Minister where calls for his resignation have surfaced this week.  Ain't gonna happen.

Putin will be remembered for consolidating the state and not indulging in revolutionary fervour. As a result, changes that started and faltered under the Yeltsin years have taken place merely because Putin said "do it".

Last May when I was in Moscow to review progress on the consolidation of a certain number of government agencies - something my colleagues and I advocated in 1995 - the progress that had been made when Putin had said "do it" three years ago was astounding.  He also cleared out the old - aged and backward vodka swilling - guard in government, replacing it with very bright and very young professionals. 

I saw a report recently that while visiting Nizhny Novgorod - the fourth largest city in the country - he promised those standing amid smoldering ruins that once had been their homes that all would be rebuild before November. Indeed, work had already begun. All because Putin said "do it".

From a human rights, civil society and media freedom perspective, I don't particularly like him.  But, more leaders should be able to get things done with similar determination.