Turkey and Israel - Failed Alliance; Dangerous Talk

Not to be an alarmist and, as everyone knows I don't like predictions because they are based on the selective past, but the sort of warning issued by Turkey to Israel regarding the freedom of passage in the Eastern Med is not helpful. 

The anger in Ankara with Israel is palpable and not without reason; but its explosive PM is sometimes over-the-top in his frequently pointed remarks, and as I've previously pointed out, Turkey needs to learn a little more diplomacy in its pronouncements regardless of the obvious temptation to tell others to piss-off or imply military action.  The most recent example is the following: “Turkey would take every precaution it deems necessary for the safety of maritime navigation in the eastern Mediterranean.” (a reasonable statement by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu) but which was followed by a clarification from an un-named Turkish official who said "A more aggressive strategy will be pursued. Israel will no longer be able to exercise its bullying practices freely...”  What the hell does that mean in terms of rules of engagement?

The region is in turmoil. Syria is in melt-down mode. A vote on Palestinian statehood is coming up at the UN. Egypt is still unstable. Hamas and Hezbollah are facing problems - the first with a still military controlled Egypt and the latter with the loss of Syria. A vote for Palestinian statehood may provoke a new intifada. Israel has already called up reserves. The US is pulling out and has no stomach for a fight with anyone.

A highly visible confrontation between the two naval forces would simply add to the regions problems and Turkish naval officers may run into equally nervous Israeli captains.  It's this sort of rhetoric that leads to "regrettable incidents resulting in loss of life".  Everyone needs to dial it down before the middle east goes up in flames.

Turkish warships will be more frequently seen in the area but their rules of engagement must be circumscribed and publicly announced.

Israel Says No - Again

The negative reaction to President Obama's speach by Benjamin Netenyahu - specifically the suggestion that the borders revert to pre-1967 with some adjustments,  indicates that Israel under the current adminstration has no intention ever of recognizing the Palestinian right to a homeland.  The excuse this time is that those borders were "indefensible".  The justification for rejection is new and is based on the optics. It makes the Israeli position of holding on to illegal communities in the West Bank a non-issue. Or it attempts to do so.  It is, on the surface, an eminently reasonable position.

It is not.  Israel has no problem defending the pre-1967 border.  It had successfully defended the border and then went on the offensive.  This justification is meant to muddy the waters. The IDF is the most powerful military in the region and, furthemore, does not need to contend with either the Jordian or Egyptian military.  Syria is contrained for two reasons. The first is that its angle of attack is extraordinarily poor. The second is that its military is a joke.

No.  This Israeli government is unwilling to discuss a Palestinian state.  And one will be coming by September.

This Can't Be Good...

Lesson learned - if you are the leader of a country in turmoil, don't leave for a foreign trip if you expect to stay in power. 

Prime Minister Saad Hariri of Lebanon is now a caretaker courtesy of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah toppled the government over a long-running dispute linked to a U.N. probe into the 2005 assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri which is poised to indict several Hezbollah members for their involvement.  Hezbollah has been threatening that if Hariri did not disavow the investigation then they would take action. 

Syria is Hezbollah's main ally through which it receives money and other support from Iran.  Iran needs Hezbollah to keep its foot in the door in the Levant and to threaten Israel. The scene is about to become a lot more complex and dangerous.

What is Syria's interest here?  First and foremost, it sees Lebanon as Syrian - perhaps no longer physically, but certainly politically.  But Hezbollah, which has served Syrian interests, is dead in the water without Iran. Syria is going to have to make a choice between its interests and those of Hezbollah and Iran.

If Hezbollah succeeds in seizing control of the government, Syria may be faced with the unpalatable choice of reducing its support to Hezbollah by constricting its supplies or another Israeli assault which could easily suck in Damascus. From a geo-political standpoint, Syria should not want Iran to increase its footprint. Some sort of Syrian intervention is going to be necessary, but likely will not come until after the UN indictments. Then, Syria has its excuse.

Turkey may also become involved both to increase its influence at the expense of Iran and reduce tensions to avoid a military escalation. But it remains to be seen what influence Turkey can actually muster.

I find it hard to believe that Hezbollah is indulging in the type of power play that might result in a severe problem for itself and Syria. However, this is Lebanon where nothing is clear-cut.

Random End of Year Thoughts

I've been away from my usual place of work, recouperating in the Seychelles which improved my less than stellar French and driving on the left without careening into trees or oncoming traffic.  At least there - as opposed to here - driving is civilized, correct and polite.

My objective while away was to refrain from outside contact.  I succeeded - with no computer, no phone(mobile or otherwise) and no newspapers (which I've largely stopped reading anyway).  On returning to my terribly unique place of work (so the natives seem to believe) I noted a couple of things happened in the world despite my vacation.

The first is that President Lukashenko was re-elected in a landslide.  I'm shocked. Let's see if Brussels can figure out a greater than submissive response to the joke of Eastern Europe. It is time to dump the Eastern Partnership Program as it applies to Belarus. It may be time to seek alternative means to rid Europe and Belarus of Mr. Lukashenko - whether the Kremlin likes it or not.

Speaking of the Kremlin, a Moscow court on Monday found jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky guilty in his second fraud trial, a judgment that should be seen as a pivotal moment in Russia's post-Soviet history . This joke of rule of law should be a warning to potential investors that Russia is not a safe place to do business, that democracy of any form is dead and that it is time for the world to see the back of Putin and his concept of "controlled democracy".   Foreign policy dealings with Moscow should reflect that this is not a free country but is rather one with no press freedom, saddled with a legal system riddled with corruption and a government that is little better than a dictatorship, marginally better than China, but without the grace.

Then, of course, there is Israel whose foreign policy is being run by the boorish, dangerous, car-salesman from Moldova. If anyone must go, and go soon, it is the current government.  It is isolating Israel through genuinely stupid remarks made by Lieberman, a simpleminded thug. Although both Turkey and Israel have been trying to reconcile behind closed doors, Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the fundamentalist wing of Netanyahu’s right wing government appears determined to be a total spoiler of any rapprochement between the two. The fact that Lieberman is under investigation for corruption yet still controls the foreign policy of the country is appalling.  In 2011 there will be recognition of an independent Palestinian state wheter Israel likes it or not. The war for more bedroom space will enter a new phase.

Then Hugo the Pompous of Venezuela didn't like the last election result so he has arranged for the lame duck legislature to allow him to rule by decree for 18 months.  Now, a true dictator, he too needs to go.

Finally, Africa remains itself.  The refusal of the Ivory Coast strongman Laurent Gbagbo to step down following his election loss is an African leadership disease. It remains to be seen whether Africa will back up its threat to oust him by force. They failed with Mugabe.

Middle East - Outside the Box

This is a good idea.  It is outside the box. It undercuts opppositon on both sides.

The current round of Isreali-Palestinian negotiations will be as successful as the previous.  Almost as successful as Doha or the recently concluded aid conference in New York City.  Even Hamas would have trouble dealing with this idea because opposing it would reveal to the world exactly what everyone knows - that it is nothing but a gang of terrorists who happen to have gotten control over a piece of land by promising the people of Gaza ultimate victory - no economy, but ultimate victory. 

Worth a try.

Iran Again

The chattering classes in Washington and Europe have been quiet of late regarding Iran, particularly in light of the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq - save for the 50,000 or so that remain.  But in light of the new sanctions imposed, what is being planned in response to the continued intransigence of the Iranian government? Frankly, anyone outside the White House, Pentagon and CIA who says they know, doesn't. 

The US foreign policy of force first, talking later, has produced a profound imbalance in the Middle East. Bush dismantled Iraq - the only power capable of presenting a problem to Tehran. The hand wringing over potential Iranian nuclear capability and the threat to Israel remains in full view and is dutifully reported by a compliant media, particularly in the US.  That is not the problem.

The media conveniently forgets that Iran has a significant, well trained military force capable of stirring the pot in the region. The country that is most concerned is not Israel. It is Saudi Arabia. And it is about oil.  Iran's trump card is not nuclear, it is messing about in the Persian Gulf.  So, aside from the fact that even a nuclear armed Iran would not pose a threat to the US, disrupting oil supplies would. 

Let's assume that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon next Saturday.  If an attack were launched to destroy all its nuclear facilities, and succeeded (far from a certainty) - so what?  The loss would be annoying for Iran, but still would leave it capable of disrupting oil flows, destabilizing Iraq completely and interfering with activities of NATO in Afghanistan.  This is not a nice scenario and which is why I dismiss all the talk about bombing Iran and taking out its nuclear facilities. 

Sanctions are ineffective and bombing would collapse the economies of the world as oil vanished  from the Persian Gulf.  Time to find a different way to get the attention of Tehran in a way that makes it reconsider its policies.

Turkey Rising - Redux

Image via Wikipedia

I admit that I am somewhat of a Turkophile, but the recent referendum on constitutional reforms has again demonstrated that Turkey is a key player – if not the key player – for Europe and the West in the Middle East.

For all the puffery of the prior US administration regarding building democracy in the Middle East by invading Iraq and threatening Iran, the foreign policy of Bush studiously ignored the growing democratic movement in Turkey. It is now taking the lead and, given European attitudes of exclusion toward countries and, more recently, ethnic groups, is likely to move forward without Europe or the US.
The first attempts at a renewed democratic movement ended with a whimper in the early 1990’s.

The conclusion was that liberalization and policies of inclusion - of the Kurds, non-Muslims and other ethnic groups – had failed. The trouble with this conclusion is that it is based on the childish assumption that people will support initiatives that improve society rather than voting against their own interests. People are generally inclined to only think of themselves. Just take a look at the return to the disaster of Republican policies in the US which brought that country an acceptance of torture, use of military force as the first resort. an economy geared to reward the wealthy and election of truly dangerously ignorant people who knew how to use fear of change and outright lies to retain power. Turkey has turned the corner on that particular obstacle with the 58% vote in favour of more democracy.

Turkey achieved this European Union sanctioned step-forward by a hitherto impossible alliance between conservative Moslems and liberals, both of whom suffered under what had become a limited democracy imposed by the military and the Kemalists who were stuck in the wrong century. Continuing this progress will not be easy, however, as the PKK terrorists have made very clear with continuing political violence to extent that they, like their Taliban counterparts, opposed participation in the national referendum.

From a foreign policy standpoint, the results for the government will strengthen their resolve to pursue their “peaceful neighbourhood” policy - much to the annoyance of those wishing for an attack on Iran and a continuance of the apartheid policies in Israel. This policy includes economic cooperation with its ancient competitor, Iran. Khodro, an Iranian carmaker, plans to manufacture automobiles in Turkey in a “free zone” to be established on the border between the two countries. This involves some risk as it is clear that Iran continues to pursue policies which, sooner or later, may have adverse consequences of a military nature. But, it expands Turkish influence.

The US/Turkey relationship is more complicated than that of Europe’s with Ankara. Both the US and Turkey foreign policy concerns interact regarding Israel and Iran. Unfortunately, the US Congress, about to be taken over by the most regressive minds of the country, will soon become more hostile and less pragmatic toward Turkey which is the straw-that-stirs the drink in the region. US foreign policy in the region is not reflective of its national interests. However, it would be a gross mistake to think that US policy will be able to influence events without Turkey’s assistance. Israel is no longer enough and, in any event, has managed to hold hostage US foreign policy for too long.

Turkey, on the other hand, cannot overplay its influence as, regardless of the growing economic ties with Iran, the latter remains a significant competitor which can upset any move toward peace in the region. Iran has a significant conventional military capability as well which, though no match for Turkey’s, could make matters worse in the Gulf region and Iraq. Turkey cannot afford to become too estranged from the US in that case.

The European Union, though not any closer to accepting Turkey into its club, will likely forge ahead with developing other forms of cooperation with Turkey. Turkey’s recent referendum which produced extended praise in Brussels will help to develop a closer relationship. This is no doubt on the minds of the AKP in Ankara as it ponders what to do with its soon to be far worse relationship with the US as a result of the Greek and Armenian lobbies as well as the religious far right take-over in the US. This is an opportunity for Brussels for political and economic diplomacy after a summer of disastrous economic problems triggered by the financial melt-down of an irresponsible Greece.

Finally, should it be necessary to point out that the US is far away and its only super-power status is its military reach? Moscow certainly has taken notice of this weakness and has vastly increased its influence in Turkey. Moscow holds the key to the Ngorno-Kharabakh and its recent military treaty with Armenia should, but won’t, wake up the Armenian diaspora in the US which continues to wield political influence far beyond what it should to prevent any sort of agreement among Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Ankara wants a solution in the NK. The deal it strikes with the Kremlin and Baku in the future will stun the diaspora. Any deal will increase Russian influence in the South Caucuses but will fall into the Turkish foreign policy framework established by the AKP – whether the US likes it or not.

Barring a major outbreak of violence or an attack on Iran by the US (Israel has no hope of doing that alone) Ankara will become the overwhelming “go-to” country in the region.

Independent Investigation Launched - Turkish Gaza Flotilla

About time.  Although it will come as a surprise to no one that Israel will refuse to cooperate with the UN on this investgation.

Overcoverage of Issues and Events

I have to admit that I’ve been lax in posting. There are two reasons for this outside of the need to actually complete some work. The first is the extreme obviousness of many topics and issues about which I could write if they were not so obvious, and the second is the useless warnings that bubble up about the necessity to deal with these issues to avoid the giant rocks from space that are sure to obliterate the planet if we don’t solve the problem NOW - but, well - let’s just list a few…


Israeli intransigent refusals to deal with any issue to move the region closer to peace,

Iranian intransigent rejection to agree on any solution dealing with anything,

Somali pirates seizing yet another ship (and being paid-off),

German pronouncements on their superior work ethic versus everyone with a shade darker skin colour

Greek worker riots as a result of reduced payments for doing nothing anyway,

Spanish riots as a result of Greek riots and 40% unemployment among youth,

French riots as a result of being French,

G20 meetings,

G8 meetings,

G pick-a-number meetings,

The imminent implosion of the Euro and the end of civilization,

North Korean insanity

In that light, a hat tip to Drezner for posting this:

An ineffectual international organization yesterday issued a stark warning about a situation it has absolutely no power to change, the latest in a series of self-serving interventions by toothless intergovernmental bodies.

“We are seriously concerned about this most serious outbreak of seriousness,” said the head of the institution, either a former minister from a developing country or a mid-level European or American bureaucrat. “This is a wake-up call to the world. They must take on board the vital message that my organization exists.”

The director of the body, based in one of New York, Washington or an agreeable Western European city, was speaking at its annual conference, at which ministers from around the world gather to wring their hands impotently about the most fashionable issue of the day. The organization has sought to justify its almost completely fruitless existence by joining its many fellow talking-shops in highlighting whatever crisis has recently gained most coverage in the global media.

“Governments around the world must come together to combat whatever this year’s worrying situation has turned out to be,” the director said. “It is not yet time to panic, but if it goes on much further without my institution gaining some credit for sounding off on the issue, we will be justified in labeling it a crisis.”

The organization, whose existence the White House barely acknowledges and to which hardly any member government intends to give more money or extra powers, has long been fighting a war of attrition against its own irrelevance. By making a big deal out of the fact that the world’s most salient topical issue will be placed on its agenda and then issuing a largely derivative annual report on the subject, it hopes to convey the entirely erroneous impression that it has any influence whatsoever on the situation.

The intervention follows a resounding call to action in the communiqué of the Group of [number goes here] countries at their recent summit in a remote place no-one had previously heard of. The G[number goes here] meeting was preceded by the familiar interminable and inconclusive discussions about whether the G[number goes here] was sufficiently representative of the international community, or whether it should be expanded into a G[number plus 1, 2 or higher goes here] including China, India or any other scary emerging market country that attendees cared to name.

The story was given further padding by a study from an ambulance-chasing Washington think-tank, which warned that it would continue to convene media conference calls until its quixotic and politically suicidal plan to ameliorate whatever crisis was gathering had been given respectful though substantially undeserved attention.

I'll be back soon  with a post on one or more of the topics listed above. Or maybe something not sufficiently covered by the MSM.

Last Word on Israel

As the spin out of Israel unravels and Netanyahu defends his regime, this is spot on.

Israel is to the US as North Korea is to China

Thought for the day: 

President Obama needs to sit down with Hu Jintao and trade ideas on how to handle behaviourly challenged children who are seriously alarming the neighbors with thunderingly moronic actions.

Israel Takes the Low Road

The government of Israel has crossed a serious line in the operation against a Turkish flotilla heading toward Gaza. Fifteen people were killed by Israeli troops, including a Turkish member of parliament. Belgium Foreign Minister Steven Vanackere said the Israeli military attack on an aid flotilla headed for Gaza “looks like it was rather disproportionate”. Israel has been forced to advise all its nationals to leave Turkey.


The stupidity of Netanyahu and his cabinet is almost unbelievable if it did not fit a consistent pattern of alienating allies and attempting to provoke an attack on Iran.
One of the more profoundly predictably hawks, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission was simply an attempt to provoke Israel. Logic would dictate that if that was the case, and it certainly was, the last thing to do would be to take the bait. But, true to form, the Israels fed the view that they are not only unreasonable, but brutal by being exactly that.

If the Israeli government possessed even a modicum of grey matter at this point they would have avoided falling into this particular trap. However, in the black and white apartheid world of this Israeli government, logic did not prevail.

The Turkish NGO flotilla was designed to divide Israel and Western governments and to create a political crisis inside Israel. It has now, courtesy of the Netanyahu government, succeeded spectacularly. It is difficult to underestimate the damage that this has done to perceptions of Israel. Relations with the US and Europe, where relations are already strained, will deteriorate further.

Israel’s relationship with Turkey, a rare and extremely powerful Moslem ally which just happens to be a member of NATO, can now be consigned to the trash bin. The isolation of Israel is now going to get much, much worse and siding with Israel on this issue is not in the interests of any Western country. Israeli sabre rattling about Iran will no longer be viewed as simply an arguable position. Israel is in an extremely precarious position.
The best outcome now would be new elections and the removal of the hardliners from power in Israel.

Growing Authoritarianism in Isreal

Israel is setting up procedures that are a violation of the Geneva Conventions. Under the current government, Israel is becoming more isolated as its former supporters, including your humble blogger, have doubts about whether it believes in basic democratic principals or is intent on pandering to its religious extremists by continuing to invoke religious reasons for its occupation of the West Bank and inflaming the region.


The matter at hand is the report in the Guardian and a new “Order Regarding Prevention of Infiltration and Order Regarding Security Provisions”, which comes into force on Tuesday. According to Israeli human rights’ activists, the order can label any foreigners living in the West Bank as infiltrators and deported within 72 hours or jailed for seven years if they are found without the correct permit. It does not define what Israel considers a valid permit. We know which "foreigners" are targetted.

This is called ethnic cleansing and is prohibited by the Geneva Conventions. It is clearly in preparation for the approaching threat by West Bank Palestinians to unilaterally declare an independent state.

Wrap this latest move together with the constant attempts to get the US to attack Iran, the insults to its former ally, Turkey, additional settlement activity on the West Bank and Netanyahu’s cowardly avoidance of the nuclear summit that began today in Washington and you have the makings of a rogue government that is no better than the religious zealots running Iran. Except this one actually has nuclear weapons.

Turkey and Israel - Again

PM Erdoğan of Turkey appears to be in a race with Foreign Minister Lieberman of Israel to see who can create the most poisonous between the two countries.


There is obviously nothing wrong with the Turkish PM expressing the opinions of the Turkish state regarding the actions of another country. However, there is a time and place and should not be the constant drumbeat it has become. He appears to be taking every opportunity to poke a stick into Israel which he knows, or should know, will elicit an immoderate response from Lieberman – a master at intemperate, childish remarks.

The purpose of Erdoğan’s not-quite-hyperbolic observations is quite clear – a major Moslem voice of a secular nation that is part of NATO which can, and does, throw its considerable weight around in the region will have its opinions seriously considered. If Iran, Syria or Libya voices those same opinions they are easily dismissed. When Turkey says it, people actually pay attention. Lieberman understands this, which might explain some his instantaneous tantrums and perpetual crabbiness. But, enough is enough.

Whether the substance of what Erdoğan says is true or not is irrelevant. Many already agree with his statements on Israeli policies regarding Palestinians, Gaza and illegal settlements – the latter endorsed, according to some, by God, the Old Testament or Better Homes and Gardens.

Many in the Middle East, Europe and the US already think the government headed by Netanyahu is dangerous to others and itself. Lieberman, however, is not. He is a loudmouth spokesman with the attitude of a hyper-sugared twelve year old. Although he has a voice in establishing Israel’s foreign policy, he does not form it. Netanyahu does and he needs to tell Lieberman to shut up and not respond to Erdoğan’s internally driven statements. And Erdoğan needs to dial it down a bit under the circumstances and stop switching into assault mode at every international convention. He has made his point for his domestic and regional audience, the United States and Europe. None of the vituperative jousting is helpful now and only increases the perception of the current Israeli government that it is under siege.

Quick Hit on Dubai and Israel

The pun is entirely intended with profuse apologies.

But...what are Israel and its security service thinking? I've followed with astonishment the increasingly pointed and detailed reports on the alleged Israeli assassination of a Hamas operative in a Dubai hotel and at the Israeli miscalculation of the blow back from such a poorly constructed plan that used stolen identities of Israeli citizens to provide cover. Sloppy trade craft. Oh, and saying that the involvement of Israeli intelligence services is 'not proven' is an absurd statement amounting to an admission. Pathetic. The identity theft should be a gold-mine for attorney's because the damage to these innocent people is immense.

The Netanyahu government is off the international rails and, no, I am not a fan of Hamas - so stow your comments in that regard.

Good News Bad News - Afghanistan and the West Bank

Some time ago I offered my opinion of the,then, proposed surge in Afghanistan - the request by General McChrystal for a significant increase in troop deployment. He got 30,000 (the media seems to continue to ignore the previous deployment of 12,000 earlier in 2009 making the total over 40,000 so I will too for now).

The Republicans, of course, stamped their collective hooves saying the General should get whatever he feels is necessary for prosecution of the war. Fortunately, the grown-ups decided to actually think about future strategy rather than allowing the military to dictate to the civilians in control (a source of frequent confusion to those in perpetual opposition to anything). Well, what will all those Republicans say now to this (registration required).

For those who can't access the article in the Financial Times here is a key part:

“As a soldier, my personal feeling is that there’s been enough fighting,” he said. “What I think we do is try to shape conditions which allow people to come to a truly equitable solution to how the Afghan people are governed.”

Asked if he would be content to see Taliban leaders in a future government in Kabul, he said: “I think any Afghans can play a role if they focus on the future, and not the past.”

The remarks reveal the growing faith the US military is placing in the hope that a power-sharing arrangement can end the war, a possibility floated in Islamabad last week by Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, when he described the Taliban as part of Afghanistan’s “political fabric”.

The coming conference in London to discuss strategy will be a crucial meeting for NATO. Europe wants a definite exit strategy and the US has already issued a deadline to President Karzai. Although I did not agree with the surge, now that it is in place arguing about its usefulness is moot. General McChrystal has also tied his credibility to the request to support his plan, so he has much at stake. But, it is his sentiments expressed that I find most telling. It should really upset the Republicans. Good.

Now, juxtapose his statements with those of The Worst Israeli President Ever while planting a tree in the West Bank:

"Our message is clear: We are planting here, we will stay here, we will build here. This place will be an inseparable part of Israel for eternity".

Eternity, Mr. Netanyahu, is a lot longer than you will be in charge. Not helpful at all and is only a further example of the extremist positions taken by the current regime in Israel that really began manifesting itself with the childish incident of the low chair for the Turkish ambassador. Well, people usual get the government they deserve.

Israeli Deeds vs Words

Israel purports to support economic development for Palestinians as an antidote to extremism bred out of poverty. That policy is being put to an interesting test and the Israeli government appears, again, to be failing in its self-proclaimed effort to promote Palestinian economic stability and growth. This is not the first time, of course, and the treatment of Palestinians who happen also to be Israeli citizens is not exactly the same as other Israelis. An example is the construction of walkways in Palestinian areas of Jerusalem that are deliberately set lower than where Jewish citizens walk. The placement of the shorter chair for the Turkish ambassador is a recent example of this type of degrading action targeted at those whom the Israel government is displeased.

In any event, the report of the construction of a new, planned suburban town called Rawabi in the West Bank,funded by a Qatari firm, to house Palestinians in an American type suburban setting, puts Israeli words up against deeds. The issue in question is not the construction of the complex (which has already begun), but access. The entire access road runs through Palestinian territory - except for 3 kilometers(just short of 2 miles)under Israeli control. Without an access road no one will buy or rent in the new town. So far, the Israeli government has refused to answer the requests by the developers and has even refused to comment to the AP.

The current Israeli administration needs to respond quickly and positively to this type of activity. To continue to fail to do so says more about this government's future plans for the West Bank and the Palestinian state than any statements to the contrary.

Israeli Loose Cannon

Image via Wikipedia

Summoning the ambassador of the major power and normally friendly neighbor and treating him like this is profoundly stupid. Too stoop to this type of childish behavior over a television show makes it even worse, if that is possible. Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon should be fired - or made ambassador to some suitable place - Vanuatu comes to mind - where he can't inflict any more damage in a region becoming more unstable by the day.

It might also be beneficial to remind Israel that aside from severe (and beginning to seem justifiable) criticism of Israel's attack in Gaza, Turkey has always worked closely with them. Alienating your last friend in the region - and the most powerful at that - is not a good plan of action. But then I think this is the worst possible government Israel has ever elected. You tend to reap what you sow. Perhaps you've heard of this, Danny?

Predictions

And off we go.

In the 1st year of the next decade (yeah, yeah, I know - it really starts in 2011. Well, that's not the common usage, so live with it.) I'll indulge in a couple of predictions.

Prediction 1 - The last free and fair election in Ukraine will be in January if Yanukovich wins so he can fulfill his threat to end "democracy".

Prediction 2 - The new Russian empire will expand and consolidate its hold on Central Asia, Ukraine and the South Caucuses.

Prediction 3 - The US will increase its military footprint in the Baltics and Poland to counter the newly imperial Russia.

Prediction 4 - Turkey will flex its newly found military, economic and (most importantly) cultural muscle in the Middle East, most of the time against the wishes of the US and Israel.

Prediction 5 - Iran will continue to experience shocks to its social system with a concomitant reduction in its ability to interfere abroad until it reaches a tipping point - at which time they will do something stupid.

Prediction 6 - There will be a ground assault on Somali pirates.

Prediction 7 - The "surge" in Afghanistan will not achieve its intended goals, and the Afghan military will continue to be the phantom army of the 21st century.

Prediction 8 - Political relations between Germany and the US will continue their slide as Germany becomes more reliant on Russia for energy and trade.

Prediction 9 - The Israeli government will continue its illegal construction activities on Palestinian land despite international condemnation and new fighting will erupt between Hezbollah and Israel.

Prediction 10 - All the previous predictions will change as the inevitable chaos theory takes over.

Welcome to the next decade.

Ahmadinejad - Again

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Iran has a 3,000 year history. Having someone like Ahmadinejad running the show is tragic. His venemous speach at the Friday sermon entitled "Jerusalem Day" was enriched with some of the worst anti-Semetic remarks to-date, including a complete denial of the Holocost. Juan Cole has the best analysis, as usual.

Despite all the hate erupting from Ahmadinejad's mouth, fortunately he is not in control of Iran's foreign policy and certainly has done little to assist the Palestinians so his support does not ring true - and they know it. It will be important for the US and the West in general not to over-react to Iranian pretensions of power coupled with Ahmadinejad's views. Israel needs to show restraint, and likely will refrain from any military action - which would need American assent in any case.

Ahmadinejad will not be there forever.