Random End of Year Thoughts

I've been away from my usual place of work, recouperating in the Seychelles which improved my less than stellar French and driving on the left without careening into trees or oncoming traffic.  At least there - as opposed to here - driving is civilized, correct and polite.

My objective while away was to refrain from outside contact.  I succeeded - with no computer, no phone(mobile or otherwise) and no newspapers (which I've largely stopped reading anyway).  On returning to my terribly unique place of work (so the natives seem to believe) I noted a couple of things happened in the world despite my vacation.

The first is that President Lukashenko was re-elected in a landslide.  I'm shocked. Let's see if Brussels can figure out a greater than submissive response to the joke of Eastern Europe. It is time to dump the Eastern Partnership Program as it applies to Belarus. It may be time to seek alternative means to rid Europe and Belarus of Mr. Lukashenko - whether the Kremlin likes it or not.

Speaking of the Kremlin, a Moscow court on Monday found jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky guilty in his second fraud trial, a judgment that should be seen as a pivotal moment in Russia's post-Soviet history . This joke of rule of law should be a warning to potential investors that Russia is not a safe place to do business, that democracy of any form is dead and that it is time for the world to see the back of Putin and his concept of "controlled democracy".   Foreign policy dealings with Moscow should reflect that this is not a free country but is rather one with no press freedom, saddled with a legal system riddled with corruption and a government that is little better than a dictatorship, marginally better than China, but without the grace.

Then, of course, there is Israel whose foreign policy is being run by the boorish, dangerous, car-salesman from Moldova. If anyone must go, and go soon, it is the current government.  It is isolating Israel through genuinely stupid remarks made by Lieberman, a simpleminded thug. Although both Turkey and Israel have been trying to reconcile behind closed doors, Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the fundamentalist wing of Netanyahu’s right wing government appears determined to be a total spoiler of any rapprochement between the two. The fact that Lieberman is under investigation for corruption yet still controls the foreign policy of the country is appalling.  In 2011 there will be recognition of an independent Palestinian state wheter Israel likes it or not. The war for more bedroom space will enter a new phase.

Then Hugo the Pompous of Venezuela didn't like the last election result so he has arranged for the lame duck legislature to allow him to rule by decree for 18 months.  Now, a true dictator, he too needs to go.

Finally, Africa remains itself.  The refusal of the Ivory Coast strongman Laurent Gbagbo to step down following his election loss is an African leadership disease. It remains to be seen whether Africa will back up its threat to oust him by force. They failed with Mugabe.

Off to Africa Again

Starting Saturday I will post very little for at least a week or more. Work, as usual, has stuck its needful nose into my numerous non-profitable undertakings. I'll be in Kyiv and then back in Istanbul and then on to Lesotho.

From Lesotho, hopefully on March 13th or so, I'll be on line again. In the meantime, no revolutions without prior written notice please.

Oh, and like Cato the Elder: Watch out for Russia. (Not quite as energetic as "Cartago delenda est", but hey, its more politic...)

Out of Africa

Image via Wikipedia

Done. In a few days I'll be leaving Tanzania, hoping to return to run the project we have proposed and which the Ministry with which I've been working appears to be very eager to implement. If they - and particularly the normally snail paced World Bank decision process - move quickly enough then in six months I could be back for several years. Would be fun.

Africa View

As I wind up my work here in Tanzania to head for the Middle East I thought a few photo's would be in order. The animals rule Ruaha National Park - at over 15,000 square miles the largest - and people are just tolerated guests. A walking safari should be on everyone's list. It's a prey's eye view and it is not a little humbling.

Adventures is Customs Control - Africa Style

A propos of nothing in particular, I need to have a word with those consultants who advise on anti-corruption matters, specifically in customs control.

After a year in captivity in Bishkek, my "stuff" (including my golf clubs) arrived in Dar es Salaam via Istanbul, Frankfurt and Nairobi. Getting at it was another matter. Kenya Airlines never bothered to tell me when they were sending it down and they did so a week ago, thereby giving me the privilege of paying storage charges as the airport. No matter. Then, however, came the exciting half day at the cargo terminal of Nyerere International Airport.

First, don't ever try to do this alone. Select one of the facilitators at the main gate whom you will pay to do all the dirty work. That work means filing more forms than I care to count, photocopying identification, describing the goods and generally running around to get the shipment released. I had three hard working fellows on my side. They ran from Swissport offices to the payment windows and to me (for tax payments, signing documents, providing my passport etc.) and then, after two hours ambled over to the customs warehouse with me in tow to have the shipment "inspected".

I was quietly told that we needed to "take care" of the inspectors (five of them). My reaction was not shock (anti-corruption consultants take note) that bribery was going on here - I just wanted to know how much I needed to "take care" of them. As it turned out, my facilitators had negotiated a good deal. About $50 which I dutifully paid in Tanzanian Shillings. Suddenly, the inspectors dropped whatever other inspection they had not be paid to perform and tore into my shipment. It took ten minutes and, with a flash of papers and a wave, the next to the next final step was done.

It took another 45 minutes to pay for storage, grab a receipt and then run to another person to get the signed release and gate pass all before the entire office shut for the day. So, after all that and paying my facilitators, I was off.

Anti-corruption efforts only work if salaries are reasonable and punishment is certain, swift and decisive. Since none of that exists in Tanzania, at least at customs control, I was more interested in not waiting a week to collect my stuff. Hence, the automatic reaction to "taking care" of the officials. If the facilitation payment had not been made, very little would have transpired. Such is reality.

Back to work.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukka from Tanzania

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I won't be posting for a week. I'm off on safari to Ruaha National Park for three days, four nights in a tent camp where hopefully there will be lion, giraffe, hippo and wild dogs. A 2+ hour flight on a small plane to central Tanzania. Back on Christmas day. Incidentally, it is over 40c during the day here lately. Almost the same at night.

So - Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah to all.

Tanzanian Corruption & African Fragmentation

Well, this is not good. A considerable fall from 2008. Ranked now at 126 (102 in 2008), Tanzania is only marginally better than most of Africa. However, for the sake of perspective, Somalia is dead last at 180. I guess that's something. Botswana is the best at 37 - only two points below Puerto Rico and 5 below Israel. Maybe I need to work there.

This ranking was published by Transparency International just prior to the speech in Dar es Salaam on November 14 given by Mo Ibriham where "the British-Sudanese mobile phone billionaire said bad leadership, and the fragmentation of the continent into small and economically isolated countries meant that Africa could not survive as it was".

Mo Ibrihim's conclusion, by the way, applies to ethnic separatists in Europe and Asia. Their desire for an independent state - driven by a demonstrable inability to tolerate others based on differences of religion, race, hair style, shoe size or a false sense of superiority or other less palatable reasons on the part of the locally dominant species of ethnic culprits who are equally at fault - leads to economically unsustainable "nations" dependent on the charity of others. Their position of "separate but equal" is more aptly called "separate but poor and stupid".

Title Registration in Africa - a Bust?

Image via Wikipedia

As an agent-of-virtue (but without the giant white land rover) currently working in Africa, I would love to know if the land registration systems foisted on the continent by the West for the past 15 years work...anywhere? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

More on this later.

Work Break Over - Afghanistan Next Post

Image via Wikipedia

OK. I know the post below suggested an immediate start to a couple of entries on Afghanistan. I was completely sidetracked. By work. Hey - it happens.

So the next posts will begin shortly. I need to go sailing first off the coast here in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania to recover from reports and presentations to government officials.

The Alternate Economic Summit

The two-day meeting on Venezuela's Margarita Island this past weekend which mirrored the G-20 summit, addressed a wide range of concerns, from hunger in Africa to the economic crisis and demands for reming the United Nations. That's all well and good. However, having Hugo Chavez and Muammar el-Qaddafi take the leading roles is not.

One of them sees everything exclusively through the lens of anti-Americanism and self-promotion, while the other has frequently professed a desire to form a United States of Africa led by him - which is not about to happen for a variety of geo-political reasons. These are not the leaders of the South. Chavez has a proclivity for childish behavior coupled with clear tyrannical tendencies while Qadaffi is, well, himself.

Chavez has been struggling to grasp a leadership role outside of his small circle of supporters in South and Central America. However, his policy of nationalizing every major industry in sight is not widespread in the region, much less the world. Although he may be largely correct by blasting "...the empires of the North ...the empires of Europe, ...the U.S. empire..." for past economic and military colonialism, he is not the leader of any South/South reform movement.

The meeting also offered Qadaffi the chance to grandstand and rant - some of which was truly bizarre. Again. He exhibited his penchant for theater claiming (correctly) that "colonialism has stolen our riches." Unfortunately, colonialism of the type he refers ended some time ago and, in any event, I don't see him waxing sadly about Libyan oil and gas sales helped mostly through investment by those same former colonialists. He also wanted to reopen investigations regarding assassinations within the UN structure - JFK was mentioned.

His denunciation of the "politics of the club" used by some nations against others was not clearly translated though. Did he mean "club" as in weapon or "club" as in something he will never be allowed to join. If the first, then I suppose that the war in Iraq and the Russo/Georgian war fit the definition. So what?

Quadaffi then, clearly miffed, personalized the issue claiming to be humiliated by the fact that his delegation had to travel 20 hours to reach New York. Well, living in a tent is his privilege. Dropping it in places where he is not wanted, is not. I'm sure the Russians were amused when he pitched it in Red Square - but not for long. After complaining about the 20 hour commute, he called for more air routes between Southern Hemisphere nations - a policy which the beleaguered airline industry would likely not jump at immediately.

Both leaders demanded reform to the UN. OK, fair enough. But, Quadaffi went so far as to claim that the Security Council format is unsustainable because of the right of veto. Well, unfortunately the countries on the Security Council, which includes rotating membership from the General Assembly like Libya, prefer it that way. In any event, the entire concept of the Security Council was based on the major powers taking the permanent seats and not Zimbabwe or Burma. If anything, I can certainly agree the SC should be expanded to include as permanent members India, Brazil and Japan, for example. Beyond that, giving the Mugabe's of the world a chance to set international policy for the planet is laughable.

Others at this meeting, such as Argentine President Cristina Fernandez, were less flamboyant and far more pragmatic. She simply expressed hope that Africa will expand its potential to produce and export food and - more to the point - said her government was willing to provide technology and expertise to help.

Chavez, for his part, also promised investment in Africa. But, much like his promise to supply Iran with gasoline, this is more poor rhetoric than reality since his budget is in shambles due to his economic policies and low oil prices.

Given the recurrent attempts to hijack the under-privileged, under-served and under-represented southern part of the planet, perhaps it is time for the Non-Aligned Movement to reinvigorate itself. Formed during the Cold War, it seems to have lost its way after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After all, all of Africa, except Morocco, are members and so is Venezuela. The problem for Chavez and Quadaffi, but no one else, is that they do not lead the organization and will not likely have a say in its leadership for some time. But, it includes economic powerhouses - India and South East Asia - which could constructively lead an alternative non-political, economic program to the IMF (albeit on a smaller scale) if they really wanted to do so. But then it is politics, not economic development that motivates Chavez, so the Non-Aligned Movement would need to somehow work with or around his type.

Dar (as in Dar es Salaam)

Image by will likes tea and biscuits via Flickr

Well, finally arrived and up and running in Dar es Salaam (House of Peace). We are going to try and streamline the land tenure system in Tanzania which is under a huge strain despite having arguably the best land code in Africa.

I'm also looking forward to seeing the Serengeti (already tried the beer of the same name) Ngorongoro Crater, the Great Rift Valley, Zanzibar and Kilimanjaro, that is, in between work.

Off to Africa

Break's over.

I will be blogging exclusively from Africa (Ghana and Tanzania) beginning sometime in mid-September. Although I will try to keep my fingers in the FSU and Europe (and sometimes comment on the increasingly bizarre American political discourse melt-down now dominated by gun-toting right wingers), it is likely that I will begin to discuss the foreign assistance picture in Africa.

I have mentioned before that I believe that small scale, private sector assistance may be the better approach in Africa rather than the large scale - and not very cost-effective - USAID, EU and World Bank interventions. However, foreign aid assistance in Africa is not an either/or scenario, but rather one where the two approaches need much more coordination and collaboration. Hopefully, I'll be able to get a better handle on the two approaches during the next year.

In the meantime, blogging will be exceedingly light as I head to the US.

MEND and Nigerian Elections

Since I may be going to Nigeria in 2010 for a large project, I thought I should try to understand what exactly MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) and the government are up to with the recent amnesty plan, release of MEND leader Henry Okah from detention and the 60 day cease-fire that took effect on July 15.

MEND is a mixture of criminals and those wanting oil revenues to be shared more equitably in the Delta. My impression - and if anyone has some good information it would be welcome - is that the majority of MEND soldiers are simply the tools of some wealthy local criminal organizations more interested in extortion of funds from oil companies and keeping it for themselves. If that is truly the case, then why would the government provide a sweeping amnesty and why would a ceasefire only operate for 60 days?

If the government ruling party (the PDP) is making a deal, then it appears it is all related to securing its hold on the country, if not expanding it, during the election. If that is the case, will funds extracted from the oil companies end up in the PDP coffers? Since negotiations between MEND and the government will continue during the cease fire, I would think that the final deal between them will result in MEND helping, through intimidation and violence, the PDP to secure a massive election victory.

Anyone having deeper insight into Nigeria and MEND is welcome to comment.

Obama in Ghana

Since I am on my way to Ghana again I've been following the progress of President Obama to that West African country.

At the G-8, agricultural growth in Africa was one of the primary targets of the participants and resulted in a commitment to allocate $20 billion to Africa. Leaving aside whether these funds will ever make it through the bureaucratic systems in individual countries of the G-8, this type of aid needs to be re-directed. The G-8 appear to have recognized that the policies of aid supply to African agriculture have not produced the expected results over the past 20 years, and have actually harmed local farmers. It is about time that agricultural aid is recognizing that the focus should be on helping farmers help themselves rather than attempting to impose non-indigenous concepts. So far, so good.

Yet, as President Obama correctly emphasised that each country must, in effect, help themselves, nothing in agricultural aid will produce the results necessary without a significant reduction in farm subsidies in the US and, more importantly, Europe. Given European agricultural policy, such a reduction is politically impossible.

The other aspect of agricultural reform in Africa is the slow rate of land tenure security. Agricultural reform will not be successful unless farmers have clear tenure over their land. This is a major problem in Ghana, for example, as the growth of cities is exponential - and is not due to population increases but rather an exodus from the rural areas into cities. Local chiefs, the true power in Ghana, are in some areas literally giving away land to get people to stay. But the legal system established to secure tenure is inefficient, expensive and corrupt. Although huge sums have been and will be spent in Ghana by the World Bank and USAID to improve tenure security and improve agricultural policies and practices, they have so far been unsuccessful.

There are many reasons for the slow rate of success in land tenure security, including a highly bureaucratic system and central government/chief rivalry, but until significant movement toward secure tenure is achieved, agricultural growth will remain slow and intermittent.