Israel Takes the Low Road

The government of Israel has crossed a serious line in the operation against a Turkish flotilla heading toward Gaza. Fifteen people were killed by Israeli troops, including a Turkish member of parliament. Belgium Foreign Minister Steven Vanackere said the Israeli military attack on an aid flotilla headed for Gaza “looks like it was rather disproportionate”. Israel has been forced to advise all its nationals to leave Turkey.


The stupidity of Netanyahu and his cabinet is almost unbelievable if it did not fit a consistent pattern of alienating allies and attempting to provoke an attack on Iran.
One of the more profoundly predictably hawks, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission was simply an attempt to provoke Israel. Logic would dictate that if that was the case, and it certainly was, the last thing to do would be to take the bait. But, true to form, the Israels fed the view that they are not only unreasonable, but brutal by being exactly that.

If the Israeli government possessed even a modicum of grey matter at this point they would have avoided falling into this particular trap. However, in the black and white apartheid world of this Israeli government, logic did not prevail.

The Turkish NGO flotilla was designed to divide Israel and Western governments and to create a political crisis inside Israel. It has now, courtesy of the Netanyahu government, succeeded spectacularly. It is difficult to underestimate the damage that this has done to perceptions of Israel. Relations with the US and Europe, where relations are already strained, will deteriorate further.

Israel’s relationship with Turkey, a rare and extremely powerful Moslem ally which just happens to be a member of NATO, can now be consigned to the trash bin. The isolation of Israel is now going to get much, much worse and siding with Israel on this issue is not in the interests of any Western country. Israeli sabre rattling about Iran will no longer be viewed as simply an arguable position. Israel is in an extremely precarious position.
The best outcome now would be new elections and the removal of the hardliners from power in Israel.

The Netanyahu Speech

Given the reaction from the EU and President Obama, Netanyahu squirmed out of a difficult corner in which he had to concede something following the demands put on him recently. The concession was his abandonment - nuance aside - of his and his supporter's opposition to the two-state solution. When President Obama referred to this as a "good first step", I disagree with Josh Marshall where he feels that this is "doubly naive":

Most reactions in the US press are treating this as a major move by Netanyahu, endorsing the idea of a Palestinian state. But that seems doubly naive a) since that's been the premise of US policy for almost 20 years as well as a goal accepted by several Israeli governments and b) because Netanyahu's conditions amounted to deal breakers.

Yes, it has been the premise of US foreign policy for 20 years and yes again - Netanyahu's conditions are deal breakers. However, the position taken by the Netanyahu government is a major change for him. To that extent, the acceptance of a two-state solution is a good first step. I have serious doubts that the two state solution would work, but this is the policy that is being pushed, and pushed hard.

I think it is important to remember that President Obama has changed the game vis a vis Israel with his demand for an end to settlements - something Netanyahu has yet to address adequately. Netanyahu is in a terrible political position at home if he wants to retain power. He cannot ignore the US without blowing apart his coalition. If President Obama keeps the pressure on Netanyahu obtaining a stream of concessions (like dismantling of ad-hoc settlements illegal under Israeli law and by force if necessary)then there is a chance that a Netanyahu government will reach a deal with the Palestinians where a Labor government simply could not. This is a "Nixon goes to China" scenario and probably the only one that has a chance of working.

The Palestinian reaction was predictable and they have many points in their favor. The conditionalities put forward in the speach are clearly unacceptable. They strip away rights that define a "state". The Netanyahu government needs to walk those conditions back. Having said that, the Palestinians need to accept reality: 1) recognize Israel and 2) accept a compromise on repatriation. This is really not too much to ask. Without either, no deal and no peace.