The Daylight In-Between

Perhaps it is no secret that I consider the Netanyahu government to be the worst in Israel's history. But, recent events in Israel and Washington have moved the meter into a dangerous red zone - and for Israel.

The foreign policy gaffs of the current Israeli government, from an absurdly handled assassination in Dubai, insulting the Turkish ambassador, embarrassing the US Vice President during a visit to Israel, to continued refusal to even marginally stop seizing land for settlements, can only be described as self-destructive.

The meeting in Washington, by all accounts, did not go well. Netanyahu was basically treated to the same courtesy as the leader of Fiji. Possibly less. Did he miss the point? Does he care? Is his failure of judgement so great that he thinks that the stream of daylight now pouring through the gap will simply vanish?

His judgement, clearly from his first encounters with the Obama administration, is that with two wars and serious domestic issues, his government could withstand pressure from a preoccupied White House. Well, Mr Prime Minister, the preoccupation with domestic affairs has cleared one big hurdle with the passage of the insurance reform (incorrectly referred to as a health care bill)law. Iraq is still a problem, but hopefully will not be so very shortly. Afghanistan appears to be going well in the short term - at least enough to withdraw. Israeli government wiggle room is rapidly narrowing.

This Israeli government is sowing a toxic field in which the two state solution will be buried if for no other reason than by inserting religious zealots into potential Palestinian territory any chance of delimiting boundaries will be gone. The demographics in that situation are not favourable to Israel. To that extent, the current government is a security risk to Israel itself. Saying last week that Jews have been building in Jerusalem, its unrecognized capital, for 3,000 years invites some unfortunate historical recollections - none of which are good for Israel

In foreign policy, Israel is pushing away its strongest - and only - ally in the region. Turkey is waking up and Israel needs to read the history of the region. Turkey is the heavy-weight and the only nation able to face down a belligerent Iran, control Syria and balance an unstable Iraq. Refusing to listen to an economic, political and military power - indeed finding childish ways of irritating it - is not a viable long-term plan.

The Netanyahu government needs to take a deep breath and consider its actions to please its leadership and a conservative religious minority that cannot hope, historically, to win what it wants. Either that, or in the next election, the Netanyahu group must be removed from power. Israel's security depends on it.

The Netanyahu Speech

Given the reaction from the EU and President Obama, Netanyahu squirmed out of a difficult corner in which he had to concede something following the demands put on him recently. The concession was his abandonment - nuance aside - of his and his supporter's opposition to the two-state solution. When President Obama referred to this as a "good first step", I disagree with Josh Marshall where he feels that this is "doubly naive":

Most reactions in the US press are treating this as a major move by Netanyahu, endorsing the idea of a Palestinian state. But that seems doubly naive a) since that's been the premise of US policy for almost 20 years as well as a goal accepted by several Israeli governments and b) because Netanyahu's conditions amounted to deal breakers.

Yes, it has been the premise of US foreign policy for 20 years and yes again - Netanyahu's conditions are deal breakers. However, the position taken by the Netanyahu government is a major change for him. To that extent, the acceptance of a two-state solution is a good first step. I have serious doubts that the two state solution would work, but this is the policy that is being pushed, and pushed hard.

I think it is important to remember that President Obama has changed the game vis a vis Israel with his demand for an end to settlements - something Netanyahu has yet to address adequately. Netanyahu is in a terrible political position at home if he wants to retain power. He cannot ignore the US without blowing apart his coalition. If President Obama keeps the pressure on Netanyahu obtaining a stream of concessions (like dismantling of ad-hoc settlements illegal under Israeli law and by force if necessary)then there is a chance that a Netanyahu government will reach a deal with the Palestinians where a Labor government simply could not. This is a "Nixon goes to China" scenario and probably the only one that has a chance of working.

The Palestinian reaction was predictable and they have many points in their favor. The conditionalities put forward in the speach are clearly unacceptable. They strip away rights that define a "state". The Netanyahu government needs to walk those conditions back. Having said that, the Palestinians need to accept reality: 1) recognize Israel and 2) accept a compromise on repatriation. This is really not too much to ask. Without either, no deal and no peace.