Turkey Ups the Stakes

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What seemed to be half rhetoric and half serious has morphed into a threat that will have grave consequences arising from an inevitable "unfortunate incident" in the Eastern Med.  Turkey raised the stakes considerably today when PM Erdoğan  told al Jazeera that the Turkish navy will escort aid ships to Gaza.

On the same day President Gül - in Russia to attend the funeral ceremony for the Yaroslavl ice hockey team - stated that Israel was a burden to its allies and should negotiate an honourable peace.

These statements were quickly followed by the remarks of  Turkish Transportation Minister Binali Yıldırım that Israel’s raid last year on the aid flotilla was “no different” under international law than what Somali pirates are doing in the Gulf of Aden.

Prepare for the pundits to indulge in pleasant debates over the relative positions of Israel and Turkey, the type of intellectual massaging that produces no results.  I happen to think that Turkey is pushing the matter dangerously far although I have no sympathy for the current Israeli government or its apartheid policies.  A naval engagement would be tragic for the region and a lose - lose scenario for the participants. 

The Turkish navy is a significant entity - it can insert 8 highly capable and modernized missile and helicopter equipped Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates as well as almost triple the number of submarines than the Israelis can field.  If they toss in fast attack and missile boats they can overwhelm any Israeli attempt to block the aid convey unless Israel can establish air-superiority in which case would they actually attack Turkish surface ships. 

Will Israel risk war with Turkey?

Israel Takes the Low Road

The government of Israel has crossed a serious line in the operation against a Turkish flotilla heading toward Gaza. Fifteen people were killed by Israeli troops, including a Turkish member of parliament. Belgium Foreign Minister Steven Vanackere said the Israeli military attack on an aid flotilla headed for Gaza “looks like it was rather disproportionate”. Israel has been forced to advise all its nationals to leave Turkey.


The stupidity of Netanyahu and his cabinet is almost unbelievable if it did not fit a consistent pattern of alienating allies and attempting to provoke an attack on Iran.
One of the more profoundly predictably hawks, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission was simply an attempt to provoke Israel. Logic would dictate that if that was the case, and it certainly was, the last thing to do would be to take the bait. But, true to form, the Israels fed the view that they are not only unreasonable, but brutal by being exactly that.

If the Israeli government possessed even a modicum of grey matter at this point they would have avoided falling into this particular trap. However, in the black and white apartheid world of this Israeli government, logic did not prevail.

The Turkish NGO flotilla was designed to divide Israel and Western governments and to create a political crisis inside Israel. It has now, courtesy of the Netanyahu government, succeeded spectacularly. It is difficult to underestimate the damage that this has done to perceptions of Israel. Relations with the US and Europe, where relations are already strained, will deteriorate further.

Israel’s relationship with Turkey, a rare and extremely powerful Moslem ally which just happens to be a member of NATO, can now be consigned to the trash bin. The isolation of Israel is now going to get much, much worse and siding with Israel on this issue is not in the interests of any Western country. Israeli sabre rattling about Iran will no longer be viewed as simply an arguable position. Israel is in an extremely precarious position.
The best outcome now would be new elections and the removal of the hardliners from power in Israel.