Time for Change in Ukraine - Revolution redux?

I have not written about Ukraine in a long while, precisely because any semblance of democracy is being systematically dismantled by Victor Yanukovich and his mafia thugs.  But perhaps it is time for people in Ukraine to start thinking about an alternative to getting rid of the current government which is making sure it effectively rigs the next election.
This week, Yuriy Lutsenko, the Interior Minister under Yulia Tymoshenko, was sentenced to four years in jail and a three year ban from public office.  Since Yulia Tymoshenko is already there for seven years, Yanukovich and his oligarchs are effectively destroying any attempt by the opposition to contest the next election in 2015. This latest outrage has brought the usual "serious concern" response from the diplomats in the EU and the US.
 
This is not enough.  A little of the pictured spirit would do fine.

Let's get something straight.  Yanukovich is destroying the political freedom of Ukraine and doing so by blatantly charging opponents with his version of crimes.  Tymoshenko was condemned for negotiating a bad deal on gas with the Russians - something even Putin could not understand.  Lutsenko was convicted of giving an apartment to his attorney and other financial atrocities - like increasing his driver's pension.

So - when push comes to shove and Yanukovich (with a popularity of 15%)  is hopefully dragged out into the street by an angry mob - what should his punishment be (if he survives)?  For betraying the nascent democracy.  For handing Ukraine to the Kremlin. For putting table lamps in his new office that each cost $10,000 and fittings in his bathroom for 300,000 Euro while Ukraine's economy shrinks.  For jailing his opposition.

It is possible to kill a country in other ways than the methods now being undertaken by Assad of Syria.  The punishment , however, should be the same. And it should not wait until 2015.  Sometimes, talking is not enough.

Germany = EU - EU = Germany

Lest anyone feel uncomfortable with the notion that Germany is the EU and the EU is Germany, they need simply to  look at their Hooveristic economic policy it is imposing on  the EU and their attitude toward Ukraine at the recently conclude EU-Ukraine summit.
 

In the first case, the German government is simply saying that others – and they are looking at Spain, Italy and Greece in particular – must be like them, or else; hence the proposal to force the 27 members of the EU to amend their national constitutions to require balanced budgets.  To propose this in a recessionary environment sounds rather foolish especially when Germany has not proposed any growth policies, just crippling austerity which, ultimately won’t work to solve the multiple problems.  Coupled with the trade imbalances that exist in the EU – which Germany seems disinclined to address – it is hard to imagine any solution that would satisfy Germany which did not require that its policy choices are mirrored in Brussels.  If that’s the case, then the Eurozone is going to disintegrate and maybe even the EU.

The second German imposed decision arose at the EU-Ukraine summit.  Blithely ignoring the Polish position that inducements work better than sticks, Germany engineered the summit so that the EU did not even initial the Association Agreement with Ukraine killing, for the time being, closer economic cooperation and letting Yanukovich off the hook.  The reason for this rejection of even a small step forward was the German view that the Tymoshenko trial and imprisonment should bring the entire integration process to a grinding halt.  Astoundingly, Germany ignored Tymoshenko’s call to sign the Agreement preferring to appear as a defender of human rights while obscuring the inconvenient fact that 1) it is joined at the hip with Russia for energy and investment; 2) it gets to work on pipeline projects originating with Russia; and 3) it gets preferential pricing by Gazprom.

The result is that the EU, run by Germany, has managed to push an important country like Ukraine closer to the demonstrably undemocratic Russia and has also failed to come to grips with the Eurozone/EU crises.  Not a bad month’s work.

Tymoshenko Redux

Image via WikipediaThe political trial of Yulia Tymoshenko is over but an appeal could change everything.  By bringing her to trial for negotiating a generous (from Moscow’s point of view) gas deal while Eastern Europe was freezing in and of itself revealed the motive behind the persecution.  Seven other members of her party are already in jail.  It stincks of a political murder. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck – well….

The question, like everything in Ukraine, is the underlying reason for this mock trial run by a neophyte, 31 year old judge whose sentence was written for him by the Presidential Administration.  It has resurrected Tymoshenko politically, rather than the opposite.  It has put Yanukovich in the worst possible light as his government is condemned by the EU and the US.  Russia, which appeared equally surprised, may be play-acting as putting political opponents in jail is the norm for the Kremlin (journalists are merely murdered). And this may be key – Russia’s interest in the case as crocodile tears’ come to mind.

Does Yanukovich really care about deeper integration with Europe?  Personally, I doubt it.  Will he agree to join the economic union Russia has slapped together with Belarus and Kazakhstan?  Perhaps – but that is no substitute for the loss of a trade agreement with the EU, despite the Kremlin’s glee should it come to pass.

I prefer not to think that Yanukovich is both stupid and a thug.  The latter maybe, but not the former – at least until now.  On the other hand, collapse of trade negotiations with the EU gives him the excuse to run to Russia without being the instigator of the break with the EU.   But with Putin set to return to power, criticism from the big brother to the north is not a welcome sign for Yanukovich. 

As always, nothing is clear in Ukraine and conspiracy theories are a daily menu item.   But this prosecution and conviction appear to be a gross misjudgment if the purpose was to remove Yulia from the political arena.  It has made her a martyr and, since she has been through this before, even more dangerous for Yanukovich and his Party of the Regions. 

The stage is set for what could be a remarkable comeback.  First there is a sentence pronounced by a non-entity child judge under pressure by her political opponent Yanukovich for the “crime” of negotiating a bad deal with the Russians.  Putin remarked that the sentence is odd at best and the agreements were, in any event legal.  Then she is jailed during the appeal process because of, essentially, being rude to the court (not hard considering the court). This is followed by the loss of a major trade agreement with the EU and condemnation from every European leader and principal EU legal experts.   Yanukovich has given her what she needs. She lost to him by less than 3% of the vote in 2010.  He clearly did not want her, or her party, another grab at the ring.  But, tired old apparatchik bully from the East that he is, he could not let her just fade away.

Call it a gut feeling, but I believe the appeal is likely to go her way. If that happens (and even Yanukovich appears to think it may) she will come out of this unscathed and emboldened.  She is a ferocious, dangerous competitor and Yanukovich may soon regret his actions.

In Other News...

In what undoubtedly is a massive understatement, at Victory Day celebrations President Lukashenko of Belarus announced that “the West” was the prime enemy of Belarus.  Well, he’s probably right.  But perhaps he should look over his shoulder back to the east where his government is in negotiations with Moscow for an economic bailout. Yet again. It is probably too much for the last dictator in Europe to swallow that the Russian Federation is only a reluctant friend of his government and probably wishes he would just go away.

Luki has been in a snit ever since the EU basically slammed the doors closed around him, his family and supporters with very effective economic sanctions.  On April 25, he refused to travel to Ukraine for the 10^th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, which heavily impacted large chunks of Belarusian territory in and around the Pripyat and Gomel regions.  Why refuse? Well, as part of the EU boycott, the current EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso had asked President Yanukovich not to invite him to a conference in Kiev on the consequences of the disaster. Ukraine complied with the EU demand, hoping he would still show up to the Chernobyl anniversary, but Luki had taken umbrage.  It seems he is angry with Ukraine as well.

Considering he has vowed never to give up power, has jailed or exiled all opposition leaders and appears to be grooming his son for succession (remind you of Egypt?), perhaps he is losing sight of the fact that Moscow is not an ardent supporter, but treats him more as a useful clown; and, that Ukraine still has a saying that the reason Belarus was invented was to make Ukraine look good; and, that the EU simply wants him gone. When you’re a leader of a country with a bankrupt economy, surrounded by people who either don’t like you, actively seek your removal or, in the case of Russia, find you barely tolerable, perhaps an attitude improvement would be in order. 

Will it happen?  No. The former collective farm manager has dug in his heels and gone into hedghog mode.  Everyone is stuck with him until the youth in the country explodes or Medvedev’s tolerance for fools thins sufficiently to arrange a long vacation – or both.

USAID Closes Down a Contractor

A little scandal in the development world is always fun – except for the people who are the cause of the scandal.

AED, it was reported in yesterday’s Washington Post, has been suspended from future USAID contracts while the Office of the Inspector General completes an investigation of the non-profit.  The Post reports that according to a statement from USAID, the initial findings by the inspector general's office "reveal evidence of serious corporate misconduct, mismanagement, and a lack of internal controls, and raise serious concerns of corporate integrity.  AED holds 65 contracts with USAID worth over $640 million. The article also points out that USAID said it decided to suspend AED after the inspector general's investigation started in spring 2009 and found "substantiated evidence of misconduct by AED.”  AED had to return money following an investigation into its Pakistan project.  AED also has significant contracts in Afghanistan. 

How much of the misconduct is related to shorting consultants and pocketing the difference?  the article does not say, but if you are in development, you know what I mean.  Example. Hotels can be expensive but if the organization tells the consultant that he or she can only bill for $100 per night and USAID allows up to $250 per night – what happens to the difference if the firm charges USAID the full permitted rate?

Now, this sort of thing has happened before.  I was once brought in to resurrect an organization where one or two staff (out of 15) had colluded with outsiders to fraudulently obtain about $185,000 during the previous two years and the OIG had shut down operations.  In that case, however, my organization had discovered the fraud, reported it to USAID, paid the money back, took responsibility for the sloppy internal financial management but USAID panicked, called in the OIG resulting in a further investigation that held up operations for another 9 months after the situation had been resolved. Nevertheless, this sort of thing happens.

The venerable Harvard University sponsored Russia development program back in the 990s was also involved in some shady practices through some subtle maneuvering by its senior person in the field.  They were found out and black-balled with ramifications all the way to the top at Harvard.

However, my question is, if this investigation started in 2009, why was AED just awarded a USAID contract in Ukraine – the kick-off of which is supposed to be on Monday, 13 December?  How on earth does USAID justify that?  By saying it’s a signed contract?  So what?  On what planet do they live?

Oh. And the CEO of AED reportedly earns close to or over $800 thousand a year. This is rumor, of course, but if true,  nice work in the Not-For-Profit universe for someone who doesn’t have to spend time in the field in the garden spots of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Moscow's Abkhazia and South Ossetia Problem

Image via Wikipedia

Despite my normal misgivings about Ukraine’s changing foreign policy positions toward Russia and the West – none of which is surprising since Russia is next door and has all the leverage – their Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko has said that the Yanukovych administration has no plans to recognize an independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Citing the sanctity of borders as the reason, Kyiv has now joined Minsk in refusing, so far, to bow to Moscow’s need to have some other countries aside from the diplomatic coups of getting Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru (look it up) to recognize both break-away regions of Georgia.

How long Belarus will keep up its in-your-face attitude with Russia is an open question. They have welcomed former president Bakiyev of the Kyrgyz Republic, a less than popular decision in the Kremlin, and have also refused recognition of Georgia’s lost regions. The same is true for Kyiv, which may be realizing that its balancing act with Europe would be damaged by recognition. Moscow has a problem, which may account for its less aggressive tone lately as it tries to attract Western investment.

Hiatus - sort of...

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The postings will be rare in the next ten days as I have some rather overwhelming matters to deal with at work.  I'll try and post during the next week on a number of items including the change of direction in Ukraine, internal threat to Georgia, the election in the UK (I predict a Conservative majority - no hung Parliament - but David is no Winston) and the crises of the Eurozone.

Drezner, Realpolitik and Russia's Near Abroad

Needless to say, I don't agree with this.

In a post yesterday, I pointed out that press freedom in Ukraine is already suffering under the presidency of Victor Yanukovych.  The fact that he had said during his campaign that he would dismantle democracy in Ukraine and move closer to Russia was, apparently, ignored.  He is keeping his promise.

The point is not whether US relations with Ukraine and the Kyrgyz Republic has been adversely affected by their move for closer ties to the Russian Federation. It is what Moscow will demand in return.  One of those demands will be a less free society along the model developed by Russia.  Realpolitik is all well and good, but when it hangs out to dry those who support a more open and free society, there is a serious problem. 

There is a reason why Eastern Europe and the Baltics are concerned about US foreign policy regarding Russia. So implying that the effect is not important reveals a little too much of the cynic.

Revised Prediction

Way back on January 1 I listed my predictions for the next decade. The first was the following:

Prediction 1 - The last free and fair election in Ukraine will be in January if Yanukovich wins so he can fulfill his threat to end "democracy".

OK. As I stated in that post, predictions would be subject to change as the inevitable chaos theory took hold. I'm modifying the prediction in three ways:

1. This is the next to last free election since Yanukovich won the election, but the margin was insufficient to let him have free rein with his policies.

2. Yulia Tymoshenko will prove to be a bigger problem for him than anticipated because of point 1 and the fact that she is rumoured to have Putin's support. Additionally, he can't afford to dissolve the Rada and does not yet have enough MPs to form a majority.

3. In light of point 2, Moscow will have to rethink its frequently aggressive positions regarding some of its neighbors, particularly Ukraine, as Ukrainians in the west and the region around Kyiv will not take kindly to their continued interference, especially if it becomes more visible on the ground.

Tymoshenko Throws Down the Gauntlet

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...on her website, her televised speech that 1) refused to recognize the legitimacy of the Yanukovych presidency, 2) a call to form a coalition to oppose Yanukovych in the Rada and 3) was an amazing show, in and of itself.

As I've said previously, if she succeeds in forming a majority coalition Yanukovych is in deep trouble. Rumour has it that Putin actually favoured Yulia while Medvedev supported Yanukovych. That split, if true, is not good news for Victor.

The money line:

I also want to state that under no circumstances will I form a coalition with Yanukovych. I won’t be signing universals and memorandums with him because I do not recognize him as the president of Ukraine and do not accept his anti-Ukrainian and anti-European policies.

Enjoy the ride.

Tymoshenko Re-groups

Image via Wikipedia

So there is no deal. Yulia Tymoshenko is not resigning and is going to fight in the Rada. The maneuvering has already begun.

Victor Yanukovych has said that by the end of the week he will form a new parliamentary majority. This would allow him to dismiss the PM and anoint her successor. If he cannot form a majority then he is in trouble. Meanwhile, ByUT - Yulia's party - has called for an early session of the Rada on the 24th. Can Victor put together his majority by March 2 - the last day for forming a government - if Yulia starts organizing first? That will be hard, particularly if Yulia can bring together 226 members of the 450 person Rada under her wing - which would prevent a vote of no-confidence and her dismissal. If she cannot then ByUT will go into opposition. Neither alternative is going to be helpful to the new president. And he is showing signs of intense worry.

We are holding coalition talks with absolutely all parliamentary groups...

Yanukovych said this yesterday in an interview on channel 1+1.


On March 2 either Yulia will be dismissed or Yanukovich is going to have to consider a coalition with ByUT, a very, very unpalatable option for him. Or - he can order a snap parliamentary election.

Tymoshenko is going to be repairing all her burnt bridges to hold together her coalition and the government - where the real power rests. Holding on to that will mean control of the budget, economic policies, the corporate sector and even most of the security forces.

It's easy to see, therefore, why Yanukovych is pressing hard because if he loses this battle a PM, who despises him and his party and who never, ever forgets, will doom his presidency. Stay tuned.

Ukraine. What now?

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For those who said that a Yanukovich victory would produce stability - a more important commodity than, say, democracy for many - well, how's that going?

The OSCE has pronounced the election

free and fair

for the most part. They should stop there and not take up (as they have done) the additional position that Yulia Tymoshenko should shut up and go away so that the government can be formed and Ukraine can move forward. The OSCE should know better since this is likely the last election of its sort that will take place as Yanukovich is very likely to do what Putin did to Russia and Yukoshenko did to Belarus. And with Russian assistance. Just sayin...

One of the options that is open to Tymoshenko is refusing to resign as PM and forcing a snap parliamentary election. I can't see her doing that unless negotiations fail utterly. Ukrainian politics is typically strident on the outside and negotiable on the inside. All the rhetoric from both sides - admittedly a little more from BYUT - is the cover for the internal negotiations.

Today, the situation became a little more complex with Our Ukraine saying it does not support her resignation. That gives her more leverage for a deal as she continues to demand a recount because Yanukovich has to negotiate in such a case - he can't form a government under the current split between Regions/Communist Parties and BYUT/OU-PSD and their respective allies. So much for stability.

Tymoshenko, under these circumstances, probably won't call new elections because it is likely that Our Ukraine - not her ally but who loath Regions in general and Yanukovich in particular - would lose all their seats (although most would go to her party - but not all).

The noise - studiously reported as fact by the Western media - hides the underlying maneuvering. I give it another week to sort itself out. As Radar O'Reilly used to say -

wait for it

.

Close but no cigar in Ukraine

Quick note from the airport in Dar es Salaam.

I admit I was surprised by the closeness of the election victory for Yanukovich in Ukraine. Tymoshenko has a couple of options, none of them very good, including acceding to the winner's demand that she resign as PM. That.Won't.Happen. Ignore the rhetoric coming out of the two camps. Negotiations have begun and Yulia still holds a number of cards, including denying Yanukovich a working government.

She won't call for demonstrations. No one would come. But she does have a big chunk of the Rada still. That could prove decisive for her future and for the future of a Yanukovich government - if he can form one.

And Moscow is silent.

Ukrainian Elections Round 1

Image by Minirobot via Flickr

Despite yesterday's post about the end of Ukraine as an independent state for all practical purposes, the election remains interesting in that it truly appears to be an exercise in free voting without the rigging, abuse of administrative powers and other manipulative excesses that were so transparent in 2004. That, I guess, says something about the candidates at the top, as well as for Victor Yuschenko. Russia could take some lessons.

With Yanukovych heading for about a 35% win and Tymoshenko 10 points behind, the February run-off is by no means assured for Yanukovych. The trading and promises are about to begin and the 35% really represents the limit of his popularity. Perhaps he can strip off another 5% - 7% from other parties, like the Communist Party, but I believe he would be pushing the edge of the envelope if he does so. I can't go as far to say that he will lose to Yulia, but the possibility is there and I give her more than an even chance of negotiating better deals and getting the 50% +1.

Ukraine as Client State - Eggs in a Basket

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Today's election in Ukraine will not produce a clear winner and if Tymoshenko can hold on to a gap with Yanukovitch of no more than 15% then she has the chance to win on the February 7 runoff. After today, Yuschenko will be history and will forever regret the lost opportunities of 2004 and 2005.

He will regret his misplaced magnanimity in allowing Kuchma, Yanukovich and their allies to remain free. He will regret his weak responses to corruption and inefficiency. He will regret not forcefully reminding the EU and the United States what exactly was at stake. By Sunday night he will be retired.

Ukraine will have lost largely because of the apathy and disinterest in the youth and middle class over the past five years and not the failure of its politicians, which are legion. Nothing has struck me more than the "I don't care" attitude of the young and not so young. They will have much to regret as well during the next decade as any sort of democratic rule will be absorbed within the Russian standard of single party rule, a crushed media and subservience to Moscow as a client state.

None of the leading candidates can now forge an independent road for Ukraine. They are all tied to Russia and Russia has no intention of ever letting go again. It does not matter if Tymoshenko or Yanukovich is president. One will be and the other will be Prime Minister and Russia will have won completely. The eggs are indeed now in one basket.

This is an enormous strategic victory for Moscow as it really cannot wield world wide influence without Ukraine as an integral and controlled part. After February 7, it will be able to focus fully on its periphery, which is why the NATO commitment to the Baltics and Poland, is key to containing a resurgent Russian Union which has no free media, no fair elections and murders its political critics with impunity.

Predictions

And off we go.

In the 1st year of the next decade (yeah, yeah, I know - it really starts in 2011. Well, that's not the common usage, so live with it.) I'll indulge in a couple of predictions.

Prediction 1 - The last free and fair election in Ukraine will be in January if Yanukovich wins so he can fulfill his threat to end "democracy".

Prediction 2 - The new Russian empire will expand and consolidate its hold on Central Asia, Ukraine and the South Caucuses.

Prediction 3 - The US will increase its military footprint in the Baltics and Poland to counter the newly imperial Russia.

Prediction 4 - Turkey will flex its newly found military, economic and (most importantly) cultural muscle in the Middle East, most of the time against the wishes of the US and Israel.

Prediction 5 - Iran will continue to experience shocks to its social system with a concomitant reduction in its ability to interfere abroad until it reaches a tipping point - at which time they will do something stupid.

Prediction 6 - There will be a ground assault on Somali pirates.

Prediction 7 - The "surge" in Afghanistan will not achieve its intended goals, and the Afghan military will continue to be the phantom army of the 21st century.

Prediction 8 - Political relations between Germany and the US will continue their slide as Germany becomes more reliant on Russia for energy and trade.

Prediction 9 - The Israeli government will continue its illegal construction activities on Palestinian land despite international condemnation and new fighting will erupt between Hezbollah and Israel.

Prediction 10 - All the previous predictions will change as the inevitable chaos theory takes over.

Welcome to the next decade.

Let the Games Begin - The Race for President in Ukraine

Well, it has begun. As reported in Hurriyet the campaign to take over the weak position of President of Ukraine has achieved lift-off. Yulia Tymoschenko held a large rally and lambasted Yuschenko.

I can't say I'm particularly interested in who wins - it won't be Yuschenko - but it would be a tragedy for the election to go to Yanukovich. So I guess I'm for Yulia.

Ukraine and the US BMD System

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Apparently, the US and Ukraine really are talking about a BMD radar placement. That should annoy Russia, but it is really impractical and can only mean that the US is playing with the Kremlin's mind. Would upgrading and the use of an existing base in Crimea make sense? Sure. It faces southeast. Will Ukraine do it? Probably - except for that minor problem of the government changing to a more pro-Russian stance in January. But it is a hint of the Obama velvetglovebutstillinyourfaceRussia foreign policy. More on that later.

Dreams and Reality in Ukraine

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I normally don't write very much about Ukraine any longer because the political and economic environment is in shambles. But, in what may be the strangest combination of rose colored glasses and stark reality was the statement today by President Victor Yushchenko: "I will win the election, and if not, it is not a tragedy"

From the Orange Revolution hope on Maidan to single digit poll numbers, the squandered opportunities are legion. Meanwhile, Speaker of the Rada, Volodymir Lytvyn, said that there would be no opposition to Yulia Tymoshenko should she be elected, but there would be if Victor Yanakuvich won.

Almost a Greek tragedy.

Russia Legislates Unilateral Intervention

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The Russian Duma recently passed its first reading of a new amendment to its Law on Defense. Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with defense, but a great deal to do with military intervention in its sphere of influence. If enacted (and there is no doubt that the Duma, as ever, will pull out its rubber stamp) the amendment provides for using its military to "protect" Russian citizens outside its borders. History recalls that the Nazi regime in Germany used exactly that pretext for invasion.

Russia has a proclivity handing out passports to citizens of foreign countries. Guess what the reason was for the invasion of Georgia? Leaving aside the unwise provocations by the Georgian government, this is a dangerous new trend in Russian foreign policy and could easily be applied to Ukraine. Russia has handed out thousands of passports to its supporters in Crimea.

It would be unfortunate if Russia resorted to its military again, particularly against Ukraine which, despite a pathetic military, is no Georgia. Additionally, Russia's military is hardly an efficient fighting force having been embarrassed on the ground and in the air in the Georgia conflict (its navy performed very well).

The passage of this amendment would also be aimed at Estonia and the other Baltic States. It is clear Russia would only use its military against far weaker foes, so Russian "citizens" in Poland, Turkey, China and Finland probably should not hope for salvation from the motherland quite yet.