Update on Investigation for the Kyrgyz Republic

OK.  So, the OSCE refused my advice. Again. I'm astonished.

Here comes the investigation to determine why people killed each other in Osh.  Write your own conclusions.  It'll be as good as theirs.

International Investigation in Kyrgyzstan?

Image by dwrawlinson via Flickr

The bloody inter-ethnic fighting in southern Kyrgyzstan, centred for the most part in the city of Osh, remains the subject of conspiracy theorists and confusion. However, I don’t find these arguments that have been put forward for an international investigation compelling.


Was the violence due to third party instigation? Probably, considering that the Kyrgyz Republic has suffered little from ethnic violence since independence. Osh is a predominantly Uzbek city, but there is little to indicate that the majority of Kyrgyz bore any sort of animosity toward the majority. Only in 1990 has the area seen this type of violence which has more to do with culture than ethnicity. The third party may indeed be the Bakiyev family whose removal from power cost their clan a great deal – both in power and money. Bakiyev’s son, who ran a particularly venal and corrupt operation, lost control of his cash generating vehicles of water and hydro-power, not to mention his percentage interest in the casino at the Hyatt in Bishkek. Attempting to destabilize the interim government by provoking attacks against Uzbek’s in southern Kyrgyzstan would be one, albeit short-sighted and ineffective ways of reversing the results of the revolution. Ineffective because, should the violence had continued it almost surely would have provoked a Russian military intervention and Moscow was decidedly in favour of the interim government. Furthermore, Tashkent might have intervened as well, although Russian troops would have likely prevented that from ever taking place.


Would Russia have been so cynical as to incite civil war for the sole purpose of sending troops to assure control over Bishkek? This does not seem plausible for two reasons. The first is that they supported the ouster of Bakiyev in the first place. Not the least because he reneged on the deal to toss out the NATA (read US) airbase in Manas, but also because he was completely unreliable – for anyone. The second reason is that Russia would need an invitation to rescue the interim government, which never came. The last thing Russia needs is another Georgia either politically or militarily.


Finally, it is difficult to follow the reasoning behind the claim of Islamic extremists. There is no evidence of any type of Islamic militancy being behind the events. It is in the interests of Tashkent – who threw the militants out of the Ferghana valley – and Bishkek to share any information regarding Islamic militant activity. The fact that the Uzbek military made no move to intervene makes this scenario exceedingly unlikely.


Which brings me back to the original point. Why convene an international investigation? The threat to stability in the region is certainly a concern – but not to the UN which would take forever to come to a conclusion while simultaneously irritating everyone in Bishkek, Tashkent and Moscow and accomplish, as usual, nothing.

An investigation by the OSCE, currently chaired by Kazakhstan, might be of some use, but to what end? To assign blame? That would be an enormous waste of time and might raise the temperature rather than the opposite. A regional discussion would be useful, behind the scenes and one not aimed at identifying a culprit. In Central Asia issues such as this are not discussed publically. They are addressed in private and in Astana, Bishkek or Tashkent. Keep in mind that the Kazaks treat the Kyrgyz as their little brothers, with more than a little condescension. The Uzbeks are the largest and most powerful country in the region, a fact that causes concern in the Kremlin, and not inclined to be tolerant of bad publicity. The Kyrgyz are fiercely proud and already feel put upon by the US, Russia, China and the rest of their neighbours, except the Tajiks, who are in worse shape.

Drezner, Realpolitik and Russia's Near Abroad

Needless to say, I don't agree with this.

In a post yesterday, I pointed out that press freedom in Ukraine is already suffering under the presidency of Victor Yanukovych.  The fact that he had said during his campaign that he would dismantle democracy in Ukraine and move closer to Russia was, apparently, ignored.  He is keeping his promise.

The point is not whether US relations with Ukraine and the Kyrgyz Republic has been adversely affected by their move for closer ties to the Russian Federation. It is what Moscow will demand in return.  One of those demands will be a less free society along the model developed by Russia.  Realpolitik is all well and good, but when it hangs out to dry those who support a more open and free society, there is a serious problem. 

There is a reason why Eastern Europe and the Baltics are concerned about US foreign policy regarding Russia. So implying that the effect is not important reveals a little too much of the cynic.

End Game in the Kyrgyz Republic

Image via Wikipedia

Almost over.  Bakiyev flew to Khazakhstan on Thursday after a disasterous attempt to rally supporters in Osh erupted in gunfire.  Reportedly, he spoke with PM Putin just prior to his flight out on a military aircraft.  What is not reported is whose aircraft it was, where it flew nor the content of the conversation with Putin. I would suspect he flew to the golden towers of Astana (shown in the photo). 

It is highly unlikely that Astana would have agreed to the flight without checking with Moscow. It is also very likely that Moscow has told the interim government in Bishkek to leave Bakiyev's family alone.  If, as they probably will, agree not to arrest and prosecute members of the family - his son, Maxim, in particular - they will need to institute and enforce some serious reforms in the country if they are not to be seen as "more of the same".

Civil War in the Kyrgyz Republic

I am at a loss why Russian President Medvedev suggested that civil war was near in the Kyrgyz Republic (the official name by the way - I'm looking at you CNN - oh, and while am at it
CNN Ukraine is simply Ukraine - not "the" Ukraine unless you like "the" France or "the" Italy - it's not a province of Russia any longer!).  I digress.

In any event, the only reason Medvedev could possibly have thought to bring this up was to increase the possibility of an offer to send Russian peacekeepers. Just like the TransDniester and South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

They.Never.Leave.

Civil war is nearly impossible.  The stronghold of the ex-president and his first-son is in the south -specifically in Jalal' abad with a population of 12 and several chickens.  (OK, it's really around 70,000 people but I stand by my chicken count - I saw them). Osh is Uzbek and Bakiyev will have little support there. The north and south a seperated by a small range of mountains exceeding 4000 meters. It becomes hard to get at each others' throats with that type of barrier.  In the middle lies Naryn - the Kyrgyz heartland. They are not about to side with Bakiyev et al.

Medvedev is being the set-up man for intervention. Again.  I suggest that he look to his own backyard in the North Caucuses before expanding military adventures on questionable efforts. He's in Washington now. Perhaps he has heard of Iraq and Afghanistan? He can talk about adventures.