Good Night Mayor Luzhkov

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President Medvedev dropped the other shoe and summarily dismissed Mayor Luzhkov. The face - either loved or despised - of Moscow for almost two decades is gone. A fake populist, sometimes corrupt, always in-your-face politician who nevertheless always kept his word if you kept yours, is going to be a hard act to follow.  But Moscow and Russia have grown up. Luzhkov did not grow with it.

Yuri Luzhkov was a national figure and transformed the city - some say for the worse.  There is no doubt that he changed its face from a somewhat dreary, grey and graceless city that I remember from 1969 and on my next visit n 1989 to a center of fashion, art, night-clubs and expensive shops and five star hotels it is today.  But it did lose a certain poetry.  Old, quiet neighborhoods such as the one I lived in for three years in 1994 were transformed as high-rises with apartments selling for  $3,000 a meter or more concealed the sky while parks vanished as land became more valued than quality of life.  I tend to cringe now if I need to travel there, dreading the truly astonishing traffic jams that make New York City look vehicle free.

But, he put Moscow on the map.

The Fighting Mayor of Moscow

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On a light note, your blogger has been reading the gossip pages of the Russian print media (no access to state controlled TV) and following the Luzhkov Chronicles.

This guy has been around for as long as I can remember. I actually was there when his predecessor – a very forgettable fellow and why his name escapes me – was in power. Luzhkov has been the powerful, contentious, outspoken mayor of Moscow for almost two decades. Now he seems to be on the way out.

The Kremlin wants him to go. He says he intends to stay until his term expires in mid-2011. The Kremlin reminded him that he is appointed and can be removed by the Kremlin. Others have noted that, indeed, the Kremlin can fire him. But, unfortunately they need a reason. Fire him without a reason and the political campaign could be adversely affected as he is not short on popularity.

Putin is his friend. Medvedev is not. Putin and Medvedev are partners and Luzhkov has been doing his very verbal best to divide the two. After taking a not-so-subtle shot at the Kremlin after he was told to resign and refused, Luzhkov announced last week that he was heading on vacation to Austria.

Except his wife took over. Yelena Baturina is anything but subtle. She tends to name names. She is Russia's richest woman, making her fortune as the head of a construction equipment manufacturer. She has always stayed out of the public eye. Until now.

Her husband's fight with the Kremlin and the media onslaught unleashed on him by every major national broadcaster has brought her out of the closet. Using slightly less vague and diplomatic language and naming names, Baturina accused the Kremlin of orchestrating the media's smear campaign against her husband. This is a blinding grasp of the obvious, but nevertheless something that is usually uttered in subdued locations over tea. She said that there are people "who fear that in the 2012 presidential campaign, Luzhkov will back Prime Minister Vladimir Putin over President Dmitry Medvedev."

And who said politics in Russia was predictable?

Bakiyev Goes West

The former leader of the Kyrgyz Republic has popped up in Belarus.  Clearly he was not welcome in Moscow, but is in Minsk.  The choice is odd and is perhaps not the final destination since Belarus has an extradition treaty with Kyrgyzstan. The interim government has already issued a formal demand for his return so Minsk is in a quandry.  Why they invited him is a mystery.

End Game in the Kyrgyz Republic

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Almost over.  Bakiyev flew to Khazakhstan on Thursday after a disasterous attempt to rally supporters in Osh erupted in gunfire.  Reportedly, he spoke with PM Putin just prior to his flight out on a military aircraft.  What is not reported is whose aircraft it was, where it flew nor the content of the conversation with Putin. I would suspect he flew to the golden towers of Astana (shown in the photo). 

It is highly unlikely that Astana would have agreed to the flight without checking with Moscow. It is also very likely that Moscow has told the interim government in Bishkek to leave Bakiyev's family alone.  If, as they probably will, agree not to arrest and prosecute members of the family - his son, Maxim, in particular - they will need to institute and enforce some serious reforms in the country if they are not to be seen as "more of the same".

Moscow Metro Murders

The appalling terrorist attacks in Moscow yesterday morning need to be loudly condemned. However, if indeed these murders were committed by Chechen insurgents, as appears very likely, the Russian response should not be more violence against Chechnya of which there has been more than enough since 1994. A different approach is needed to isolate the extremists.

In 1995 while living in Moscow, a close friend, extremely Westernized and who eventually went on to be a reporter for a major Western newspaper, admitted that her feelings about Chechnya were to put fence around it and its people and let it suffocate. That feeling is likely to intensify now. It would be a mistake to translate such an emotion, arising from the first Chechen War launched by Yeltsin, into policy.

Perhaps a first step would be for Moscow - and especially PM Putin - to take another look at the criminal, murdering thug that was put in charge in Grozny. Ramzan Kadyrov is, quite simply, a lunatic who has showered his own people with terror, advocated a second Russian invasion of Georgia, a new invasion of Ukraine and otherwise calls on Russia to "liquidate" the threats that Ukraine and Georgia represent to Russia.

Prime Minister Putin put him in charge. A change of leadership in Chechnya might be a place to start to isolate the murderers on the metro and eventually destroy their ability to function. It's not as if Putin doesn't call the shots.

Iran, Israel, Russia, US

I am still curious as to what was discussed - if that's the right word - during the less than secret meeting in Moscow between Medvedev and Netenyahu. Iranian negotiating tactics (delay, hesitate and produce long but meaningless reports) are normally very successful. Indeed, the latest round of proposed talks regarding its nuclear program has been delayed beyond the meeting of the UN General Assembly. They were supposed to start prior to the session.

Now that Iran says they will talk about anything except their nuclear program, it seems to me that the meeting will need to take place just for the sake of appearances. What happens next?

Russia probably believes Washington will do nothing. Washington will work with Europe to impose sanctions (gasoline is the most likely target). Russia and China will not go along. Israel, under Netenyahu is not even proximately involved in negotiations regarding sanctions. This diplomatic gamesmanship among the parties could blow up in all our faces if Netenyahu decides that Israel needs to attack Iran. If that happens, oil prices will shoot up to Pluto - and that would be the least of the ramifications.

This could turn out to be a mess mostly because all the parties may be misreading the motives and possible actions of each other.

Meeting in Moscow

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The meetings being held as I write in Moscow will decide how the US and Russia will deal with each other for rest of 2009 and perhaps beyond. The US wants Russia's help with Afghanistan, Iran and Palestine. Russia wants the US to draw back from Eastern Europe, Georgia and Central Asia. Both Russia and the US want to sign a successor treaty to START.

Russia has stated that the US can transport non-lethal and lethal materials over and perhaps on its territory for the Afghan effort. This will not come without a quid pro quo. The question is - what will the US give up? The BMD's in Poland will likely be postponed. The US will also likely agree to draw back a little on efforts to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. In the former, there is simply no strong desire and in the latter, the current government behaves too eratically to be considered an ally.

The BMD placement is really not a big deal since they are of questionable utility and Poland has just received significant military hardware from the US (50 F16) and will soon deploy Patriot missles as well. This will allow Poland to feel a little more secure and will satisfy Poland to the extent that it needs to at the moment. What else can the US give up? Very little, I would imagine, without damaging its credibility in Eastern Europe.

Ultimately, aside from a reduction in nuclear arsenals which both countries want, the geopolitical differences are not that flexible. I don't expect much to come out of the meeting other than a new START treaty, postponement of the BMDs and a temporary lull in the expansion of NATO.

A Week Hiaitus

I'm back after a quiet week and celebrating the 4th at Spartak Stadium in Kyiv. Today President Obama is in Moscow. This is going to be interesting.

Moscow

OK. I've been here for a couple of days involved in government meetings and World Bank project reviews. Busy - little time for blogging.

But, on Russia Today yesterday (a morning news program) there was a brief announcement concerning oil. If anyone thought Russia was solely interested in saving Abkhazia from the depredations of Tbilisi, the news that Rosneft, the Russian state-owned energy company, would soon begin drilling operations in the Black Sea off the coast of Abkhazia should now be disabused of that thought.

The Russian government has been intensifying its efforts to secure oil and gas resources. Putin and Medvedev have been on the move(Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Mongolia for example and meetings with Turkey in Russia); many of the visits were focused on energy and other natural resources. This comes as no surprise as Europe attempts to unchain itself, and therefore its policies, from dependence on Russian energy. Russia is doing everything possible to disrupt these efforts, such as reinforcing its contracts in Central Asia and interfering with Nabucco. The dance is interesting but will likely take a backstage role as the Russian economy continues to unravel.

The Ministry of Economy down the street from my office here announced a 10.5% economic drop year-to-year April while Putin announced simultaneously that industrial production had fallen by 16.9 percent. Unemployment is over 8% and rising. What this shrinkage means for Russia's continued aggressive foreign policy moves remains to be seen.

Update: Just today, the leading business newspaper and magazine in Russia Kommersant Daily (subscription required)announced that Gazprom is seeking a role in a pipeline project that would carry Iranian natural gas to Pakistan. Russia looks favorably upon the project because it would help to reduce competition from Iran in providing gas to European energy markets.