Bakiyev Goes West

The former leader of the Kyrgyz Republic has popped up in Belarus.  Clearly he was not welcome in Moscow, but is in Minsk.  The choice is odd and is perhaps not the final destination since Belarus has an extradition treaty with Kyrgyzstan. The interim government has already issued a formal demand for his return so Minsk is in a quandry.  Why they invited him is a mystery.

The Roza Revolution?

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Reports from some colleagues in Bishkek indicate that the city is almost back to normal although of the 40 Narodny stores (similar to US 7-11 stores but bigger) 26 were looted and burned.  This is what happened in 2005.  On the other hand, one explanation could be that, unlike the Orange Revolution in Kyiv, there was no food for the demonstrators in Bishkek - hence, hit the food stores.  A "mine" or small bomb exploded outside the Metro Pub - otherwise know as the American Pub - a huge hang-out for expats and Kyrgyz alike - and unreported by the media were the police who were killed during the riots.

A herd of potential leaders have emerged - approximately 14 - so the next step will be reformation of the constitution and elections.  Former president Bakiyev refuses to resign but remains in the south which is his power base.  It is unlikely that he will have very much support, however, given the manner in which PM Putin has embraced the interim government.

There has been no official comment from neighboring Khazakhstan which is allergic to this type of change, nor from Dushanbe which may face similar problems in the future.  China will likely closely monitor the situation as Uighers and other Chinese nationals have been attacked in central and eastern Kyrgyzstan.  This is not new, of course, as the Chinese are viewed with intense suspicion by the Kyrgyz.

According to the BBC, Bakiyev addressed his supporters in the southern town of Teyit and implied that he and his supporters would resist an attempt to arrest him.

As for names, Troy Etulain on twitter said: We could call this latest revolution the “Roza Revolution”, to stay (somewhat) consistent with previous FSU “revolutions”.

Confusion in the Kyrgyz Republic

Following up on the events in the Kyrgyz Republic, the cause of the successful revolt does appear to be grounded solidly on the intensity of anger, building up over the past three years, over the dashed hopes for reform ushered in by the Tulip Revolution. The latter revolt elevated the now ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to a leadership role that quickly degenerated into a kleptocracy of extraordinary magnitude spearheaded by his son, Maxim.


Maxim sold off the resources of the country and pocketed the funds for himself and his family. He sold water to Uzbekistan far beyond the Kyrgyz Republic's resources and electricity to, of all places, the Republic of Kazakhstan. The water sold could have been used to generate electricity rather than endure the twice daily power shedding that occurred in 2006 leaving even the capital, Bishkek, in the dark. He then raised electric rates by 170% as well as cell phone rates and pocketed that as well. In 2006 I witnessed his thugs cut down the surrounding two meter metal fence from the grounds on the Hyatt in retaliation for the hotel's refusal to increase his percentage ownership of the casino. The purported reason? So the public could visit the monument in the park without the need to pass security. The man needed to be removed - one way or another.

Bakiyev did nothing to stop the deterioration of the economy while indulging in conspicuous consumption and, on days he was bored, murdering journalists. Little has been done to find and punish the murderers of Alisher Saipov (killed in 2007), Almazbek Tashiev (2009) and Gennady Pavlyuk (also 2009). More than 60 cases of assaults on journalists have been reported since Bakiyev took control in 2005.

I am also sure that Moscow was not pleased after bribing him with a $2 billion loan channeled through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to close Manas airbase to NATO and then watching as the US outbid the bribe and he broke his promise to close the base and then suggested that he would give the US a second base.

This brings up the issue as to whether the revolt that toppled the government was aided by Russia. President Putin immediately called interim the president and promising support and aid. Meanwhile, in the US, the State Department in another example of saying too much when asked to comment implied that it was working with Bakiyev. Philip Crowley said,

We work with that sitting government. We have — as we’ve outlined in various reports, including the Human Rights Report — we have concerns about issues, intimidation by the government, corruption within the government…but that said, there is a sitting government. We work closely with that government. We are allied with that government in terms of its support for international operations in Afghanistan.

How about, "We urge calm and restraint on all sides to avoid further bloodshed". Period. Rumours are flying about in Bishkek, according to my former colleagues that Maxim has fled to the US. Not.Very.Helpful. Russia is viewed as helpful. The United States as a supporter of a corrupt regime.

Finally, domestic politics has played a key role. The country is divided between northern and southern clans. In 2005 as a result of the Tulip revolution, Bakiyev, a representative of the southern clans, came to power as president. That did not entirely please the northern clans, a feeling that was made worse as he failed to keep his promises including to avoid assigning his own clan to governmental positions and avoid press censorship . He did the opposite.

Apparently, the northern clans gave him an ultimatum about three weeks ago to remove his brothers and son from their positions. In response, he had opposition leaders arrested which lit the fuse of the revolution in Talas which then spread across the country to Bishkek. It was in Talas that the head of the interior ministry was found shot as well.

So, now Bakiyev has escaped south and has no support in the more powerful north. Buh bye Bishkek.

Now both the US and China are assessing the change. The US from a military standpoint and China from security and balance of power issues. Russia is the clear winner whether or not it supported or had any hand whatsoever in the revolution and continues its progress to rein in the former Soviet republics. Orange, Rose and Tulip revolutions have all been rolled back and perception always trumps the truth.

What will the new regime bring? Probably little change, although one can hope. Omurbek Tekebaev and Temir Sariev, the two most visible opposition figures, are the same people who were in power under both Akayev and Bakiyev. Both were reelected to parliament in 2005 in a fraudulent election that sparked the Tulip Revolution. Both retained their seats under Bakiyev, and Tekebaev served briefly as speaker in Parliament. In the 10 years they have been in politics, nothing changed and indeed became worse. It is unlikely they can or will change anything now.

The Kyrgyz Republic - What Color Revolution

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The events in the Kyrgyz Republic this week have toppled the corrupt regime which toppled the former corrupt regime during the Tulip Revolution. Note to CNN – it is not alleged corruption. The corruption was real, systemic and widespread in all levels of the government. Calling it alleged merely gives cover to those who spawned the corruption.


I was completely surprised by the intensity of the demonstrations which turned very ugly, very quickly and haven’t collected all the information about it from some of my Kyrgyz friends who I know from my work there between 2006 and the end of 2008. When I get it, I’ll write about their impressions as to what finally triggered the overthrow of the regime, hopefully tomorrow.

A few questions need to be answered as well. What will be the effect on both Russia and the United States foreign policies in Kyrgyzstan and the region in general? How will the overthrow of the Kyrgyz government affect the unstable situation in its neighbour, Tajikistan? Will the new government actually be revolutionary and toss out the equally corrupt Parliament? What will be the colour or flower for this revolution?

More to come.

Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious

According to Agence France-Presse (no link) opposition candidates in the Kyrgyz Republic's presidential election being held today claimed massive fraud.

Bakiyev will win with a percentage approaching 90%, if not higher.

Russian Reaction to Manas

Well, that didn't take long.

According to a report in Kommersant today Russia characterized the new lease agreement with the US for use of the Manas airbase a “dirty trick” and the Russians intend to make a “corresponding response”. The new agreement allows the base to be used as a “transit center” for nonmilitary supplies. Moscow, not being entirely stupid, said through their Ministry of Foreign Affairs that calling the base a transit center is just “a cosmetic alteration”, adding that “The real nature of the U.S. military presence in Central Asia has not changed, which goes against the interests of Russia and our agreements with the Kyrgyz government.”

Given the nature of the the Kyrgyz leadership and its parliament, why Moscow would have believed them in the first place is a mystery. I expect the "corresponding response" will be a significant reduction in the funds promised by Russia to the Kyrgyz Republic for throwing out the US.

It should be pointed out, I suppose, that base priviliges had also been cancelled for 10 other NATO countries supporting the Afghan war. Have they been allowed back in?

Manas

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Stays open, according to a report on the BBC.

The government of the Kyrgyz Republic is arguably the most corrupt in Central Asia - although the Tajiks give them a run for the money. The details of the new deal for using Manas airbase have not been released; but, I would bet the ranch that the lease payments will be considerably increased. That would make up for President Bakiyev's losses during the current world-wide recession. His son would, of course, get half the rent with which to play. The government will be happy. Moscow will have a different reaction.

UPDATE: The new rent is $60 million. Three times the original amount. Your welcome, Mr Bakiyev - don't forget your Swiss banker.