Bakiyev Goes West

The former leader of the Kyrgyz Republic has popped up in Belarus.  Clearly he was not welcome in Moscow, but is in Minsk.  The choice is odd and is perhaps not the final destination since Belarus has an extradition treaty with Kyrgyzstan. The interim government has already issued a formal demand for his return so Minsk is in a quandry.  Why they invited him is a mystery.

End Game in the Kyrgyz Republic

Image via Wikipedia

Almost over.  Bakiyev flew to Khazakhstan on Thursday after a disasterous attempt to rally supporters in Osh erupted in gunfire.  Reportedly, he spoke with PM Putin just prior to his flight out on a military aircraft.  What is not reported is whose aircraft it was, where it flew nor the content of the conversation with Putin. I would suspect he flew to the golden towers of Astana (shown in the photo). 

It is highly unlikely that Astana would have agreed to the flight without checking with Moscow. It is also very likely that Moscow has told the interim government in Bishkek to leave Bakiyev's family alone.  If, as they probably will, agree not to arrest and prosecute members of the family - his son, Maxim, in particular - they will need to institute and enforce some serious reforms in the country if they are not to be seen as "more of the same".

The Roza Revolution?

Image via Wikipedia

Reports from some colleagues in Bishkek indicate that the city is almost back to normal although of the 40 Narodny stores (similar to US 7-11 stores but bigger) 26 were looted and burned.  This is what happened in 2005.  On the other hand, one explanation could be that, unlike the Orange Revolution in Kyiv, there was no food for the demonstrators in Bishkek - hence, hit the food stores.  A "mine" or small bomb exploded outside the Metro Pub - otherwise know as the American Pub - a huge hang-out for expats and Kyrgyz alike - and unreported by the media were the police who were killed during the riots.

A herd of potential leaders have emerged - approximately 14 - so the next step will be reformation of the constitution and elections.  Former president Bakiyev refuses to resign but remains in the south which is his power base.  It is unlikely that he will have very much support, however, given the manner in which PM Putin has embraced the interim government.

There has been no official comment from neighboring Khazakhstan which is allergic to this type of change, nor from Dushanbe which may face similar problems in the future.  China will likely closely monitor the situation as Uighers and other Chinese nationals have been attacked in central and eastern Kyrgyzstan.  This is not new, of course, as the Chinese are viewed with intense suspicion by the Kyrgyz.

According to the BBC, Bakiyev addressed his supporters in the southern town of Teyit and implied that he and his supporters would resist an attempt to arrest him.

As for names, Troy Etulain on twitter said: We could call this latest revolution the “Roza Revolution”, to stay (somewhat) consistent with previous FSU “revolutions”.