Wheels Down in Tajikistan

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Out of Qatar, the Middle East and into Central Asia - Tajikistan to be precise. A Persian people going back to the Samanids and their empire - a monument (see picture) to the Samanids adorns a central square. 

Dushanbe has changed since my last visit here back in 2008, at least physically.  Less dust, new buildings. The Tien Shen range of mountains is still on the horizon.  There are still police every 20 meters or so on the main street, Rudaki, arbitrarily stopping cars and extorting bribes from drivers on fabricated violations. For Independence Day (September 9) the government raised the largest flag pole in the world for a mere $35 million while sidewalks are still pitted and broken in many places. Some things never change.

More soon from Dushanbe and beyond...

Busy, busy, busy

Some have noted to me by email that my last, short post was almost a month ago.  That's the fault of my day job. With a few days free during Eid I hope to post a little more.  I am also leaving the sandbox as it is called in the US and will be going back to my old area of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia.  By September 12 I will be landing in Dushanbe, having said farewell to Qatar. I last worked in Tajikistan in 2008 - what seems like a century ago. 

The Russian Are Coming - Again

Back in August, 25 Islamic militants escaped from a high security prison in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan.  The government immediately initiated a hunt.  It's not going well.  On September 19 in the northeastern valley of Rasht, militants ambushed a Tajik patrol and killed at least 25 soldiers.  Nothing like this has been seen in a decade.

There are a whole variety of different militant groups operating in Tajikistan whose terrain is difficult, to say the least. Similar groups exits in Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. The sudden increase in activity coupled with the upcoming withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan just to the south may spell trouble for the entire region.

Which is why the Russians are coming.  They have never rally left and have bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, most notably along the Uzbek border who the Russians fear may have designs on becoming the regional power since it has the largest population and a ruthless military. But all the countries have an interest in making sure the conflicts of the 1990s don't return, especially in the form of Islamic militancy. So the Russian just sent around 25,000 troops to Tajikistan.  More will be coming and China will certainly take an interest as some of the militant groups spill over into their territory. 

As the US pulls back and the latest iteration of The Great Game dials down, these Central Asian republics are in for a ride.  It will be left to the Russians.

The Kyrgyz Republic - What Color Revolution

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The events in the Kyrgyz Republic this week have toppled the corrupt regime which toppled the former corrupt regime during the Tulip Revolution. Note to CNN – it is not alleged corruption. The corruption was real, systemic and widespread in all levels of the government. Calling it alleged merely gives cover to those who spawned the corruption.


I was completely surprised by the intensity of the demonstrations which turned very ugly, very quickly and haven’t collected all the information about it from some of my Kyrgyz friends who I know from my work there between 2006 and the end of 2008. When I get it, I’ll write about their impressions as to what finally triggered the overthrow of the regime, hopefully tomorrow.

A few questions need to be answered as well. What will be the effect on both Russia and the United States foreign policies in Kyrgyzstan and the region in general? How will the overthrow of the Kyrgyz government affect the unstable situation in its neighbour, Tajikistan? Will the new government actually be revolutionary and toss out the equally corrupt Parliament? What will be the colour or flower for this revolution?

More to come.

Georgia, AES and Energy Development Programs

The BBC has an interesting TV program called Storyville which covers unusual or rare reports on issues that otherwise are not covered in great detail. Today I happened to tune in to the report on electricity supply in Georgia.

In 1999 the American firm AES won the tender to purchase the electrical distribution system in Georgia. This is not the same as buying the generation capacity which is owned separately and AES needs to pay for the power supplied to it. Thus, the payments by users, billed by AES, is critical to a viable and profitable operation. There is the rub. It is demonstrably not profitable and therefore not sustainable.

Development agencies such as USAID and EU programs have always emphasised the privatization of electrical distribution systems despite the fact that there has been no evidence that privatization, even through open bidding by seemingly knowledgeable private sector companies, would result in sustainable commercial companies. Tbilisi residents never had the money to pay the bills - especially the pensioners. With incomes around $30 - $50 per month the objective was to avoid the metering system (provided free, thank you very much) which could take as much as 50% of that income. AES would cut the power for non-payers, leaving many without light or television. AES, of course, needed to pay for the electricity it received, but considering the black hole of corruption in Georgia, the money it paid to those in charge of supply would disappear into the pockets of the energy ministry or other highly placed officials.

This is only one example. Armenia attempted the same with its distribution system - it did not work. The private sector built generation and distribution system in southern Tajikistan in Khorog fulfills the definition of bankrupt. In Khorog, the director of the facility was physically threatened when power was cut to homes. (Since I dealt with the firm which was owned by my employer at the time, it will go nameless).

There is the persistent idea that privatization of energy production, distribution or both in poverty rich nations like Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan, is the optimum solution. It has not worked and cutting off power to the poor is not an option. A different way forward for energy reform in poor countries needs to be developed. The backlash by ordinary people in Georgia against the US (AES is based in the US)because they live in darkness and can't afford the cost, does not benefit US foreign policy goals. Conversion of formally state run companies providing "free" public services, such as electricity, into for-profit firms needs a re-assessment.

Denying essential services to those who cannot afford to pay is not an option.