France and Freedom of Speach

I’ve been gone for almost a month since my day job is in an end-year crunch to complete a raft of legislation here in Tajikistan.   As the holiday period approaches though, the rush by the government has abated.

The French lower house of parliament recently voted to make it a crime to deny that the Armenians suffered genocide during 1915 at the hands of the Ottomans.  The French should – but won’t – discuss the 1.7 million Algerians that were killed during their colonial war.  That’s ok as we all know that governments are hypocritical when it comes to their own history but are easily lured by the political advantage of condemning other nations or peoples. 

However, France and some other continental countries go further that simply expressing an opinion. They legislate against any other opinion that challenges their view.  Note to France (and Germany) – this is curbing the freedom of speech which you hold is one of the foundations of liberal democracy.  It is unique to France and such actions would never occur in the US or the UK.

There is no question that Turkey needs to move forward on its own to recognize the tragedy of 1915 – perpetrated by a different government in both form and substance.   It was clearly an attempt at ethnic cleansing – not genocide (as the word did not exist until recently).  The actions of the Ottomans need to be addressed between Armenia and Turkey and I humbly suggest that the comfortable Armenians in the United States and France keep their collective noses out of the issue.  I spent enough time in Armenia to know that many there would be able to resolve their differences in the region if they were permitted by the diaspora to do so.

And perhaps France and Germany should keep in mind that their great EU experiment is heading for catastrophe while Turkey is a rising power that should be courted, not rejected not least because its economy puts every EU member, except for Poland, to shame.

Simplistic Thinking on Turkey and Armenia

Image via Wikipedia

The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia has stalled – to put it mildly. But I don’t think the remarks here juxtaposing the peace sculpture (however ugly or not) erected in Kars in Eastern Turkey with the stalled effort (which was not conceived solely in Washington as is stated) at normalization between the two countries as representative of  foreign policy folly, as the author states. You need to go to the VOA web-site to read the entire article which clearly sets forth what happened and the diverse opinions involved as well as the election considerations at the time in Turkey.


Let’s get something straight here. The NK issue needs to be resolved to the satisfaction of both Baku and Yerevan. It is precisely the interference of those diaspora living comfortably in the West which constitutes the roadblock to any type of compromise. No one wants another war and it is unlikely to occur unless Russia allows it. Anyone who thinks that Moscow does not hold the key to a settlement (or anything else in the Caucuses) is a foreign policy naïf.

Turkish Nationalism

Prime Minister Erdogan seems to be going over the edge recently.  I admit I am a strong supporter of Turkish accession to the EU (although the economic utility of membership is highly questionable) as well as a supporter of its newly found self-awareness and confidence of Turkish foreign policy. But...

The PM's recent remarks, after the Armenian Genocide Resolution that recently passed a US Congressonal Committee vote, which threatened to expel 100,000 of the approximately 170,000 Armenians from Turkey because only 70,000 are citizens is, to be diplomatic, not helpful.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt, the upcoming elections may have something to do with his growing, excessive nationalistic positions.  They are, nevertheless, unhealthy in a country that has come so far politically and economically.  Turkey has made this mistake in the past. It has not been to its benefit.

Armenia Offers Non-Aggression Pact

Armenian President Serge Sarkisian has offered a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan in order to establish a basis for further negotiation to settle the Ngorno Kharabakh issue. İlham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, should accept the offer.

A non-aggression pact is essentially meaningless except for the optics. Azerbaijan is not going to war with Armenia over the NK for the simple reason that Russia, Turkey and Europe would not permit it. So, the optics are good for Azerbaijan since it loses nothing and the media would tout it.

Armenia's position that the NK should determine its own fate through a referendum is a nice idea except that it would be necessary to allow all the Azeris who fled back in - unlikely at the moment as that powerful nation of Glendale, California would erupt in anger and frustration at the prospect that a peaceful settlement, satisfactory to all parties would come a step closer.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting offer that Aliyev should not dismiss out of hand, meaningless or not. Perceptions often count more than facts.

International Relations Stupidity

Some examples today of total stupidity in international affairs:

1. The Armenia Genocide Resolution passes by one vote in the US. A grand victory for those comfortable Armenians in California who want to alienate the most powerful, democratic ally of the US in the region and destroy the reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia in order to recognize an atrocity that happened under a completely different political structure almost a century ago and has nothing to do with Turkey. Maybe the US should now demand that Armenia break its alliance with the Russian Federation and expel its army.

The next resolution should be one that condemns Syria for the genocidal atrocities committed by Ashurbanipal, king of the Assyrian Empire against anyone he cared to roast alive including, in no particular order, Egypt, Iraq (then known as the Babylonian Empire) and Jordan(then part of the Elam Empire right next door that was essentially wiped out).

While we are at it, it was not so long ago that Italy burned Jerusalem and beseiged Masada. Apologies and reperations to Israel are required.

Last, but certainly not least, the US Congress should admit to its genocide of Native Americans. Oh, wait - they don't have a massive lobby or donate hugely to campaigns. Sorry.

2. Germany, that past paragon of virtue and peace, has suggested that Greece sell off its assets - particularly its uninhabited islands - to settle its debts. Let's see - this from a country that killed 400,000 Greeks between 1940 and 1944 and stole most of the money from the Greek banks. I guess Merkel needs a warm place to retire and will buy low, sell high.

3. Hillary Clinton, whom I otherwise support, delivered a remarkable statement in a news conference with Argentine President De Kirchner. The remarks from both to questions are as follows:

QUESTION: (In Spanish.)

And for the Secretary, it’s about the Falklands. The – President Fernandez talked about possible friendly mediation. Would the U.S. be considered – would the U.S. (inaudible) consider some kind of mediation role between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands? Thank you.


SECRETARY CLINTON: ...we want very much to encourage both countries to sit down. Now, we cannot make either one do so, but we think it is the right way to proceed. So we will be saying this publicly, as I have been, and we will continue to encourage exactly the kind of discussion across the table that needs to take place.

Um. Well, no. The UK has said very clearly that they do not intend to discuss the status of the Falklands so there is no possibility of sitting around a table to discuss that. Furthermore, no one living on the islands is interested in becoming Argentinian. There is no reason for the US to become involved and this statement is not helpful in the least and makes it look like a) the US can negotiate a settlement of territorial dispute that one side - a strong ally - has no intention of discussing and b) the US supports the Argentine position. Next time just say the US has no position.

Armenia and Turkey Take the Next Step

The protocol that will be signed on Saturday will be historic as it brings the southern Caucuses closer to stability and an end to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan (only a ceasefire is in place). A second protocol will expand on the normalization of relations and lead to a vote for ratification in Ankara and Yerevan after which the borders will be open.

The risk, of course, is that the nationalists in both Turkey and Armenia will do everything possible to assure the protocols are not ratified. This is the chosen role of nationalist parties world-wide - a single minded effort to undermine cross-border cooperation largely based on historical affronts by the other side.

Everything must be done in the case between Armenia and Turkey to push the nationalists to the side in the name of the substantial economic and political improvements to both countries.

The Turkish Armenia Protocols

Without question, both Turkey and Armenia are moving toward a mutual understanding while pinching their respective noses. I have long said that the relationship between Ankara and Yerevan was unsustainable for a variety of reasons.

First, the Nagorno-Kharabakh issue was not going to be settled on terms that either Yerevan or Baku liked. While working in Armenia for three years I found that the consensus expressed was that the NK should - and indeed could not be returned to Azerbaijan. However, the parallel consensus was that Armenia should not keep its military presence in the areas bordering the NK. They felt that the NK was Armenia but acknowledged that the occupied areas were exactly that - occupied and should be returned. This may ultimately be part of the deal. In addition, for all the bluster coming from Baku, they were not going to start another war if only because they would run smack into Russian border guards and Turkey would not back them up. That is why it recently proposed that the NK become semi-independent.

Second, Armenia is landlocked, poor and cannot grow economically with closed borders. They mistrust Iran and are not particularly close to Georgia whom they felt indulged in a great deal of profiteering during the war at the expense of Armenia despite being coreligionists. Businesses in Eastern Turkey have long wanted access to and across Armenia and Armenia needs the trade that will result - particularly if it then has additional access to the Black Sea and is not forced to use Georgian ports.

Finally, Turkey would like this diversion ended. It is a rising power in the Caucuses and Central Asia, not to mention the elephant in the room in the Middle East. Turkey is a competitor with Iran and is a democratic country - more so than any of its neighbors. The beginning of the end of this problem would allow Turkey to concentrate on expanding its influence, likely at the expense of Iran and Russia even though Russia wants a hold on Armenia.

The Armenia diaspora is demonstrating actively against any rapprochement. But then, I have always observed that, aside from summer vacations, they don't have to live in Armenia but can retreat to their pleasant California or French homes where they have running water, electricity 24 hours a day and incomes that exceed $35 a month. The Armenians, left to themselves, would have sorted out their international relations some time ago.

Settlements and compromises usually come gradually in diplomatic affairs. Finally, a major step appears to be on the verge of happening. Good.

Georgia, AES and Energy Development Programs

The BBC has an interesting TV program called Storyville which covers unusual or rare reports on issues that otherwise are not covered in great detail. Today I happened to tune in to the report on electricity supply in Georgia.

In 1999 the American firm AES won the tender to purchase the electrical distribution system in Georgia. This is not the same as buying the generation capacity which is owned separately and AES needs to pay for the power supplied to it. Thus, the payments by users, billed by AES, is critical to a viable and profitable operation. There is the rub. It is demonstrably not profitable and therefore not sustainable.

Development agencies such as USAID and EU programs have always emphasised the privatization of electrical distribution systems despite the fact that there has been no evidence that privatization, even through open bidding by seemingly knowledgeable private sector companies, would result in sustainable commercial companies. Tbilisi residents never had the money to pay the bills - especially the pensioners. With incomes around $30 - $50 per month the objective was to avoid the metering system (provided free, thank you very much) which could take as much as 50% of that income. AES would cut the power for non-payers, leaving many without light or television. AES, of course, needed to pay for the electricity it received, but considering the black hole of corruption in Georgia, the money it paid to those in charge of supply would disappear into the pockets of the energy ministry or other highly placed officials.

This is only one example. Armenia attempted the same with its distribution system - it did not work. The private sector built generation and distribution system in southern Tajikistan in Khorog fulfills the definition of bankrupt. In Khorog, the director of the facility was physically threatened when power was cut to homes. (Since I dealt with the firm which was owned by my employer at the time, it will go nameless).

There is the persistent idea that privatization of energy production, distribution or both in poverty rich nations like Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan, is the optimum solution. It has not worked and cutting off power to the poor is not an option. A different way forward for energy reform in poor countries needs to be developed. The backlash by ordinary people in Georgia against the US (AES is based in the US)because they live in darkness and can't afford the cost, does not benefit US foreign policy goals. Conversion of formally state run companies providing "free" public services, such as electricity, into for-profit firms needs a re-assessment.

Denying essential services to those who cannot afford to pay is not an option.

Threesome

Armenia and Turkey have announced a protocol to normalize relations. So far, so good. However, the protocol has simply been initialed and both parties need their respective parliaments to approve. That may be difficult in Armenia, and not so hard in Turkey. Another 'however' is the participation of Baku and its fears that Turkey is about to hang it out to dry over the NK region. Turkey will need to do something to calm them down. Their threats to cut of the gas and oil pipelines to Turkey and route them through Russia is probably not serious - they simply don't like the Russians. Nevertheless, the concerns over concessions on the NK - particularly if they involve giving up any claims - are real and need to be addressed.

As pointed out in this blog and elsewhere, an open border arrangement with Turkey is a big win for Armenia. It would open up trade routes and give Armenia access to ports other than those in Georgia. Increased economic activity would also, finally, provide support to all the economic and social development assistance programs that have been operating in Armenia since independence.

Yerevan will, of course, need to shrug off all the California Armenian patriots who comfortably oppose from their air-conditioned homes any dealings with Americas largest ally in the middle east - and a democratic one at that - unless Turkey agrees to refer to the death and destruction of Armenians and their villages during the waning days of the Ottomon Empire as a genocide. This will never happen and the Turkish proposal to set up a commission to study the period is the next best step.

Let's understand a couple of things. Ottomon policy was to punish independence minded Armenians for joining with the Russian Empire during World War I. This was official policy carried out to the extreme by units in the field resulting in the death of perhaps over 1.5 million ethnic Armenians. For Armenia itself, it is clearly important for Turkey to recognize the atrocities committed by Ottomon officers and soldiers on orders from Constantinople. If Turkey can find a way to do so, and if Armenia ultimately understands that their isolation and geographic position will keep the country poverty-stricken, at war with its neighbors and dependent on Russia, then a compromise will be reached.

In the meantime, the diaspora in their comfortable homes and relatively easy lives should keep to themselves and let those on the front lines resolve their differences.

Too much going on...plus Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Ukraine

I've been swamped with work in Ghana and events in Europe and Asia are cascading in ever increasing speed. However, I intend to get to it this weekend and we should be posting from Damascus and Baku shortly (reading this guys?).

First, there is Moldova where the recount confirmed the recent vote and victory for the Communist (sic) party by a hair and protests are likely to continue despite the outrage expressed by President Medvedev who really, really hates color revolutions. I find the offer of passports by Romania to 1 million Moldovans an interesting move - one that Russia uses to then follow up with an invasion to protect its "citizens". How far will Russia go with Moldova? Better - how far will Bucharest go?

Second, there is Georgia where protests are also likely to continue but may be bolstered by actual political alternatives to Saakashvili. Who will it be? What will he or she propose vis a vis Russia and NATO? Russia's dispatch of its entire Black Sea fleet this past week - with landing ships preceding the blue water craft and the rapid buildup in Abkhazia is meant as a threat. But to do what? The NATO exercise scheduled for early May has led to some hysterical statements coming out of Moscow. Perhaps the window of opportunity for Russia is closing a bit. Perhaps not. Saakashvili still needs to go but the opposition needs to have a leader and a plan of which there is absolutely no evidence so far.

Turkey and Armenia are shaking hands and Baku is stamping its foot like a spoiled child. Will the end of April see open borders? How will Russia react? How will Turkey handle the upcoming meetings with the EU regarding gas and oil supplies through Turkey? Is that why Putin and Gazprom are off to Bulgaria? Will Turkey risk Russian retaliation if it makes a deal with Armenia and pushes the Russians out?

Ukraine is, well, Ukraine. Will the IMF advance it the funds it needs to stabilize or continue to require unreasonable actions to reduce the budget deficit? They left Kyiv without saying. Will all the old guard need to die off before Ukrainian politicians serve their country more than themselves? Perhaps.

So...plenty to post about and as soon as I am out of the jungle in the Volta region of Ghana, I will.

Georgia, Moldova, Turkmenistan and Armenia

Except for Turkmenistan, the donor community has poured tens of millions of dollars into Georgia, Moldova and Armenia. For all the money, Moldova remains an economic basket case and Georgia is in entropy mode. Armenia may move away from the downward spiral it has been experiencing since the end of the 1993 war with Azerbaijan - but it won't have anything to do with the development aid it has received over those years. It will be because of changes in the geo-political make-up of the region, the rise of Turkey and a resurgent Russia intent on re-creating the Soviet Union.

Moldova is an interesting case because I recall a heavy emphasis - at the expense of economic and business support - on civil society programs. This was particularly the case with USAID whose local mission was in thrall to civil society. The problem with that is a poor household does not really care about civil society if it has little or no income or food. What is also surprising is for all intents and purposes, the current government won the election by a few points. They call themselves "communist" but in reality they are not. They simply have an un-reformed soviet style system - despite all that foreign aid - which lives up to its previous inefficiency. Moldova's biggest and unrecoverable mistake was seperating from Romania. The second problem is the Transdneister, that sliver of illegal, trafficking, blackmarket and gun-running dirt with its own unrecognized passport and thousands of Russian troops to protect it from Moldova, of which it is a part. The Transdneister problem is what keeps Moldova tied to Russia. No development aid that does not take that into consideration will succeed. Nor will it succeed without strong political will within the Moldovan government to change. That may require a change in the system.


Georgia - well, that's a different case. It is very clear that Saakashvili must go. It may be that his attempt to assert central government control over the break-away regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was partly due to his promise to the more nationalistic parties in Georgia to do so and thereby win the last election, but now comes the blow-back. It was never really important for Georgia to regain control of those two regions over which it has had no effective control for a decade. Even if Russia has overreached and concentrated the attention of Turkey and Azerbaijan on its newly imperial ambitions, Georgia is now in danger of disintegration as long as Saakashvili remains. If Georgia loses Batumi, then it loses its oil transit revenues. A graceful way out is needed and the opposition must come up with a plan for moving forward economically, socially and politically and not just have the removal of Saakashvili as its goal.

Turkmenistan has now accused Russia, through Gazprom, of blowing up its gas pipeline on the Uzbek border this week. That may well be true. It will be interesting to see how the gas war develops because Russia is determined to gain almost total control of gas resources either through production or lines. This is the real great game developing in the western areas of Central Asia.

Armenia - Turkey Accord

Armenia and Turkey have been talking. There appears to be a chance that Turkey will open its borders. Let's make no mistake - this would open up huge market possibilities to the impoverished, Russian ally in the south Caucuses. Such a move would also play well for Turkey with the EU.

Open borders for Armenia could allow a larger portion of the earmarked US development aid funds to be utilized in implementing a variety of interventions aimed to develop Armenian trade and business ventures.

The benefits of trade across the border with Turkey, avoidance of Georgian customs corruption and the effective targeting of development aid to support private sector growth could bring about significant change in Armenia. The end to isolation would likely have an immediate positive impact on the rampant corruption in the government and public services that exists at every level.

Much depends on the extent of any agreement with Turkey and the resistance to such a move by Azerbaijan.

Hurriyet News reported today that Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov warned that "If the border is opened before the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, it would run counter to Azerbaijan's national interests".

This message was likely meant as much of a warning to Armenia as to Ankara. However, it also may represent an opening if it is not meant to only refer to Ngorno-Kharabakh. An offer by Armenia to withdraw from the other occupied territories could move the peace process forward. This may be the best time to start serious talks.

The other issue is Azerbaijan's position as independent of Russia, which might change if it felt that Turkey was about to abandon Baku. They have already signed a memorandum of understanding with Gazprom (Moscow's real foreign affairs arm) on natural gas transport through Russian pipes at market prices. Finalizing such an agreement would kill the Nabucco project which is intended to avoid Russia and bring natural gas to Europe via Turkey. So much for energy independence.

Finally, sorry Representative Kirk (R.CA). The Armenian Genocide bill will likely not pass now - Turkey, geo-politics, energy and peace are more important - and, what is the color of the sky on your planet? The failure of this bill will not cost the Democrats the House in 2010.