Russia's Roosting Chickens

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Much to my surprise, Brussels (but more likely Berlin) has been working tirelessly and quietly to remove the burden of Russian control over Europe’s (but actually Germany’s) severe dependence on gas from Siberia.

The European Union and Azerbaijan signed a deal Thursday in which Baku commits to supply Europe with "substantial volumes of gas," an agreement the EU said was an important step to reduce the bloc's dependence on deliveries from Russia.

Russia has used its energy resources as a weapon – not necessarily directly against Europe, but targeting Ukraine and Belarus. The strategy is aimed, and has largely succeeded, in assisting Moscow’s initial key foreign policy goals of regaining control of Ukraine and maintaining a thumb on Minsk. In doing so, however, Moscow alarmed Europe which needed to reduce gas imports from Russia before Russia began to use that same leverage to pressure the EU into ever more pro-Russian positions. The Kremlin’s energy gambit would allow it to loosen the support given by the EU to the Baltics, Poland and reduce other EU initiatives in the Caucuses and Central Asia. France, but not Germany, is immune to Russian pressure because of its huge nuclear energy facilities (a technology in which it is now the world leader).

The Russian move to bring Ukraine and the Caucuses back under its control was a key foreign policy goal of the Kremlin. The Russian Federation is a shell without Ukraine and the Caucuses is a buffer zone, like Belarus. The methods, however, were Putin’s. Without compunction, Putin’s Russia blatantly interfered in Ukrainian elections, invaded Georgia, signed virtually permanent military agreements with Armenia (outflanking Georgia and the West) and used disputes over gas pricing and transit fees with Ukraine to cut off gas supplies which happened to flow west. Europe, much to my surprise I admit, got the point and has started taking some action.

The faux democracy, single media environment of Russia built by Putin is now seeing some of its egg layers home to roost and one of them is named Nabucco.

US Foreign Policy Gains with Recess Appointments

Fortunately, President Obama has finally shown some backbone and made several important recess appointments that are critical for US foreign policy. Three of the key appointments are those of ambassadors to Turkey, Syria and Azerbaijan.

Frank Ricciardone is the new ambassador to Ankara ending five months without representation in Turkey, a key player in the region. In proceeding with the recess appointment President Obama has filled a gaping hole in the ability of America to have a voice on the ground in a critical area of the world. A gaping hole produced by the rank stupidity of the Republicans and their anti-Turkish allies who would sacrifice a relationship with the most powerful and influential country in the region for the pitiful, Russian ally, Armenia.

Similarly, American, not Armenian or Israeli interests, will be served well by the appointment of late Wednesday, Obama announced recess appointments of Matt Bryza to be ambassador to Azerbaijan and Robert Ford to Syria.

Bryza’s confirmation had been put on hold by pro-Armenian Democratic senators Barbara Boxer and Robert Menendez; Obama’s recess-appointment decision was protested by the largest and most influential U.S. Armenian group.

Bryza is a career diplomat but was opposed by some in the Armenian-American community because of comments he made in his previous position as deputy assistant secretary of state for European affairs while trying to negotiate an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, an intractable issue largely controlled by Russia.

Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America said “Armenian-Americans are deeply troubled by President Obama’s decision today to circumvent the U.S. Senate and use a recess appointment to send a deeply flawed diplomat to represent America in Azerbaijan” .

“The president’s push to send Matt Bryza to Baku without Senate approval represents a disservice to American diplomacy that will, sadly, undermine our nation’s ability to advance our interests and values in the Caucasus region”.

Mr. Hamparian, with all due respect, is full of it. Armenia is a Russian ally. It is unbelievably corrupt and undemocratic despite, or perhaps as a result of, being the recipient of hundreds of millions of US aid dollars. It recently signed a treaty with the Russian Federation renewing the military base in Gumri and all its borders are guarded by Russian troops. The California Armenians are very willing to fight to the last local Armenians in defense of retaining the NK as a part of Armenia. Yerevan’s values and interests have nothing to do with Mr. Hamparian’s values and interests. Furthermore, from a geo-political standpoint, keeping Azerbaijan independent of Russia is vastly more important despite it’s less than stellar political system.

For a taste of what Mr. Hamparian is touting as Armenian values, one case currently before the European Court of Human Rights is an appeal to review the case of Armenian opposition activist and former newspaper editor-in-chief Nikol Pashinian.

His attorney filed suit at the Strasbourg court against Pashinian's unjust prosecution, prison conditions and limitations to visiting hours. Pashinian was arrested in 2009 on charges of inciting violence against the authorities and organizing mass unrest on March 1, following a February 2008 election, an election that was questionably handled.

He was convicted by an Armenian court and ordered to serve a 7 year sentence. He is currently being held in Artik prison. Artik prison is an atrocious facility.

Pashinian is the editor-in-chief of the daily Haykakan Zhamanak (The Armenian Times), a popular daily known for its support for Armenia’s first president Levon Ter-Petrosian, and has written a number of severely critical articles about President Serge Sarkisian and his predecessor Robert Kocharian.

His lawyer is not allowed to see his client in private to discuss the course of the trial. This is an open violation of human rights and, I might add, violates even Armenian laws. Further, his wife has claimed that he had been assaulted in prison several times in the last two months by masked people. Having lived and worked in Armenia, I would give this claim credence. She has said she feared for his life and is only allowed to see her husband once a month for four hours.

His situation is just an example of the crippled state of Armenian democracy and how human rights and the freedom of speech are persecuted in the country for the political ends of the few.

And here is another: Armenia has denied a broadcast license to an independent television station, A1+, despite a European Court of Human Rights judgment that previous denials violated freedom of expression, an international Human Rights watchdog reported this week.

"Today's decision is another setback for freedom of expression and information in Armenia," said Giorgi Gogia, South Caucasus researcher at Human Rights Watch. "It's clear that keeping a critic off the air is more important to this government than its international legal obligations.

So when a head of an Armenian-American lobbying group talks about values he needs to take a pill and face reality. It is not in American interests to support an un-democratic Russian ally with delusions of regional importance.

The Turkish appointment is vastly more important than the one to Azerbaijan. Turkey is a NATO member and a balancing force with a vibrant economy and strong military. The Russian Federation actually pays attention to Ankara and as the US has found out, without a voice on the ground it has far less influence in Turkey’s foreign affairs decisions.

Also, from a geo-political standpoint, engaging with Syria is a major component in US middle-eastern foreign policy. As much as the current Israeli government, under the control apparently of its thuggish foreign minister, might prefer to isolate Syria that policy has been a mistake. Syria is intent on regaining what it considers historical control of Lebanon and to that extent is not entirely happy with the level of Iranian intervention through Hezbollah. Turning Syria would only help Israel as nothing gets to Hezbollah from Iran without Syrian acquiescence. Iran knows this as well so the appointment of a US ambassador to Damascus will be of great concern to Tehran.

Good for President Obama.

Armenia Offers Non-Aggression Pact

Armenian President Serge Sarkisian has offered a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan in order to establish a basis for further negotiation to settle the Ngorno Kharabakh issue. İlham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, should accept the offer.

A non-aggression pact is essentially meaningless except for the optics. Azerbaijan is not going to war with Armenia over the NK for the simple reason that Russia, Turkey and Europe would not permit it. So, the optics are good for Azerbaijan since it loses nothing and the media would tout it.

Armenia's position that the NK should determine its own fate through a referendum is a nice idea except that it would be necessary to allow all the Azeris who fled back in - unlikely at the moment as that powerful nation of Glendale, California would erupt in anger and frustration at the prospect that a peaceful settlement, satisfactory to all parties would come a step closer.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting offer that Aliyev should not dismiss out of hand, meaningless or not. Perceptions often count more than facts.

Dagestan Rebel Funding and Russia

An Agence France Press Report published in Hurriyet on Saturday reported on a Russian news broadcast that Dagestan rebels were being financed by supporters in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. Interesting that Georgia was included in an otherwise Islamic country list and may be just gratuitous, although Georgia does have at its disposal some very wealthy individuals. Georgia also has some justifiable grievances against Russia. Nevertheless, this appears to be part of a growing Kremlin campaign to solidify and set the stage for extending its position in the Caucuses even if it is a legend. But,even if true, the distinction made between funding by a country and its citizens does not change the Russian paranoia of foreign interference in an attempt to dismantle or neuter the Federation. Last week, for example, the Kremlin's installed leader of Chechnya called for the liquidation of Ukraine and Georgia referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union as foreign sponsored.

Putin may be using these statements to gauge public and international reactions. An adverse, reaction would allow the Kremlin to disavow any reported plans and distance itself from the 'liquidation' remarks made by the murderer currently in charge in Chechnya. However, regardless, these statements seem to be warning to Turkey and Azerbaijan not to press their foreign policies too independently in the Caucuses.

As I suggested in my post below, Russia will seek to solidify and expand its control over the Caucuses in the coming year. Saturday was the first stage - control the message.

The Friday Prayer

Ayatollah Khamenei has proven uncompromising. This is likely because the maneuvering taking place under the radar of attempted media coverage, particularly by Rafsanjani, is a threat to him more than Ahmadinejad.

The speech does not offer any hope to those who are challenging the election. The threat that the demonstrators "face the consequences" should be taken seriously, but Khamenei needs the acquiescence of Mousavi and the other candidates to call off the demonstrators since they are part of the establishment. An attack on the demonstrators without a statement from Mousavi that they should all go home would have consequences for the regime that could open the way for full destabilization. This weekend will be critical.

A couple of things are certain, however. Iran clearly has had the pretense of its brand of democracy stripped away. There is no freedom of speech. Newspapers cannot publish opposition materials, electronic media of all forms is jammed and the leadership is more than a little paranoid. All this must be kept in mind for future negotiations with the government about any issue.

What is strange among all countries of this type (Khazakstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, China and Venezuela) is that open elections would very likely return to power those who are currently in power. Medvedev and Putin are so popular that a real open campaign would be decided in a landslide in their favor. The same is true for Khazakstan, and probably true, though less so, for Azerbaijan. They need the pretence because they want to hold on to power more than anything else.

I remain more or less convinced that nothing will change in Iran, or if it does, outsiders will only see the shadows, like the shadow puppets of Indonesia, and nothing will be clear. Dealing with Iran in the future will be more difficult once the current situation settles down. But that is no reason not to continue with opening the door to negotiations. There is no other choice.

Nabucco moves forward?

This is interesting news and a surprise (at least to me). The pipeline would not be finished until 2014 at the earliest, but the biggest question was who would be willing to fill it. None of the Central Asian countries would likely consider agreeing to do so at this time for several reasons, it seems. The first is that they would be unwilling to irritate Russia as the pipeline is specifically designed to avoid Russia and lessen European dependence on Russian gas transit and supplies. The second reason is that it is a long way to go - crossing Iran and the mountains to Turkey - while the Caspian is a huge barrier to piping gas from Central Asia.

From a geopolitical standpoint, this announcement must be a blow to Baku which has watched Turkish negotiations with Armenia with some degree of concern. Nabucco crossing the Caspian would have needed to cross Azerbaijan, giving it some degree of leverage with Turkey and Turkey has been very cautious in dealing with Russia which is calling the shots in the South Caucuses. Iraq eliminates that problem for Turkey and gives it more room to maneuver with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia.

Georgia, Moldova, Turkmenistan and Armenia

Except for Turkmenistan, the donor community has poured tens of millions of dollars into Georgia, Moldova and Armenia. For all the money, Moldova remains an economic basket case and Georgia is in entropy mode. Armenia may move away from the downward spiral it has been experiencing since the end of the 1993 war with Azerbaijan - but it won't have anything to do with the development aid it has received over those years. It will be because of changes in the geo-political make-up of the region, the rise of Turkey and a resurgent Russia intent on re-creating the Soviet Union.

Moldova is an interesting case because I recall a heavy emphasis - at the expense of economic and business support - on civil society programs. This was particularly the case with USAID whose local mission was in thrall to civil society. The problem with that is a poor household does not really care about civil society if it has little or no income or food. What is also surprising is for all intents and purposes, the current government won the election by a few points. They call themselves "communist" but in reality they are not. They simply have an un-reformed soviet style system - despite all that foreign aid - which lives up to its previous inefficiency. Moldova's biggest and unrecoverable mistake was seperating from Romania. The second problem is the Transdneister, that sliver of illegal, trafficking, blackmarket and gun-running dirt with its own unrecognized passport and thousands of Russian troops to protect it from Moldova, of which it is a part. The Transdneister problem is what keeps Moldova tied to Russia. No development aid that does not take that into consideration will succeed. Nor will it succeed without strong political will within the Moldovan government to change. That may require a change in the system.


Georgia - well, that's a different case. It is very clear that Saakashvili must go. It may be that his attempt to assert central government control over the break-away regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was partly due to his promise to the more nationalistic parties in Georgia to do so and thereby win the last election, but now comes the blow-back. It was never really important for Georgia to regain control of those two regions over which it has had no effective control for a decade. Even if Russia has overreached and concentrated the attention of Turkey and Azerbaijan on its newly imperial ambitions, Georgia is now in danger of disintegration as long as Saakashvili remains. If Georgia loses Batumi, then it loses its oil transit revenues. A graceful way out is needed and the opposition must come up with a plan for moving forward economically, socially and politically and not just have the removal of Saakashvili as its goal.

Turkmenistan has now accused Russia, through Gazprom, of blowing up its gas pipeline on the Uzbek border this week. That may well be true. It will be interesting to see how the gas war develops because Russia is determined to gain almost total control of gas resources either through production or lines. This is the real great game developing in the western areas of Central Asia.

Armenia - Turkey Accord

Armenia and Turkey have been talking. There appears to be a chance that Turkey will open its borders. Let's make no mistake - this would open up huge market possibilities to the impoverished, Russian ally in the south Caucuses. Such a move would also play well for Turkey with the EU.

Open borders for Armenia could allow a larger portion of the earmarked US development aid funds to be utilized in implementing a variety of interventions aimed to develop Armenian trade and business ventures.

The benefits of trade across the border with Turkey, avoidance of Georgian customs corruption and the effective targeting of development aid to support private sector growth could bring about significant change in Armenia. The end to isolation would likely have an immediate positive impact on the rampant corruption in the government and public services that exists at every level.

Much depends on the extent of any agreement with Turkey and the resistance to such a move by Azerbaijan.

Hurriyet News reported today that Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov warned that "If the border is opened before the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, it would run counter to Azerbaijan's national interests".

This message was likely meant as much of a warning to Armenia as to Ankara. However, it also may represent an opening if it is not meant to only refer to Ngorno-Kharabakh. An offer by Armenia to withdraw from the other occupied territories could move the peace process forward. This may be the best time to start serious talks.

The other issue is Azerbaijan's position as independent of Russia, which might change if it felt that Turkey was about to abandon Baku. They have already signed a memorandum of understanding with Gazprom (Moscow's real foreign affairs arm) on natural gas transport through Russian pipes at market prices. Finalizing such an agreement would kill the Nabucco project which is intended to avoid Russia and bring natural gas to Europe via Turkey. So much for energy independence.

Finally, sorry Representative Kirk (R.CA). The Armenian Genocide bill will likely not pass now - Turkey, geo-politics, energy and peace are more important - and, what is the color of the sky on your planet? The failure of this bill will not cost the Democrats the House in 2010.