Simplistic Thinking on Turkey and Armenia

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The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia has stalled – to put it mildly. But I don’t think the remarks here juxtaposing the peace sculpture (however ugly or not) erected in Kars in Eastern Turkey with the stalled effort (which was not conceived solely in Washington as is stated) at normalization between the two countries as representative of  foreign policy folly, as the author states. You need to go to the VOA web-site to read the entire article which clearly sets forth what happened and the diverse opinions involved as well as the election considerations at the time in Turkey.


Let’s get something straight here. The NK issue needs to be resolved to the satisfaction of both Baku and Yerevan. It is precisely the interference of those diaspora living comfortably in the West which constitutes the roadblock to any type of compromise. No one wants another war and it is unlikely to occur unless Russia allows it. Anyone who thinks that Moscow does not hold the key to a settlement (or anything else in the Caucuses) is a foreign policy naïf.

South Caucuses and a Return to Normal Foreign Policy

 

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 In what should be considered another example of a return to “normal” foreign policy choices cited in a previous post, Russia signed a treaty with Armenia that commits it to defend the borders of Armenia proper while in August, Turkey signed a Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance with Azerbaijan that happens to include the establishment of a military base in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic – an Azerbaijani exclave between Armenia and Turkey. The tacit agreement, with US preoccupation in other regions, is that the South Caucuses (see map) now belongs to Turkey and Russia to work out. Indeed, both the EU and the US seem to have concluded on a period of strategic neglect in the region.

What is interesting about the latest round of treaties vowing to protect the territorial integrities of Azerbaijan and Armenia by, respectively Turkey and Russia (with the notable exception of the Ngorno Kharabakh enclave which both Armenia and Russia studiously avoided), is the return to a 19th and early 20th century diplomacy. These are zones of interest which could be characterized as a return to normalcy after the end of history in 1991. It also represents the collapse of any agreement on Ngorno Kharabakh as the two local players rely on their much more powerful regional allies to assure their relative safety and prevent the conflict from reigniting while retaining the status quo.

Meanwhile, both Turkey and Russia are shepherding a solution to the Ngorno Kharabakh issue by working on bi-lateral meetings between Baku and Yerevan – the first one having been held in the Russian Caspian Sea city of Astrakhan during the last week of October and the next soon to be held at the OSCE conference in Astana. The absence of the EU and the US from this process is telling and another example of a new, old foreign policy system based on regional power.

Armenia Offers Non-Aggression Pact

Armenian President Serge Sarkisian has offered a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan in order to establish a basis for further negotiation to settle the Ngorno Kharabakh issue. İlham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, should accept the offer.

A non-aggression pact is essentially meaningless except for the optics. Azerbaijan is not going to war with Armenia over the NK for the simple reason that Russia, Turkey and Europe would not permit it. So, the optics are good for Azerbaijan since it loses nothing and the media would tout it.

Armenia's position that the NK should determine its own fate through a referendum is a nice idea except that it would be necessary to allow all the Azeris who fled back in - unlikely at the moment as that powerful nation of Glendale, California would erupt in anger and frustration at the prospect that a peaceful settlement, satisfactory to all parties would come a step closer.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting offer that Aliyev should not dismiss out of hand, meaningless or not. Perceptions often count more than facts.