The Turkish Armenia Protocols

Without question, both Turkey and Armenia are moving toward a mutual understanding while pinching their respective noses. I have long said that the relationship between Ankara and Yerevan was unsustainable for a variety of reasons.

First, the Nagorno-Kharabakh issue was not going to be settled on terms that either Yerevan or Baku liked. While working in Armenia for three years I found that the consensus expressed was that the NK should - and indeed could not be returned to Azerbaijan. However, the parallel consensus was that Armenia should not keep its military presence in the areas bordering the NK. They felt that the NK was Armenia but acknowledged that the occupied areas were exactly that - occupied and should be returned. This may ultimately be part of the deal. In addition, for all the bluster coming from Baku, they were not going to start another war if only because they would run smack into Russian border guards and Turkey would not back them up. That is why it recently proposed that the NK become semi-independent.

Second, Armenia is landlocked, poor and cannot grow economically with closed borders. They mistrust Iran and are not particularly close to Georgia whom they felt indulged in a great deal of profiteering during the war at the expense of Armenia despite being coreligionists. Businesses in Eastern Turkey have long wanted access to and across Armenia and Armenia needs the trade that will result - particularly if it then has additional access to the Black Sea and is not forced to use Georgian ports.

Finally, Turkey would like this diversion ended. It is a rising power in the Caucuses and Central Asia, not to mention the elephant in the room in the Middle East. Turkey is a competitor with Iran and is a democratic country - more so than any of its neighbors. The beginning of the end of this problem would allow Turkey to concentrate on expanding its influence, likely at the expense of Iran and Russia even though Russia wants a hold on Armenia.

The Armenia diaspora is demonstrating actively against any rapprochement. But then, I have always observed that, aside from summer vacations, they don't have to live in Armenia but can retreat to their pleasant California or French homes where they have running water, electricity 24 hours a day and incomes that exceed $35 a month. The Armenians, left to themselves, would have sorted out their international relations some time ago.

Settlements and compromises usually come gradually in diplomatic affairs. Finally, a major step appears to be on the verge of happening. Good.

Armenia - Turkey Accord

Armenia and Turkey have been talking. There appears to be a chance that Turkey will open its borders. Let's make no mistake - this would open up huge market possibilities to the impoverished, Russian ally in the south Caucuses. Such a move would also play well for Turkey with the EU.

Open borders for Armenia could allow a larger portion of the earmarked US development aid funds to be utilized in implementing a variety of interventions aimed to develop Armenian trade and business ventures.

The benefits of trade across the border with Turkey, avoidance of Georgian customs corruption and the effective targeting of development aid to support private sector growth could bring about significant change in Armenia. The end to isolation would likely have an immediate positive impact on the rampant corruption in the government and public services that exists at every level.

Much depends on the extent of any agreement with Turkey and the resistance to such a move by Azerbaijan.

Hurriyet News reported today that Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov warned that "If the border is opened before the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, it would run counter to Azerbaijan's national interests".

This message was likely meant as much of a warning to Armenia as to Ankara. However, it also may represent an opening if it is not meant to only refer to Ngorno-Kharabakh. An offer by Armenia to withdraw from the other occupied territories could move the peace process forward. This may be the best time to start serious talks.

The other issue is Azerbaijan's position as independent of Russia, which might change if it felt that Turkey was about to abandon Baku. They have already signed a memorandum of understanding with Gazprom (Moscow's real foreign affairs arm) on natural gas transport through Russian pipes at market prices. Finalizing such an agreement would kill the Nabucco project which is intended to avoid Russia and bring natural gas to Europe via Turkey. So much for energy independence.

Finally, sorry Representative Kirk (R.CA). The Armenian Genocide bill will likely not pass now - Turkey, geo-politics, energy and peace are more important - and, what is the color of the sky on your planet? The failure of this bill will not cost the Democrats the House in 2010.