Under the Radar News

As I sit here without a car on a Sunday to get out of the metropolis of Maseru (with the added injury of being called at 7 ON A SUNDAY MORNING about borrowing it), I've been going over some news snips about matters that rarely covered but which may be of interest and - like the butterfly effect - could have consequences very far away.

If few outside of Eastern Europe, Russia and Caucuses have noticed, that's hardly a surprise.  But, recently the last dictator in Europe, President Lukashenko of Belarus has been at odds, to say the least, with Moscow. In a series of escalating moves, he has made an alliance of convenience with Georgia and its President, Sakaasvili to the extent that Sakaasvili was allowed to castigate Russia on a popular TV station in Minsk. To say that this has annoyed Moscow is an understatement.  I give it a month.

On the other side of the planet, Hugo the Great has severed ties with Columbia in a hissy fit claiming that Uribe was capable of and indeed, plans provoking a war with Venezuala and impeding regional integration. Chavez seems to be feeling left out of everything lately - haveing been so successful in destroyng the economy and unable of realizing it is Brazil calling the shots.

There has never been privately owned media in Turkmenistan - until now. The President, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, has ordered it so.

In case it appears that the burqa ban is only an issue in Europe - Damascus has now made the move.

Finally, this is really discriminatory!  And from the Dutch, no less.

EU Consolation Prize for Losing Ukraine and Turkey: Georgia

There is nothing really wrong with the recent European Union decision to launch talks with Georgia on an association pact that would strengthen relations, although the title implies otherwise.  It's a little late and the big prizes, Ukraine and Turkey, have already been lost.

No one, of course, will admit to the fact that France and Germany blew it in Ukraine and deliberately removed Turkey from the accession table.  EU foreign policy remains a mystery of logic. But then, if it makes Sakashavili happy, what's the loss?

Moscow's Abkhazia and South Ossetia Problem

Image via Wikipedia

Despite my normal misgivings about Ukraine’s changing foreign policy positions toward Russia and the West – none of which is surprising since Russia is next door and has all the leverage – their Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko has said that the Yanukovych administration has no plans to recognize an independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Citing the sanctity of borders as the reason, Kyiv has now joined Minsk in refusing, so far, to bow to Moscow’s need to have some other countries aside from the diplomatic coups of getting Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru (look it up) to recognize both break-away regions of Georgia.

How long Belarus will keep up its in-your-face attitude with Russia is an open question. They have welcomed former president Bakiyev of the Kyrgyz Republic, a less than popular decision in the Kremlin, and have also refused recognition of Georgia’s lost regions. The same is true for Kyiv, which may be realizing that its balancing act with Europe would be damaged by recognition. Moscow has a problem, which may account for its less aggressive tone lately as it tries to attract Western investment.

April Fool or Not in Georgia

Image by onewmphoto via Flickr

Sometimes, because what is true can be typically bizzare, this story out of Georgia may or may not be true. 

Given the content, I am inclined to think it is a joke. But then again, this is Georgia...and he looks concerned.

Dagestan Rebel Funding and Russia

An Agence France Press Report published in Hurriyet on Saturday reported on a Russian news broadcast that Dagestan rebels were being financed by supporters in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. Interesting that Georgia was included in an otherwise Islamic country list and may be just gratuitous, although Georgia does have at its disposal some very wealthy individuals. Georgia also has some justifiable grievances against Russia. Nevertheless, this appears to be part of a growing Kremlin campaign to solidify and set the stage for extending its position in the Caucuses even if it is a legend. But,even if true, the distinction made between funding by a country and its citizens does not change the Russian paranoia of foreign interference in an attempt to dismantle or neuter the Federation. Last week, for example, the Kremlin's installed leader of Chechnya called for the liquidation of Ukraine and Georgia referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union as foreign sponsored.

Putin may be using these statements to gauge public and international reactions. An adverse, reaction would allow the Kremlin to disavow any reported plans and distance itself from the 'liquidation' remarks made by the murderer currently in charge in Chechnya. However, regardless, these statements seem to be warning to Turkey and Azerbaijan not to press their foreign policies too independently in the Caucuses.

As I suggested in my post below, Russia will seek to solidify and expand its control over the Caucuses in the coming year. Saturday was the first stage - control the message.

US, Ukraine, Georgia, Iran and Russia

A few days ago Alexander Vershbow, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, reportedly suggested that Ukraine would be an appropriate location for radar sites such as had recently been scraped for the Czech Republic as part of the ill-conceived BMD system of Bush that involved placing BMD missiles in Poland. Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs was taken by surprise, to say the least, as was Ukraine.

What appears to have happened is that Vershbow was referring to existing radar systems in Ukraine and not the prospect of placing US BMD systems in their place or even in addition.

The Assistant Secretary of Defense is also visiting Moscow and will be in Georgia starting on October 19 where defence discussions will be on the agenda. These discussions will likely review and revise the military training support provided by the US to the Georgian army. What is unclear is whether the training will now be ratcheted up and include offensive capabilities.

Both the comment regarding Ukraine's inclusion in the future BMD shield (and after all, the land based system will not be implemented until 2015)and the meetings in Georgia are likely to raise hackles in Moscow, more regarding Georgia than Ukraine. Ukraine will have a new, more Russia centric president in January, so any US or NATO hopes for retaining Ukraine as a potential balance to Russia is circling the drain. Implementing a policy such as suggested by Vershbow - even using existing Ukrainian radar bases - would be rapidly unwound by the new government. It's a waste of energy and an empty threat.

Georgia, on the other hand, is a completely different matter to Russia. They have made it clear that Sakaashvili is not high on their list of favorite leaders. They have effectively seized portions of Georgia and declared their independence. As far as Russia was concerned, they virtually had the Caucuses wrapped up. So an increase in the US presence in Georgia would be a set-back for Russia's planning.

The international dance playing out by the US and Russia largely has to do with Iran. Russia wants to continue to reassert itself in the near-abroad and to do so, it holds out its leverage with Iran. The US is refusing to back away from maintaining and increasing its influence in Russia's backyard. The statements regarding Ukraine are meaningless. Georgia, however, is a different matter. US boots on the ground in Georgia become a trip-wire just as Russian troops are on the territories it seized. It would close out full control of the Caucuses for Russia.

As time goes on, however, it is becoming increasing clear that Iran is not going to walk back its uranium enrichment program, a key issue for Israel. If that is the case, then Russia will gradually lose its influence in Iran as well.

Once Russia is perceived as not being able or willing to deliver anything regarding Iran, its leverage will dissipate. Georgia can likely expect increasing support from the US while the US will encourage Turkey to reach diplomatic deals with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's game plan for the entire Caucuses could unravel.

I think by the end of the year the geo-political landscape will be significantly changed in the region while at the same time making it more dangerous. Everyone should re-read "The Guns of August".

The Turkish Armenia Protocols

Without question, both Turkey and Armenia are moving toward a mutual understanding while pinching their respective noses. I have long said that the relationship between Ankara and Yerevan was unsustainable for a variety of reasons.

First, the Nagorno-Kharabakh issue was not going to be settled on terms that either Yerevan or Baku liked. While working in Armenia for three years I found that the consensus expressed was that the NK should - and indeed could not be returned to Azerbaijan. However, the parallel consensus was that Armenia should not keep its military presence in the areas bordering the NK. They felt that the NK was Armenia but acknowledged that the occupied areas were exactly that - occupied and should be returned. This may ultimately be part of the deal. In addition, for all the bluster coming from Baku, they were not going to start another war if only because they would run smack into Russian border guards and Turkey would not back them up. That is why it recently proposed that the NK become semi-independent.

Second, Armenia is landlocked, poor and cannot grow economically with closed borders. They mistrust Iran and are not particularly close to Georgia whom they felt indulged in a great deal of profiteering during the war at the expense of Armenia despite being coreligionists. Businesses in Eastern Turkey have long wanted access to and across Armenia and Armenia needs the trade that will result - particularly if it then has additional access to the Black Sea and is not forced to use Georgian ports.

Finally, Turkey would like this diversion ended. It is a rising power in the Caucuses and Central Asia, not to mention the elephant in the room in the Middle East. Turkey is a competitor with Iran and is a democratic country - more so than any of its neighbors. The beginning of the end of this problem would allow Turkey to concentrate on expanding its influence, likely at the expense of Iran and Russia even though Russia wants a hold on Armenia.

The Armenia diaspora is demonstrating actively against any rapprochement. But then, I have always observed that, aside from summer vacations, they don't have to live in Armenia but can retreat to their pleasant California or French homes where they have running water, electricity 24 hours a day and incomes that exceed $35 a month. The Armenians, left to themselves, would have sorted out their international relations some time ago.

Settlements and compromises usually come gradually in diplomatic affairs. Finally, a major step appears to be on the verge of happening. Good.

Georgia and Russia and Investigative Reports

Let's see...what is worse, stupidity or breaking international law? Would the second have occurred without the first or were they mutually exclusive and events would have progressed more or less toward the same conclusion.

In any event, I'm making a judgement call. The breach of international law identified in by those investigating the Russian-Georgian 5 day war is worse because it was a set-up (entrapment, if you wish) by the well armed prosecutor, Russia, taking advantage of the incredibly self-pitying and stupid Saakashvili in Georgia; the Russian's knew he would rise to the bait.

The investigative report was even handed; but, the breach of international law by Russia in, first, distributing citizenship papers and passports widely (as has been done in Crimea) and then seizing territory of the adjoining state during a civil war to "protect" it's "citizens" is only marginally better than Nazi Germany's actions in Czechoslovakia and Austria.

That being said, the inconceivable stupidity of Saakashvili in rising to the bait set out by Russia should disqualify him from running the country.

Russia Legislates Unilateral Intervention

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The Russian Duma recently passed its first reading of a new amendment to its Law on Defense. Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with defense, but a great deal to do with military intervention in its sphere of influence. If enacted (and there is no doubt that the Duma, as ever, will pull out its rubber stamp) the amendment provides for using its military to "protect" Russian citizens outside its borders. History recalls that the Nazi regime in Germany used exactly that pretext for invasion.

Russia has a proclivity handing out passports to citizens of foreign countries. Guess what the reason was for the invasion of Georgia? Leaving aside the unwise provocations by the Georgian government, this is a dangerous new trend in Russian foreign policy and could easily be applied to Ukraine. Russia has handed out thousands of passports to its supporters in Crimea.

It would be unfortunate if Russia resorted to its military again, particularly against Ukraine which, despite a pathetic military, is no Georgia. Additionally, Russia's military is hardly an efficient fighting force having been embarrassed on the ground and in the air in the Georgia conflict (its navy performed very well).

The passage of this amendment would also be aimed at Estonia and the other Baltic States. It is clear Russia would only use its military against far weaker foes, so Russian "citizens" in Poland, Turkey, China and Finland probably should not hope for salvation from the motherland quite yet.

Meeting in Moscow

Image by eesti via Flickr

The meetings being held as I write in Moscow will decide how the US and Russia will deal with each other for rest of 2009 and perhaps beyond. The US wants Russia's help with Afghanistan, Iran and Palestine. Russia wants the US to draw back from Eastern Europe, Georgia and Central Asia. Both Russia and the US want to sign a successor treaty to START.

Russia has stated that the US can transport non-lethal and lethal materials over and perhaps on its territory for the Afghan effort. This will not come without a quid pro quo. The question is - what will the US give up? The BMD's in Poland will likely be postponed. The US will also likely agree to draw back a little on efforts to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. In the former, there is simply no strong desire and in the latter, the current government behaves too eratically to be considered an ally.

The BMD placement is really not a big deal since they are of questionable utility and Poland has just received significant military hardware from the US (50 F16) and will soon deploy Patriot missles as well. This will allow Poland to feel a little more secure and will satisfy Poland to the extent that it needs to at the moment. What else can the US give up? Very little, I would imagine, without damaging its credibility in Eastern Europe.

Ultimately, aside from a reduction in nuclear arsenals which both countries want, the geopolitical differences are not that flexible. I don't expect much to come out of the meeting other than a new START treaty, postponement of the BMDs and a temporary lull in the expansion of NATO.

Georgia, AES and Energy Development Programs

The BBC has an interesting TV program called Storyville which covers unusual or rare reports on issues that otherwise are not covered in great detail. Today I happened to tune in to the report on electricity supply in Georgia.

In 1999 the American firm AES won the tender to purchase the electrical distribution system in Georgia. This is not the same as buying the generation capacity which is owned separately and AES needs to pay for the power supplied to it. Thus, the payments by users, billed by AES, is critical to a viable and profitable operation. There is the rub. It is demonstrably not profitable and therefore not sustainable.

Development agencies such as USAID and EU programs have always emphasised the privatization of electrical distribution systems despite the fact that there has been no evidence that privatization, even through open bidding by seemingly knowledgeable private sector companies, would result in sustainable commercial companies. Tbilisi residents never had the money to pay the bills - especially the pensioners. With incomes around $30 - $50 per month the objective was to avoid the metering system (provided free, thank you very much) which could take as much as 50% of that income. AES would cut the power for non-payers, leaving many without light or television. AES, of course, needed to pay for the electricity it received, but considering the black hole of corruption in Georgia, the money it paid to those in charge of supply would disappear into the pockets of the energy ministry or other highly placed officials.

This is only one example. Armenia attempted the same with its distribution system - it did not work. The private sector built generation and distribution system in southern Tajikistan in Khorog fulfills the definition of bankrupt. In Khorog, the director of the facility was physically threatened when power was cut to homes. (Since I dealt with the firm which was owned by my employer at the time, it will go nameless).

There is the persistent idea that privatization of energy production, distribution or both in poverty rich nations like Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan, is the optimum solution. It has not worked and cutting off power to the poor is not an option. A different way forward for energy reform in poor countries needs to be developed. The backlash by ordinary people in Georgia against the US (AES is based in the US)because they live in darkness and can't afford the cost, does not benefit US foreign policy goals. Conversion of formally state run companies providing "free" public services, such as electricity, into for-profit firms needs a re-assessment.

Denying essential services to those who cannot afford to pay is not an option.

Russian War on Georgia

According to the AP Russia armour is now only 25 miles from Tbilisi. Last week 22 ships of the Black Sea Fleet steamed out of Sevastopol with a vanguard of troop landing ships. The stationing of troops outside of their zone as agreed upon with the EU is a dangerous situation and Russia clearly intends to eliminate the indepence of Georgia through military threats, if not an outright invasion.

The EU will protest and do nothing - just as it always has done. The US does not have the flexibility to intervene in any military way, nor should it. However, Russia desperately wants a new relationship with Washington and it should be made clear to Moscow that the "reset" button will indeed be reset if they invade.

Saakashvili must begin to negotiate a way out with the opposition which will likely mean his resignation. This might preclude a Russian invasion. He is ineffective as President of Georgia and provides Russia an excuse for invading. If he refuses to negotiate and expects help from either the EU or the US once Russian tanks start heading for Tbilisi, his sand castle will collapse and not only will Georgia cease to exist except as a province of Moscow, Russia will have full control of the oil pipeline in Georgia so as to maintain and increase its energy stranglehold on Europe.

Once Georgia is removed as an irritant, Russia will turn its attention to Ukraine which has elections coming in October. They have already illegally provided Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and have used that as a pretext before for military action.

It's reality check time. Russia is not an ally but an enemy of democracy and is reverting to its imperial ways.

Too much going on...plus Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Ukraine

I've been swamped with work in Ghana and events in Europe and Asia are cascading in ever increasing speed. However, I intend to get to it this weekend and we should be posting from Damascus and Baku shortly (reading this guys?).

First, there is Moldova where the recount confirmed the recent vote and victory for the Communist (sic) party by a hair and protests are likely to continue despite the outrage expressed by President Medvedev who really, really hates color revolutions. I find the offer of passports by Romania to 1 million Moldovans an interesting move - one that Russia uses to then follow up with an invasion to protect its "citizens". How far will Russia go with Moldova? Better - how far will Bucharest go?

Second, there is Georgia where protests are also likely to continue but may be bolstered by actual political alternatives to Saakashvili. Who will it be? What will he or she propose vis a vis Russia and NATO? Russia's dispatch of its entire Black Sea fleet this past week - with landing ships preceding the blue water craft and the rapid buildup in Abkhazia is meant as a threat. But to do what? The NATO exercise scheduled for early May has led to some hysterical statements coming out of Moscow. Perhaps the window of opportunity for Russia is closing a bit. Perhaps not. Saakashvili still needs to go but the opposition needs to have a leader and a plan of which there is absolutely no evidence so far.

Turkey and Armenia are shaking hands and Baku is stamping its foot like a spoiled child. Will the end of April see open borders? How will Russia react? How will Turkey handle the upcoming meetings with the EU regarding gas and oil supplies through Turkey? Is that why Putin and Gazprom are off to Bulgaria? Will Turkey risk Russian retaliation if it makes a deal with Armenia and pushes the Russians out?

Ukraine is, well, Ukraine. Will the IMF advance it the funds it needs to stabilize or continue to require unreasonable actions to reduce the budget deficit? They left Kyiv without saying. Will all the old guard need to die off before Ukrainian politicians serve their country more than themselves? Perhaps.

So...plenty to post about and as soon as I am out of the jungle in the Volta region of Ghana, I will.

Delusional Saakashvili

Saakashvili is now reaping the civil society whirlwind. Perhaps he now regrets all those civil society NGOs set up by USAID. Nevertheless, he must go and the organizers of the protests should understand this is not the Rose, Orange, Chestnut or whatever color one chooses, revolution. They too, had better have a plan beyond the resignation of Saakashvili - unless they actually are intent on the disintigration of Georgia.

Saakashvili, for his part, should begin by being less delusional. His interview with Newsweek, is short of understanding, long on self-pity and is not helpful. On the delusional front, there is this:

Who are your supporters in the U.S. today?
I have quite a few good contacts. Of course, my best friend was John McCain. You can say he is Georgian already. We expect McCain to come and visit us in a week or so. I have good relationships with Hillary Clinton, Joseph Biden and especially Richard Holbrooke—he is my teacher. I learned a lot of great things from him.

and this...


Do you feel that the West is disappointed with you? Have you been in touch with President Obama yet?
Oh, yes, I have talked to him on the phone. The problem is not about us—the problem is about their own internal politics. We have integrated into U.S. internal politics. So during the change of power, there was some sort of vacuum in America. Nobody knew what to do with us. Everybody, including France, was waiting for Obama's guideline on what to do about Georgia. I admire American ideas. I used to idealize America under Bush, when ideas were above pragmatic politics. Now it is a new time, when pragmatic politics are in charge of ideas. That might spoil the America I know.

He cannot really believe that 1) McCain has any power or credibility or leverage or 2) that Georgia has integrated into U.S. internal politics or 3) there was "some sort of vacuum in America" during the transition. France was certainly not waiting for Obama's guidleline on what to do about Georgia. He idealized America under Bush? Is this a joke? Where pragmatic politics are in charge of ideas now? Is that bad - especially in this case?

This man needs to go for the sake of Georgian independence. Now. It is time for the US to engage with the oposition.

Georgia, Moldova, Turkmenistan and Armenia

Except for Turkmenistan, the donor community has poured tens of millions of dollars into Georgia, Moldova and Armenia. For all the money, Moldova remains an economic basket case and Georgia is in entropy mode. Armenia may move away from the downward spiral it has been experiencing since the end of the 1993 war with Azerbaijan - but it won't have anything to do with the development aid it has received over those years. It will be because of changes in the geo-political make-up of the region, the rise of Turkey and a resurgent Russia intent on re-creating the Soviet Union.

Moldova is an interesting case because I recall a heavy emphasis - at the expense of economic and business support - on civil society programs. This was particularly the case with USAID whose local mission was in thrall to civil society. The problem with that is a poor household does not really care about civil society if it has little or no income or food. What is also surprising is for all intents and purposes, the current government won the election by a few points. They call themselves "communist" but in reality they are not. They simply have an un-reformed soviet style system - despite all that foreign aid - which lives up to its previous inefficiency. Moldova's biggest and unrecoverable mistake was seperating from Romania. The second problem is the Transdneister, that sliver of illegal, trafficking, blackmarket and gun-running dirt with its own unrecognized passport and thousands of Russian troops to protect it from Moldova, of which it is a part. The Transdneister problem is what keeps Moldova tied to Russia. No development aid that does not take that into consideration will succeed. Nor will it succeed without strong political will within the Moldovan government to change. That may require a change in the system.


Georgia - well, that's a different case. It is very clear that Saakashvili must go. It may be that his attempt to assert central government control over the break-away regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was partly due to his promise to the more nationalistic parties in Georgia to do so and thereby win the last election, but now comes the blow-back. It was never really important for Georgia to regain control of those two regions over which it has had no effective control for a decade. Even if Russia has overreached and concentrated the attention of Turkey and Azerbaijan on its newly imperial ambitions, Georgia is now in danger of disintegration as long as Saakashvili remains. If Georgia loses Batumi, then it loses its oil transit revenues. A graceful way out is needed and the opposition must come up with a plan for moving forward economically, socially and politically and not just have the removal of Saakashvili as its goal.

Turkmenistan has now accused Russia, through Gazprom, of blowing up its gas pipeline on the Uzbek border this week. That may well be true. It will be interesting to see how the gas war develops because Russia is determined to gain almost total control of gas resources either through production or lines. This is the real great game developing in the western areas of Central Asia.