and, speaking of Russia....and the ICJ

The recent advisory opinion by the ICJ regarding Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia will pose a problem for Moscow.  It's statements to the court may come back to haunt it.

Moscow stated that:

General international law prevents Kosovo from declaring independence, bearing in mind that the people of Kosovo do not enjoy a right to self-determination.

Russia rejects claims coming from those countries who support the unilateral declaration that international law "does not regulate independence declarations", and reminds that the UN Security Council declared Northern Cyprus and Rhodesia's independence to be illegal, since secession is forbidden outside the colonial context.

Violations of human rights of Albanians during the 1990s cannot be the justification for a unilateral declaration of independence in 2008.

Russia supported, to the extent of encouraging and sending troops to assist, breakaway regions of Georgia - Abkhasia and S. Ossetia.  At the time of Kosovo's declaration, Russia declared that acceptance would have consequences.  Many commentators pointed to the invasion of Georgia, ostensibly to protect the populations of Abkhasia and S. Ossetia from Georgian ethnic cleansing and prevent Georgia from reasserting central authority, as pay-back for Kosovo.

Yet the position that Russia's ambassador presented to the court does not reflect its positions regarding Georgian sovereignty and spells trouble for Chechnya and other non-Russian regions of the Federation.

It's first statement, that general international law does not allow Kosovar independence because the people have no right of self determination is not, in fact and law, true.  The court had previously decided in the case of East Timor that the right of self-determination exists in all circumstances under the fundamental principle of jus cogens - a principle of international law which is accepted by the international community as a norm from which no derogation is ever permitted.  Russia needs to consider the impact of this position on Chechnya.

The second point refers to a legal position that such unilateral declarations of independence can only be asserted within a colonial context.  This argument has been raised before, but has no general support in international law.  In any case, the advisory opinion distinguishes the Kosovo declaration as not an issue between nation states, but an internal matter which was triggered by the stripping of all of Kosovo's rights under the Yugoslav constitution under the Milosevic regime.  If Russia wants to pursue this position of independence only within a colonial context, how far back should we look?  Chechnya could, arguably, be considered a colonial possession, conquered and re-conquered several times in the  19th century by imperial Russia.  On the other hand, the Russian argument fails if applied to Abkhasia and S. Ossetia since they could not be considered colonies, ever, of Georgia.

Citing Rhodesia and Northern Cyprus in support of the illegality of the unilateral declaration of independence, Russia ignored the unique circumstances of each of those actions one of which involved the attempt to continue an oppressive colonial regime and the other which is political in nature. The political component is ignored by those, like Russia, who tend not to differentiate between the court's ruling which recognized the legality of the declaration as opposed to political recognition.  This is crucial for Cyprus, where the Greeks are opposing opening of any new chapters in EU accession talks for Turkey despite the commitment of the EU to do so based on the 2004 vote by Turkish Cypriots to reunite the island, while the Greeks voted it down. Only Turkey recognizes Northern Cyprus - a very similar situation to that faced by Russia in Abkhasia and S. Ossetia which have been recognized by Venezuela, Nicaragua and some insignificant island in the Pacific. Politically, it is unlikely that Northern Cyprus will be recognized as independent by anyone other than Turkey even if an argument can be made for legal recognition.

Kosovo is recognized, so far, by 69 countries, including the US, Germany and Turkey. Politics matters.  Citing Rhodesia and Northern Cyprus is an unwise legal position since both can be used to show the illegality of Abkhazia's and S. Ossetia's unilateral declarations.

Violation of human rights in the 1990s cannot be used as a reason for Independence in 2004 - the next argument put forward by Russia.  However, the court did not rely on the violation of human rights as the basis of its decision. Rather, it pointed to the stripping of constitutional rights granted to other regions of Yugoslavia - a position successfully put forward by Croatia.  Conversely, violation of human rights is precisely the argument used by Russia to inject troops in support of the Abkhazian and S. Ossetian independence movements. 

Despite the frequent admonitions that Kosovo is a unique situation and not precedent - admonitions made by Russia, Turkey (with it's eye on the Kurds in northern Iraq), the UK, US and Germany (in recent statements in Cyprus), it will be used as precedent.  But it will be politics, not international law that will govern the outcome.

Moscow's Abkhazia and South Ossetia Problem

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Despite my normal misgivings about Ukraine’s changing foreign policy positions toward Russia and the West – none of which is surprising since Russia is next door and has all the leverage – their Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko has said that the Yanukovych administration has no plans to recognize an independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Citing the sanctity of borders as the reason, Kyiv has now joined Minsk in refusing, so far, to bow to Moscow’s need to have some other countries aside from the diplomatic coups of getting Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru (look it up) to recognize both break-away regions of Georgia.

How long Belarus will keep up its in-your-face attitude with Russia is an open question. They have welcomed former president Bakiyev of the Kyrgyz Republic, a less than popular decision in the Kremlin, and have also refused recognition of Georgia’s lost regions. The same is true for Kyiv, which may be realizing that its balancing act with Europe would be damaged by recognition. Moscow has a problem, which may account for its less aggressive tone lately as it tries to attract Western investment.

Russia Strikes it BIG

Russia has succeeded in convincing the guano capital of the planet, if not the galaxy, to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. It only cost Russia's treasury a paltry $50 Million USD to the island nation of Nauru for it to cave in to the tidal wave of support for the two Russian created regions.

It is unknown what the nation's 11,320 citizens think of this monumental decision by their country which will soon be ratified by Nauru's parliament. Lavrov must have really worked hard to achieve this diplomatic coup right under the nose of the West. I'm sure that the Kremlin will now put the unlimited supply of bird droppings their money has purchased to good use.

Russia and the WTO

Russia has pursued a policy of creating an alternate universe, politically and economically, in a strangely confrontational manner. The recent withdrawal from WTO talks, coupled with the veto of the OSCE mission in the Caucuses confirms that it has no fundamental intention of cooperating with any organization or country that it considers a threat to its goal of reasserting its hold on what used to be termed its "near abroad".

This may be a mistake of huge proportions in the long term. It faces competition from China in Central Asia and in Europe, Putin's aggressive stance has been only successful in the short-term. The EU is now painfully aware that it's dependence on Russian energy is a serious problem since Russia is very willing to use it as a weapon to achieve its foreign policy goals. But, Nabucco will now go forward, China has just concluded a huge deal for gas with Turkmenistan and although Norway's recent discovery of a potentially huge reserve of natural gas will not come on-line for years, the short-term gains achieved so far by Moscow will be remembered in the long-term.

The recognition by Russia of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, accompanied by Lavrov's assertion that the world needs to accept "new realities", has focused the attention of the Baltic States and Poland (perhaps even Belarus) that Russian foreign policy as applied to its neighbors is not benign.

Withdrawal from WTO negotiations seems particularly gratuitous since membership has been a goal of Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. To tell the world that Moscow is the center of a new, multi-polar world in which the Russian Federation can do anything it wants within its sphere of influence will backfire. It's economy is not strong and would benefit by WTO membership, which might force it to broaden its economy beyond energy. It is surrounded by political and economic competitors who do belong to the WTO and are not inclined to accept Russian leadership.

Russian positioning is not earning it any friends, much less partners. Putin - and he is fooling no one - is in charge. Medvedev is a messenger. The message to Russia's neighbors is to tow the line or suffer the consequences - mostly economic, but with the threat of military intervention. Coupled with the death of anything that could remotely be defined as "democratic" makes the region, ultimately, less stable.

Belarus and Russia

I'm not quite sure what to make of this (Russian only version of Belarus Today) but it seems as if President Lukashenko is a little miffed at the Kremlin.

In the article, he rejects an apparent attempt by Moscow to try and intimidate it by withholding about $500 million Belarus had been promised over the fact that his government has not recognized as independent countries the breakaway regions of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). He then goes on to imply that an attempt to interfere with the independence of Belarus would result in another Chechnya.

President Lukashenko has always been somewhat strange, but this sudden burst of nationalistic fervor directed at Russia deserves watching.