Russia Legislates Unilateral Intervention

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The Russian Duma recently passed its first reading of a new amendment to its Law on Defense. Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with defense, but a great deal to do with military intervention in its sphere of influence. If enacted (and there is no doubt that the Duma, as ever, will pull out its rubber stamp) the amendment provides for using its military to "protect" Russian citizens outside its borders. History recalls that the Nazi regime in Germany used exactly that pretext for invasion.

Russia has a proclivity handing out passports to citizens of foreign countries. Guess what the reason was for the invasion of Georgia? Leaving aside the unwise provocations by the Georgian government, this is a dangerous new trend in Russian foreign policy and could easily be applied to Ukraine. Russia has handed out thousands of passports to its supporters in Crimea.

It would be unfortunate if Russia resorted to its military again, particularly against Ukraine which, despite a pathetic military, is no Georgia. Additionally, Russia's military is hardly an efficient fighting force having been embarrassed on the ground and in the air in the Georgia conflict (its navy performed very well).

The passage of this amendment would also be aimed at Estonia and the other Baltic States. It is clear Russia would only use its military against far weaker foes, so Russian "citizens" in Poland, Turkey, China and Finland probably should not hope for salvation from the motherland quite yet.

Russia and the WTO

Russia has pursued a policy of creating an alternate universe, politically and economically, in a strangely confrontational manner. The recent withdrawal from WTO talks, coupled with the veto of the OSCE mission in the Caucuses confirms that it has no fundamental intention of cooperating with any organization or country that it considers a threat to its goal of reasserting its hold on what used to be termed its "near abroad".

This may be a mistake of huge proportions in the long term. It faces competition from China in Central Asia and in Europe, Putin's aggressive stance has been only successful in the short-term. The EU is now painfully aware that it's dependence on Russian energy is a serious problem since Russia is very willing to use it as a weapon to achieve its foreign policy goals. But, Nabucco will now go forward, China has just concluded a huge deal for gas with Turkmenistan and although Norway's recent discovery of a potentially huge reserve of natural gas will not come on-line for years, the short-term gains achieved so far by Moscow will be remembered in the long-term.

The recognition by Russia of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, accompanied by Lavrov's assertion that the world needs to accept "new realities", has focused the attention of the Baltic States and Poland (perhaps even Belarus) that Russian foreign policy as applied to its neighbors is not benign.

Withdrawal from WTO negotiations seems particularly gratuitous since membership has been a goal of Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. To tell the world that Moscow is the center of a new, multi-polar world in which the Russian Federation can do anything it wants within its sphere of influence will backfire. It's economy is not strong and would benefit by WTO membership, which might force it to broaden its economy beyond energy. It is surrounded by political and economic competitors who do belong to the WTO and are not inclined to accept Russian leadership.

Russian positioning is not earning it any friends, much less partners. Putin - and he is fooling no one - is in charge. Medvedev is a messenger. The message to Russia's neighbors is to tow the line or suffer the consequences - mostly economic, but with the threat of military intervention. Coupled with the death of anything that could remotely be defined as "democratic" makes the region, ultimately, less stable.