Moscow Metro Murders

The appalling terrorist attacks in Moscow yesterday morning need to be loudly condemned. However, if indeed these murders were committed by Chechen insurgents, as appears very likely, the Russian response should not be more violence against Chechnya of which there has been more than enough since 1994. A different approach is needed to isolate the extremists.

In 1995 while living in Moscow, a close friend, extremely Westernized and who eventually went on to be a reporter for a major Western newspaper, admitted that her feelings about Chechnya were to put fence around it and its people and let it suffocate. That feeling is likely to intensify now. It would be a mistake to translate such an emotion, arising from the first Chechen War launched by Yeltsin, into policy.

Perhaps a first step would be for Moscow - and especially PM Putin - to take another look at the criminal, murdering thug that was put in charge in Grozny. Ramzan Kadyrov is, quite simply, a lunatic who has showered his own people with terror, advocated a second Russian invasion of Georgia, a new invasion of Ukraine and otherwise calls on Russia to "liquidate" the threats that Ukraine and Georgia represent to Russia.

Prime Minister Putin put him in charge. A change of leadership in Chechnya might be a place to start to isolate the murderers on the metro and eventually destroy their ability to function. It's not as if Putin doesn't call the shots.

Dagestan Rebel Funding and Russia

An Agence France Press Report published in Hurriyet on Saturday reported on a Russian news broadcast that Dagestan rebels were being financed by supporters in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. Interesting that Georgia was included in an otherwise Islamic country list and may be just gratuitous, although Georgia does have at its disposal some very wealthy individuals. Georgia also has some justifiable grievances against Russia. Nevertheless, this appears to be part of a growing Kremlin campaign to solidify and set the stage for extending its position in the Caucuses even if it is a legend. But,even if true, the distinction made between funding by a country and its citizens does not change the Russian paranoia of foreign interference in an attempt to dismantle or neuter the Federation. Last week, for example, the Kremlin's installed leader of Chechnya called for the liquidation of Ukraine and Georgia referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union as foreign sponsored.

Putin may be using these statements to gauge public and international reactions. An adverse, reaction would allow the Kremlin to disavow any reported plans and distance itself from the 'liquidation' remarks made by the murderer currently in charge in Chechnya. However, regardless, these statements seem to be warning to Turkey and Azerbaijan not to press their foreign policies too independently in the Caucuses.

As I suggested in my post below, Russia will seek to solidify and expand its control over the Caucuses in the coming year. Saturday was the first stage - control the message.

Coming Apart in the North Caucuses?

Image by Thomas Roche via Flickr

The BBC reports that human rights activists and opposition politicians are now calling the unrest in Ingushetia as a civil war. The President of the republic has been seriously wounded in a bomb blast that killed his bodyguard.

Medvedev and Putin may have a messy problem on their hands after calling the uprisings in neighboring Chechnya over. Russian security forces have responded in the usual manner - heavy-handed and repressive.

Historically, it took the Russian Empire about 150 years to subdue the northern Caucuses. They never really won...