Medvedev's Shot Across the Bow of the SS Putin

Al Jazeera is reporting as I sit here that President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia could face civil war or stagnation if too much power was concentrated in the hands of one man, an apparent jibe at the prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

 

Keep in mind that there is a presidential vote in March 2012.  Neither has announced, but it is beginning to look like a showdown.

 

Here's the money quote in response to a question about parliamentary democracy:

"An excessive concentration of power is indeed a dangerous thing: it has happened in this country many times and as a rule it has either led to stagnation or civil war.

We must not allow that. Attempts to build up power to fit a certain individual are dangerous. If they do not cause trouble today, you must not doubt that they will cause great problems for the country and for the individual in the not-too-distant future. We must think about this and remember the lessons of history."

This is the second veiled attack. The first came earlier this year, when Mr Medvedev slapped down Mr Putin for criticising western military intervention in Libya and then ordered Putin allies to leave the boards of state companies such as Rosneft.

Is Russia becoming interesting again?

The Kremlin vs Minsk

Image via Wikipedia

There is a fierce war of words erupting between the former state farm directory President Lukashenko of Belarus and President Medvedev and PM Putin of Russia.  Medvedev has harshly criticised Lukashenko of Russia-bashing in his re-election campaign.  In a video blog entry posted on the Kremlin web site on Sunday, Medvedev accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of trying to cast Russia as his nation's main enemy while running for re-election. 

The economic union among Belarus, Russian and Khazakhstan has been delayed for more than six months.  There are numerous reasons for this, including the global economic crises. But also figuring into the equation is Russian's aggressive expansion at the expense of Georgia, bullying of Ukraine with threats that the same type of independence movement could strike in the Crimea, and the suspicion that it engineered  the coup in the Kyrgyz Republic.  All this has made countries like Belarus - regardless of its less than democratic government - move closer to the EU in terms of cooperation. It has not helped Lukashenko's position in the Kremlin that Belarus has refused to recognize S. Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent of Georgia, thereby joining the ranks of Venezuela, Nicaragua and some tiny atoll in the Pacific.

Lukashenko has oppositon, but it is usually not effective.  The question is if Moscow will throw its weight, overtly, behind any other contender for the thrown of Minsk.  The last time they did that, their man in Kyiv went down to defeat and they have failed miserably in Georgia trying to unseat their least favourite president.

Russia's Problem

It did not take long for President Medvedev and PM Putin to reveal that the veneer of success portrayed in the press on the meetings in Moscow with President Obama is just that - a veneer. That veneer was scraped off as President Medvedev announced on July 10 that Russia will deploy short range missiles in Kaliningrad aimed at Warsaw if the BMD deployment in Poland by the US goes forward.

Clearly, the refusal by the United States to discuss either the deployment of the BMD system or Russia's claim of a sphere of influence over its neighbors is a deep annoyance to Putin, who cancelled his attendance at a gala in the Kremlin, resulting in a similar cancellation by President Obama.

As I have posted earlier, the interests of Russia and the United States are not at all similar. Russia wants US and European influence restricted, if not eliminated, in bordering regions. It would be a mistake for the US to accede to Russian desires. Although the BMD system deployment could, and likely should be cancelled, more positioning of US assets in Poland and the Baltic States would be more effective in focusing Russia's attention on the distrust it has cultivated in its near-abroad, Europe and the US.

The problem with Russia is that it does nothing but "oppose" by throwing up roadblocks to any movement toward settlement of issues in key areas of the world - Palestine, Iran, Georgia and Central Asia. This proclivity to create, rather than solve problems, represents the actions of a weak and paranoid state. For it to keep thrusting itself on the political stage as a world power equal to China, the EU or the US is absurd for a variety of economic and social reasons.

Although it deserves respect, Russia's inability to propose solutions other than those masquerading as such but which are always solely targeted at expanding its political sphere of influence, preclude reasonable dialogue at this time.

A Week Hiaitus

I'm back after a quiet week and celebrating the 4th at Spartak Stadium in Kyiv. Today President Obama is in Moscow. This is going to be interesting.