Ukraine as Client State - Eggs in a Basket

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Today's election in Ukraine will not produce a clear winner and if Tymoshenko can hold on to a gap with Yanukovitch of no more than 15% then she has the chance to win on the February 7 runoff. After today, Yuschenko will be history and will forever regret the lost opportunities of 2004 and 2005.

He will regret his misplaced magnanimity in allowing Kuchma, Yanukovich and their allies to remain free. He will regret his weak responses to corruption and inefficiency. He will regret not forcefully reminding the EU and the United States what exactly was at stake. By Sunday night he will be retired.

Ukraine will have lost largely because of the apathy and disinterest in the youth and middle class over the past five years and not the failure of its politicians, which are legion. Nothing has struck me more than the "I don't care" attitude of the young and not so young. They will have much to regret as well during the next decade as any sort of democratic rule will be absorbed within the Russian standard of single party rule, a crushed media and subservience to Moscow as a client state.

None of the leading candidates can now forge an independent road for Ukraine. They are all tied to Russia and Russia has no intention of ever letting go again. It does not matter if Tymoshenko or Yanukovich is president. One will be and the other will be Prime Minister and Russia will have won completely. The eggs are indeed now in one basket.

This is an enormous strategic victory for Moscow as it really cannot wield world wide influence without Ukraine as an integral and controlled part. After February 7, it will be able to focus fully on its periphery, which is why the NATO commitment to the Baltics and Poland, is key to containing a resurgent Russian Union which has no free media, no fair elections and murders its political critics with impunity.

Let the Games Begin - The Race for President in Ukraine

Well, it has begun. As reported in Hurriyet the campaign to take over the weak position of President of Ukraine has achieved lift-off. Yulia Tymoschenko held a large rally and lambasted Yuschenko.

I can't say I'm particularly interested in who wins - it won't be Yuschenko - but it would be a tragedy for the election to go to Yanukovich. So I guess I'm for Yulia.

Ukraine

Image by Te55 via Flickr

A couple of friends have emailed me and asked why I have not posted anything recently about Ukraine.

OK. Elections are scheduled for January 18. Nobody cares.

There is nothing else.

Happy?

Third Time a Charm in Moldova?

Yesterday, the Moldovan parliament failed to appoint a president for the second time. By one vote. The immediate result of these failures to approve acting Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii of the Communist Party as president will be a new election 45 days after the compulsory dissolution of parliament.

The last election was immediately followed by opposition protests that quickly turned violent despite OSCE monitors' reports that the election was free and fair. Although the outgoing president Voronin has accused Romania of supporting and funding the opposition and the protests, no proof has been profered.

Russia is keenly interested in the outcome of the power struggle in Moldova as it has a firm hold on what is essentially a criminal regime in the breakaway region of Transdniestria. Transdniester is on the left bank of the Dniester. It proclaimed its status as a republic in September 1990 and declared its independence in August 1991, at the same time as Moldova. It is supported by the present Russian government much as Russia supports South Ossetia and Abkhazia - although unlike the latter two regions, Russia has never recognized the independence of Transdniestria. That may be next.

Russian foreign policy in Europe is to prevent any further rollback of its influence and to extend that influence where possible. If Romania succeeds in pulling Moldova out of Russia's sphere of influence, then Transdniestria becomes untenable; but it is unlikely that it will ever rejoin Moldova and will continue as transit center for illegal arms, human trafficking and drugs.

Despite vast sums of money spent by the EU, World Bank, the Swiss and USAID, Moldova remains outside Europe. As the Czech Ambassador Pyotr Kupr said recently, he is doing his best to bring Moldova closer to Europe. He has been only modestly successful. "People are interested in foreigners when it comes to making a profit. They do not think like Europeans. There is no civil society, no independent mass media... There is only so much one can do on the micro level."

The fact that there is has been little to no success in developing civil society or an independent media in Moldova after so many years and so much money expended by international organizations is evidence that the development community is either doing something terribly wrong or the Moldovan people don't care. Or both. So why are the aid agencies continuing with the very same programs they have funded over the past 15 years?

A new election may end the control of the only democratically elected Communist government in Europe and begin to turn wheels of change. How much capital will Romania and Russia be willing to expend to either fulfill this result or oppose it?