Another Win for Yanukovych and Russia - Europe is Next

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The government of Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko was dismissed today after a no-confidence vote passed with 243 of the 450-member parliament. The work now begins for Victor to form a new majority coalition. It needs to be remembered that individuals don't count in coalitions - only the parties as a group.

Party of Regions is the largest party in the parliament with 172 seats. To form a majority, PoR needs another 55 seats and Yanukovych has 30 days to do it. If he can -and that will not be easy - he will have another 60 days to create a new government for approval by the parliament. Yanukovych’s 172 seats, in addition to the Communist Party (27 seats) and Lytvyn (20 seats) are not enough to provide the required 226 seat majority - only 219. Close but no cigar. A minority is not permittd to nominate a PM.

The other blocs are the former Prime Minister's BYuT and the former President's Our Ukraine. It is very unlikely that these blocs will enter any coalition with Yanukovych, although not impossible.

If Yanukovych can't pull of a new majority, he will have to call a snap election. A new election is probably not what the MPs want because it is likely that Lytvn's bloc and Our Ukraine will be wiped out. What to do? What to do?

At this point, however, this is yet another win for Russia, and the changes have begun. Today as well, the head of the energy firm Naftogaz, Oleh Dubyna, was dismissed. Dubyna was a close ally of Yulia Timoshenko and of Viktor Yushchenko. Naftogaz management has been a target for Russia. This is the beginning of a purge to oust key people of whom the Kremlin doesn't approve or are connected to either Tymoshenko or Yushchenko. The metals industry will be on that list.

Aside from consolidating its gains in the Caucuses, Central Asia and Ukraine, Russia is now turning its attention to the dismantling of NATO, beginning with France and Germany.

Germany is already in thrall to Russia, both economically and to leverage its power within the EU. Almost completely dependent on the Kremlin for energy, the German government will show no willingness to challenge Russian actions in the Caucuses, including the overthrow of the Georgian government, or in Eastern Europe.

France, apparantly, is eager to sell modern, non-defensive weapons systems, like the Mistral, to Russia and threw a party for Medvedev in Paris this week. Surely noted in Tbilisi, Warsaw and the Baltic States was Medvedev's and Sarkozy's comments as reported here.

Russia and France took their courtship to a new level in Paris on Monday, entering talks about the sale of four French warships to Moscow, standing together against nuclear-minded Iran and urging a new global financial order.

A key business deal signed during Medvedev's pomp-filled visit Monday - giving France's GDF Suez a 9-percent stake in the Nord Stream gas pipeline project run by Russia's Gazprom - runs counter to efforts by U.S. and other European countries to lessen Europe's dependence on Russian pipelines and gas.

Medvedev, noting that French investment in Russia last year surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, said, "That means we are on the right track." He urged French investors to help modernize the Russian economy Tuesday as the two countries' build major new energy, transport and even military partnerships. Addressing an audience of powerful business leaders from Russia and France on the second day of a visit to Paris, the Kremlin chief hailed what he said was an "unprecedented" economic partnership. "It is impossible to imagine relations between Russia and France without economic ties," he said at the French employers' association MEDEF, calling for Russian and French firms to buy stakes in one another.

"This truly strengthens relations," he said, inviting French investors to a economic forum in St Petersburg in June, where he hopes their expertise will "give the Russian economy an opportunity to adapt to modern life."

Medvedev hailed Sarkozy's "courage and will" when he sought to negotiate an end to Russia's war with neighboring Georgia in 2008. He said NATO - an alliance that Russia views as a U.S.-driven vestige of the Cold War - was no help in ending that war, but that European partners were. "What does this show? This shows that we ourselves should solve European issues," Medvedev said. Sarkozy said, "France defended the interests of Europe. ... We did it without using our army, we did it without threats."

Sarkozy seems to think that he defended European interests in mediating the war between Russia and Georgia. He defended France's interests, not Europe's. And, he has conveniently forgotten that Russia has not complied with key requirments that it agreed to in the settlement document, such as removal of forces. It is, in fact, building new bases.

Again, the free hand being delivered to Moscow is a direct result of the Iraq adventure, the continuing Afghan war, the economic recession in the US and its obsession with Iran. Regarding the latter, it is time to start assessing the options.

Attacking Iran is, to be blunt, stupid. There are simply too many variables and the inevitable instability in Iraq, disruption of oil from the Gulf and asymetrical attacks from Iran's allies in the Middle East, make that decision - however much the worst.Israeli.government.in.history wants it - impossible. The other option is accepting a nuclear Iran. The third option is something else. It involves looking at overlapping and more important interests.

Nixon to China.

Ukrainian Elections Round 1

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Despite yesterday's post about the end of Ukraine as an independent state for all practical purposes, the election remains interesting in that it truly appears to be an exercise in free voting without the rigging, abuse of administrative powers and other manipulative excesses that were so transparent in 2004. That, I guess, says something about the candidates at the top, as well as for Victor Yuschenko. Russia could take some lessons.

With Yanukovych heading for about a 35% win and Tymoshenko 10 points behind, the February run-off is by no means assured for Yanukovych. The trading and promises are about to begin and the 35% really represents the limit of his popularity. Perhaps he can strip off another 5% - 7% from other parties, like the Communist Party, but I believe he would be pushing the edge of the envelope if he does so. I can't go as far to say that he will lose to Yulia, but the possibility is there and I give her more than an even chance of negotiating better deals and getting the 50% +1.

Dreams and Reality in Ukraine

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I normally don't write very much about Ukraine any longer because the political and economic environment is in shambles. But, in what may be the strangest combination of rose colored glasses and stark reality was the statement today by President Victor Yushchenko: "I will win the election, and if not, it is not a tragedy"

From the Orange Revolution hope on Maidan to single digit poll numbers, the squandered opportunities are legion. Meanwhile, Speaker of the Rada, Volodymir Lytvyn, said that there would be no opposition to Yulia Tymoshenko should she be elected, but there would be if Victor Yanakuvich won.

Almost a Greek tragedy.

Biden in Ukraine

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As reported in Hurriyet, V.P. Biden breezed through town yesterday and gave a speech at Ukrainian House where he pointed out the obvious to Ukrainians - that their politicians put personal gain ahead of the nation's interests.

Since about 2005, as the alliance among the Orange Revolution participants began to unravel, the personal political ambitions of the leaders, including opposition leader and perennial presidential hopeful Victor Yanukovych, have trumped Ukrainian national interests. The apathy in Ukraine as to their political leadership is palpable. So, V.P. Biden's correct observation and admonition to, essentially, grow up, may fall on deaf ears.

He also met with all the potential and declared presidential candidates, which, I assume, was to get a read on their positions regarding NATO, the EU, Russia and energy issues. The pity is that the newest and freshest candidate, Arseniy Yatsenyuk pictured here, probably has no chance. It will come down between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. President Yushchenko is dead last in the polls and approaching negative support at 2%.

The Hurriyet article makes a strange statement at the end which is not supported by any facts that "Biden leaves Ukraine later today for Georgia, another post-Soviet country with strong NATO ambitions..." The vast majority of Ukrainians do not support NATO membership.