How's that Hanging Working Out?

Hang, Hung, Hanged.

As the elections in Britain have resulted in an increasingly amazing kabuki dance among the Tories, LibDems and Labour, issues regarding the thrust of its international policies have become far murkier than a result of a clear victory by either Labour or the Tories would have produced.


The LibDems never had a chance of claiming a victory simply because the voting system is not proportional – a reason they are now negotiating with both the Conservative and Labour parties to form a loose alliance, in the case of the former or formal coalition in the case of the latter. Whichever party promises electoral reform gets the LibDems and a wins a cookie. Increasingly, that looks like Labour which is, in any event, closer philosophically to the LibDems on almost all issues, including attitudes toward Brussels. Nevertheless, the Tories did receive the largest vote and can credibly argue that they are entitled to form a government – minority or otherwise - and subsequently snub everyone across the Channel.

The debates touched on foreign policy issues in general and the EU in particular. David Cameron clearly would have pushed for a far more arms-length relationship, if that is possible. The current financial crises in the EU has only have buttressed the Conservative party position that the UK should not be under the thumb of the bureaucrats in Brussels or, not to put too fine a point on it, Berlin.

Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown are far closer in their positions regarding working with, or rather within, the EU. The ties with Brussels might be closer under a coalition government led by Labour but wagged by the LibDems; but, even this scenario is likely to be strikingly adjusted as a result of the negative public view regarding the EU’s stunningly discordant handling of the Greek financial melt-down, with its still vast potential for unravelling entirely and spreading rapidly. My guess is that the Labour-LibDem foreign policy position, should they form a “coalition of losers” as many Conservative MPs are characterizing this potential marriage of convenience, will be closer to David Cameron’s and the Tories than the LibDems’. In that case, relations with Brussels will enter a period of drift until the next election.
UK foreign policy regarding the US, Russia and China will remain the same under a Labour-Lib-Dem coalition – in other words Whitehall will continue to be largely ignored by the US except for Afghanistan, Russia will gradually enter the realm of polite discussion away from the children lest they be frightened and China will remain on the distant horizon of concerns.

Only one thing is certain. This will be the last of the old, first-past-the-post elections as the voters won’t tolerate a government with 36% support to have 150% of the power.

Conservative Minority Government

Polls in England are showing an increasing likelyhood that the Tories will grab a little over 300 seats.  Sound like a lot?  Well, actually, yes and no.  It is certainly short of the 326 needed to have a majority.  But, it is not so short that they couldn't form a minority government simply  because Labour and the Liberals together could not reach a majority.  Thus, it seems increasingly likely that my absolute judgement a few days ago that the Conservatives would win a majority may - I repeat - may have been a mistake. 

A minority government wouldn't last a quarter, which means another election.  That would leave policy - economic and foreign - in limbo.  If the Tories could take the 326 seats, then attitudes toward the eurozone would change and the EU can forget about closer ties. The EU response to Greece - led by the Germans - has not been wildly successful. That alone helps the Conservative position that the UK can be part of the EU but not controlled by it (or, shall we say, Germany). A full blown Conservative win will be a blow to the EU - not that it is undeserved.  Coupled with the mess that the Greeks have managed to conjure up and the potential fall of Spain and Portugal, a Conservative win might require Brussels to rethink its economic and political positions.

Still a day or two, however, to go.

Hiatus - sort of...

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The postings will be rare in the next ten days as I have some rather overwhelming matters to deal with at work.  I'll try and post during the next week on a number of items including the change of direction in Ukraine, internal threat to Georgia, the election in the UK (I predict a Conservative majority - no hung Parliament - but David is no Winston) and the crises of the Eurozone.