Friday, January 1, 2010


And off we go.

In the 1st year of the next decade (yeah, yeah, I know - it really starts in 2011. Well, that's not the common usage, so live with it.) I'll indulge in a couple of predictions.

Prediction 1 - The last free and fair election in Ukraine will be in January if Yanukovich wins so he can fulfill his threat to end "democracy".

Prediction 2 - The new Russian empire will expand and consolidate its hold on Central Asia, Ukraine and the South Caucuses.

Prediction 3 - The US will increase its military footprint in the Baltics and Poland to counter the newly imperial Russia.

Prediction 4 - Turkey will flex its newly found military, economic and (most importantly) cultural muscle in the Middle East, most of the time against the wishes of the US and Israel.

Prediction 5 - Iran will continue to experience shocks to its social system with a concomitant reduction in its ability to interfere abroad until it reaches a tipping point - at which time they will do something stupid.

Prediction 6 - There will be a ground assault on Somali pirates.

Prediction 7 - The "surge" in Afghanistan will not achieve its intended goals, and the Afghan military will continue to be the phantom army of the 21st century.

Prediction 8 - Political relations between Germany and the US will continue their slide as Germany becomes more reliant on Russia for energy and trade.

Prediction 9 - The Israeli government will continue its illegal construction activities on Palestinian land despite international condemnation and new fighting will erupt between Hezbollah and Israel.

Prediction 10 - All the previous predictions will change as the inevitable chaos theory takes over.

Welcome to the next decade.

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