Tymoshenko Re-groups

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So there is no deal. Yulia Tymoshenko is not resigning and is going to fight in the Rada. The maneuvering has already begun.

Victor Yanukovych has said that by the end of the week he will form a new parliamentary majority. This would allow him to dismiss the PM and anoint her successor. If he cannot form a majority then he is in trouble. Meanwhile, ByUT - Yulia's party - has called for an early session of the Rada on the 24th. Can Victor put together his majority by March 2 - the last day for forming a government - if Yulia starts organizing first? That will be hard, particularly if Yulia can bring together 226 members of the 450 person Rada under her wing - which would prevent a vote of no-confidence and her dismissal. If she cannot then ByUT will go into opposition. Neither alternative is going to be helpful to the new president. And he is showing signs of intense worry.

We are holding coalition talks with absolutely all parliamentary groups...

Yanukovych said this yesterday in an interview on channel 1+1.


On March 2 either Yulia will be dismissed or Yanukovich is going to have to consider a coalition with ByUT, a very, very unpalatable option for him. Or - he can order a snap parliamentary election.

Tymoshenko is going to be repairing all her burnt bridges to hold together her coalition and the government - where the real power rests. Holding on to that will mean control of the budget, economic policies, the corporate sector and even most of the security forces.

It's easy to see, therefore, why Yanukovych is pressing hard because if he loses this battle a PM, who despises him and his party and who never, ever forgets, will doom his presidency. Stay tuned.