Thursday, February 11, 2010

Ukraine. What now?

Yulia TymoshenkoImage via Wikipedia

For those who said that a Yanukovich victory would produce stability - a more important commodity than, say, democracy for many - well, how's that going?

The OSCE has pronounced the election
free and fair
for the most part. They should stop there and not take up (as they have done) the additional position that Yulia Tymoshenko should shut up and go away so that the government can be formed and Ukraine can move forward. The OSCE should know better since this is likely the last election of its sort that will take place as Yanukovich is very likely to do what Putin did to Russia and Yukoshenko did to Belarus. And with Russian assistance. Just sayin...

One of the options that is open to Tymoshenko is refusing to resign as PM and forcing a snap parliamentary election. I can't see her doing that unless negotiations fail utterly. Ukrainian politics is typically strident on the outside and negotiable on the inside. All the rhetoric from both sides - admittedly a little more from BYUT - is the cover for the internal negotiations.

Today, the situation became a little more complex with Our Ukraine saying it does not support her resignation. That gives her more leverage for a deal as she continues to demand a recount because Yanukovich has to negotiate in such a case - he can't form a government under the current split between Regions/Communist Parties and BYUT/OU-PSD and their respective allies. So much for stability.

Tymoshenko, under these circumstances, probably won't call new elections because it is likely that Our Ukraine - not her ally but who loath Regions in general and Yanukovich in particular - would lose all their seats (although most would go to her party - but not all).

The noise - studiously reported as fact by the Western media - hides the underlying maneuvering. I give it another week to sort itself out. As Radar O'Reilly used to say -
wait for it

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