Thursday, April 15, 2010

Civil War in the Kyrgyz Republic

I am at a loss why Russian President Medvedev suggested that civil war was near in the Kyrgyz Republic (the official name by the way - I'm looking at you CNN - oh, and while am at it
CNN Ukraine is simply Ukraine - not "the" Ukraine unless you like "the" France or "the" Italy - it's not a province of Russia any longer!).  I digress.

In any event, the only reason Medvedev could possibly have thought to bring this up was to increase the possibility of an offer to send Russian peacekeepers. Just like the TransDniester and South Ossetia and Abkhazia.


Civil war is nearly impossible.  The stronghold of the ex-president and his first-son is in the south -specifically in Jalal' abad with a population of 12 and several chickens.  (OK, it's really around 70,000 people but I stand by my chicken count - I saw them). Osh is Uzbek and Bakiyev will have little support there. The north and south a seperated by a small range of mountains exceeding 4000 meters. It becomes hard to get at each others' throats with that type of barrier.  In the middle lies Naryn - the Kyrgyz heartland. They are not about to side with Bakiyev et al.

Medvedev is being the set-up man for intervention. Again.  I suggest that he look to his own backyard in the North Caucuses before expanding military adventures on questionable efforts. He's in Washington now. Perhaps he has heard of Iraq and Afghanistan? He can talk about adventures.

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