Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Libya in Flux

Libya is in total chaos with both sides behaving without coherence.  Qaddafi's speeches are even more rambling and devoid of reality than a week ago - if that's possible.  Just this afternoon three jets of his personal Falcon 900 jets took off in 3 different directions - apparently to Vienna, Cairo and Athens.  No one knows the purpose.  Now claiming that underage youth from Afganistan, Egypt and Palestine are behind the "minor" revolts and then blaming the UK, France and the US for the unrest, he is clearly nuts.

Then, there is the question of a no-fly zone.  Both Senators Lieberman (remember him?)and McCain are promoting the idea in an effort to seem relevant. Except for those who learned nothing from the US adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, this is a high risk proposal. Aside from the political consequences of Western powers taking sides or even moving militarily in Libya, there is the very likely chance that a stray missile or bullet will kill civilians.  One hit on the oil refinery at Ras Januf could cause an explosion that would wipe out everything for 15 kilometers. When that happens, the anger will be turned on the saviours. It is not as easy as it seems.

No one knows how the revolts in Libya will turn out.  Qaddafi's forces are striking back hard. This could go on for some time yet and rushing to do something could be worse - far worse - than doing nothing.

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