Long Hiatus

We've been absent for almost 8 months.  This is due to two factors.

1.  The subjects that we normally address are becoming repetitive largely because of the apparently insatiable appetite of governments and people for doing the same thing over and over in anticipation that the results will be different.  They won't be and frankly, we are tired of talking about them.  A word to academics who believe that their writings and opinions will be adopted by their intended targets: don't hold your breath.

2.  We are actually busy with actual work trying to impact lives on the ground outside of the grand, time constrained projects conducted by most of the big donors.

So, check back once in a while and we might have time to post.  Take a look at the company web site - www.vesselkaconsult.com - follow us on LinkedIn and let us know how we can help you.

Elliot Abrams - Glass House - Throwing Stones

Shorter Elliot Abrams (former Secretary of State) interviewed on BBC about Hillary Clinton – “she will be only remembered for flying around gathering frequent flyer miles and accomplishing nothing important.”

Why does anyone take this guy seriously?  It’s like the media constantly going to talk and get "experienced opinions" from big time loser and whiner in-chief John McCain as if he has any credibility on any subject.

Eliot Abrams – a short history:

1. Covered up US complicity in crimes committed in El Salvador for President Reagan.

2. Lied to Congress about Iran-Contra.

3. Disbarred for lying to Congress under oath.

4. Planned, with the help of Condi Rice and President Bush II a devastating civil war in Gaza between Hamas and Fatah resulting in a stronger Hamas and removal of Fatah.

5. Promoted an Israeli attack against Syria as part of Israel’s FUBAR war in Lebanon – luckily declined by Israel.

6. Bought and paid for by the Israeli Lobby in Washington.

7. Neo-conservative and advisor to wonder-boy Paul Ryan who is wrong about everything.

This  is the lying, disbarred lawyer and architect of the disastrous neo-con policies under Reagan and Bush II that virtually bankrupted the US, destroyed US credibility, made more enemies than friends and who want the US to bomb Iran and mount another stupid, illegal war in the Middle East.  We are supposed to listen to him about a Secretary of State who spent a full four years repairing the damage done by neo-con policies that also happen to support, without question, the apartheid government in Israel?

American Pundits Strike Another Blow in Support of Teh Stupid

Every once in a while I venture into the world of the US media to see how they compare to my normal viewing habits (BBC and, the best, al Jazeera).  I am never disappointed with the flimsy knowledge (as opposed to low intellect) and poor caliber of analysis, the latter being based on the flimsy knowledge of, like, you know, actual facts.  It is very likely that the poor awareness by most Americans who actually care to know what is going on in the real world (as opposed to the pure fantasy world of Republicans) is the proximate result of being forced (there is little choice) to listen to the crap doled out by Very Smart People.

Case in point. NBC Meet the Press and its lineup of shallow thinkers like Ted Koppel,  Bob Woodward (who has exactly zero foreign policy depth and is an overrated writer to boot), Andrea Mitchell and Jim Demint (this has to be a bizarre joke).

According to Teddy, “we’re entering one of the most dangerous periods this country has ever known” Koppel, the nefarious groups around the world are ganging up on the US now and for the foreseeable future.  What color is the sky on his planet, I wonder?  He certainly remembers the Soviet Union.  How about Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan?  Now those were real threats.  Just exactly does he think weighs in at that level?  Somalia? Yemen? Chavez’s Venezuela?  Hey Teddy, no one on this planet offers a credible threat.

Does he really think that small, regional and mostly intra-state conflicts have anything on the real inter-state wars that raged during the 20^th century and that these small conflicts threaten US in a substantial way? Furthermore, the fact that the world has more democracies, even though some are struggling, and a very intertwined economic structure making state violence extremely unlikely makes his assertion all the more, well, stupid.

He also seems to think that Afghanistan is a future threat although the US is getting out.  What does he think the US should do?  No answer to that from the Very Important Pundit.  Then, of course, he talks about al Qaeda.  Listen to the whole thing…because according to him, the decimated, dismantled and generally ineffective terrorist group is about to take over Pakistan.  Nobody – nobody with any knowledge believes that.

His next stop is, amazingly, Syria.  Aside from the horror that is genuinely unfolding in this sectarian civil war – about which he seems oblivious, the conflict started damn near two years ago and there is not a scintilla of evidence that the US is even inclined to get involved (fortunately). Is it a problem for Turkey?  Damn right. Does Turkey have an army, navy and air force to protect itself. Check.  Is a disintegrating Syria a threat to the US? No.  

He goes on to talk about Iran.  What a surprise.  He’s wrong there as well but you’ve really got to listen to him spew out un-educated garbage based on Bush talking points.  Would Iran react to a unilateral strike from Israel?  I expect so. So what and with what? Koppel appears to forget he is a news reader, not a serious analyst of anything.

Then comes Woodward, who suddenly  is a foreign policy expert. Really? He’s writing a new book on it, seemingly, called “Meltdown”.  This is utter bullshit.  There is no meltdown going on, rather the reverse.

All the statements on this show were patently false - yet the same people keep popping up to offer their highly paid misinformation.  Unfortunately, the "facts" are fed to a public with the attention span of a gnat and who take the statements by a parade of uninformed Very Important Pundits at face value.  I didn’t hear any faux comparison of Mali to Afghanistan, but then I was opening a beer and probably missed it. 

Shame on the American media for falling to the level it has and promoting stupidity for revenue generation.  They did it for Iraq 2003 too.

I’ll wait another year before indulging in this type of self-inflicted pain again.  

Depardieux...or is that Asterix...Confusion

This is actually blog post Number 500 and the first for 2013.  So - I thought it should be decidedly unserious and focus on the enormously amusing antics of Cyrano and Asterix - also known as that slightly rotund alcoholic and sometime actor, Gerard Depardieux.

Gerard, upset by the new socialist president of France and, not to put too fine a point on it, his plan to tax those with incomes in excess of $1 million at a rate of 75% (which is a little outlandish) has obtained a Russian passport to exhibit how put-out he feels. 

However, he has now taken the plunge into Russian politics with a loud yelp in support of Vladimir Putin and his not so subtle move toward an oppresive state. 

In a supposedly secret telephone interview he also heavily criticised the anti-Putin stunt that the Pussy Riot all-female punk band performed last year in Russia's main cathedral. With talking points that could have been written by the Kremlin, Depardieu said that the band members would have received worse treatment had they gone to an Arab country and performed in a mosque.

"Imagine if these ladies walked into a mosque -- they would not come out alive..." 

Yes, well. Nothing like lowering the bar.  Sort of like saying that the Russian government is slightly less barbaric and crushes any decent with less vigour than chopping off heads in a public square in Saudi Arabia.

Two band members are currently serving two-year sentences in Russia's notorious manual labour camps.

He then said, "But when I say such things in France, I am considered an idiot."  No, Gerard, not just in France.

But, then he dives straight in the muddy water of Russian politics. 

Gratuitous remarks involved dishing out severe criticism of the opposition, who are not enamoured of Putin's 13-year rule were the norm. 

"The Russian opposition has no programme -- it has nothing," he told Rossiya state television's weekly program.

Then the remark designed to win over his new fellow citizens:

"Unfortunately, the masses are stupid. Only the individual is beautiful." 
Russia's first post-Soviet protests exploded last year in response to a fraud-riddled parliamentary election in which Putin's party barely got past the post.

But it get's dumber:

Depardieu said the opposition had "very smart people" such as former chess champion Garry Kasparov in its ranks. "But that is good for chess and not much else."

So - he leaves a free and open society in France because he doesn't like the idea of high taxes, to go to Russia - demonstrably un-free and un-open and with a flat 13% tax rate which played no part in his decision.

Gerard - fat, dumb and being an alcoholic are rarely a good life style choices.

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL

Putin Throws Assad Under the Bus

When you lose this guy, time's up.

On Thursday, President Putin said this about Syria and Assad:

"We are not concerned about the fate of al-Assad’s regime. We understand what is going on there and that the family has held power for 40 years. Undoubtedly, there is a call for changes.”

“We are worried about a different thing – what next? We simply don’t want the current opposition, having become the authorities, to start fighting the people who are the current authorities ... and [we don’t want] this to go on forever.”

During the past several months, the opposition forces have consolidated gains, holding most of the north and opening up new fronts in the south. After a year of scattered fighting and assaults, they have now carried out coordinated attacks that are stripping away territory from the Assad regime which is looking more and more like a well-armed militia than coherent national fighting force. Russia knows this and is likely planning its pull-back from the Middle East. Does Iran? Probably.

But, there is a grain of truth in President Putin's remarks yesterday.  The Arab Spring has resulted in an upsurge of hard line Islamists, such as the Salafists in Egypt and similar groups in Syria.  The conventional wisdom was that if the Assad regime fell, those who peacefully demonstrated for fundamental rights a year ago would be able to consolidate and reconstruct a largely secular Syria but one that included Islamic principles.  That is unlikely to happen, and we can see from Iraq and Egypt, that those who wanted democracy are likely to end up with a new government that is neither liberal or democratic.  

President Putin is also correct in his concern that the fighting could go on forever.  Syria's opposition is united by only one thing - to remove the Assad regime. Once that is accomplished, what then?  One merely has to look at Egypt and its looming governance crisis.

Then there are the Kurds who have been largely disconnected from the fighting but not the opposition. Will they have a role to play within a new government or will they reflect on their wider interests with their government in northern Iraq?  If fighting erupts in northern Iraq between the Baghdad government and the Kurdish autonomous region - an increasingly likely scenario given the possibility of no Kurdish representation in the Iraq government - will it spread to engulf Syria?  Ankara is also likely looking at that possibility.

So, the complexity of the state of play in Syria is reflected in the entire region at this point while the US and Europe seem to be trying to find a way to engage in the regime change process so as to have influence in the new Syria.  Hence the labelling of the Ansar al-Jebhat al-Nusra li-Ahl al-Sham (Supporters of the Front for Victory of the People of Syria) or simply Jebhat al-Nusra (Support Front) by Washington as a terrorist organization in an attempt to sift out extremist.

As the end game approaches, the complexity will increase as Iran, seeing an ally swept from power, struggles to reset its relationship with Syria, while Turkey moves to create a stable transition that does not involve a Kurdish uprising that could spill over into its territory and the West maneuvers to prevent extremist elements from coming to power.

Fathoming China's Foreign Policy

What on earth is China doing?  While smiling and proclaiming it wants good relations with its neighbors, China has embarked on a foreign policy frolic that lays claim to the entire South China Sea, has intercepted Malaysian seismic study vessels in Malaysian waters claimed by China, aggressively challenged Japan over islands lying within its self-declared maritime borders,  instigates a nationalistic fervor resulting in smashed windows and destruction of Japanese car dealerships in China and deliberately provokes other countries – the Philippines being a prime example – with its legally absurd sovereignty claims (considering it is a signatory to the Law of the Sea Treaty). 

One can only assume that the People’s Liberation Army has acquired a tad too much influence and control over the government policies.  Backlash is in the air - and water.

Every country in the region, as far away as India, now wants the US to increase its presence. The  newly elected Japanese government, while not actively hostile, is discussing rearmament and vows to take a more forceful stance toward China (not good considering the history involved).  The only exceptions for China are Pakistan and North Korea, not exactly the best group of friends.

This could not possibly be the result desired by Beijing.  It is exactly a case of “not what I say, but what I do” and what China is doing is irritating everyone – from Japan to South East Asia to India.

Mursi - Mistakes and the Road to Istability

The Egyptian constitution passed its first hurdle of two with 56%.  This is not good.  The constitution was written by a Muslim Brotherhood drafting committee devoid of women and from which most liberals, moderates and secularists resigned.  Salafists, a dangerously extreme group of Islamists, have attacked opposition offices.  Dr. Mursi’s rush to judgment to hold a referendum with virtually no time for intelligent study of the document by Egyptian voters and the manner of its alarmingly sudden creation by the drafting committee with no legal scholars should worry him. 

This is a critical document.  The constitution will form the foundation of every other future piece of legislation. A very large section of Egyptian society is against it and against the anti-liberal sentiments of the Muslim Brotherhood and certainly those of the extremist Salafists to whom they are allied.  Rather than provide the stability that Egypt desperately needs, the process that Mursi – and it seems the Muslim Brotherhood to whom he is clearly kneeling and which has never kept its word on any matter – is pursuing could very well have the unintended consequence of mimicking Nouri al-Maliki’s problems in Iraq, together with the attendant violence.

Where religious extremists seek to impose their will on all others there is an ultimate backlash.

What is Mursi Up To?

What is Muhammad Mursi's plan?  It is difficult not to take him at his word - that the powers he seized under a set of decrees last Thursday which greatly enhanced his power and prevented the judiciary from challenging any action he might take - would be dropped when a constituion is finalized (now extended from the end of December to the end of February).  However, the make-up of the Constituant Assembly is heavily weighted toward the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Keep in mind that many secularist and Christian representatives have resigned from the Assembly which is drafting the new constitution. Despite Mursi's attitude of inclusiveness, which even if true is not what his party believes, the risk that a liberal, pluralist and inclusive society will not arise seems to be more likely than before. Consequently, the constitution may eventually be so non-inclusive and religiously oriented that almost 50% of the country will be subject to a loss of rights that it expects. 

In the meantime, the key decree, at least for me, is the one that says the president may take any steps he feels necessary to preserve the revolution, or national unity, or the country’s security. Coupled with the other decrees preventing the judiciary from questioning or dissolving the Islamist dominated Constituent Assembly or upper house of Parliament, these decrees are a recipe for a potential disaster between now and the end of February.

Mursi's margin of victory was slim, to say the least.  If half the country believes that the revolution is under threat and that the constitution is one-sided, under the circumstances of the Egyptian environment, the much wished for stability could rapidly circle the drain.

The Good Guys

WE WIN

US Election Prediction

Time's up for Romney and his pack of racsist, knuckle dragging mouth breathers and his wealthy financiers.  I give Virginia and Florida to the racists but not Ohio, despite an Attorney General who believes in voter suppression.

EV - Obama between 290 and 303. 

Republican and Mitt's Geography Lesson of the Day

Since this is a foreign policy blog, I won’t deal with the misogynistic proclivities of the Republican Party and its slimy politicians. What is interesting is their complete lack of depth in international affairs (at least ever since their Christianista Misogynist in Chief, Richard Mourdock won the primary against Senator Lugar in Indiana).

Aside from the astoundingly cluelessness of Mitt Romney in general at the final debate with President Obama, there was a remarkable moment when he floated the notion that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could be indicted for his inflammatory statements against Israel. The Iranian President was once quoted saying that Israel “must be wiped off the map,” though the translation was later revealed to be just a tad wrong.

“I’d make sure that Ahmadinejad is indicted under the Genocide Convention. His words amount to genocide incitation,” Romney said.

That was followed quickly by one of Romney’s advisors, Eric Fehrnstrom, suggesting that the World Court could arrest Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

First of all, can someone please supply the world with the address of the “World Court”?

No?

I didn’t think so. And for a political cult party that, along with its tea-bag followers, finds international agreements and institutions loathsome, appealing to one, even though it doesn’t exist, strikes me as a bit of a stretch, even for these buffoons.

In case these moth-brained neo-cons haven’t noticed, their cartoon compatriot Ahmadinejad is going to be out of a job pretty soon; so, unless they act quickly to get the "World Court" to issue an indictment and provide the "World Police" with a warrant to parachute into Iran, snatch their suspect and whisk him away to the "World Jail" where he can await trial by the "World Court" as soon as a "World Prosecutor" can be found they will miss the moment.

On more thing. Republicans, like a good number of their disciples, couldn't find Iran with a map and a flashlight. Hence, this statement by Mitt at the debate:

"Secondly, Syria’s an opportunity for us because Syria plays an important role in the Middle East, particularly right now. Syria is Iran’s only ally in the Arab world. It’s their route to the sea."

Uhm. Well. No.

According to the CIA fact book, Iran's coastline consists of pretty nice beachfront on the Persian Gulf leading out to the Gulf of Oman which is connected (get the map Republican boys and girls) to the Indian Ocean. That's 1,520 miles of sipping pina-coladas and sunbathing by the sea while watching its excuse for a navy go by. If that's not enough, then they can float some toy ships on the Caspian as well - anywhere along 460 miles of shoreline.

Oh, yeah. Iran doesn't border Syria, although thanks to the last American president they were gifted Iraq, so I guess that's something

Rocks and Hard Places - Turkish Edition

I’ve just returned from Turkey and unless you’ve been living on Pluto, the four days of shelling by Syrian forces of Turkish towns, killing civilians, and counter-fire by the Turkish army is big news.  Turkey has warned that it is very close to war and the al-Assad regime must cease its attacks – or else.   The “or else” should be of concern to everyone because it is very clear that the Syrian regime is engaging in desperate measures to stay alive and attempting to provoke a war with Turkey in the hopes of destabilizing Turkey with the help of the PKK in the southeastern part of the country.

Turkey should not take the bait.

The Syrian army, consisting of little more than small units in the region and having lost control of large swathes of territory and border crossings, is in no condition to resist a Turkish assault.  It could be swept from the border area and would likely end up in a burning heap along the roads leading to Damascus.  That is not in the interests of Turkey for several reasons.

The first is that the Turkish economy is growing at 7% and has been doing so for a good part of the last decade.  A war puts the economy at serious risk of losing momentum, if not stopping growth altogether.  The towns along the Syrian border and the southeast in general had been booming until the Assad regime’s struggle for survival brought trade crashing to the ground.

Second, the PKK is under extraordinary pressure both militarily and politically. Turkey maintains military bases inside Iraq (much to Baghdad’s ineffective vocal objections) to counter PKK activities while at the same time Ankara has pursued a policy of inclusion for the Kurds within its borders.  A war puts political stability inside Turkey at risk, would energize the PKK and cause turmoil in large parts of eastern Turkey.

Third, Ankara is clearly aware of the geo-political problems in the region.  The Assad regime is allied with Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Iran has invested considerable money and reputation into the fight – money it can ill afford to lose, not to mention losing the political advantages it has gained since the Iraq war.  Without Russian support, the Assad regime could not continue its policy of slaughter. Russia is a major trading partner of Turkey and furthermore, controls the politics of Armenia which impacts Turkey’s resource rich ally, Azerbaijan.

Fourth, Turkey cannot count on NATO for support.  Although it has the right under international law to defend itself, invoking Article 5 to bring in all of NATO is likely to go nowhere.  The US and Europe, with the probable exception of France, have no stomach for war in the region.  Syria is not Libya and military intervention by NATO – which is the default military organization – would trigger large asymmetrical responses by Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah that would affect Israel and the Gulf.  Turkey would be on its own.

A full scale border crossing, no doubt inflicting what would be crushing losses on the Syrian military, would have economic, social and political repercussions that cannot be predicted, but all of which can be described charitably as not good for Turkey.

The Turkish Parliament has voted in favour of a motion permitting the government to engage in cross-border raids on Syria and in the past few days, the Turkish military has moved additional tanks and mechanized units to the region hoping to send a message.  Prime Minister Erdoğan said yesterday “I am calling once more on the al-Assad regime and its supporters: Don’t dare to test Turkey’s patience,” adding that testing Turkey’s capacity for deterrence would be “a fatal mistake.”  The motion authorizing raids is not a blank check, however; more importantly, It was on the agenda in any event to renew the authorization for the Iraq bases targeting the PKK.  The timing is coincidental. Hopefully, Damascus will get the message.

Russian and Iranian support will not save al-Assad or his regime as rebels continue to seize territory and have failed to be dislodged from Homs, Aleppo or villages along the border with Turkey.  I don’t doubt that Turkey will launch cross-border missions to clear out Syrian military positions  if necessary – but they can be pushed back out of range without doing so and provide leverage so that  the rebel units in the area could take control. 

At the end of the day Turkey needs to show restraint – difficult under the type of provocation pursued by Damascus.  They are trapped between national interest and national honour.  But, Turkey has more to lose than gain if it unleashes its army.   

The Syrian civil war, now a sectarian one as well, will be a swamp which, once sucked into, will be difficult to escape.  Unfortunately, NATO and the West are tired of nation building and the UN is paralyzed by Russian pretensions of being a major power and Chinese fundamental principle of non-interference. Turkey is left with little choice but to deal with the situation that involves a civil war along hundreds of miles of its border and more than 100,000 refugees.  The rest of world will let Turkey sort this out and it does not have a lot of choices for maneuver.  One choice however – massive military intervention – should be avoided.

Be Careful What You Wish For...

Iran, hosting the non-aligned conference this week in Tehran, launched a strenuous effort to get Mohamed Mursi, the new Egyptian president, to attend.  They were successful and really, really happy. 

Mursi, on the other hand, revealed a level of independence that no one – NO ONE – anticipated as he condemned the Syrian government and urged the Syrian rebels to unify and turn out President Assad.  No doubt somewhat shocked, the Syrian delegation walked out.  More importantly, the Iranian government likely had a collective heart attack as Mursi, a conservative from the Muslim Brotherhood (feared and loathed by the Americans and Israelis) basically told Iran that he supported the rebels whom the West want to see take down Assad, putting him on the same side as Turkey, Western Europe and the US and against Russia, Iran and the current Syrian government. I leave China out because their veto of the UN resolutions, where they joined Russia, were  based on the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of another country (not liking the idea that it could be applied to them) rather than the vaporization of an ally and major arms purchaser.  

As if to rub salt into the wound, Mursi then went on to compare the rebel cause in Syria to the plight of the Palestinians.  Just to be clear – the Palestinian cause is sacred to Egypt and a frequent, convenient rallying point for Iranian propaganda.  Mursi has effectively put Iran in the shoes of Israel vis a vis the Syrian rebels. Sting much? 

This speech is clearly not what Iran wanted and ups their cost as they will now have to deal with an increasingly annoyed Turkish government, the vast wealth of Qatar and Saudi Arabia and now a moral opponent in the leading Arab state of Egypt supposedly being run by one of their own. This is clearly not the optimum outcome from the point of view of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor will Hezbollah be celebrating in the streets of Beirut.  Hezbollah leadership is likely re-calibrating everything at this point.

Multiple  factors seem to be in play. Aside from the fact that President Mursi is a creation of the Egyptian revolution and likely feels a good deal of sympathy for the similar revolt in Syria which began peacefully and was met by violent responses from the Assad family,  Mursi is Sunni in a largely Sunni country.  Turkey is Sunni as well.  The Sunni minority in Iraq has been sidelined from power, with the Sunni Vice President forced to flee to Istanbul.  Iran has the upper hand in Iraq (thanks Bush Jr.) and Egypt wants Western, Qatari and Saudi money and investment.  Qatar and Saudi Arabia are, like Egypt and Syria, Arab.  Iran is decidedly not Arab or Sunni and, to make matters worse is flexing its muscle in the direction of the Gulf Arab states.

So, now the game becomes more complex.  Moscow is sweating and Iran is probably not in the best of moods.  An interesting sidelight to this is the American displeasure that the non-aligned movement held its conference in Tehran.  They actively tried to convince the UN Secretary General not to attend (any place, except Iran).  The Republican Party railed against the meeting and the UN – largely because they prefer killing to peace - and thought a dictator like Hosni Mubarak was their kinda guy.  Who’s laughing now?

Assad said the army was “cleansing” society and needed some time to finish the job.  Not the best choice of words.  Once ground-to-air missiles and some anti-armour weapons begin to make their impact through the largess of Qatar and the Saudi’s, Moscow should start to fixture a nice dacha for him.

For Assange - What now? What now?

Now that the Ecuadorian government has granted political asylum to Julian Assange (for those living on Pluto, the Wikileaks founder) to escape extradition to Sweden on sexual abuse allegations resulting in - ultimately - a snatch to the US, what now?  He is confined within the walls of the Ecuadorian London embassy.  For his purposes, not very optimal.

Leaving aside the arguments of whether publishing communications of limited value, aside from some amusing and embarrassing anecdotes and to which literally millions had access anyway, is some sort of crime - the granting of asylum could hardly have been a surprise to anyone with half a brain.  The current government in Ecuador is not especially supportive of the US and its foreign policy, for one thing.  It also sees the UK as in the pocket of the US.

However, even if there was a chance that Ecuador would reject the plea for asylum, the UK foreign office certainly slammed the door on that possibility by announcing that, under UK law, it could legally strip the embassy of its status, storm in and arrest poor Julian and ship him off to Stockholm.  Simply pointing our the law was a threat.  Have the people in the UK government been standing too long in the hot sun?  Were they running a high fever?  What ever made them think that floating the idea was a good plan?  If anything was going to guarantee a decision to grant asylum, that certainly was going to do it, while simultaneously enraging the government of Ecuador.  Furthermore, such an action would create a precedent of unaccountable proportions.  It doesn't need to be spelt out.

Why not have the Swedish government fly over a bunch of their crack prosecution team with the witness making the claims (who, apparently has not even been questioned) and conduct an interview inside the Ecuadorian embassy to determine if a case really exists?  If it is shown that the allegations are for real and that enough evidence exists to support an arrest (he has not been arrested) and criminal trial, it is likely that the Ecuadorian government will be placed in an awkward position and request his departure. 

Mitt's European Adventure

Forever trying to solidify the Republican base, composed of red-neck conservative know (and don't want to) nothing bigots, Mitt decided to show his foreign policy credentials by taking a sojourn to that place he and his knuckle dragging followers couldn't find on a map with a flashlight - Europe. 

Not any old Europe (and certainly not France with its leftish new president) but Poland and England. Between the two, he sandwiched in Israel so he could show solidarity with the increasingly marginalized government by vowing to do something about Iranian nuclear ambitions. 

Fortunately for Mitt, most Americans - and certainly not his followers - don't much care about foreign affairs these days (not realizing that Europe's economic problems deeply affect the US).  Otherwise, they might find it astonishing that he questioned London's ability to host the Olympic games, drawing the ridicule of its outspoken mayor who is not known for his liberal tendencies and then went to Israel where he said of Palestinians (probably one of the most highly educated peoples in the Middle East) that they were intellectually and culturally inferior to Israelis.  Being treated as third class citizens and being suppressed while having their land stolen obviously points to Israeli intellectual superiority.  Oh. Yeah. Note to drooling troll Mittster supporters: he praised the Israeli health care system (single payer, price controls).

Then, to get closer to Russia (his number one geopolitical enemy) he landed in Warsaw.  There, he proceeded to glorify Poland's economy.  Great. Poland's economy has been remarkably resilient for a number of reasons.  Good for him.  Note to the knuckle-dragging Mittster supporters (I think those are the ones who can read): Poland has a larger government spending program than the US and - wait for it --------------
universal health care and a strong labour union system.

There is nothing more pathetic than pandering made worse with stupidity coupled with arrogance.

End of the Beginning in Syria

Unraveling is the word that pops to mind as events progress in Syria.  The civil war may take a sudden turn toward an end game.

Confirmed dead from the rebel assault on the security offices in Damascus are Assef Shawkat, Assad's brother-in-law and the deputy head of the armed forces and Assad’s his closest security adviser, Dawoud Rajha, the Minister of Defence and the government’s senior Christian official and Hassan Turkmani, the crisis management chief.  Other senior officials were wounded and now rumours are out and about that Assad also was wounded and is in Latakia – a convenient spot if Russia wants to pick him up by boat.  His wife, Asma al-Assad, is rumoured to be in Russia already.

If Assad’s wife has indeed fled to Russia, the Kremlin is going to need to re-calibrate its foreign policy fast for once.  The Kremlin is notorious for its reactive foreign affairs - which does not function well in situations like this.  Thinking ahead and incorporating possible black swans in its plans has never been a strong point in Moscow.

Of course, all the reports may well be wrong. Assad may hold on. But the vehemence with which the Syrian Information Minister Umran al-Zuabi, vowed that those behind the attack would be held accountable even if they were outside the country tends to support the rumours.  Of course, by adding that the bombing was orchestrated by combined Turkish, Qatari, Saudi Arabian and Israeli intelligence, removes a good deal of credibility from his remarks if only because this would be the strangest cast of conspirators in the long, bloody history of the Middle East.

One interesting question is what did the Hamas leadership see months ago when they hastily vacated Damascus and Syria? This is, of course, the region where historically “writing on the wall” originated. Then there is Hezbollah in Lebanon who will be in a difficult position, to say the least, as they lose both their arms depot in Syria and the arms route to Iran if Assad heads for a village in Russia with the added annoyance now of having to deal with Salafists within Lebanon who are fiercely (an understatement) conservative, destructive and dangerous.

Finally, will Russia go to Plan C soon (see previous post).

Syria, Russia and Slow Train Wrecks

English: President Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Abbarah square (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

To steal from Churchill, the now almost daily fighting inside Damascus, including the destruction of a major barracks and the attack on the State Security building, is not the beginning of the end, it is simply the end of the beginning.  The downfall of the Assad regime won’t come from the streets, however; it will only come when his own people determine that the status quo has changed and turn on him as they did on Qadaffi’s regime.  Stay tuned though because the military can still field thousands of tanks and artillery– all of whom are Alawite led and loyal so far.  This is not Egypt, Tunisia or Libya (where the military was essentially incinerated by NATO).  And if you think it can’t get much worse than it already is, consider that the government has begun to shift some of its chemical weapons.  If they are sent to fire units of any type, this could be very ominous, to say the least.  One hopes they are simply  being moved to more secure locations – itself an indication that the Syrian government is nervous.

Meanwhile, it is likely that the Kremlin is moving rapidly to a Plan C.  Plan A which amounted to unqualified support for the Assad regime, was modified a few weeks ago to Plan B when they announced that their purpose was not to sustain Assad in power but to bring about a negotiated settlement with no external intervention.  Like the Egyptian military who simply took advantage of the massive unrest to remove a threat to the regime itself (Mubarak and more to the point his son),  Russia is now saying that Assad is not the point.  But the optics are bad for them as they are seeming to support a regime because 1) they want to keep their wharf on the Med; 2) they want to be able to keep all the arms contracts; and, 3) they want to prevent an alternative route for oil to Europe that would open up with a change in government in Syria.  None of this has played well in the rest of the Arab world. And they, not to mention many Syrian’s who are likely to come to power, will not forget.

Nor should they.

Kick the Can Eurozone Style

Shorter Jörg Asmussen, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB:  Stop giving advice if you don't agree with us.....

Eurozone Redux

I’ve been absent for two good reasons.  The first is that political events are unfolding at too rapid a rate to make any sensible comment that would last more than a few hours.  Reading other blogs which vainly attempt to prognosticate, let alone to analyze, the collapse of the Euro, Syria’s seemingly unending nightmare, fear mongering, obstructionist Republicans in the US, the mess that is Egypt, Turkey’s coming of age, Russia’s desperate struggle to keep old ties afloat while deliberately alienating the West, etc. etc., I decided the task was not only fruitless, but rather stupid.  So I’ve watched al Jazeera and waited.  The second reason is that I’m busy.

Nevertheless, with yet another “final” Euro summit underway the time seems appropriate to re-address the unraveling of the Eurozone. 

At the crux, of course, is Greece.  The election of the centrist coalition solved nothing,  If the left had won, Germany’s bluff would have been called. But, unfortunately now that particular scenario has been delayed.  In the lottery for the dubious honour of becoming Greece’s Finance Minister so that the Germans could kick him and solutions down the road, Yannis Stournaras won.  He was there in 1994 to negotiate Greece’s entry into the Eurozone.  He may well be there on its exit.

Minister Stournaras only has a couple of moves before disintegration.  Will they happen and will Germany accede?  No.  But, anyway, official time for Europe has expired and we’re now in the first overtime.  Yannis Stournaris must resist the pressure to buy more time by extending the bailout, which will only produce more debt which will be paid to German banks in the end.  Don’t extend the bankruptcy. Call the German bluff.  Get a deal from Europe.

Keep in mind that all the bailout funds masterminded by the Germans are nothing more than payments to the banks, not to the Greek people.  Furthermore, much of the bailout goes to allow Greek banks pay German and other European banks for loans that should never have been made.  Greece’s sovereign debt problem is not being addressed and won’t be until Germany is forced into a position where it can no longer dictate its austerity program for others while maintaining its competitive advantages that were deliberately structured into the Eurozone system.  Money that re-capitalized Greek banks should not be part of the national debt – that releases a bunch of Euro’s, by the way.  Let the European Financial Stability Facility own the banks and do with them what they need to do. 

Everyone, including the Germans, are now talking about a growth strategy.  Well, let’s say growth returns in one or two years.  Until that time there should be no payments required on the loans.  After growth begins to appear, payments can be resumed with a ratio pegged to growth. 

To be clear, I don’t think any of this will happen as Germany, and Germans, seem to forget that their growth is dependent on buyers and as usual are forgetting that their economic strength lies only in exports. Losing buyers in Europe by sticking to an inane austerity policy is just plain stupid.  What they are doing is saving the banks and abandoning the people.

What Germans and the German government refuse to admit is that the Euro ship and its economies are sinking fast and, like the Titanic, it will take down the wealthy and the poor, those who are industrious and those who are not.  Their attitude and solutions are Hooveresque without the quaintness. He and his government, in response to a rapidly disintegrating economy in the US, moved rapidly to reduce government expenditure, and cut wages. He was an idiot then and Merkel and company are the idiots today.

Finally, and what makes the Eurozone almost problematic at this point, is that Chancellor Merkel wants to create a German Europe; every nation should  live, work and apply its governance according to German rulebooks.

Merkel and many (if not most) Germans have an annoying tendency to patronize the southern tier, telling them to “do their homework” for example, so that they can all become good little Germans.  This is nothing more than a tool to bring all of Europe under German leadership.  The word “rule” might be too harsh. Maybe.  However, this makes Germany a threat to the Eurozone and Europe – not Greece, Italy, Spain or Ireland.  So everyone else in Europe needs to decide if they want to live under German leadership or resist.

Merkel keeps saying that she and Germany will do whatever it takes to save the euro; except that every plan presented by others has been vetoed to satisfy German voters, German banks and the German press. Oh, and yes, national interests.