Germany's Prejudice

Following up on the last post, it has now become extremely clear that while Merkel is in power in Germany there will be no movement on EU accession by Turkey.

The Chancellor has again reiterated her opposition to Turkish membership based on the prejudices of a broad group supporters who are unwilling to accept any non-Christian country into the club. Similar sentiments are prevalent in France and most strongly in Austria, although to be frank, the latter country doesn't really count for much.

What the Chancellor is attempting to ignore - so far successfully - are the provisions of the EU acquis regarding Turkish membership. This document - all 110,000 pages - does not contain the words "privileged partnership". Anywhere. In the words of an iconic New York Yankee baseball player - "You can look it up".

The misguided, prejudiced position of a country that has assumed control of the EU, if not its leadership, cannot be characterized any longer under the rubric of foreign policy choices. There are over 3 million Turks living in Germany. Germany originally "invited" many of their parents and grandparents to immigrate to perform the jobs Germans considered too menial for themselves. Over 4,000 German companies operate in Turkey and bilateral trade exceeds 20 million euro. There cannot be any other reason other than good, old fashioned bigotry to suddenly attempt to breach the terms of the acquis.

Merkel needs to rethink German opposition to Turkish membership. Her ally in this quest, President Sarkozy, is likely to be hammered in the next French election if the latest regional election results are any indication. Spain, England and Eastern Europe members do not oppose Turkish membership and are also likely to become increasingly wary of German control of the EU. The Tories in England may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but if they win another crack will appear in the EU further endangering the viability of the euro. Merkel and her ever shrinking circle of friends may then find that Germany is again viewed with deep suspicion.

Germany needs to decide whether changing the rules toward the end of the game is good for overall perceptions of its potential honesty in other matters. Mitteleuropa is still a not so distant memory.

Merkel Goes to Turkey

Andrea Merkel is off to Turkey and will, again, break the word of the EU regarding eventual membership for Turkey by offering, also yet again, a privileged partnership.

Turkey will not accept this latest offer; but, the issue is not really up to Germany. Is it any longer in Turkey's political and economic interest to join an organization which is increasingly run by Germany both politically and economically? I don't believe it is.

The current German government is largely in the driver's seat in the EU. It has said that it has no interest in bailing out Greece from its self-inflicted financial woes and has also stated, through its Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble that if Greece, or any other eurozone member, could not right their finances, they should be ejected from the eurozone. Although there is no mechanism to toss the financially challenged out of the zone, the attitude - so long suppressed - is telling. Does Turkey really want to be a part of an organization run by Germany? Does it want to be tied into a group where the high labour cost and low efficiency economies are dictated to by one power?

I believe what will happen is that the process will be so attenuated that the idea of Turkish membership eventually vaporizes. This is an opportunity for Turkey. It will allow Turkey to firmly establish an independent foreign policy and further strengthen its new found self-esteem. It is also a huge opportunity for the United States, if it acts carefully, to forge a very strong relationship with an economically strong, cosmopolitan and educated democratic Muslim country to balance a German dominated EU tied to Russia by energy and to counter Iranian foreign policy designs in the region.

Of course, changes in governments in France (likely) and Germany (possible, but not soon) could lead to a different dynamic. The continued denial of membership to Turkey will, in the end, be Europe's loss. It may also be Turkey's gain.