Spent the weekend preparing a presentation on urban development in Ghana which I managed to finish on time and deliver on Monday. Follow up questions ensued at the conference today. It's now over and I have begun to review what has been going on in the world - with the G20 and elsewhere, including the torrent of news generated by Russia and President Obama's visit to Europe. Everyone else on this blog was also gone - our MENA contributor to Canada, another from Azerbaijan in Ukraine and the third in Central Asia figuring out US State Department forms.
So much for the excuses...we are back and I want to talk about the long, slow-motion train wreck of land tenure reform in Ghana coupled with the explosion of urban slums and why this is happening, Russian needs, dreams and demands and IMF lending practices.
If anyone noticed, by the way, the end of any independence movement in Chechnya died with the assassination of the last opposition leader in Dubai (the whereabouts of his brother is unknown - a circumstance he is likely to maintain).
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Japan, Ukraine and the IMF
The iron lady of Ukraine and current Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, has asked Japan for financial help to reconstruct pipelines, infrastructure and the like. Japan. With an economy that is tanking. Japan, unsurprisingly, directed her to the IMF to which it has recently contributed a cool $100 million(adjusted for deflation, I guess).
OK. Aside from how this request to Japan makes the current Ukrainian government look, sending them to the IMF is, well, almost a non-starter, considering in the board game "International Aid" if the player lands on "go to IMF, do not pass go" it is a recipe for social trouble. Not something Ukraine needs at the moment. Not that I have much against the IMF, it is just that they seem to be in some "Dr. Who" time warp with financial requirements which appear largely designed to foment social unrest and revolution.
The IMF recently demanded as a requirement for the next tranche of funding to Ukraine that it show a budget with a deficit of no more that 3%. In this economic climate that is not only impossible, but counterproductive. France, for example, is projecting a 5.6% deficit. Germany appears to be ok, but that is unlikely to last. Italy has exceeded the EU mandated 3% deficit. England, well...
Of course, none of the above are asking the IMF for assistance. The IMF standards, at this point, do not reflect reality, as the unlucky Romanians are about to find out. The next tranche to Ukraine will likely be disbursed based on smoke and mirrors - and the social cost will be high.
Having said that - what was the Prime Minister thinking in asking Japan?
OK. Aside from how this request to Japan makes the current Ukrainian government look, sending them to the IMF is, well, almost a non-starter, considering in the board game "International Aid" if the player lands on "go to IMF, do not pass go" it is a recipe for social trouble. Not something Ukraine needs at the moment. Not that I have much against the IMF, it is just that they seem to be in some "Dr. Who" time warp with financial requirements which appear largely designed to foment social unrest and revolution.
The IMF recently demanded as a requirement for the next tranche of funding to Ukraine that it show a budget with a deficit of no more that 3%. In this economic climate that is not only impossible, but counterproductive. France, for example, is projecting a 5.6% deficit. Germany appears to be ok, but that is unlikely to last. Italy has exceeded the EU mandated 3% deficit. England, well...
Of course, none of the above are asking the IMF for assistance. The IMF standards, at this point, do not reflect reality, as the unlucky Romanians are about to find out. The next tranche to Ukraine will likely be disbursed based on smoke and mirrors - and the social cost will be high.
Having said that - what was the Prime Minister thinking in asking Japan?
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