Austerity and Germany Lose

The big loser on the week ending Sunday?  Germany.  They lost The Netherlands on the same day as the first round of voting in France was underway as its government vaporized because of austerity.  They lost Greece when the ruling coalition lost the elections Sunday.  They lost France – the big one – when Merkozy was fired.  And all because Herr Wolfgang Schauble, the German Finance Minister and Merkel believed in Hooverism for everyone else, except Germany.  Guess what?  German economic theory that put austerity at the top of the list of actions that needed to be taken, followed closely by….austerity in number two position closely followed by – wait for it – more austerity, has resulted in the implosion of the Dutch government, amazing suffering of ordinary Greeks resulting in social upheaval and  the rise of a true Nazi party (ok, named after a fantasy role playing game, but nevertheless…) and defeat for the parties that agreed to the German prattle and yesterday  the dumping of their partner in crime, Sarkozy.  And guess what guys, Spain is next.

Now – suddenly – as if struck by lightning, the Germans are talking about growth policy.  Get this: Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said that France and Germany should "quickly get to work on adding a growth pact to the fiscal treaty to promote competitiveness". Then, the architect of the current mess, Wolfgang Schauble says that wages in Germany should rise, so increasing the demand for exports from the rest of the eurozone and raising economic growth. "By raising pay, Germany would help reduce economic imbalances in Europe", Mr Schauble said. It doesn’t get better than this. Now the Germans are warning Greece and everyone else that there will be no change to the fiscal stability pact.  Yes, that’s the position for Germany to take.  Very, very clever those threats.

Oh – and a word to Republican idiots in the US.  Hooverian austerity doesn’t work. Period.

Iran loses Turkey - and everything else

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Prime Minister of Turkey at Çanakkale Türkçe: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Başbakanı (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After a prolonged absence from posting, I'm back.  I have frankly been immersed in legislative initiatives in Tajikistan and meetings in Kyiv and Istanbul for a major program in the Black Sea basin. 

Nevertheless, the dry spell should be over for the time being. 

The first item on the agenda is a quick post on the fluid dynamics in the Middle East brought on by the Syrian civil war and attrocities which have been committed by the al Assad regime.

The systematic murder of women, children and other civilians in order to crush the revolt represented largely by the Free Syrian Army, has been unresolved.  Kofi Annan says he is shocked by the massive bloodshed committed by Syrian regular army forces in the period leading up to the agreed upon cease fire and withdrawal of army units from cities and towns in Syria.  Why he is shocked is beyond comprehension.  There is nothing in the Baath regime's history that would have indicated other than brutal repression when their control was threatened.  Russia  claims to support the Annan mission - except that it is deliberately facilitating the murders as is China.

Now, the situation is changing because the civil war has become decidedly a geopolitical struggle between Iran and its not-so-friendly neighbors and the West.  The casualties are the civilians.  Nevertheless, Iran seems to have overplayed its hand and is now openly in a war of words with the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia extending to threats of punishment.  They have also slapped away the strongest power in the region, Turkey, by first calling Turkey and enemy of the Syrian people for hosting the Friends of Syria conference on April 1 and then questioning the location of new nuclear talks, advocating a change of venue from Istanbul to Damascus or Baghdad. 

The optics of a successful rising Iran have now changed. Ankara bent over backwards to mediate on the nuclear issue and a week ago Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Ayatollah Khamanei to promote negations and avoid a military strike (however unlikely).  The meeting ended with a statement when Ayatollah Khameni said that  “building weapons of mass destruction amounts to a sin in our religion.”  Case closed. Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Davutoğlu went home.

Then Iran rejected Istanbul as venue and the situation began to unravel alarmingly. Clearly, Iran has learned nothing from following the personality of Erdoğan.  He has a tendency to take things personally. Very personally and very publicly.  Beware an Erdoğan scorned.  Now he accused Iran of evasion and self-isolation. Then he turned to the Syria problem and Iran's ally.

Iran has managed to piss-off the most powerful, and formerly neutral country in the Middle East. It has crossed the line and lost Turkey (an overwhelmingly Sunni nation with elections approaching). Tehran’s mendacity is evident not only its anti-Turkish ranting on Syria, where it itself is assisting in the slaughter, but also its astonishing disrespect to Turkey's efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.

Now, Erdoğan  says the country will wait "patiently" to see if Syria abides by a cease-fire deadline on Tuesday, but may take certain "steps" if the violence does not stop after that. Nearly 700 Syrian escaped to Turkey last Friday.  During a 36 hour period last eek about 2,800 crossed the to escape a helicopter-backed assault by Syrian troops.  No one can expect Turkey to continue to accept more refugees.  It already host 24,000.

What "certain steps" means is unknown - but the Turkish army can control the border from the Syrian side without too much worry about Syrian army units. Assad is on his way out.  Iran is going to lose this gambit and at the same time has lost the help of important players in the region, furthering its isolation.  Rarely has any country misplayed its hand in such a way.

Time to Go - Afghan Edition

The Fat Lady has risen and is now limbering up her vocal cords for a rendition of “Impossible”.  Afghanistan is over and the distrust and dislike are fully out in the open.  Since the entire COIN theory rests basically on trust, there is nothing left to salvage from a war that was won on the ground almost a decade ago and the goal of which died in a lightning raid in Pakistan last year.  The US indulged in nation building after 2003 and no one remembers why.  Nation building in a place like Afghanistan, where local villagers do not even know why foreign troops were everywhere because they never heard of 9/11, is building on foundation of sand.  The coalition has lost the hearts and minds battle. 

Let’s understand one thing – there is no trust on either side.  The latest killing spree by a veteran US sergeant where 16 people – 9 of them children – died is only a degree of difference from the death of civilians around the country by accidental fire and collateral damage.  The accidental burning of the Quran – considered the literal word of God – and videos of US soldiers urinating on the bodies of Taliban are only the most obvious of the incidents that have made the coalition presence problematic.

Three weeks ago an Afghan gunman killed two senior US officers inside the Interior Ministry’s headquarters.  This was on the heels of the Quran burning. A couple of days before the incident inside the Interior Ministry coalition helicopters flying in eastern Afghanistan fired on a group of civilians, killing four and injuring three.

And guess what.  Humpty Dumpty has fallen off the wall and Karzai can’t put him back together again.  Why? Because he is not respected and is aptly called the Mayor of Kabul.  And even if he could, he cannot because he cannot be seen to be supporting a coalition that has lost all trust.

Finally, all those foreign aid workers might soon find themselves protected by Afghan security because the Afghan government looks like it is going to enforce the banning of private security firms.  It is hard enough for various international aid agencies to get qualified people to go to Afghanistan.  Being protected by those in whom you have no trust will make it impossible.

The fact is that at this point any possible gains made in Afghanistan by the coalition are now gone.  President Obama has assured Karzai that NATO will “stay the course”.  There is no course.  It is time to cut the losses and go – because frankly, what purports to be a country but in reality is just a loose combination of regions that sometimes fight each other is not worth it.  Afghanistan is irrelevant and can be dealt with from a distance.

Withdrawal will likely make Pakistan more peaceful and stable. Donor funds, Russian and US security efforts and other aid interventions are pouring into neighboring Tajikistan.  Afghanistan is not bordered by friends and internally is divided.  Take away the foreign troops and it is not hard to envision the results.  We should not care.   It is not worth another 18 months of further bloodshed.

Romney's Iran - Different Fact Galaxy

This op-ed by Mitt Romney is simply so bad, it is impossible to know where to begin.  But I'll try.

First - he offers no evidence of any of his conclusions.  Iran has a “nuclear-bomb program”?  There is absolutely no evidence of that and both the CIA and IAEA have stated as much.
Second - what evidence exists that the Islamic Republic is “racing to build a nuclear bomb.”?  None.
 He wants to permanently station aircraft carrier groups in the the Eastern Med and Gulf?  To do what? And one is already stationed in the Gulf with periodic visits by another or two into the Med.
He wants the US to increase naval shipbuilding to 15 ships a year so that it is unchallenged?  It already is unchallenged, in case he hadn't noticed. There is no navy on the planet that the US navy could not push aside with ease.
Romney is making matters worse by ignoring facts and pandering to those who want to strike out at Iran regardless of the adverse consequences to the US, its allies in the region and the spike in oil prices every time he opens his mouth with calls for yet another war in the Middle East and Iran responds to those threats with its own.

What is Wrong with Germany

The Russian elections are over with no surprises.  Everything proceeded as planned.  Russia will now concentrate on further intimidation of its former colonies - a natural geopolitical reality which is in its interests.  Despite the fact that even if Russia permitted a free media and truly competitive elections which allows for opposition candidates that have not been hand-picked by the Kremlin, Putin would have won. But not by much.

But it is telling that the energy ties-that- bind running from Moscow to Berlin are firm and colours the question of Germany's dependability as a Western ally and member of NATO.  The majority of European countries were silent about the elections and the results.  Putin received few congratulatory phone calls from any European country, with France remaining significantly quiet.

But, Angela Merkel immediately called Putin to congratulate him and amazingly offered a "strategic partnership".  The Foreign Minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, provided the proper response by calling the elections undemocratic. Poland has seen the results of a strategic partnership between Moscow and Berlin before.

German ties with Russia are understandable given the prostrate energy position of Berlin.  At the same time, coupled with German positions on Libya, it's attitude toward Greece and the southern tier of EU member states and its positioning to control the EU at the expense of everyone else, Germany must be looked on differently and its foreign policy with suspicion.

Lies and the Liars Who Tell Them - AIPAC

First question of the day:  Why is not AIPAC a registered foreign agent in the US?

Second question of the day (or maybe decade):  Why is it that US foreign policy in the Middle East must comply with someone elses so-called vital interests (see question one) instead of its own?

Related to the second question: Under what insane scheme does an apartheid government which openly steals land from another people get the right to push an entire region into a war with Iran based on no evidence whatsoever of nuclear weapon development?  And please note, the religious authorities in Iran have said that they consider nuclear weapons a sin - but that statement was never broadcast or printed in the US media whether once chooses to believe it or not.

Time for Change in Ukraine - Revolution redux?

I have not written about Ukraine in a long while, precisely because any semblance of democracy is being systematically dismantled by Victor Yanukovich and his mafia thugs.  But perhaps it is time for people in Ukraine to start thinking about an alternative to getting rid of the current government which is making sure it effectively rigs the next election.
This week, Yuriy Lutsenko, the Interior Minister under Yulia Tymoshenko, was sentenced to four years in jail and a three year ban from public office.  Since Yulia Tymoshenko is already there for seven years, Yanukovich and his oligarchs are effectively destroying any attempt by the opposition to contest the next election in 2015. This latest outrage has brought the usual "serious concern" response from the diplomats in the EU and the US.
 
This is not enough.  A little of the pictured spirit would do fine.

Let's get something straight.  Yanukovich is destroying the political freedom of Ukraine and doing so by blatantly charging opponents with his version of crimes.  Tymoshenko was condemned for negotiating a bad deal on gas with the Russians - something even Putin could not understand.  Lutsenko was convicted of giving an apartment to his attorney and other financial atrocities - like increasing his driver's pension.

So - when push comes to shove and Yanukovich (with a popularity of 15%)  is hopefully dragged out into the street by an angry mob - what should his punishment be (if he survives)?  For betraying the nascent democracy.  For handing Ukraine to the Kremlin. For putting table lamps in his new office that each cost $10,000 and fittings in his bathroom for 300,000 Euro while Ukraine's economy shrinks.  For jailing his opposition.

It is possible to kill a country in other ways than the methods now being undertaken by Assad of Syria.  The punishment , however, should be the same. And it should not wait until 2015.  Sometimes, talking is not enough.