My Libyan Mystery Solved - Courtesy of Wikileaks

In November of 2009 I was assured of a Team Leader position with a project in Libya. At a meeting in London a month earlier I had been told that not only did the Libyan government want an American to head the project, but were insisting. So, I packed up from Central Asia and, at the request of the Egyptian firm which had hired me, flew to Cairo at the end of November despite the fact that I did not yet have a Libyan visa but which the Egyptians told me would be taken care of after I arrived. And I waited. And waited. For a month in Cairo (a city I never want to visit again for a variety of reasons).


The entire matter crashed and burned. I left Cairo and ended up two months later in Ghana. But, I never was given any adequate explanation why the visa was not issued. I suspect I now know why, courtesy of the recent Wikileaks dump.

This is from The Atlantic in the context of Libya’s agreement to abandon its nuclear ambitions:

Libya agreed to remove its weapons-grade materials and equipment shortly after a 2003 incident in which the U.S. government intercepted a ship bound for that country with Pakistani-made black-market centrifuges. For six years, Libyan officials complied with U.S.-led international efforts to dismantle the program. In November of last year, when officials without notice halted the dismantling process, the Libyans were down to their last 5.2 kilograms--not enough to make a conventional weapon, but sufficient for a dirty bomb.* A few days later, the U.S. embassy was contacted by Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi. The son of Muammar al-Qaddafi, Saif is widely seen as Libya's great hope for reform should he win out against his more conservative brother, Mutassim, and succeed their father. But on that day, Saif told the U.S. ambassador to Libya that he was "fed up" with the U.S.  (emphasis mine)

Now, I can’t be sure that my visa was denied because of the US passport – but the timing of incident is a little more than coincidental. And anyway, it satisfies my curiosity as to what happened.

Wikileaks Strikes - World Ends - Film at 11

This blog, more or less successfully, keeps to foreign policy and development matters (though not much on the latter as I’d like to keep my job until I find something in the private sector that is not funded by some government).  To the extent that Wikileaks touches on foreign policy, I am happy to address issues and revelations that are exposed in their publication of official documents.

However, let me first say this (caveat - I loathe US Republican congressman Peter King, the ranking member of the House of Representatives' Homeland Security Committee, and virtually everything he and his fanatic, screw- the- country-we-want- to- be- in- power party stand for):

Legally, it might be in the future for Wikileaks to be labeled as an international terrorist.  Although I do not see Wikileaks being designated as a foreign terrorist organization - difficult at best to prove since the criteria to be applied are narrow; nevertheless, the criteria for applying penalties for international terrorism are not so tight (I happen to think they are far too broad – but the law is the law).  The definition of "international terrorism" states that the activities must be "dangerous to human life" and "influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion".    If brought to court, any reasonably competent lawyer should be able to mount a vigorous and probably successful case against the application.  But maybe not. That’s not the point. 

 

The point is that classified documents that could harm the government and affect foreign policy in the short-term have been published.  I would expect the necessary actions against those who did it and they should be willing to accept the consequences of those actions.  If you’re going to be a revolutionary or are so upset with the current order that it is necessary to undertake actions that, though possibly illegal may change the order, that’s great.  Don’t whine, however, if the forces of order come after you.

Ok. Having gotten that bit of moralizing out of the way, I have to say that from what I’ve read so far, the revelations are not so astounding. Saudi Arabia wants the US to “cut off the head of the snake” by taking out Iran?  Wow. Saudi Arabia’s government is a prime target of Iran from a geopolitical and religious standpoint so their position is not so surprising.  Interesting to note, though, how many Arab governments are all for an attack on Iran – by someone else, of course.  

Is it surprising that US foreign policy advisers are unsure of the direction and intentions of the government in Ankara?  So is everyone else, including its neighbors who are none too eager to fall under the sway of a new Ottoman Empire. 

 

I personally liked the reference to the Russian leadership team as Batman and Robin.  Wikileaks strikes again.

Frankly, so far, the fact that diplomats say things in private that are not reported in public should not be the cause for earth shattering tremors.

Weekend Quick Hits - Korea, Wikileaks, START

China is stepping up to control the dangerous situation on the Korean peninsula - and if you don't think it is dangerous keep in mind that the political atmosphere in Seoul is toxic and another attack by the North Koreans may not be met with great restraint. However, this remark by its Foreign Ministry is an interesting example of how China views a US carrier battle group steaming around its front yard:

We oppose any military act by any party conducted in China's exclusive economic zone without approval.

From an international law standpoint, China is not on shaky ground here. There is no ground. If China somehow claiming that the Yellow Sea is off limits to any naval units then the Foreign Ministry in Beijing needs to go back to school.  I prefer to think this is for domestic consumption which is fine, but inherently dangerous as it sets up the reply: "Or else, what?" resulting in the loss of face from the ultimate climb down.

On another front, Wikileaks is about to publish another release which even the US is warning will contain some embarrassing documents including, it seems, US support for the PKK, Turkish support for al Qaeda supporters in Iraq and some unflattering characterizations of Russian leadership.  Of course, this is as yet speculation and it could very well be that the US was talking to the PKK - which is a terrorist organization but secular and opponents to the Kurdish Hezbollah which works with al Qaeda. This is called realpolitik. The idea that Turkey officially supports al Qaeda is absurd merely because it would involve the military which is not known for supporting non-secular movements.  Nevertheless, this could be fun. Really.

And entering the world of he terminally stupid (the US Republican party), Senator Richard Lugar (R - Indiana) one of the last of the breed with brains, had to warn members of the lizard party that the failure to ratify the treaty could have drastic consequences for other facets of U.S.-Russia nuclear cooperation -- especially the Nunn-Lugar effort to secure loose nuclear materials throughout the former Soviet Union. If START fails, the cooperation between the United States and Russia on securing loose nukes could be imperiled, representing an even bigger risk for national security, Lugar said.

The money quote:

There are still thousands of missiles out there. You better get that through your heads.

China, Credibility on the Line

Now that South Korea's defence minister has resigned, what will be the next step?  China is the direct beneficiary, if that is the correct term, to the attack by North Korea on the South.  Beneficiary because it is an opportunity to repair its damaged credibility in the region as a leader by taking some action with its ally. As it is, China will be terribly embarrassed, and not a little bit angry, with the movement of a US carrier task force into the South China Sea - something it has condemned in the past as a provocation should it ever happen - again. This is a gutsy move by the Obama administration to pressure China into action. Maybe it will work.

Nevertheless, the infantile, deadly antics of the lunatics in Pyongyang in and of themselves may finally rub out China's patience, with the help of the George Washington battle group.

Russia Plans Massive Population Shift - Development Agencies Begin Drooling

Get your attention?

This is about a week old, but Agence-France-Press (behind subscription wall) has reported that Russia plans a “major population shake-up”. If that sounds alarming – well, it isn’t. Aside from a misleading headline which, I must admit, prompted me to open the article, the population shake-up is in the form of a policy that hopes to reverse the Stalin era effort to urbanize everything that was not cemented in place already.


A new, not-so-secret, government paper recommends a plan to concentrate the bulk of Russia’s people in 20 urban centers rather than scattered across the country. The document says that developing small towns with a population of less than 100,000 people (90 percent of Russia's towns) had no perspective in the future and conditions should be created to speed up migration from small towns to larger centers. The document warned, however, that if the process was carried out in a disorganized fashion there could be serious risks for the state due to imbalances between regions. I’d add – among other things.

In perhaps one of the biggest understatement of the year, a government official said “Changing the map of the country is a necessary but not simple task which needs to be done very carefully as any overreaction could lead to a fight for urban resources".

Why is this at all relevant to anything – I mean aside from the shear scope of the concept which seems very Stalinesque in nature?

Think of the development assistance Moscow may source to implement a project of this magnitude. The World Bank, USAID and EC could be at the feeding trough for decades assisting the Russians in the planning and execution of the plan. And then, mid-way, re-thinking, re-designing and re-implementing the project – something development agencies have perfected over the past thirty or forty year under the theory that there is never enough time to do it right, but always enough to do it twice.

Seriously, once President Medvedev announces the secret plan I will bet the ranch that international development professionals – from experts in administration, transportation, land policy and urban planning to environmental protection and family planning – will be beating down all the Kremlin gates.

Hell, it’ll be like an annuity.

Tantrum Time in Hermit Land

Speculation is flooding the airwaves regarding why the North Koreans decided to unload over 200 artillery shells at a populated South Korean island just outside the sea border.  More important than the fact of the event, is the motivation.

It is unlikely that the sole basis of killing South Koreans was to force the party of six back to talks. It is also not a particularly wise method of obtaining more food aid following this season's disastrous crop, although it fits with the usual infantile "pay attention to me NOW" tantrums of the government.  After all, the sinking of the Chon An was far more serious. So, why now and why a conventional attack as opposed to, say, testing a nuclear weapon (which is coming)?  Pyongyang may be pushing the limits of what constitutes "acceptable" provocations to conventional attacks to determine how far it can raise the threshold of a response from the South.  If the latter, then the situation becomes exceedingly dangerous. South Korea has every ability to inflict a great deal of pain on the North Koreans but is unlikely to do so because of the risk of a war.  But that restraint is unlikely to continue for long and if there is no military response, what does South Korea know that we don't?

Reports are that Korean ports are empty of warships.  There are at least 50 major combat ships heading toward the Korean coast including elements of the US 7th Fleet- something that probably puts it on the top ten list of  least favourite things in Beijing. Having a fleet of that size parked in your front yard is not designed to improve anyone's mood.  And, in the end, China is key. This sort of thing makes them uncomfortable.But loss of credibility as the regional leader is worse. China needs to step up and deal with its ally.

Where the Spies Are? Afghanistan Scam

Image by Tails for Whales via Flickr

This would be very funny if it were not for its implications for the rapidly building futility of the muddled Afghanistan mission. 

What can possibly be said when senior political and intelligence officials pass large amounts of money to and conduct talks with – in the same room – a senior Taliban official who, it turns out, is not who he said he was.  Months ago, the Taliban leader in Quetta, Mullah Omar, repeatedly stated that no such talks were occurring between the Taliban and NATO or Karzai.  Now we know why – because the guys running the show don’t know what they are doing.  The imposter must be laughing all the way to the bank with his cash and whatever information he gathered for whatever organization he works. 



You can't make this stuff up. Feel free to suggest captions to the picture.