Out of Africa...Again

The Nile Rising from Lake Victoria - Uganda

I am almost out of Uganda after four previous attempts in the last two weeks.  Actually, I found Kampala can be very pleasant once out of the downtown area – lots of green and flowers and not far from a resort on Lake Victoria – built and operated by an Indian – that screams money.  The photo is of the source of the White Nile, which merges with the Blue in Sudan and heads to the Med. 

The economic dichotomy here between the “haves” and “have-nots” is, to say the least, wide – but equally interesting is the level of economic activity by everyone.  If there is a vacant piece of dirt along a busy road someone has established a shop.  Furniture, chickens, tiny grocery shops, iron mongers, car washes – anything that anyone needs.  Local roads are unpaved and look like the surface of the moon – but passable.  Hawkers walk among the truly dreadful traffic jams (usually caused when the traffic police take control) selling electric mosquito swatters the size of small tennis rackets, food, maps – everything.  Everyone is almost too polite.   

This then is a country ruled by one person essentially for more than 25 years.  Rising fuel and food prices have last week resulted in demonstrations which have not ended well for the demonstrators.  The leading opposition politician was shot in the arm while leading a “walk to work” protest and then whisked away.  I don’t know and certainly have not been here long enough to make any judgment on how this may end. 

With the unpaved roads, poor housing in many areas and high food prices, it is obscene that the government is paying Russia over $1.5 billion for top-of-the-line fighter jets to combat terrorists from Somalia.  Terrorists are not fought with an air-force – more could be spent on police and border patrols not to mention paving every road in the country.  And one bombing last year does not make a terrorist campaign. 

Anyway, I’m leaving for Qatar on Thursday and will miss the place a little. 

The Upcoming Surprise War

Image via Wikipedia

It will be a surprise in the West, at least.  Get ready for a vicious little war in Sudan that will spill over into Uganda and Ethiopia. And it will be about oil.

Come January, the independence referendum in southern Sudan will either have been approved resoundingly or Khartoum will delay the vote.  Both will result in war and if anyone thinks that Darfur is bad - well, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The proposed border is vague, to say the least. The oil resources straddle the border. Northern Sudan has been at war in the south for three decades. Over 1 million people have died. Both the north and south depend on the oil revenues while China and India depend on the oil. The rest of the planet is distracted - there will be no US or EU intervention.  The African Union is weak and broke.

The factors coming together - oil, religion, geography and no prospect of outside intervention - are deadly.  The importance of avoiding a major conflict cannot be overstated.  If Uganda and Ethiopia become destabilized the prospects of penetration by trans-national Islamic militants is huge and their own internal problems will be made worse.  Loss of oil production will force China and India to look elsewhere - and prices will go up.

Three months and counting.