I haven't posted for about a week. I'm wrapping up my work in Ghana - which involves considerable pandering and report writing. Wheels up Friday night to Kyiv. Then perhaps to Bishkek. Definitely to Moscow to see what's up and then perhaps to Vienna. Hope to stop at Askania Nova in Ukraine (good place to go to see the steppe as it existed 3000 years ago). Will get back to acerbic comments next week.
Thought for the week - on US politicos - Michelle Bachmann is a dope...your constituents who voted for you should be embarrassed. Is it possible for GOPers to be embarrassed? Oh, yeah...
Second thought for the week - is Tymoshenko a lock in the next election?
Next stop Kyiv.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Moldovan moves
President Veronin of Moldova has done something I would not have expected - requested a much faster EU accession process. This will not sit well with Russia, I assume. The EU response will be interesting.
SME Development in Ghana
The Daily Graphic (no link available) in Accra reported that the University of Ghana Business School had launched a unit for an Enterprise Development Service to help SME owners and operators to improve managerial skills and "become more business oriented". It is intended to link the public and private sectors to find solutions to the problems faced by SME's.
For Ghana, this is an important development. In Accra, merchants set up kiosks everywhere selling fruit, carvings, plastic furniture and anything else that can be sold. The news does not report whether there will be any follow-on support. I hope the IFC, which funded the start-up of the program, has a plan for sustainability and support to new entrepreneurs. The news article does not say, but a program to monitor and provide follow-on assistance would be an important aspect of any SME program.
Another question is whether this program can or will be coordinated with an overall economic development program. A serious problem in Ghana is the fragility of the land tenure. Indeed, the growth of slums is alarming as the urbanization of the country accelerates. One "city" of approximately 300,000 was not even recognized on a map until recently. Land tenure is very weak, to say the least. Consequently, potential entrepreneurs cannot use their assets to obtain any credit to start, much less grow, a business.
The linkage of the type of training now offered by the business school of the University of Ghana with other needs is critical to its success. It would be a pity if the training resulted in a brain-drain or inability to put those skills to use.
For Ghana, this is an important development. In Accra, merchants set up kiosks everywhere selling fruit, carvings, plastic furniture and anything else that can be sold. The news does not report whether there will be any follow-on support. I hope the IFC, which funded the start-up of the program, has a plan for sustainability and support to new entrepreneurs. The news article does not say, but a program to monitor and provide follow-on assistance would be an important aspect of any SME program.
Another question is whether this program can or will be coordinated with an overall economic development program. A serious problem in Ghana is the fragility of the land tenure. Indeed, the growth of slums is alarming as the urbanization of the country accelerates. One "city" of approximately 300,000 was not even recognized on a map until recently. Land tenure is very weak, to say the least. Consequently, potential entrepreneurs cannot use their assets to obtain any credit to start, much less grow, a business.
The linkage of the type of training now offered by the business school of the University of Ghana with other needs is critical to its success. It would be a pity if the training resulted in a brain-drain or inability to put those skills to use.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Threesome
Armenia and Turkey have announced a protocol to normalize relations. So far, so good. However, the protocol has simply been initialed and both parties need their respective parliaments to approve. That may be difficult in Armenia, and not so hard in Turkey. Another 'however' is the participation of Baku and its fears that Turkey is about to hang it out to dry over the NK region. Turkey will need to do something to calm them down. Their threats to cut of the gas and oil pipelines to Turkey and route them through Russia is probably not serious - they simply don't like the Russians. Nevertheless, the concerns over concessions on the NK - particularly if they involve giving up any claims - are real and need to be addressed.
As pointed out in this blog and elsewhere, an open border arrangement with Turkey is a big win for Armenia. It would open up trade routes and give Armenia access to ports other than those in Georgia. Increased economic activity would also, finally, provide support to all the economic and social development assistance programs that have been operating in Armenia since independence.
Yerevan will, of course, need to shrug off all the California Armenian patriots who comfortably oppose from their air-conditioned homes any dealings with Americas largest ally in the middle east - and a democratic one at that - unless Turkey agrees to refer to the death and destruction of Armenians and their villages during the waning days of the Ottomon Empire as a genocide. This will never happen and the Turkish proposal to set up a commission to study the period is the next best step.
Let's understand a couple of things. Ottomon policy was to punish independence minded Armenians for joining with the Russian Empire during World War I. This was official policy carried out to the extreme by units in the field resulting in the death of perhaps over 1.5 million ethnic Armenians. For Armenia itself, it is clearly important for Turkey to recognize the atrocities committed by Ottomon officers and soldiers on orders from Constantinople. If Turkey can find a way to do so, and if Armenia ultimately understands that their isolation and geographic position will keep the country poverty-stricken, at war with its neighbors and dependent on Russia, then a compromise will be reached.
In the meantime, the diaspora in their comfortable homes and relatively easy lives should keep to themselves and let those on the front lines resolve their differences.
As pointed out in this blog and elsewhere, an open border arrangement with Turkey is a big win for Armenia. It would open up trade routes and give Armenia access to ports other than those in Georgia. Increased economic activity would also, finally, provide support to all the economic and social development assistance programs that have been operating in Armenia since independence.
Yerevan will, of course, need to shrug off all the California Armenian patriots who comfortably oppose from their air-conditioned homes any dealings with Americas largest ally in the middle east - and a democratic one at that - unless Turkey agrees to refer to the death and destruction of Armenians and their villages during the waning days of the Ottomon Empire as a genocide. This will never happen and the Turkish proposal to set up a commission to study the period is the next best step.
Let's understand a couple of things. Ottomon policy was to punish independence minded Armenians for joining with the Russian Empire during World War I. This was official policy carried out to the extreme by units in the field resulting in the death of perhaps over 1.5 million ethnic Armenians. For Armenia itself, it is clearly important for Turkey to recognize the atrocities committed by Ottomon officers and soldiers on orders from Constantinople. If Turkey can find a way to do so, and if Armenia ultimately understands that their isolation and geographic position will keep the country poverty-stricken, at war with its neighbors and dependent on Russia, then a compromise will be reached.
In the meantime, the diaspora in their comfortable homes and relatively easy lives should keep to themselves and let those on the front lines resolve their differences.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Governance, Corruption and Aid
As my time in Ghana is winding down to the last 12 days, I've had some time to think about the effectiveness of aid programs. During the past three months, the usual talk in the aid agencies has been one of "buy in" and "ownership" with very - if any - discussion on governance and corruption.
Governance was the word of the day in the 90s but is strangely absent from the dialogue between donors and central governments these days - much less at the level of local governments. The simple fact is that aid funds are largely wasted with poor local governance and corruption down through every level of government. This fact has been well know and documented for over a decade.
Does Africa need aid? Most certainly, but past successes have been spotty and with the global financial crises it is more important than ever to refocus on governance and anticorruption. Aid should be strongly tied to improvements in these areas - and not just for supeficial improvements akin to smoke and mirrors.
Real connections must also be made at the local level where economic and social improvements can be readily seen which is often not the case when aid agencies routinely only work at the ministerial level.
Finally, some aid programs and projects have clearly been designed by people who have spent very little time in the field. A couple of weeks to get the lay of the land is not enough time to draft an effective program. All projects should have substantial input from those who have been recently in the target country for at least three months. They know it, academics and bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington do not.
Governance was the word of the day in the 90s but is strangely absent from the dialogue between donors and central governments these days - much less at the level of local governments. The simple fact is that aid funds are largely wasted with poor local governance and corruption down through every level of government. This fact has been well know and documented for over a decade.
Does Africa need aid? Most certainly, but past successes have been spotty and with the global financial crises it is more important than ever to refocus on governance and anticorruption. Aid should be strongly tied to improvements in these areas - and not just for supeficial improvements akin to smoke and mirrors.
Real connections must also be made at the local level where economic and social improvements can be readily seen which is often not the case when aid agencies routinely only work at the ministerial level.
Finally, some aid programs and projects have clearly been designed by people who have spent very little time in the field. A couple of weeks to get the lay of the land is not enough time to draft an effective program. All projects should have substantial input from those who have been recently in the target country for at least three months. They know it, academics and bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington do not.
Russian War on Georgia
According to the AP Russia armour is now only 25 miles from Tbilisi. Last week 22 ships of the Black Sea Fleet steamed out of Sevastopol with a vanguard of troop landing ships. The stationing of troops outside of their zone as agreed upon with the EU is a dangerous situation and Russia clearly intends to eliminate the indepence of Georgia through military threats, if not an outright invasion.
The EU will protest and do nothing - just as it always has done. The US does not have the flexibility to intervene in any military way, nor should it. However, Russia desperately wants a new relationship with Washington and it should be made clear to Moscow that the "reset" button will indeed be reset if they invade.
Saakashvili must begin to negotiate a way out with the opposition which will likely mean his resignation. This might preclude a Russian invasion. He is ineffective as President of Georgia and provides Russia an excuse for invading. If he refuses to negotiate and expects help from either the EU or the US once Russian tanks start heading for Tbilisi, his sand castle will collapse and not only will Georgia cease to exist except as a province of Moscow, Russia will have full control of the oil pipeline in Georgia so as to maintain and increase its energy stranglehold on Europe.
Once Georgia is removed as an irritant, Russia will turn its attention to Ukraine which has elections coming in October. They have already illegally provided Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and have used that as a pretext before for military action.
It's reality check time. Russia is not an ally but an enemy of democracy and is reverting to its imperial ways.
The EU will protest and do nothing - just as it always has done. The US does not have the flexibility to intervene in any military way, nor should it. However, Russia desperately wants a new relationship with Washington and it should be made clear to Moscow that the "reset" button will indeed be reset if they invade.
Saakashvili must begin to negotiate a way out with the opposition which will likely mean his resignation. This might preclude a Russian invasion. He is ineffective as President of Georgia and provides Russia an excuse for invading. If he refuses to negotiate and expects help from either the EU or the US once Russian tanks start heading for Tbilisi, his sand castle will collapse and not only will Georgia cease to exist except as a province of Moscow, Russia will have full control of the oil pipeline in Georgia so as to maintain and increase its energy stranglehold on Europe.
Once Georgia is removed as an irritant, Russia will turn its attention to Ukraine which has elections coming in October. They have already illegally provided Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and have used that as a pretext before for military action.
It's reality check time. Russia is not an ally but an enemy of democracy and is reverting to its imperial ways.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)