Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Iran Recount

The BBC reported ten minutes ago that a recount has been ordered by the Guardian Council in Iran is interesting, but I am not prepared to change my opinion that nothing will change and Ahmadinejad will still be president after the recount.

Demonstrations and similarities to 1979 notwithstanding, there is no credible evidence reported so far that the clerics are going to allow the reversal of the election results.

Of course, Ahmadinejad's victory makes him powerful and if one is a believer in conspiracy theories it could be argued that the Guardian Council, hardly a liberal entity, is more concerned about Ahmadinejad than Mir-Hoseyn Mousavi - himself not a liberal. Ahmadinejad is not enthusiastically supported by the clerics who may now view him as a threat since it is likely that he will engineer a political cleansing under the guise of an anti-corruption program. That cleansing could include lots of clerics. Will the Guardian Council order a new election?

I don't believe in conspiracy theories. But, Western interpretation of Iranian politics have been largely wrong since 1979. The BBC and others may be the victim of smoke and mirrors.

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