Saturday, June 20, 2009

It Has Begun...

Cold War ClockImage by ckaiserca via Flickr

BBC reports that the crack-down on demonstrations in Iran has begun. Regimes don't last long, historically, when they rely on a combination of repression, one party rule, experience cratering economies and international opprobrium. Despite the seemingly endless Cold War, keep in mind that the experiment with fake socialism - Leninism and Stalinism - lasted only 70 years. That may seem like a lot, but it is hardly any time at all from a historical perspective. This is something the old, grey religious "leaders" of the Islamic Republic should study. Sooner or later, they will, like other dictators, vanish. They could be replaced by a stronger dictatorship led by a successor to Ahmadinejad. But they will have only a shadow of their former power. He is likely to take them on.

Ahmadinejad types however, as he is very capable of proving, make serious mistakes as well and although Iran is entitled to build nuclear plants for generating electricity (a fact frequently ignored)what will happen if they decide to build nuclear weapons and delivery systems is something else entirely. If they do, then they should bear in mind that ever since 1945, nuclear weapons have never dissuaded an opponent from launching a war. The side with the weapons has never seen fit to use them no matter how dire the situation seemed. Ask Israel. And if Iran was to use one, well...

No more posts on Iran until it's over or a revolution begins.

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